NM Perspectives Vahid Majidi, DASD(NM)

UNCLASSIFIED

Emerging WMD threats and the Proliferation of WMD material: NM Perspectives

Vahid Majidi, DASD(NM) March 2015

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

National Preparedness Intelligence: Collection, Dissemination, Integration, Analysis and Action

Preparedness

Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery

Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment

NCB/NM Efforts (Deterrence, Physical Security, International Engagements, Technical Capabilities) DoD Efforts (Planning, Programs, Policy, Operations) Interagency/National Effort (Joint TF, Regional, Multi-jurisdictional)

* Response is both following an incident or response to informaon leading to interdicon UNCLASSIFIED Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Does Industry Have A Role?

§ Infrastructure & Vulnerability – Electrical Grid – Internet § Subject Matter Expertise – Cyber, Physical Sciences, Manufacturing

§ Material Source – Chem, Bio, Rad, Energetic Material

§ Unique Response Capabilities – Deep Water Horizon (BP)

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs 3 UNCLASSIFIED USG CWMD Team Construct

DOS DNI DOE

NCTC DOC OSD

NCPC DIA CCMDs

WH Joint Staff Treas DHS

Services CIA DoD IAEA DTRA/ INTERPOL CCWMD UN 1540 NSA STIG FBI GICNT Defense Global Partnership Agencies Nuclear Summit WINS Bi-Lateral Multi-Lateral Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 4 Commerce, DOD, DOE, DOS, FBI, Treasury UNCLASSIFIED

DOD, DOE, DOS DOD, DHS, FBI Intelligence Intelligence International Partners International Partners Interdiction Nonproliferation

UNCLASSIFIED Counterproliferation 5 UNCLASSIFIED CP Discussion

§ Historical Perspective § Case Study § Counterproliferation Programs § Attribution Process § Community Partnership

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 6 UNCLASSIFIED Manhattan Project

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 7 UNCLASSIFIED Nuclear Programs

N. Korea Iran Libya Pakistan Iraq China Russia US

UK France

South Africa 1994 India 1942 1950s 1970s 1980s

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 8 Proliferation Examples

§ Industrial Nexus – Intentional – Unintentional

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs 9 UNCLASSIFIED Proliferation Examples

Ohio Russia

Libya

Netherlands: Urenco Iran

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 10 UNCLASSIFIED Dr. Gernot Zippe (1917-2008)

Invented the Zippe-Type centrifuge: The easiest way to make fuel for reactors and weapons.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 11 UNCLASSIFIED Dr. Gernot Zippe

§ Born and raised in Austria

§ In 1945 he was kidnapped and held prisoner in the Soviet Union where he was ordered to develop a centrifuge program.

§ Having done as he was asked, he was freed by the Soviets (1957)!

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 12 UNCLASSIFIED Dr. Gernot Zippe

§ 1957, Dr. Zippe flew to the United States and set up shop at the University of Virginia. § He managed to recreate the Russian centrifuge and returned to Europe in 1960.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 13 UNCLASSIFIED Dr. Gernot Zippe

§ In the 1960s, Dr. Zippe switched the rotor material from aluminum to maraging steel to allow for higher spin rates. § Rotors were made longer, which increased the collection of U-235.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 14 UNCLASSIFIED Dr. Gernot Zippe

§ In the 1970's, Urenco, a new European consortium for making nuclear fuel, adopted Zippe-type designs. § Dr. A. Q. Khan worked as a consultant at a Urenco plant and stole the designs.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 15 UNCLASSIFIED Dr. A. Q. Khan Proliferation

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 16 UNCLASSIFIED

National Preparedness Intelligence: Collection, Dissemination, Integration, Analysis and Action

Preparedness

Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery

Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment

* Response is both following an incident or response to informaon leading to interdicon Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 17 UNCLASSIFIED Iraq Insurgents Employ Chlorine in Bomb Attacks: February 22, 2007

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 18 UNCLASSIFIED Gang Arrested Trying to Sell Enriched Uranium: November 29, 2007

Two Hungarians and a Ukrainian man were arrested by the Slovakian police as they tried to sell the uranium.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 19 UNCLASSIFIED Preventing WMD Material Misappropriation

Facility

X-Int

Network

Infrastructure

Support Finance

Materials

Preparedness

Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment 20 UNCLASSIFIED

National Preparedness Intelligence: Collection, Dissemination, Integration, Analysis and Action

Preparedness

Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery

Policy & Planning Training/Exercises Countermeasures Intelligence Assessment Tiered Deployment

Develop Acquire Materials Develop Deploy Concept and Equipment Weapon Weapon

Formulate Inial Acquire Fissile Process Fissile Design Material Material

Acquire Explosives Make Weapon or Propellants Components

Acquire Materials, Equipment, Test Explosive and and Components Assembly System

Assemble Deploy and Weapon Detonate

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 22 UNCLASSIFIED The 5 Ds of CWMD Physical Security

Adversary Surveillance, Plans and Preparation Intel & Warning

Penetrate Cross Security Penetrate Secondary Cross Secondary Enter Facility Boundaries Area Area Area WMD Material Task 1 Task 5 Task 4 Task 2 Task 3 Task 6 Task 7

Deter Detect Delay Deny Defeat

We only have to be successful once; the adversary has to be successful at every point.

Preparedness

Radiological Detection System (RDS) § Detect, classify, and measure radioactive materials – Replaces legacy RADIAC meters – Sensitivity covers operational and occupational levels and quantities § Network interoperability – Geographic location data enabled – Autonomous and on-demand data entries, network, and information exchange § Procurement planned for USA, USAF, USMC, USN

Preparedness

PROJECT DISCREET OCULUS § Prompt diagnostics research & development project by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. § Ground-based sensor suite collects prompt outputs of a limited nuclear event in an urban environment. – Measured outputs include seismic, infrasound, overpressure, electromagnetic pulse, gamma radiation, and optical signatures. – Sensor readings sent to the Air Force Technical Applications Center for analysis and reporting.

Preparedness

Harvester Particulate Airborne Collection System (PACS) § Modular air sampling capability tested on C-130 and MQ-9 aircraft. § Post-collection analysis: samples prepared in a deployable clean room, radio-chemical analyses conducted at a lab.

Preparedness

Airborne Radiation Detection & Identification Measurement System (ARDIMS) § Wide-area radiological reconnaissance mapping capability to support ground collection. § Gamma and neutron detection pods mounted on UH-60 displays real-time gross count and dose rate and radiation mapping to inform collections.

Preparedness

Ground Collections Task Force § Collect radioactive debris samples quickly and process, prepare, and package the evidence for transport to national laboratories.

§ Equipment – Mojave suits, boots, booties, gloves, M40 protective masks – Ion chamber gamma detectors – AN/UDR-14 dosimeters – Humvee, GPS/maps, satellite phone – Collection kits, marking kits

Preparedness

Material Weapon

Preparedness

Prevention Protection Mitigation Response* Recovery

Policy & Planning Training/ExercisesAssistant SecretaryCountermeasures of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical,Intelligence and Biological Defense ProgramsAssessment Tiered Deployment 29 Commerce, DOD, DOE, DOS, FBI, Treasury UNCLASSIFIED

DOD, DOE, DOS DOD, DHS, FBI Intelligence Intelligence International Partners International Partners Interdiction Nonproliferation

UNCLASSIFIED Counterproliferation 30 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Response: Scale and Persistence Drives Lead FBI DOD

Mumbai/T (‘08) Syria/Chem (‘14)

600 Sapphire /Nuke (‘94) Spain/E (‘04)

Fukushima/RAD (‘11)

UK/Rad (‘06) W-Africa/Ebola (‘14)

Tiblisi/HEU (‘06 & 09) Phuket-hurricane (‘04)

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED DNI 31 UNCLASSIFIED Highlighting Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

2007: Chlorine Release During Railcar Unloading

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 32 UNCLASSIFIED We all own this problem!!

Industry

Stuff & Expertise

Academia USG

Solution through collaboration.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs UNCLASSIFIED 33