Politikwissenschaft Germany and the foreign policies of Norway and Sweden - strategic challenges and opportunities Inaugural - Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Philosophischen Fakultät der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität zu Münster (Westf.) vorgelegt von Elisabeth Tanev aus Oslo, Norwegen 2012 Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 11. Februar 2010 Dekan der Philosophischen Fakultät: Prof. Dr. Christian Pietsch Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Reinhard Meyers Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Johannes Varwick Contents List of Abbreviations v List of Figures vii List of Tables viii Introduction 1 I. Nordic Security 5 1. General conditions of Nordic security 7 2. Germany as a strategic partner? 17 3. The foreign policies of Norway and Sweden 33 3.1. Historical developments . 35 3.2. Security and defence cooperation . 42 3.2.1. Norway ............................ 42 3.2.2. Sweden............................. 47 3.3. National defence structure and budget . 52 3.3.1. Norway ............................ 52 3.3.2. Sweden............................. 56 3.4. European policy . 62 3.4.1. Norway ............................ 62 3.4.2. Sweden............................. 74 3.5. Other aspects of Norwegian and Swedish foreign policy . 86 3.5.1. Norway ............................ 86 3.5.2. Sweden............................. 89 ii Contents 3.6. Conclusions . 91 4. Strategic challenges and opportunities 95 4.1. Norway ................................ 95 4.1.1. Economic and security interests . 106 4.1.2. Factors of strategic importance and threat perceptions . 116 4.1.3. The strategic environment . 123 4.1.4. The necessity of political and military allies . 130 4.2. Sweden................................. 137 4.2.1. Economic and security interests . 143 4.2.2. Factors of strategic importance and threat perceptions . 152 4.2.3. The strategic environment . 158 4.2.4. The necessity of political and military allies . 165 4.3. Conclusions . 167 5. Conclusions and further considerations 171 II. Theoretical implications 173 1. International society theory 175 2. What are the English School’s arguments? 181 2.1. Radicalised Revolutionism . 183 2.2. The good international citizen . 185 2.2.1. Pluralist principles . 187 2.2.2. Solidarist principles . 188 2.2.3. Universally applicable principles . 189 3. Further considerations 191 III. Germany’s foreign policy on Northern Europe 195 1. German foreign policy 197 1.1. Historical classification of German foreign policy . 197 1.1.1. The strategy of Westintegration . 199 Contents iii 1.1.2. European policy . 203 1.1.3. Ostpolitik and policy of détente . 209 1.1.4. The German reunification . 216 1.1.5. Foreign relations with Norway and Sweden . 218 1.1.5.1. Norway . 219 1.1.5.2. Sweden . 223 1.2. Basic principles and structures . 226 1.2.1. European developments . 226 1.2.2. Normative foundation and structural preconditions . 228 1.3. Actors and institutions . 237 1.3.1. The German Federal President . 237 1.3.2. The Bundestag . 237 1.3.3. Federal states and Bundesrat . 242 1.3.4. Federal chancellery . 245 1.3.5. The Federal Ministries . 247 1.3.6. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Auswärtiges Amt) . 248 1.3.7. Bundeswehr . 251 1.3.8. Political parties . 256 1.4. Conclusions and Outlook . 258 2. Case Studies 263 2.1. Germany and the Arctic . 265 2.1.1. Case 1: Arctic sustainable development . 265 2.1.1.1. Introduction . 265 2.1.1.1.1. The environmental hazards of the Arctic 266 2.1.1.1.2. Arctic governance . 268 2.1.1.2. Case description and dependent variable . 277 2.1.1.3. Independent variables and policy assessment . 283 2.2. Germany and the Baltic Sea Region . 286 2.2.1. Case 2: The Baltic states . 287 2.2.1.1. Case description and dependent variable . 287 2.2.1.2. Independent variables and policy assessment . 302 2.2.2. Case 3: Kaliningrad . 305 2.2.2.1. Introduction . 305 iv Contents 2.2.2.2. Case description and dependent variable . 307 2.2.2.3. Independent variables and policy assessment . 312 2.2.3. Case 4: Regional cooperation . 314 2.2.3.1. Introduction . 314 2.2.3.2. Case description and dependent variable . 316 2.2.3.3. Independent variables and policy assessment . 321 2.3. Germany and Russia . 323 2.3.1. Case 5: Russia’s integration in Europe . 323 2.3.1.1. Introduction . 323 2.3.1.2. Case description and dependent variable . 326 2.3.1.2.1. The bilateral relations . 326 2.3.1.2.2. EU policy on Russia . 334 2.3.1.3. Independent variables and policy assessment . 341 2.4. Conclusions and further considerations . 344 Conclusions 347 Bibliography ix List of Abbreviations AA Auswärtiges Amt (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Germany) AC Arctic Council AEPS Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program BSR Baltic Sea Region BSSSC Baltic Sea States Subregional Cooperation CBSS Council of the Baltic Sea States CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CLCS Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf CLRTAP Convention on Long-Range Transported Air Pollution CSCE Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe CSR Common Strategy on Russia (EU) EC European Community EU European Union EEA European Economic Area EEC European Economic Community EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EFTA European Free Trade Association EMU Economic and Monetary Union EPC European Political Cooperation ESA EFTA Surveillance Authority ESDI European Security and Defence Identity ESDP European Security and Defence Policy EP Northern Dimension of the European Union EUND Northern Dimension of the European Union vi List of Abbreviations FM Foreign Minister FRG Federal Republic of Germany GDR German Democratic Republic GNC Gas Negotiating Committee (Norway) ICTY International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia IMO International Maritime Organisation ISAF International Security Assistance Force for Afghanistan LNG Liquefied Natural Gas NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation OEF Operation Enduring Freedom OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries OSCE Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe PfP Partnership for Peace (NATO) PCA Partnership and Cooperation Agreement PM Prime Minister PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team (NATO, Afghanistan) PSC Political and Security Committee (EU) SEA Single European Act UGS U.S. Geological Service UN United Nations UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea WEU Western European Union WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction List of Figures I.1. Russia’s energy resources in the Barents Sea. (Source: Sherpa Konsult)................................ 11 I.1. Norway and Sweden. (Source: sitesatlas.com) . 34 I.2. Development lines in Norwegian foreign policy. 92 I.3. Development lines in Swedish foreign policy. 93 I.1. Norwegian offshore areas. (Source: Norway’s official site for infor- mation about seafood safety, fisheries and aquaculture management) 96 I.2. North European Natural Gas Network. (Source: ec.europa.eu) . 138 I.3. Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea Region. (Source: wikimedia.org) . 150 I.4. The Baltic Sea Region. (Source: nordregio.se) . 160 III.1.Main shipping lines, settlements and protected areas in the Arctic. (Source: nordregio.se) . 267 III.2.Resources in the Arctic. (Source: nordregio.se) . 275 III.3.Germany’s natural gas imports from 1991 to 2008 in petajoul. (Data source: bmwi.de) . 331 List of Tables I.1. Trade balance of Germany with Norway and Sweden (in million EUR)2008. .............................. 26 I.2. Share of natural gas imports to Germany for selected years. 28 I.1. Norway’s interest portfolio arranged due to international level, or- ganisations of importance and reference to Russia (R), the EU (EU) and/or the USA (US). The interests are specified by the font as follows: vital , very important , important. 112 I.2. Sweden’s interest portfolio arranged due to international level, or- ganisations of importance and reference to Russia (R), the EU (EU) and/or the USA (US). The interests are specified by the font as follows: vital , very important .................... 147 I.3. Challenges and opportunities facing Norwegian foreign policy. 169 I.4. Challenges and opportunities facing Swedish foreign policy. 170 III.1.Case studies assessing Germany’s importance. 264 Introduction The initial point of this thesis was the working paper of the Norwegian diplomat Sverre Jervell who, writing in 2003, suggested that the Norwegian foreign and se- curity policy should finally recognise the changed conditions for national security policy since the end of the Cold War and choose Germany as its European strate- gic partner. 1 This indicates that Germany has become a more important actor in Europe, a topic thoroughly debated over the last two decades. It has, however, hardly been analysed from a Nordic point of view. The aim of the thesis is thus to further the understanding of the possibilities and impediments of Germany in Europe. Why is Germany important, and how important is Germany, to the strategic challenges and opportunities facing the foreign policies of Norway and Sweden? What limitations exist in regards to Germany’s role in Northern Eu- rope? The conclusions reached on Germany’s importance to Norway and Sweden are also an evaluation of German foreign policy as well as recommendations on the further development of German policy in northern Europe. In an even larger context, this should also highlight the EU’s role in northern Europe as the foreign policy direction of Germany is decisive for the overall European developments. A foreign perspective on German foreign policy will hopefully give new arguments to the discussion on Germany’s role in Europe and ultimately new insights on European cooperation. The first question coming up is thus where to search for Germany’s importance, in the bilateral relations or in the larger context of the challenges and opportu- nities of Norwegian and Swedish foreign policies? Good bilateral relations are rather the reason why Germany is considered in the first place, in addition to Germany’s economic power and leading role in the EU.