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Harvard Model Congress 2012 EFFECTS OF INCREASED AUTOMATION By Nyla Brewster INTRODUCTION By the year 2030, an estimated 15% of the world’s workforce will lose its jobs due to increased automation. Jobs that have existed for decades will be made faster, easier, and cheaper for companies through the use of machines. Automation has been occurring A series of vehichles throughout the past century across the world, but the next two constructed in an decades will see especially high levels of technological innovation. automated Self-driving vehicles, self-ordering kiosks, and machines that have assembly line. the capability to perform complex tasks previously only done by Source: Alamy hand are just the beginning. As a result, these 400 million displaced workers will be forced to find new careers, potentially in fields in which they have no exposure or training. Unemployment, poverty, and inequality will continue to rise in the absence of intervention. Automation is a general term referring to the use of technology, whether that be a machine or another computer-driven apparatus, 91% of all to perform tasks without any human intervention. Processes as organizations use simple as screwing on a toothpaste cap and as complex as the at least some form construction of entire cars have been made more efficient through of automation. automation. It is estimated that 50% of current work activities could be automated using technologies that exist today. Moreover, this figure does not account for technologies to come in the near future. While the vast majority of such tasks are those that require little training or technical skill, automation will affect almost every field of work. Countries all over the world, regardless of size or economic power, face a great challenge in the coming years in HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS making this transition a smooth one for the millions of displaced workers. EXPLANATION OF THE ISSUE Lathe – handheld machine used to Historical Development manipulate wood, metal, and other Throughout history, shifts in automation have altered and materials influenced developments in the workforce. One of the first notable machine tools was the lathe, first produced in 1772. Allowing The Industrial miners to cut, drill, and shape metal easily, this tool was one of the Revolution – period first to demonstrate the great improvements in efficiency that can between 1760 and result from automating lengthy and repetitive processes 1840 during which traditionally done by hand. Europe and the US Just over two decades later, The Industrial Revolution made significant spurred automation on an unprecedented scale in Europe, the manufacturing United States, and many other countries that experienced the direct advances or indirect effects of such progress. Factories became primary centers of production and opened up in great numbers. Cotton spinning and paper printing were just two of the many automated processes that developed in such factories. There have also been many notable improvements in the agricultural sector, most notably the tractor. Gas-powered tractors completed what once took days or weeks in just hours. As a result, the number of workers in agriculture decreased by over 50% in some countries, including the United States. The last major shift, which is particularly relevant to the One of the first gas workforce today, was the emergence of artificial intelligence and powered tractors. Source: FarmCollector robotics. The first robot was created in 1939, over a century after the Industrial Revolution had ended. Soon after, the first autonomous robots were developed. While these early machines had simplistic functions, such as navigating through a course, they laid the foundation for the use of artificial intelligence in automation today. After slow rates of innovation in the beginning of Artificial the 21st century, progress is now being made faster than ever Intelligence – before. These new automation technologies create unique problems development of to the world that have not been previously encountered or dealt computer technology with on this scale. The effects of rapid automation must be to perform typically addressed given that this age-old practice continues to grow and human tasks evolve without any signs of stopping. Scope of the Problem Not only are the disadvantages of automation unequally distributed, but the many problems within automation are multifaceted and complex. Automation primarily affects the job prospects of low-skilled workers who may not possess high levels of © HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS 2020 – REDISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED 2 HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS human capital. As mentioned before, automation can be used to expedite many processes that are often performed through intensive physical labor. This creates a need for more workers to receive better quality education, such that they can perform other jobs. However, education is often prohibitively expensive, creating another issue for governments to address. Automation also affects certain industries, including manufacturing, agriculture, and even retail, more than others. Understanding the different aspects of these problems is a crucial step in finding the most effective policy solutions. Loss of Jobs Depending on the rate of innovation within automation, anywhere from 100 to 800 million workers around the world will lose their jobs in the coming years. Not all, however, will be forced to find new professions. Although automation is often blamed for taking humans out of the picture, as of now, there is still a need for Box stacking robot human supervisors or aides for new technologies. Amazon, for in a warehouse. example, trained employees who previously stacked or moved boxes Source: The Verge to serve as operators for machines that now perform said tasks. As a result, the number of jobs lost does not directly translate into unemployment. The main group affected by increased automation are those who will be forced to seek jobs in completely new fields. It is anticipated that as many as 375 million workers will be in this difficult position. As technology advances, the most valuable skills in the workplace will continue to change. This will make finding new jobs for the hundreds of millions displaced workers even more complex. Organization for Rather than physical skills or a willingness to perform dangerous or Economic unsafe tasks, employers will seek workers with social skills, Cooperation and creativity, critical thinking, and other abilities that cannot be Development automated. Technical and digital skills, such as computer (OECD) - programming or software development, will also be in high International demand. A study performed by the countries in the Organization organization with the for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCED) found goals of increasing that almost a quarter of people do not know how to operate a trade and worldwide computer at a basic level. Finding jobs to replace those lost is only economic progress the beginning of the problem. The workers must be prepared with the skills they need to work in the fields with the most demand in the coming years. Educational Deficits Through education, people are exposed to new technologies and given the necessary skills to work in higher level jobs. While almost all developed countries have some form of government-funded education open to all, not all are created equally. Germany, for example, often offers a rigorous program during which students © HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS 2020 – REDISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED 3 HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS engage in apprenticeships along with taking classes. Many experts believe that, in order to make the transition, not only will work experience have to be intertwined more closely with schooling, as Institute for Public seen in Germany, but also will governments need to place a greater Policy Research focus on teaching skills that translate into jobs. Computer literacy, (IPRP) - Liberal think science, technology, engineering, and math (known as STEM) skills, tank in the UK and critical thinking, are just a few of the proposed new focuses. conducting extensive In many countries, access to higher education is largely international research dependent on one's socioeconomic status. In every major developed nation, the rates of higher education decrease as income decreases. As a result, there is a significant need for greater government investment in higher education. It is important to note that of the jobs that will be automated in the coming decade, the majority are low-wage jobs. In other words, those currently earning the least in society will be affected most. Without proper intervention to ensure more equal access and expanded opportunities for everyone, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPRP) notes that the gap between the rich and the poor could be widened. While education will assist younger generations while they enter the evolving workforce, there is also a great need for retraining mid- career workers. Governments currently, according to the OECD, invest very little in job retraining. In some cases, this already minor investment is decreasing. As layoffs and job-loss due to automation continue, it is essential for the downward trends to be thwarted. Varying Impacts Across Sectors Due to having fewer financial constraints, countries with more advanced economies will automate at faster rates and thus be more greatly impacted by innovation. Additionally, each country’s labor market differs and is made up of different types and amounts of jobs. Jobs with high demand in some areas may simply be unnecessary elsewhere. As a result, the effect of automation on a Close view of an country will vary greatly, both due to its economic power and the apple-picking robot mere fact that certain fields have a higher potential to automate analyzing fruit for than others. ripeness. Manufacturing will certainly continue to experience further Source: CBS automation, as it has for decades. In 1900, manufacturing made up over 20 percent of the worldwide workforce. However, it has now decreased to under half of that figure. Due to the nature of the manual labor-intensive field, manufacturing has always been a sector prime for innovation and automation.
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