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Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) CRISIL Risk and Infrastructure Solutions Limited Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) Hydrocarbon Vision 2030 for Northeast India Final Report November 2015 Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 3 Background ................................................................................................................................... 23 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 23 Content of this Report ........................................................................................................... 24 Brief Description of Northeast India .............................................................................................. 25 Demographic Profile of Northeast India ................................................................................ 26 Projected Population Growth in Northeast India ................................................................... 34 Macroeconomic Profile of Northeast India ............................................................................ 34 Assam ...................................................................................................................... 34 Arunachal Pradesh .................................................................................................. 35 Manipur .................................................................................................................... 36 Meghalaya ............................................................................................................... 37 Tripura ..................................................................................................................... 37 Mizoram ................................................................................................................... 38 Nagaland ................................................................................................................. 39 Sikkim ...................................................................................................................... 39 Comparison of Per Capita Income in with National average ................................... 40 Financial Inclusion in Northeast India ................................................................................... 40 Oil & Gas Sector Outlook in Northeast India ................................................................................ 42 Sedimentary Basins .............................................................................................................. 42 Hydrocarbon Resources ....................................................................................................... 42 Crude Oil & Gas Discoveries in Northeast India ................................................................... 43 Blocks awarded under Nomination regime .............................................................. 44 Blocks awarded under PSC regime......................................................................... 45 Hydrocarbon Value Chain – North East India ....................................................................... 51 Upstream ................................................................................................................. 52 Midstream ................................................................................................................ 53 Downstream ............................................................................................................. 53 Upstream ...................................................................................................................................... 55 Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production in NER ........................................................................ 55 Current Scenario...................................................................................................... 55 Future Outlook- Expected Production ..................................................................... 57 [iii] Key Issues in upstream sector ................................................................................ 62 Action Areas for Upstream Sector ........................................................................... 63 Zero Phase of Exploration ..................................................................................... 100 Midstream ................................................................................................................................... 102 Crude Oil Pipeline ............................................................................................................... 102 Existing Crude Oil Pipeline Network in Northeast India ........................................ 102 Upcoming Crude Oil Pipeline Network in Northeast India ..................................... 103 Natural Gas Pipelines Network in Northeast India ............................................................. 103 Exiting Natural Gas Pipelines Network in Northeast India .................................... 103 Planned Natural Gas Pipelines Network in Northeast India .................................. 105 Product Pipelines in Northeast India................................................................................... 106 Existing Product Pipelines in Northeast India ........................................................ 106 Upcoming Product Pipelines in Northeast India .................................................... 107 LPG Pipeline network in Northeast India ............................................................... 108 Issues and Challenges ....................................................................................................... 108 Capacity of Pipelines ............................................................................................. 108 Policy Issues .......................................................................................................... 111 Key Action Areas ................................................................................................................ 111 Increase pipeline capacity ..................................................................................... 112 Policy Level Action Areas ...................................................................................... 117 Action Plan .......................................................................................................................... 119 Proposed Energy Corridor .................................................................................................. 123 Suggestions for VGF Model ................................................................................................ 124 Case Study –Public Private Partnership (PPP) Model for Pipelines .................................. 125 Downstream Infrastructure ......................................................................................................... 127 Refining Capacity ................................................................................................................ 127 Existing Refining Capacity in Northeast India ....................................................... 127 Future outlook - expansion of refining capacity in Northeast India ....................... 127 Assessment of future refining capacity in Northeast India .................................... 128 Demand-Supply Assessment of POL Products in Northeast India .................................... 130 Existing demand of POL products in Northeast India............................................ 130 Existing Supply and Consumption of POL products in NER ................................. 131 Future outlook- Demand of POL products by 2030 ............................................... 133 Mapping demand-supply of POL products in Northeast India ............................... 141 [iv] Special Products in NER refineries ....................................................................... 143 Storage of POL Products in Northeast India ......................................................... 147 Demand-Supply Assessment of Natural Gas ..................................................................... 151 Existing Consumption of natural gas in Northeast India ....................................... 151 Future outlook - Gas Demand Estimation ............................................................. 152 Natural Gas Demand-Supply Scenario in Northeast India .................................... 157 Key Issues/ Concerns ......................................................................................................... 157 Refining Capacity and POL Products .................................................................... 157 Natural Gas ............................................................................................................ 160 Key Action Areas ................................................................................................................ 161 Refining Capacity................................................................................................... 161 Increasing consumption of POL Products ............................................................. 162 Increase Demand of Natural Gas .......................................................................... 172 Action Plan .........................................................................................................................
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