14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 1 06-08-2007 15:25:36 High level debate

On Tuesday 6 February the Clingendael and former MEP and MP Lousewies lively discussion among the participants in European Studies Programme organised van der Laan. Head of the Clingendael which amongst others the Ambassadors of a high-level debate on the future of the European Studies Programme, prof.dr. Jan the UK and participated. European Union. The debate took place in Rood was the moderator of the debate. the context of a 4,5 weeks training course In response attention was devoted to the for junior from the 2004 EU Not surprisingly given the context and the Dutch and French no’ votes, the lack of enlargement countries. It was opened to experience of the speakers, the fate of the public debate on , and the coalition other guests as well, and attracted a high Constitutional Treaty became the focus of agreement, in which the government number of participants as the subject was the discussion. Issues included the content would supposedly disfavour organising highly topical just after the ‘Friends of of a possibly modified Constitutional another referendum on a revised version the Constitution’ meeting and first news Treaty; i.e. which parts should remain and of the Constitutional Treaty, but would on the content of the Dutch coalition what should be added, and the process; still seek advice from the Council of State agreement. The high-level panel consisted i.e. how to get to a modified Constitutional after which the final say would be for the of distinguished speakers: former Treaty on which all member states can Parliament. After the debate, discussions prof. Laurens-Jan Brinkhorst, Spanish agree. After a brief debate between the were continued during the social drinks. Ambassador H.E. Alfonso Dastis Quecedo panellists there was an interesting and

Seminar Portuguese Presidency of the European Union

Portuguese for European Affairs, State-Secretary Lobo Antunes during the public debate, together with Clingendael’s Chairman of H.E. Mr. Manuel Lobo Antunes, during his speech at Clingendael the Board, Dr. Bernard Bot, and Dutch Minister for European Affairs, Mr.

On July 12th, the Clingendael Institute Portuguese EU-Presidency and presented As co-referent, Clingendael was pleased had the honour of welcoming H.E. Mr. a lecture, entitled Portuguese Presidency: to welcome H.E. Mr. Frans Timmermans, Manuel Lobo Antunes, Secretary of State a stronger Union for a better world? in the Dutch counterpart of minister Lopez for European Affairs of Portugal. Minister which he highlighted its priorities. The Antunes. The seminar was chaired by Dr. Lobo Antunes visited Clingendael on the event was organised by the Clingendael Bernard Bot, Chairman of the Board of occasion of the seminar regarding the European Studies Programme. Clingendael.

Sudanese Diplomats at Clingendael

The delegation of Junior and Mid-career Liberation Movement (SPLM), one of the Diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign key challenges for Sudan lies in the set-up Affairs of the Sudanese Government of operational joint leadership structures of National Unity (GNU) during their with a goal ratio of 30% former SPLM offi- training in Clingendael, November cials in all new structures. This delegation 2006. Following the signature of the met the target with 5 Diplomats from the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) South or Darfur out of a total of 18. between the previously existing Khartoum Government and the Sudanese People

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 2 06-08-2007 15:25:44 Journal of Diplomacy In Memoriam Bart Tromp

The Hague Journal of Diplomacy is the Bart Tromp was premier research journal for the study of a critical and diplomacy and its role in contemporary creative thinker . It publishes the best on a wide vari- research on the theory, practice and tech- ety of issues, niques of diplomacy in both its traditional but above all a state-based bilateral and multilateral forms, stimulating col- plus more recent forms of diplomacy, such league with a as track-two diplomacy, field diplomacy warm personality. and public diplomacy practised by states and non-state entities. Each issue contains He joined Clingendael’s staff in research articles and at least one piece focu- September 2003 as visiting Senior sed on the practical aspects of diplomacy. Research Fellow. Since 2005 he was a member of the Clingendael Diplomatic The Journal promotes the analysis and Studies Programme, where his research understanding of diplomacy by acquain- focused on the evolution of internatio- ting a broad audience of readers with the nal relations in a historical perspective. best works undertaken in diplomatic stu- This was the latest step in a long and dies in a variety of intellectual traditions. ‘Towards a European Foreign Policy’, fruitful relationship with the Institute. Diplomatic studies is an interdisciplinary Brian Crowe He had lectured at Clingendael since the and inclusive field: the publication’s con- Institute’s very foundation in 1983, and tents will therefore reflect the wide array Jonas Talberg ‘Parameters of the in the 1970’s he was Vice Chairman of of methodologies by which diplomacy may Chairmanship’s Effectiveness: The Case the Dutch Institute of Peace Studies, one be studied. of the UN Security Council’, Spyros of Clingendael’s constituent organisati- Blavoukos, Dimitris Bourantonis and ons. The Hague Journal of Diplomacy is publis- Panayotis Tsakonas hed by Martinus Nijhoff, an imprint of Bart Tromp studied Political Sociology Brill Academic Publishers (www.brill.nl). Diplomacy with Fundamentalists: The at University. After gradua- It aims to stimulate research on diplomacy and the Taliban’, Juergen ting cum laude in 1971, he first taught and serve as a platform for a number of Kleiner Sociology at the Eindhoven University activities. In cooperation with the city before moving to University to of The Hague, Clingendael will orga- ‘A Case Study in Summitry: the British lecture in Political Science. He publis- nise a two-yearly The Hague Diplomacy Experience under Edward Heath, 1970-74’, hed a wide variety of works, including Conference, of which the first one has John W. Young books on Thomas Hobbs and Karl Marx, taken place on 21-22 June 2007. and cultural policy, Diplomatic Cultures: Comparing Russia the Balkan wars of the early 1990’s, the Manuscripts or proposals should be sub- and the West in Terms of a ‘Modern evolution of Dutch social democracy, and mitted by e-mail to the editors, Model of Diplomacy’, Tatiana V. Zonova a handbook on political science. He also Jan Melissen and Paul Sharp, at was a political commentator and colum- [email protected]. The Impact of Enlargement: nist for many years for Dutch newspa- Europeanization of Polish Foregn Policy? pers Het Parool and De Gelderlander and Selected articles from Volumes 1 and 2: Tracking Adaptation and Change in weekly Elsevier. the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘The Diplomacy of Proximity and Karolina Pomorska Since 1978 he served on various advisory Specialness: Enhancing Canada’s councils of the Dutch government on Representation in the United States’, Democracy Promotion as Foreign Policy: matters of peace and security. He was Brian Hocking and Donna Lee Some Cautionary Reflections, also a member of the Committee on David W. Lovell Peace and Security of the Advisory Board ‘Public Diplomacy Between Home and of International Affairs. Abroad: Norway and Canada’, Josef Bátora ‘Do This One For Me, George’: Blair, In addition to his work for Clingendael, Brown, Bono, Bush and the ‘Actor-ness’ of Bart Tromp was a Professor in the the G8, Geoffrey Allen Pigman and John Theory and History of International Kotsopoulos Relations at the University of Amsterdam by special appointment of Summit Diplomacy: High-Level Meeting the Society of International or Courtesy Call? A Response to John Affairs (NGIZ). Young, David Hastings Dunn We will remember him as an indepen- Reforming Foreign Services for the dent, creative spirit, who has contribu- Twenty-First Century, Shaun Riordan ted immensely to both the Institute’s research and its training activities, and The first contributor to The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, Alan Experience Matters Most, whose original and critical input will be Henrikson, flanked by the editors Jan Melissen and Paul Sharp, Karl Theodor Paschke sadly missed. at The Journal’s launch in San Diego

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 3 06-08-2007 15:25:48 Clingendael Asia Studies

On 1 September 2006, the Clingendael Clingendael Asia Studies is a unique visiting fellow at CAS Willem van Institute launched Clingendael Asia cooperation of the Clingendael Diplomatic Kemenade presented his new Clingendael Studies (CAS). This new research project Studies Programme and Security and Diplomacy Paper, ‘China and : is aimed at promoting academic and Energy Programmes, supported by the Partners of Permanent Rivals?’. Various public discussion on a diverse range of Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. further events are scheduled, dealing with topics relating to Asia’s international Geostrategic implications of the such topics as Dutch China policy, relations. The objectives and outline of emergence of China for the region and Russian-Asian energy relations, Chinese research to be undertaken within CAS also for Europe and the Netherlands are a influence in Africa, trade and human were presented by its supervisor Jan major point of interest. Clingendael Asia rights, and the planned EU-China Melissen and individual researchers Studies thus responds to Asia’s growing Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. during a ‘kick-off’ seminar on Tuesday importance in international economics 17 October. and (resource) security. The initiative CAS is actively establishing contacts with reflects intensifying Asian-European Asia institutes and experts, academics as relations in the public and private well as practitioners. Several research trips domain. Apart from China, the were made in the past few months, to main focus within CAS is on East, Japan, China, the US, and Great Britain. Southeast, and South Asia. CAS publishes regularly on current events and their underlying dynamics in Asia. Events since the kick-off Publications, upcoming events and other meeting on 17 October include details are available at the CAS-website: lectures by prominent Asia experts www.clingendael.nl/asia. For further such as Andrew Watson (Ford information, please contact asia@ Foundation China), and Iokibe clingendael.nl. Makoto (Japanese Defence Academy). In February an expert seminar was held where senior

CAS/CIEP trip to China

Lucia van Geuns and Susann Handke, Susann Handke, Lucia van Geuns and Professor Xia Yishan (2nd, 3rd and 4th from left) and other energy both Clingendael International Energy experts at the China Institute of International Studies, Programme (CIEP), have made a research Beijing. and networking trip to China as part of the Clingendael Asia Studies (CAS). During this trip (from April 15 to 25, 2007), they visited Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing. They gave presentations at several universities, research institutes, and think tanks. These visits also provided a perfect opportunity for an exchange of views with Chinese researchers and scholars. The contacts made during this trip will be further developed and used to organise CAS/CIEP conferences and conduct joint research projects in the future. The conversations with Chinese academics Further, presentations were given both at and researchers mainly focussed on geopo- with researchers and PhD candidates. the Institute of European Studies of the litical developments and China’s security Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and of energy supplies, the use of renewable After a short stay in South and East the Tsinghua University, and European energies to reduce China’s air pollution China, several research institutes and and Chinese energy policies have been and the promotion of more energy-effi- university in Beijing were visited. During discussed with scholars and students. cient solutions in China. a meeting with Professor Zha Daojiong, Finally, there was a rare opportunity to a prominent and outspoken energy meet Professor Xia Yishan and other In Hong Kong, a visit was made to Civic expert at Renmin University, there was energy experts of the China Institute of Exchange and a presentation was given at ample opportunity to discuss energy- International Studies and discuss China’s the Center on China’s Transitional Relations related geopolitical developments. At the foreign energy policy and the prospects of the Hong Kong University of Science and Energy Research Institute of the National of energy cooperation with Russia. The Technology. In Shanghai, the renowned Development and Reform Commission, contact with Professor Xia was established Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences was Jiang Kejun explained China’s policies to with the help of the Royal Netherlands visited where energy issues were discussed promote the use of renewable energies. Embassy in Beijing.

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 4 06-08-2007 15:25:52 Conflict Research Unit (CRU)

GLOBAL NON-PROLIFERATION AND COUNTER-TERRORISM The AIDS, Security and Conflict Initiative The Impact of UNSCR 1540 (ASCI) ASCI Meeting on Post-Conflict Launched in September 2006, the AIDS, Transition and Security and Conflict Initiative (ASCI) is HIV/AIDS with Olivia Bosch and Peter van Ham, Editors a joint project of the Conflict Research the International Centre of Unit and the Social Science Research Global Non-Proliferation Migration and Council (SSRC) in New York. This impor- Health (ICMH)’ and Counter-Terrorism tant Initiative has been made possible by The Impact of UNSCR 1540 support from the Netherlands Ministry Post-Conflict Research Programme (PCRP) of Foreign Affairs, the Swedish Ministry Olivia Bosch and Peter van Ham, As of 1 January 2007, the Conflict Research of Foreign Affairs, the Australian Agency Unit has entered into a new four-year agree- Editors for International Development, the ment (2007-2010) with the Netherlands Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Foreign Affairs to conduct poli- copublished by Clingendael Institute and International Trade, the Rockefeller cy relevant research on post-conflict recon- and Chatham House Brothers’ Fund, UNAIDS and the United struction and stabilisation. The programme, price $24.95 Nations Population Fund. entitled the Post-Conflict Research 978-0-8157-1017-2 The aim of this important initiative is not Programme (PRCP), will take an integrated March 2007 only to increase attention for the centrality approach towards the three main com- of HIV/AIDS to the international peace ponents of a post-conflict reconstruction and security agenda. ASCI also aims to process: security and stability; governance fill knowledge gaps, as well as to provide and democratisation; and socio-economic answers to the most pressing policy devel- development. The main objective of the opment needs related to HIV/AIDS, secu- programme is to provide the Dutch govern- rity and conflict. In doing so, the initiative ment with relevant input for (international) brings together an international network policy development on the above-mentioned of researchers, policy makers and practitio- issues by conducting research, organising ners across various geographic regions and (international) expert meetings and provid- Promoting Democracy in specialist fields. ing training for government officials. Postconflict Societies: With the available research fund, ASCI has Conflict Prevention Network/ A Comparative Perspective commissioned a total of 20 field based and Observatoire pour l’Afrique Jeroen de Zeeuw and Krishna policy oriented studies around the world to As part of an international consortium Kumar, Editors investigate the reciprocal impacts of HIV/ led by International Alert, the Conflict AIDS on security in four thematic areas: Research Unit has recently won the tender (1) peacekeeping and uniformed services, for the Conflict Prevention Network of the published by Lynne Rienner Publishers including the police; (2) complex humani- . Other partners in price $55 tarian emergencies, post-conflict transition the consortium are Saferworld, CMI, ICTJ 1-58826-446-7 and peace building; (3) fragile states and and Fride (amongst others). In the period July 2006 governance; and (4) cross-cutting themes June 2007 – December 2008 the consor- including gender issues, security sector tium will contribute to the policy devel- for more information see reforms and disarmament, demobilization opment of the EC in the area of conflict www.rienner.com and reintegration. prevention and management. CRU will Since its inception, ASCI has convened also be a part of an international network meetings in the Netherlands, Switzerland, entitled ‘Observatoire pour l’Afrique’. This South Africa and Australia with various network has been instigated by the French research institutions collaborating in this Ministry of Defence and will organise iniative. ASCI will continue to actively seek expert meetings on several security issues opportunities to learn from and contribute in Africa, to provide input for the develop- to debates across humanitarian, human ment of the international policy agenda. rights and security arenas and will, under Lead partner in this project is the Belgian the guidance of CRU and SSRC, commis- Egmont Institute. The New Public Diplomacy sion additional research, organise expert and Edited by Jan Melissen peer review meetings and publicise a work- Selected new CRU publications ing paper series with key research findings. Dirk Kruijt (2006), Bolivia Stability Assess- published Palgrave Macmillan In September 2007 ASCI, with the ment 2000-2005 (CRU Occasional Paper) price $25.95 support of UNAIDS and the UN Office Pyt Douma, Jean-Marie Gasana, Peter 978-0-230-53554-1 on Drugs and Crime, will organise an Sampson (2006), Burundi Stability September 2007 international expert meeting on HIV and Assessment (CRU Occasional Paper) the police in The Hague. This two-day Luc van de Goor, Mariska van Beijnum for more information see meeting will bring together researchers (2006), The Netherlands and its Whole of www.palgrave.com and policymakers in the field of HIV and Government Approach on Fragile States – police forces from across the world. Case Study Sudan (CRU Occasional Paper)

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 5 06-08-2007 15:25:58 Jeroen de Zeeuw, Krishna Kumar (2006), – Bevindingen van bestaande reviews http://asci.ssrc.org/. For more information Promoting Democracy in Post-Conflict vertaald naar de Nederlandse beleidsprak- or questions, please contact Steven Schoofs Societies (CRU Book - Lynne Rienner tijk (CRU Occasional Paper) at the Conflict Research Unit: tel. +31 70 Publishers) Evert Kets (2007), The urgent need for 3141955 or [email protected]. Ulrich Mans, Osman Mohammed Osman a renewed SSR effort in the Democratic Ali (2006), Stuck in Change, Faith-based Republic of Congo (CRU Policy Brief 5) CRU Peace-building in Sudan’s Transition (CRU For more information on the above Occasional Paper) Additional Information ASCI publications and other CRU projects, Mariska van Beijnum (2007), Multi-Donor Reports, publications and additional infor- please visit the CRU website at: Trust Funds in Postconflict Situaties mation can be found on the ASCI website: www.clingendael.nl/cru/

Reintegration of individually demobilised combatants in Colombia

On Monday 13 December 2006, Clingendael facilitated a Pax Christi Netherlands conference entitled ‘The Reintegration of Individually Demobilised Combatants in Colombia’. After the opening address by Ineke Holtwijk, former correspondent of the De Volkskrant daily newspaper, speakers from Colombia, and the Netherlands addressed the issue of the extent to which the current individual demobilisation is resulting in the full integration of the former combatants in Colombia. Marianne Moor from Pax Christi Netherlands presented the findings of a critical study on this issue. Issues that were discussed included why the reintegra- tion process, which is mainly a governmental matter, does not involve the active involvement of social organi- sations, churches and industry; why the programme has no component of dialogue or reconciliation; and how to prevent former combatants from becoming involved in crime. Representatives from various NGOs in the audi- ence contributed to a lively debate. The panel of guest lecturers, chaired by Kees Homan from Clingendael’ CSCP CSCP-activities

American and Dutch approaches to democracy, the United States and the Course for Diplomats from Eastern Europe promoting democracy Netherlands share many values that allow and Central Asia, as well as policy advisors On 16 October, together with the us to work closely together on this very to the Ministries of Defence and Foreign American Enterprise Institute, the important issue. Affairs and non-governmental organisati- German Marshall Fund and Freedom ons, the defence attachés attended a semi- House, Clingendael organised a seminar CSCP receives ISS delegation nar entitled ‘Security and Energy in the on differences and similarities between On 17 October, a delegation from the South Caucasus’. Clingendael’s Director, American and Dutch approaches to pro- Institute for Security Studies (ISS) of Professor Jaap de Zwaan, officially opened moting democracy. The meeting opened South Africa visited Clingendael. The the seminar, after which Anne Aldis, Head with a welcome dinner, at which Hans ISS is a leading African human security of the UK Defence Academy’s Conflict van Baalen, Member of Parliament for the research institution and has offices in Studies Research Centre, delivered a key- VVD, gave a keynote speech. The main Pretoria, Cape Town, Nairobi and Addis note speech on ‘Military Capabilities in themes at the seminar were developments Ababa. Its representatives gave presenta- the South Caucasus’. Next, Senior Fellow in Georgia and Iran and the different tions on developments in the Democratic Lieutenant-Colonel Dr Marcel de Haas systems for promoting democracy. The Republic of Congo, Sudan and Zimbabwe of the Clingendael Security and Conflict seminar was honoured to welcome as and terrorism in Africa. Programme (CSCP) presented a research keynote speaker Michael Kozak, Senior report entitled ‘Geo-strategy in the South Director for Democracy, Military troops come to Clingendael Caucasus’. There was much lively debate and International Organisations at the US On Tuesday 28 November, Clingendael during the seminar discussion sessions, National Security Council. Other speakers was ‘occupied’ by military forces from particularly from local and regional repre- included Gary Schmitt of the American around the world, from South America and sentatives of the South Caucasus. However, Enterprise Institute, Thomas Melia of Mongolia to South Africa and Japan. The in the good tradition of Clingendael, where Freedom House, and Marc Plattner of the occasion was an official visit of defence formal negotiations have often taken place, National Endowment for Democracy. In attachés posted in the Netherlands, as part participants made their peace over an his closing remarks, John Glenn of the of their Annual Autumn Briefing organised enjoyable drink at the end of the seminar. Marshall Fund emphasised that, despite by the Netherlands Defence Staff. Together distinctions in the approach to promote with participants in Clingendael’s Alumni

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 6 06-08-2007 15:26:00 Clingendael at ISAF

As of October 2006, and building upon Kingdom and the United States, the a phased expansion of the International Afghan military are trained in a very pro- Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in fessional way and are very motivated. The Afghanistan over a three year-period, operations of ISAF are based on three NATO is carrying out its UN-mandated pillars: security, development and gover- mission throughout the whole country. nance. But during the visit to Kandahar Major General (ret) Kees Homan from it became clear that the southern part of

the Clingendael Security and Conflict The delegation (Kees Homan holding the map) in front of ISAF the country has still to cope with a lot of Programme participated with journalists Headquarters in Kabul. hostilities. The insurgents use Pakistan and researchers from nine countries part as a sanctuary for leadership, a source of in an opinion leaders tour to Pakistan and Afghanistan organized by NATO. Most recruitment and a staging post for attacks, surprisingly was the negative attitude they which is a decisive factor in sustaining the found in Pakistan toward Afghanistan. conflict. Some spoke of a American/British occupa- Among the problems ISAF has to cope tion and considered the NATO-operation with are civilian casualties, caveats by most as illegitimate. NATO member states, a shortage in heli- One of the highlights in Afghanistan was copters and the new threat of improvised the visit to the Kabul Military Training electronic devices. As there is no military Centre, where the Afghanistan National solution for the conflict in Afghanistan, it Army is trained. Mentored by military was recognized that the UN and the EU Meeting in Mazar-e-Sharif between the provincial governor, Kees Homan (centre) and the Head of Police. from Australia, France, the United should be much more involved.

International Women’s Contact at Clingendael

On June 14th the director of the Margriet Deetman, honorary president of audience with his mind-boggling act, all Clingendael Institute, Prof. Jaap W. de IWC, followed by a brief overview of the presented within the context of interna- Zwaan, delivered a lecture for members history of the Huys Clingendael and the tional relations, negotiating processes and and invitees of the International Women’s Institute’s activities by Anna Gans, Head the human perception. He continued his Contact (IWC) in The Hague, entitled “The of External Affairs of Clingendael. presentation during the reception after the Future of the European Constitutional An interesting addition to the programme official programme had ended, and again Treaty: The Position of the Netherlands”. was the performance by illusionist Dan surprised the participants with his sleight The seminar was officially opened by mrs. Lefay, who succeeded in captivating the of hand and humorous comments.

Mrs. Margriet Deetman (centre), in the front row, together with Mrs. Almas Illusionist Dan Lefay during his performance in Clingendael main Hall. Mahmud, secretary of IWC, and Clingendael’s Jaap de Zwaan. Clingendael International Negotiation Group (CLING)

A network of Clingendael staff members is abroad. In 2006, Clingendael staff have led Laxenburg near Vienna. In 2007, publi- currently involved in negotiation training these courses in countries such as , cations on Western Sahara Negotiations, and research. The first Clingendael role- Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Britain, Czech OSCE bargaining processes, the training of play ‘avant la lettre’ took place in 1967 as Republic, Estonia, Germany, Georgia, , conflict managers, the development of the a training tool for young Dutch diplomats. Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Kuwait, processes of interstate negotiations over This was followed by topical simulation Pakistan, Malta, Slovenia, Turkey and the centuries, and the connection between games in the 1980s and training sessions Ukraine. Research projects were imple- negotiation and warfare are on the agenda. on negotiation techniques in the 1990s. mented in cooperation with the Processes Training sessions in the European Union, Nowadays, most Clingendael courses boast of International Negotiation (PIN) the Middle East, the Balkans and East Asia a module on negotiation processes, while Programme of the International Institute are in the pipeline, as are many in-house numerous negotiation seminars are given of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in workshops on the issue.

114BD064BD06 OOPMPM Newsletter.inddNewsletter.indd 7 113-08-20073-08-2007 15:15:5115:15:51 CIEP seminars and workshops

CIEP Seminar Standard grids, smart grids, of oil products as substitutes for gas will nario makers, experts and scenario users. super grids: All the same, all different, comple- slowly drive global gas pricing towards However, use and abuse of scenarios have mentary, not compatible? more and more spot pricing but the ques- gone hand in hand. tion remains. However, many stakeholders 30 May 2007, The Clingendael Institute stress the benefits of oil-indexation and the During the seminar it became clear that question remains whether a combination scenario making is a complex and lengthy Without any doubt, future electricity supply of ‘both worlds’ will be possible. This issue process, which often entails several years of will look different than it does today. The has significant policy relevance as it is one preparations and calculations. Energy scena- traditional centralized power plants will be example of the differences in perception rios combine a large number of inputs like supplemented and possibly in part be repla- between producer countries and consumer economic growth, demographic trends, oil ced by more decentralised and/or sustaina- countries’ policy makers. CIEP tries to and gas reserves, and technological progress ble forms of power generation. Different increase the understanding about the conse- to derive the picture of a possible future. generation technologies have different quences of various pricing mechanisms. Due to these complexities, the interpretation demands with respect to network infra- of scenarios requires a certain amount of structure. Distributed generation should Various excellent studies have recently caution. Interest groups, policy makers and in principle relieve transmission networks, addressed natural gas pricing issues. The the media have the tendency to use a sce- whereas large windfarms might behave CIEP seminar on 13 June brought together nario as a forecast without paying attention similar to conventional large-scale power various stakeholders to review the current to the underlying assumptions. Moreover, plants, necessitating even larger transmissi- debate and analyse the drivers that will the risk exists that only the desired results on networks due to the fluctuating character determine future gas pricing mechanisms. of a scenario are taken into account, leaving of wind energy. A group of high-class industry experts pre- away the unwanted outcomes. sented their views on the relevant issues. The benefit of a scenario approach is that The seminar presented different visions on Questions addressed during the seminar it enables to discuss energy issues, while the future of the electricity grid in Europe included for instance: incorporating various relevant topics like and illustrated current challenges. • What are the interests of the various sta- economic development, demographic Some main points can be summarised as keholders? Do they have preferences for patterns, production and consumption follows: Grid adaptations usually take a long certain pricing mechanisms and how patterns, climate change forecasts and tech- time to be implemented, around powerful are they in pushing for their nological development. In this way the sce- 5 - 10 years. Participants agreed that when preferred option? nario acts like a tool to align the discussion Europe wants to make its energy system • Do different scenarios for gas pricing between various stakeholders. cleaner, it should, next to new generation mechanisms yield different results with technologies, focus on the design of the respect to upstream and midstream The seminar was briefly summarised, grid. A related issue is that still much investments or with respect to global gas indicating three different characteristics or uncertainty exists of what the new energy trade patterns? types of scenario-making: sources will be. It is likely that wind energy 1 Scenarios and storylines in the more will play an increasing role into the future, The outcomes of the workshop will be classical sense, where plausible and/or but to which extent is equally unclear as incorporated in a CIEP study on this issue, conceivable inherently consistent pat- the role of other technologies. Should the which is underway. terns are explored. “Out-of-the-box-thin- future grid contain a major offshore part CIEP Seminar ‘Energy Scenarios, Energy king” is a dominant feature. Usually, connecting wind parks at sea to the shore as Forecasts, Energy Policy, Energy Decisions’ but not necessarily, these storylines are Airtricity proposes, or something complete- supported by quantitative results based ly different? Collaboration and information 18 June 2007, The Clingendael Institute on sophisticated energy modelling. The exchange between all actors involved will storyline itself is the core of the mes- in any case be vital for a smooth transition Energy policy and energy business require sage, supported by quantitative illustrati- towards a new European grid architecture a long-term view on expected future trends ons. and energy system. in the energy system to facilitate decision- 2. Forecasting of energy futures on the making. Energy scenarios offer quantitative basis of a set realistic assumptions that CIEP Workshop The Future of European Gas views on future trends and are especially are translated into quantitative outco- Pricing useful to manage uncertainty as they pro- mes. These assumptions can also be vide different outlooks to the future. The based on alternative policy approaches. 13 June 2007, De Malietoren, The Hague IEA’s World Energy Outlook is a frequently These forecasts could also be based on used tool for policy and other decision- probabilistic risk assessment techni- Improved physical interconnections bet- making. Numerous other energy scenarios ques, where probabilities and impacts ween gas markets on a global (LNG) as well exist, ranging from forecasts for individual are further combined. The quantitative as on a regional scale (e.g. BBL) increasin- countries to sophisticated models and stu- outcomes themselves are the core of the gly integrate regions with different pricing dies by energy industry, research institutes message. philosophies. This opens up for instance and NGO’s. There are differences in focus, 3. An in itself desirable outcome is defined opportunities for arbitrage between markets time frame and policy options. Scenario and translated into a plausible set of in which spot pricing and gas-to-gas com- making has become more sophisticated policy and other assumptions suppor- petition dominate and markets in which over the last twenty years and so has their ting the feasibility of the end results. indexation of gas prices against oil prices is relevance for decision makers. During the The outcome is the core-message. Such widely applied. There are indications that process of scenario development, many approaches would therefore tend to have arbitrage plays and the decreasing relevance interactions are taking place between sce- all sorts of back-casting characteristics.

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 8 06-08-2007 15:26:09 Lectures at Clingendael

On 5 September 2006, the Clingendael Institute welcomed H.E. Mr. Ali Babacan, Minister of State in charge of Economy and, since June 2005, the EU Chief Negotiator of Turkey. In his lecture, Mr. Babacan highlighted the topic of The Process of Negotiations: Turkey on theway to EU Accession.

On September 14, 2006, the Clingendael On 6 December, 2006, the Clingendael Institute had the honour of welcoming Institute opened its doors to welcome the Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade H.E Mr. Manouchehr Mottaki, Minister of France, H.E. Mme. Christine Lagarde, of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic who delivered a speech entitled France, of Iran, a position which he holds since Europe and globalization. Mme Lagarde 2005. During this occasion, Minister addressed the position of France in the Mottaki presented a lecture, entitled world economy and in relation with the Iran’s Nuclear Policy. European Union, focusing on the attracti- In his speech, Minister Mottaki stressed veness of the French economy in a globa- Iran’s aim for peaceful use of nuclear lized world. energy and its possibilities as conflict Rodrigo de Rato (r.) and Sweder van Wijnbergen mediator in the region. hin the context of the region. On March 29 the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, mr. Rodrigo de Rato, presented a lecture entitled The World Poverty Agenda: how the IMF sees it. The lecture was held at the occasion of a roundtable with repre- sentatives of Dutch Parliament and Civil Society. The roundtable was chaired by Prof. Sweder van Wijnbergen. Afterwards a special meeting with the Press was held in the office of Clingendael’s director Jaap The Institute of Social Studies and the On January 31st , 2007, Armenian’s W. de Zwaan. Clingendael Institute, in close coopera- Minister of Foreign Affairs, H.E. Mr. tion with the Embassy of the Republic of Vartan Oskanian, (photo left) honoured Bolivia, CEDLA, IMD, SID and Socires, the Clingendael Institute with his presen- had the honour of welcoming H.E. Mr. ce. On this occasion Minister Oskanian, Evo Morales Ayma, President of the who has been in office since 1998, held a Republic of Bolivia on 27 November 2006. speech about Diplomacy of Small States. President Morales presented a lecture at In his lecture, the Minister addressed the the Institute of Social Studies, entitled A developments in Armenia, both political reform agenda for Bolivia in the light of as well as on a socio-economic level, in current developments. Mr. Evo Morales relation to the European Union and wit- was elected president in December 2005. Being an Aymara, he is the first indige- nous president of Bolivia . Rodrigo de Rato during the briefing for the Press

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 9 06-08-2007 15:26:09 Introducing…

Mirte van den Berge Virginie Duthoit Atef Hamdy is is a Junior Fellow is fellow with the Programme Officer at the Clingendael CDSP. She for Clingendael’s European Studies coordinates courses International Programme (CESP). and training Relations course for She holds a Masters programmes in junior diplomats degree in Political international relations for civil servants from Central Asia. Science from Leiden and diplomats. Before joining Clingendael Before joining University, and is specialised in full-time in September 2006, Virginie Clingendael, he International Relations and European Duthoit worked at the French Secrétariat worked at Universiteit van Amsterdam Integration. The subject of her Master’s Général des Affaires Européennes’ as a Junior Researcher for the ‘Political thesis is the dynamics of European inte- External Relations Division. Her portfolio Orientations of Muslims in the gration in the area of asylum policy. Her included WTO issues and commercial Netherlands’ project. He also gave lectures research interest is in the areas of EU relations of the EU. Prior to that position, on migration, radicalism and extremism External Policy, Justice and Home Affairs, Virginie Duthoit worked at the French for the International School for Sciences institutional dynamics and theories of Ministry of Defence as part of her curricu- and Humanities. During his studies in integration. At CESP, Mirte van den Berge lar in the Ecole Polytechnique. Her inte- the Netherlands, Atef specialised in is involved in organizing training courses rest is in intercultural relations, negotiati- International Relations, with a focus on concerning EU-policy and decision- on and European integration process. migration and financial and environmen- making for (government) officials in the tal politics, and carried out research into Netherlands and abroad. the survival strategies of undocumented Bas Epskamp joined Egyptian migrants in Amsterdam. Clingendael as a Jan-Hein member of the Chrisstoffels is a Clingendael Stijn van den CIEP Researcher as Diplomatic Studies Heuvel joined of January 2007. Programme (CSDP) the CIEP as a He holds a Master’s in June 2007. He Researcher in degree in Economics and Japanese coordinates the November 2006. studies, and studied and lived in the Dutch course He studied United States and Japan for several years. ‘Leergang Buitenlandse Betrekkingen’, Economics His previous work experience includes which serves as a comprehensive introduc- (including reporting for the Dutch financial daily tion to international relations and the par- Environmental Economics) at the Free Het Financieele Dagblad. Jan-Hein is ticular position of the Netherlands. Before University in Amsterdam. During his stu- currently involved in research on Japan’s Clingendael, he studied international rela- dies, he took part in several internships on security of supply and Clingendael’s Asia tions and philosophy at the University of energy and sustainability in both the Studies project. He has a particular acade- Amsterdam and the New School public and private sectors. These included mic interest in the security of energy sup- University in New York. During his stu- a project with CARE Bolivia to assess the ply, as well as in Japan’s position in East dies he also completed a minor in interna- feasibility of solar-energy, water-pumping Asia. tional economics and the ‘Leergang systems in the countryside. Before joining Buitenlandse Betrekkingen’ at the CIEP, he spent 18 months working for Clingendael. His current research concen- a consulting company that advises on vari- Ko Colijn has joined trates on the use of sanctions by multilate- ous types of change projects. At Clingendael as ral institutions like the UN Security Clingendaell, he is mainly involved in senior visiting fellow Council and the European Union. research on the energy markets in the at CSCP. He is a well European Union and on the CIEP theme known journalist ‘Energy & Sustainable Development’. and columnist to Bibi van Ginkel the Vrij Nederland has joined CSCP as weekly and a regular commentator for senior fellow. Maaike Heijmans Dutch/Belgian public news services. He She studied studied political was appointed to the Erasmus University International at science and Japanese of as professor in International University. at the University Relations, specialising in global security She is currently of Amsterdam issues, holding the chair of the completing her PhD research on the role and Leiden. She Netherlands Society for International of the United Nations in combating terro- holds a second Affairs (NGIZ) at the University’s Faculty rism. Her research focuses on the legal master’s degree in of Social Sciences. aspects of combating terrorism, human international relations from Waseda rights, public , and the University in Tokyo. She has lived and United Nations system of collective securi- studied in the United States, Hong Kong ty. She is also a member of the Committee and Japan, and travelled extensively in on Peace and Security of the Advisory (East) Asia since 1995. Before joining Council on International Affairs. Clingendael, she worked at the Embassy

114BD064BD06 OOPMPM NNewsletter.inddewsletter.indd 1010 113-08-20073-08-2007 15:14:2315:14:23 of Japan in The Hague. She has a particular conducting a review of the Asia Pacific security policy, stability in East Asia and academic interest in the political economy division’s work in complex emergencies. security in Africa. Frans-Paul studied of the East Asian region. Her Asia-related History at , with suppor- research projects are on the political ting courses in Sinology, and obtained his economy of East Asia, focusing on Japan’s Nils de Mooij PhD in 2001. His thesis was published as position in the region, economic diplomacy joined CDSP in Corporate Behaviour and Political Risk: and state - non-state relations in East Asia. March 2007 as a Dutch Companies in China, 1903-1941. She also holds a special interest in consular Programme Officer affairs and diplomacy. and Fellow. He holds a bachelor’s degree Louise van Schaik in history and a has a Master’s Warner ten Kate has master’s in conflict degree in Public been working at the studies and human rights (cum laude), Administration Clingendael both attained at Utrecht University. For his from Leiden International Energy master’s degree, he undertook several University and is Programme since months of independent research into the enrolled in the PhD October 2006. His Ukrainian 2004 Orange Revolution in programme of the research focuses on Kiev, in particular the role of the ‘Yellow political science department of the security of energy Pora’ organisation. For CDSP, he will Catholic University of Leuven. In her supply and geopolitics. Current projects initially be working on the Indonesian research and training activities at the comprise energy policies in the Eurasian diplomatic training project, also seeking Clingendael European Studies region and the approach of the United to develop further expertise in the field of Programme Louise focuses on States towards global energy markets. He (diplomatic) simulation games. EU policy-making processes and their has an MA in International Relations and influence on policy outcomes, EU International Organizations from institutional reform and the way the EU Groningen University, obtained in 2006 Willem Post is a operates in international negotiations on senior visiting civilian issues, including trade, develop- fellow. He is a ment, environment and health. Prior to Evert Kets is a historian from joining Clingendael in 2006, Louise for Research Fellow with Leiden University, four years was a Research Fellow at the CRU. He has an MA specialised in Centre for European Policy Studies, a in Modern Political American history renown -based think tank, where History from the and politics, as well she published several policy relevant Catholic University as in diplomatic studies, policy briefs and commentaries of Louvain, history and international relations. and was involved in a variety of high-level and worked as an Since the mid-eighties, Willem Post international events. African Affairs analyst at the Belgian has frequently appeared as a national Ministry of Defence (2003-2007), as commentator on Dutch television and journalist for TV-Brussel (1999-2003), as in other media. For instance during the Steven Schoofs well as freelance journalist and history evening/ night of the US-elections, the joined Clingendael’s teacher (1997-1999). His expertise lies terrorist-attacks on 9/11 and the war in Security and Conflict in the field of Security Sector Reform Iraq. He is an experienced lecturer on Programme (CSCP) processes, Conflict & Security in the Great American foreign and security policy. in February last as a Lakes Region and the Horn of Africa, At Clingendael Willem Post will focus Research Fellow. Journalism & Media, Belgian politics. on US foreign- and security policy. During his studies at Wageningen University, he com- Marco Mezzera Frans-Paul van der pleted a free study programme that focu- joined the Conflict Putten joined sed on international governance and poli- Research Unit (CRU) Clingendael in tics. In 2006, he received his MSc degree of the Clingendael January 2007 as with a Distinction. He also holds an MA Security and Conflict CSCP Research degree in International Relations from- Programme (CSCP) Fellow for Warwick University in the United on 2 April 2007, as Clingendael Asia Kingdom. Research Fellow on Studies. He is He has worked in Clingendael’s Conflict Governance and Democratisation. He researching the Research Unit (CRU) before, first as an holds an MSc in Rural Development relevance of the rise of Asia for internatio- intern in 2004 and then as a research Studies, specialising in Development nal security, with particular attention to assistant during the first half of 2005. Sociology. He acted as the Regional the emergence of the Chinese state as a Within the CRU, he will be responsible Coordinator for Asia and the Pacific at the powerful actor in international relations. for coordinating the AIDS, Security European Center for Conflict Prevention The international role of China, seen in and Conflict Initiative (ASCI), which is (ECCP) in Utrecht. He has also worked as the context of Japan’s earlier rise and a global research initiative convened by a consultant for the International Fund the widely expected rise of India, will be Clingendael and the Social Science for Agricultural Development in Rome, viewed in relation to three themes: .

14BD06 OPM Newsletter.indd 11 06-08-2007 15:26:28 Introducing… Clingendael Publications

Gijs de Vries Clingendael The Europeanisation of Consular Affairs: joined The Case of Visa Policy Clingendael Diplomacy Papers No. 105 by Ana Mar Fernández on 1 April 2007, as a Senior Religion and Development Aid Coercive Diplomacy by the EU: The Case Fellow in the The Special Case of Islam of Iran, Clingendael by Maurits S. Berger No 106 by Tom Sauer European Studies Programme. His Clingendael Diplomacy Paper 8 Commercial Diplomacy and International research will focus on aspects of Business European security, including terrorism. No. 107 by Michel Kostecki and Olivier Naray From 2004-2007, served China and Japan: Partners or Permanent as the European Union’s Counter- Rivals? Terrorism Coordinator. Prior to this, by Willem van Kemenade First publication he was a representative of the Dutch Government in the European Clingendael Diplomacy Paper 9 in the new Series Convention (2002-2003), the Dutch Deputy Minister of the Interior (1998- Diplomatic Studies 2002) and leader of the Liberal and City Diplomacy: The Expanding Role of Democratic Group in the European Cities in International Politics, Diplomacy with a Diffference: Parliament (1994-1998). Gijs de Vries by Rogier van der Pluijm The Commonwealth Office of High is a member of the World Economic Commissioner, 1880-2006 Forum’s West Islamic World Dialogue Clingendael Diplomacy Paper 10 (C-100). He is also an Advisory Board Lorna Lloyd, Keele University member and co-founder of the Transatlantic Policy Network. Caught in the Middle: UN Involvement in Published by Brill Academic Publishers. the Western Sahara Conflict Series editor: Prof. Jan Melissen, Director by Jérôme Larosch of Clingendael Diplomatic Studies Carien Westerveld For more information, please is a member of the Clingendael Diplomacy Paper 11 visit: http://www.brill.nl/default. Clingendael aspx?partid=10&pid=26595 Diplomatic Studies Programme New Clingendael Future titles: (CDSP), She Public Diplomacy and Nation Branding: A coordinates Diplomatic Studies European Perspective, Javier Noya () courses and Foreign Affairs Administration in the training Paper Information Age, Jozef Batora (Slowak programmes in international relations Republik) for civil servants and diplomats. Before De Veiligheidsraad en de nucleaire pro- British Diplomacy in Turkey, 1583 to the joining Clingendael full-time in January gramma’s van Noord-Korea en Iran present, Geoff Berridge (UK) 2007, she did a traineeship at CDSP. (The Security Council and the Nuclear Prior to that position Carien worked Programmes of North Korea and Iran) for the training department of the Dick Leurdijk Clingendael Security Royal Netherlands Army, where she was involved in international training Available in Dutch only Paper programmes for UN officers. Also, Carien worked for the Netherlands Jihadi terrorists in Europe, their charac- Helsinki Committee and Amnesty Discussion Papers in teristics and the circumstances in which International. Her current research they joined the jihad: an exploratory interests are crisis diplomacy, ethnic Diplomacy study, conflict, and genocide. by Edwin Bakker What Can Public Diplomacy Achieve? No. 104 by Alan K. Henrikson For more information, please contact the CSCP secretariat of the Clingendael Institute. tel. 070 - 3746654, email: [email protected].

Published by: the Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael”, P.O. Box 93080, 2509 AB The Hague, the Netherlands, telephone: + 31.(0)70.324.53.84, telefax: + 31 (0)70 328.20.02, internet: www.clingendael.nl. e-mail: [email protected] or [email protected] Photographs: the Clingendael Institute.

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