Baseline assessment for Lusaka – prepared for FRACTAL 1 Contents Glossary of terms ................................................................................................................................ 3 1. Background to the Future Climate for Africa Program ................................................................ 4 2. Introduction to the report and outline of contents ..................................................................... 7 3. Lusaka and its vulnerability to climate change ............................................................................ 8 3.1 Development challenges and climate vulnerabilities .............................................................. 8 3.2 The impact of climate change on Lusaka, perceived or proved climate impacts on the City? 10 4. A framework for thinking about Lusaka’s climate change challenges and responses ................ 12 5. City scale management challenges ............................................................................................ 14 5.1 Water & Sanitation ................................................................................................................ 15 5.2 Urban Economic Infrastructure ............................................................................................. 20 5.3 Informal settlements ............................................................................................................. 25 6. Lusaka & linkages to the broader geo-region: water, energy and food nexus issues ................. 30 6.1 Introduction to the Kafue Flats .............................................................................................. 30 6.2 Water .................................................................................................................................... 31 6.3 Energy ................................................................................................................................... 33 6.4 Food ...................................................................................................................................... 35 7. Mapping of institutional stakeholders governing climate change responses ............................ 37 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 40 Appendix .............................................................................................................................................. 41 2 Glossary of terms Climate Resilience: To adjust and develop in a proactive manner, reducing negative impacts of the changing climate conditions. Climate resilient development can be defined as: “Implement a holistic climate risk strategy that overcomes barriers and launches fully funded key adaptation initiatives 'How can we reach our development targets while accounting for current and future risks?”1 Informal settlements: Areas where groups of housing have been constructed on land that the occupants have no legal claim to. They are also often unplanned settlements where housing is not in compliance with current planning and building regulations 2. Peri-urban settlement: A name given to the grey area which is neither entirely urban nor purely rural in the traditional sense; it is at most the partly urbanized rural area. Whatever definition may be given to it, it cannot eliminate some degree of arbitrariness.3 1 CDKN Glossary of Terms: Climate Resilient Development. Available at: http://cdkn.org/glossary/item/?uri=http://reegle.info/glossary/1242 2 OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1351 3 Defining the peri-urban: rural-urban linkages and institutional connections. N.d. Available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x8050t/x8050t02.htm 3 1. Background to the Future Climate for Africa Program Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) is a five-year research program jointly funded by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). It aims to generate a ‘decision-relevant’ body of scientific evidence on climate change that can effectively support long-term planning and climate-resilient development on the African continent. It will also take steps to ensure that climate projections can be integrated into decision making and build the evidence base for delivering climate services in Africa. FCFA projects will be delivered through collaborative partnerships of the world’s best researchers. Four Regional Program Consortiums (RPCs) have now been selected. Collectively they will cover issues in East, West, Central and Southern Africa. The Consortia are: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis 2050 (AMMA-2050) AMMA- 2050 will improve understanding of how the West African monsoon will be affected by climate change in the coming decades – and help West African societies prepare and adapt. Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) HyCRISTAL will develop new understanding of climate change and its impacts in East Africa, working with the region’s decision-makers to manage water for a more climate-resilient future. Uncertainty reduction in Models for Understanding Development Applications (UMFULA) The UMFULA project (‘river’ in Zulu) will provide new insights and more reliable information about climate processes and extremes in Central and Southern Africa. UMFULA will partner with agencies and universities in Tanzania and Malawi to link the information to development decisions with long-term consequences. Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands (FRACTAL) FRACTAL will improve scientific knowledge of future climate trends in Southern Africa, deepen urban policy-makers’ understanding of how climate change will affect water and energy services, and support them to explore climate-resilient development choices. For more information on each Consortia and the institutions involved readers should refer to the FCFA Summary which can be found online @: http://futureclimateafrica.org/wp- content/uploads/2015/09/Introducing-FCFA-Brochure-21-Sept-Double-Lores.pdf 4 The FCFA’s approach to informing decision making in Africa The FCFA recognises that bridging the gap between the disciplines of fundamental climate science and economic decision making is a challenge. It also recognises that economic development decisions being made today must be resilient to future climates, or risk creating maladaptation. For these reasons, the FCFA has argued that, in designing their research programs, RPCs should focus on the key ‘long-lived’ economic decisions. The FCFA has asked researchers to approach the design of research from the ‘development end’ of the challenge. This creative challenge is at the heart of the FCFA program; it will ensure the integrity of climate science and that the science produced can help shape the outcomes Africa needs. As part of the program, the FCFA has identified a critical need to understand institutional decision- making structures in Africa and ensure that scientific analysis developed through FCFA research is ‘decision relevant’. This approach is particularly relevant where immediate development priorities result in limited institutional capacity to think over a longer 5-40 year time horizon. In response, a project has been commissioned to help the FCFA identify and understand the political economy of long-lived economic decision making in Africa . This understanding will be complemented by support to help research consortia develop strategies for influencing institutional decision making. As a result of this work, the FCFA expects to gain a clear understanding of the central institutions and processes that shape, and make, long-term economic decisions on the continent. It will also help to build understanding of how institutions access and reflect scientific insights. These insights will be used to support Consortia in the development of their research agendas and their approach to influencing major long-lived economic decisions. In the first phase of the project a Framework report was produced to provide a preliminary basis on which to conceptualise decision making processes relevant for climate change adaptation on the continent. As part of the second and current phase of work a series of country baseline studies are being developed. These aim to provide a basis for RPCs’ country level engagements. This report – the first in a series - focuses on supporting the Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands (FRACTAL) consortium by providing further background information on the decision making context relevant for one of their three urban City Labs – Lusaka in Zambia. 5 Acknowledgments : In developing this baseline the Pegasys team have been fortunate in being able to learn directly from the work delivered by the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre’s report Near-Term Climate Change in Zambia – what the research tells us produced as well as T he Zambia Technical Report produced by Bettina Koelle et al. in October 2014 as part of the FCFA scoping phase. It has also benefited from prior work delivered by the Pegasys team in 2011 as part of the Regional Climate Change Program’s hotspot case study report. Due to time and resource limitations this report has been delivered as a desk based exercise. It is recommended that, should FRACTAL or the FCFA see the value in extending the analysis begun in this report, a more