Celfin Capital Andean Investor Day London –New York
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Celfin Capital Andean Investor Day London –New York June 2011 This information material may include certain forward‐looking statements and projections provided by CAP S.A. (the “Company“) with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, plans, objectives, future performance, and business of the Company. Any such statements and projections reflect various estimates and assumptions by the Company concerning anticipated results and are based on the Company’s expectations and beliefs concerning future events and, therefore, involve risks and uncertainties. Such statements and projections are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances, which may never occur, and actual results may differ materially from those contemplated (expressed or implied) by such forward‐ looking statements and projections. No representations or warranties are made by the Company or any of its affiliates as to the accuracy of any such statements or projections. Whether or not any such forward looking‐statements or projections are in fact achieved will depend upon future events, some of which are not within the control of the Company. Accordingly, the recipient of this material should not place undue reliance on such statements. Any such statements and projections speak only as of the date on which they are made, and the Company does not undertake any obligation, and expressly disclaims any obligation, to update or revise any such statements or projections as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise 2 Agenda Company overview Global environment Business plan Financial highlights Investment considerations 3 Vertically integrated ferrous metal company o Exports iron ore products, mainly to Asia o Produces steel for the domestic market o Processes value‐adde d steel solutions in Chlhile, Peru and Argentina o The above allows for a balanced and profitable business portfolio o 2010 Consolidated Revenues, EBITDA and Net Income of US$ 2 billion, US$ 740 million and US$ 304 million respectively Mining Steel Steel Processing 4 Corporate structure Mitsubishi Pension Invercap Other Corporation Funds 19,3% 9,4% 31,3% 40,0% 47,32% 52,68% 75,0% 99,9% 25,0% Compañía Minera Compañía Siderúrgica Novacero del Pacífico Huachipato 50,93% 50,93% 11,03% 11,03% Cintac Intasa Iron Ore Mining Steel Production Steel Processing 5 Source: CAP, May 26 2011 Iron ore mining Los Colorados mine Iron ore mining operations Punta Totoralillo Port Cerro Negro Norte There are currently three different and Copiapó idindepen den t areas of operation in the Magnetite Plant north of Chile, located around the cities of La Serena, Vallenar and Copiapó: Los Colorados Cities Guacolda II Port Vallenar Pellets Plant Mines El Algarrobo Processing Plants Ports Cristales El Tofo El Romeral La Serena Guayacán Port 7 Shipments and markets Shipments Markets 2010 12.030 12.000 18%1,8% 03%0,3% 10.145 10.213 7,6% 15%1,5% 10.000 2,8% 8.377 14,8% 7.674 61,6% 8.000 7.251 MT . hh 6.000 T 9,6% 4.000 2.000 2.289 1Q 11 0 China Chile Japan Malaysia USA Indonesia Korea Perú 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Share of Seaborne market Seaborne Trade 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f CMP Market Share (%) 1,11% 1,04% 1,07% 0,86% 1,11% 0,98% 1,10% Source: Goldman Sachs, Credit Research 2010 8 Resources and reserves of magnetite ore Mine / Deposit Total Mineral Resources (1) Reserves (2) MTM Grade (% Fe) MTM Grade (% Fe) Existing operations Los Colorados (under expansion) + District 437 45,0% 256 43,6% El Romeral 282 33,9% 86 39,7% El Algarrobo 143 41,3% 47 47,8% Hierro Atacama I ‐ Candelaria (3) 302 10,0% ‐‐ ‐‐ Projects under construction Cerro Negro Norte 457 34,6% 177 39,0% Reserves for future development Pleito Cristales / Tofo District 587,4 28,4% Under study El Laco 734 49,2% 376 56,7% El Algarrobo ‐ Alcaparra District 536 33,2% 118 35,5% Total 3.478 35,80% 1.060 Source: CAP o As a result of continued successful exploration campaigns, iron ore resources have increased progressively over the years; 2.352 million MT in 2007, reaching 3.478 million MT in 2010 o Current resources would allow for eventual production of over 40 million MT per year (1) Those minerals measured on a geological ore content feasible of being mined. (2) Those geological resources that are feasible of being mined economically. 9 (3) CMP has the contractual right to process the tailing dump and fresh tailings of Candelaria copper mine. Steel production Blast Furnace at CSH Steel production Market Share o The leader in Chile’s steel market 70% 65% Earthquake 58% 66% 62% o 1.45 million ton s of aauannualliqui d steel 60% 50% 55% 50% 55% 37% production capacity 40% 47% 30% 30% Strong long term commercial relations 20% o 10% with customers in Chile 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 1T 2011 o Vertical integration in iron and limestone Target Market Total Market provides an advantageineconomic Shipments and Prices cycles 4.000 1.116,9 1.200,0 3.500 1.000,0 o Long products: Rebar, wire rod and 3.000 835,0 798,7 800,0 grinding bars; Flat steel: HRC, CRC and 2.500 714,2 698,8 MT zincalum 2.000 626,8 600,0 Th. 1.500 1.219 US$/Ton 1.119 1.213 1.161 400,0 922 1.000 671 200,0 500 0 0,0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 11 Deliveries Prices Steel production o The earthquake of February 27, 2010, severely damaged our steel mill, causing a 3 months detention o Greater damage in primary production area: pier, coke plant, blast furnaces and steel shop o Production restarted within June , 2010 o In 2011 plant operating at full capacity (around 100 Th. tons of finished product per month) o Integrated steel producers’ margins facing a strong challenge due to increase in raw materials costs and electricity 12 Steel processing Steel processing o Creates value‐added solutions for the construction, industry and infrastructure sectors in Chile, Peru and Argentina o Chile is Latinamerica’s most advanced user of steel in construction o Seeks to promote steel consumption Shipments and Prices 1.300,0 1.400 1.245,4 1.250,0 1.200 1.200,0 1.000 1.198,9 1.150,0 1.093,6 Ton MT 800 / 1.040,8 1.100,0 $ h. 1.058,6 SS TT 600 1.050,0 U 407 350 341 400 274 297 1.000,0 200 950,0 0 900,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Deliveries Price 14 EBITDA (1) by business unit 97% 100% CMP CSH SPG 92% 80% 77% 60% 54% 52% 47% 50% 42% 38% 40% 40% 36% 18% 20% 13% 12% 8% 8% 5% 6% 7% ‐3% 1% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q 2011 ‐20% US$ million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q 2011 EBITDA 255 247 336 534 128 740 223 (1) EBITDA: Gross Margin – S&AE + Depreciation + Dividends received in cash. 15 Agenda Company overview Global environment Business plan Financial highlights Investment considerations 16 Seaborne iron ore supply and demand balance Seaborne supply and demand balance New projects MMT 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f ‐50 ‐100 ‐150 ‐200 ‐250 ‐300 ‐350 Deficit Source: Macquarie Research, May 2011 Source: Macquarie Research, 2010 o Target implementation date of new projects highly unpredictable o Iron ore supplies will remain tight for the next several years 17 Seaborne iron ore supply and demand balance Increase in production capacity New projects 506 MTM 304 234 169 125 26 MTM 2008 2009 2010 o New projects generally require high infrastructure cost and extended construction periods o Environmental permits ever more demanding o Average project Capex has quadrupled since 2006 o Asaresultoverhalfofprojectstargetedbylargeproducersfor2008‐2010 have been delayed. Those more recently announced should follow similar fate 18 Source: Macquarie Research, March 2011 Strong increase in Capex observed for new projects Source: JP Morgan Research , May 2011 o It is getting more expensive to add new capacity, even for the big 3 19 Iron ore price evolution Iron ore grades of Chinese producers v/s Iron ore spot prices Source: JP Morgan Research, May 2011 20 Iron ore price projection Iron Ore Spot Price Estimates (Pellet Feed US$/Ton) Source: Macquarie Commodities Research, May 2011 o According to the market projections, iron ore prices will remain strong 21 Evolution of raw materials prices Metallurgical Coal Iron Ore 350 225 211,49 Pellet (65% Fe) 300 200 250 175 150 151, 24 200 138,83 125 150 US$/Ton 100 100 US$/DMT 72,83 75 50 71,78 50 28,03 0 25 37,81 11 11 11 ‐ ‐ ‐ 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Jun Apr 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 May Baltic Dry Index 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep May May May May May May May May o Both metallurgical coal and iron ore show a sharp drop following the global economic crisis in 2008. Shortly after, steel raw materials prices began to recover but not associated shipping costs (Baltic Dry Index) Source: CAP and The Baltic Exchange, May 2011 22 Steel production World Steel Production (MTM) v/s World Steel Plants Capacity Utilization o Current world steel production using approximately 80% of total installed capacity o Plant utilization outside China considerably lower Source: Bloomberg and Santander Estimates, 2011 23 Evolution of steel price 24 Urbanization in progress Source: Arcelor Mittal, Metal Bulletin o Growing urban population levels in developing countries will have an impact on levels of iron ore itdimported as well as stlteel prodtiduction and consumption 25 Crude steel consumption (million tons) Source: Arcelor Mittal, Metal Bulletin o