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Vlaamse Gemeentelijke Demografische Vooruitzichten 2018-2035

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Vlaamse Gemeentelijke Demografische Vooruitzichten 2018-2035 Vlaamse gemeentelijke demografische vooruitzichten 2018-2035 Deel 1. Bevolkingsvooruitzichten: hypotheses en werkwijzen www.statistiekvlaanderen.be Samenstelling Edith Lodewijckx, Edwin Pelfrene & Ingrid Schockaert Verantwoordelijke uitgever Statistiek Vlaanderen Roeland Beerten Hoofdstatisticus Vlaamse overheid Havenlaan 88 bus 20 1000 Brussel pagina 2 van 27 Bevolkingsvooruitzichten 28.02.2018 INHOUDSTAFEL 1. Inleiding 2. Basisgegevens 3. Het projectiemechanisme 3.1. Cohort-component methode 3.2. Leeftijd bij demografische gebeurtenissen 4. Geboorten en vruchtbaarheid 4.1. Evolutie vruchtbaarheid Vlaams Gewest 4.2. Gemeentelijke differentiatie van de vruchtbaarheid 5. Overlijdens en sterftekansen 5.1. Sterfte binnen 3 aparte leeftijdsgroepen 5.2. Projectie sterftecijfers voor leeftijden tussen 0 en 64 jaar 5.3. Projectie sterftecijfers voor leeftijden tussen 65 en 89 jaar 5.4. Projectie sterftecijfers voor leeftijden 90 jaar en ouder 5.5. Projectie levensverwachting bij geboorte 6. Interne migratie 6.1. Schema modellering interne migratiestromen 6.2. Interne emigratiekansen 6.3. Interne immigratie 7. Internationale migratie 7.1. Internationale immigratie 7.2. Internationale emigratie 8. Omzetting van reële getallen naar gehele getallen Referenties Bijlagen (3) 28.02.2018 Bevolkingsvooruitzichten pagina 3 van 27 pagina 4 van 27 Bevolkingsvooruitzichten 28.02.2018 1. INLEIDING Deze nota geeft informatie over de hypothesen en berekeningswijze van de ‘Vlaamse gemeentelijke demografische vooruitzichten 2018-2035’. Deze zijn uitgewerkt voor alle Vlaamse steden en gemeenten - behoudens voor de kleine gemeente Herstappe (89 inwoners op 1/1/2017). Precies die blik op het lokale niveau onderscheidt deze vooruitzichten van die van het Federaal Planbureau en Statbel.1, De opdracht wordt behartigd door Statistiek Vlaanderen, het netwerk voor openbare statistiek van de Vlaamse overheid en zal driejaarlijks een update krijgen. Deze demografische vooruitzichten situeren zich binnen een traditie van bevolkings- en huishoudensvooruitzichten op gemeentelijk niveau. De eerste gemeentelijke bevolkingsvooruitzichten voor het Vlaamse Gewest werden in 1995 aangemaakt door Paul Willems, destijds als demograaf verbonden aan het toenmalige Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën (CBGS). Zij werden aangemaakt in het kader van het tweede Milieu- en Natuurrapport Vlaanderen (MIRA-2) en kregen derhalve de naam ‘MIRA-projecties’. Meteen was ook het stramien gelegd voor navolgende lokale bevolkingsvooruitzichten. In 2000 volgde de tweede versie van MIRA-projecties. In 2005 nam de (toenmalige) Studiedienst van de Vlaamse Regering (SVR) de opdracht over voor aanmaak van officiële Vlaamse gemeentelijke demografische vooruitzichten, zowel voor de bevolking (Willems, 2006) als voor de huishoudens (Willems, 2007). Beide publicaties kregen periodiek navolging in de ‘SVR-projecties voor de bevolking en de huishoudens in Vlaamse steden en gemeenten, 2009-2030’ (Willems & Lodewijckx, 2011), en de ‘SVR-projecties voor de bevolking en de huishoudens in Vlaamse steden en gemeenten, 2015-2030’ (Pelfrene et al., 2015; Lodewijckx, 2015). De nieuwe publicatie van ‘Vlaamse gemeentelijke demografische vooruitzichten 2018-2035’ is aldus zesde in de rij. In dit verslag wordt eerst ingegaan op de gebruikte databronnen voor de lokale projecties van de bevolking (hoofdstuk 2) en op het gehanteerde projectiemechanisme volgens de cohort- component methode (hoofdstuk 3). De componenten zelf worden in de daarop volgende hoofdstukken nader onder de loep nemen: de geboorten (hoofdstuk 4), de overlijdens (hoofdstuk 5), de interne migratie (hoofdstuk 6) en de externe migratie (hoofdstuk 7). 2. BASISGEGEVENS Basis voor de Vlaamse gemeentelijke demografische vooruitzichten is de officiële jaarlijkse vastlegging van de wettelijke bevolking en haar samenstelling in huishoudens door Statbel, uitgaande van de registraties in het Rijksregister.2 Statistiek Vlaanderen ontvangt daarvan jaarlijks een kopie. 1 Statbel is de nieuwe naam voor het Belgische statistiekbureau (voormalige Algemene Directie Statistiek, FOD Economie). 2 Het Rijksregister (van de natuurlijke personen) omvat ook het wachtregister waarin asielzoekers worden ingeschreven door de Dienst Vreemdelingenzaken (DVZ) evenals EU-burgers in afwachting van woonstcontrole. Sinds 1995 worden de vreemdelingen die zijn ingeschreven in het wachtregister niet meegeteld voor het bepalen van het jaarlijkse 28.02.2018 Bevolkingsvooruitzichten pagina 5 van 27 De laatste observaties van de bevolking betreffen het aantal inwoners naar leeftijd en geslacht die op 1 januari 2017 zijn ingeschreven in elk van de 308 gemeenten van het Vlaamse Gewest. Dit geheel definieert de startpopulatie voor de gemeentelijke demografische vooruitzichten. Voor de loop van de bevolking – te weten: geboorten, overlijdens, interne (binnenlandse) en internationale migraties – is eveneens afgestemd op de officiële gegevens van Statbel. Hier is 2016 het laatste observatiejaar. Het datawarehouse Demografie van Statistiek Vlaanderen is een databank die individuele (geanonimiseerde) records van de bevolking op 1 januari van het kalenderjaar in Vlaamse gemeenten omvat alsook individuele (geanonimiseerde) informatie over de geboorten, de overlijdens en de (gemeentegrensoverschrijdende) migraties in de loop van het kalenderjaar. De databank werd opgestart in 1997, maar omvat soms ook data die teruggaan tot 1991. De geboorten betreffen levendgeborenen waarvan de moeder – op de dag van de geboorte van het kind – haar (officiële) hoofdverblijfplaats had in een gemeente van het Vlaamse Gewest Ook voor de overlijdens geldt dat de registratie aangegeven overledenen betreft wier hoofdverblijfplaats op de dag van het overlijden een gemeente van het Vlaamse Gewest is. Een migratie is bepaald als de verandering van hoofdverblijfplaats. Enkel de gemeentegrensoverschrijdende migraties worden in rekening genomen, niet de verhuisbewegingen binnen de gemeente. Een persoon kan gedurende de loop van het kalenderjaar meer dan eens van verblijfplaats wisselen. Van elke migratie is de plaats van herkomst en de plaats van bestemming geregistreerd. Voor de immigraties geldt dat als de herkomst een andere gemeente binnen België is, het een interne/binnenlandse immigratie betreft; is de herkomst een ander land (dan België), dan betreft het een externe/internationale immigratie. Analoog geldt voor de emigraties dat de uitwijking naar een andere gemeente binnen België een interne/binnenlandse emigratie betreft terwijl de uitwijking naar een ander land (dan België) een externe/internationale emigratie betreft.3 bevolkingscijfer van de gemeente (Wet van 19 juli 1991 betreffende de bevolkingsregisters en de identiteitskaarten, Art. 2bis ; Inwerkingtreding: 01-02-1995; Wet van 24 mei 1994 tot oprichting van een wachtregister, Art. 4. 3 Internationale immigratie = internationale immigratie (strikt) + herinschrijvingen + verandering van register (in); Internationale emigratie = internationale emigratie (strikt) + ambsthalve schrappingen + verandering van register (uit). pagina 6 van 27 Bevolkingsvooruitzichten 28.02.2018 3. HET PROJECTIEMECHANISME 3.1. Cohort-component methode Een eenvoudige methode voor het maken van een bevolkingsprojectie is de ‘cohort-component’- methode (UN, 1956). Die bestaat erin de bevolkingsaantallen in de toekomst te schatten aan de hand van de huidige bevolking en door rekening te houden met de kansen om te overlijden en te emigreren aan de ene kant (uitstroom) en met de geboorten en de immigraties aan de andere kant (instroom). Op deze manier wordt de bevolking telkens een jaar verder in de tijd geprojecteerd. Met andere woorden, de bevolking (populatie) van een gemeente, 푃, op tijdstip 푡 + 1, is dus gelijk aan de bevolking op tijdstip 푡, vermeerderd met de geboorten, 퐺, en met de immigraties, 퐼, en verminderd met de overlijdens, 푂, en de emigraties, 퐸: 푃푡+1 = 푃푡 + 퐺푡,푡+1 + 퐼푡,푡+1 − 푂푡,푡+1 − 퐸푡,푡+1 (1) De vergelijking – gewoonlijk aangeduid als de ‘demografische balansvergelijking’ – is eigenlijk net iets moeilijker omdat we de bevolking naar geslacht en naar leeftijd willen projecteren. Vooral de leeftijd verhoogt de complexiteit; door de bevolking een jaar verder te projecteren, worden de individuen ook qua leeftijd, 푥, een jaartje ouder, nl. 푥 + 1. Dit kan als volgt worden uitgedrukt: 푡+1 푡 푡,푡+1 푡,푡+1 푡,푡+1 푃푥+1 = 푃푥 + 퐼푥,푥+1 − 푂푥,푥+1 − 퐸푥,푥+1 (2) Dit kan men illustreren aan de hand het ‘Lexis-diagram’ dat de passage van een geboortecohorte doorheen de tijd in schema brengt (Figuur 1). Het geeft meer bepaald aanduiding van de evolutie van het aantal leden van een geboortecohorte op 푙푒푒푓푡푖푗푑 푥 doorheen het kalenderjaar, met finaal de nieuwe stand een jaar later op 푙푒푒푓푡푖푗푑 푥 + 1, na verrekening van de geboorten, de sterfgevallen, de immigraties en de emigraties. Merk op dat deze redenering enkel opgaat voor de bevolking reeds geboren op tijdstip 푡. Met andere woorden, we kunnen op 푡 + 1 enkel de bevolking vanaf 1 jaar schatten; de 0-jarigen op tijdstip 푡 (푥 = 0) worden de 1-jarigen op tijdstip 푡 + 1 (푥 = 1). Er moet dus nog een schatting worden gemaakt van de 0-jarigen op tijdstip 푡 + 1. De 0-jarige bevolking op 푡 + 1 wordt geschat aan de hand van de geboorten tussen 푡 en 푡 + 1, verminderd met het aantal van die groep dat overleed of emigreerde en vermeerderd met de jonge borelingen van dat jaar die van elders immigreerden: 푡+1 푡,푡+1 푡,푡+1 푡,푡+1 푡,푡+1 푃0 = 퐺 + 퐼퐺,0 − 푂퐺,0 − 퐸퐺,0 (3) 28.02.2018 Bevolkingsvooruitzichten pagina 7 van 27 Figuur 1. Lexis-diagram met doorloop
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