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Shantui (000680.SZ) January 4, 2016 DATA UPDATE Shantui (000680.SZ) Sell Equity Research Data Update: Fine-tuning earnings estimates Changes and Implications Investment Profile We fine-tune our 2015/16/17E EPS by -2%/-3%/-3% to reflect higher Low High operating expense ratio assumptions. Growth Growth Returns * Returns * Our 12-month target price is derived using cycle trough EV/GCI. Key risks Multiple Multiple include higher-than-expected dozer/excavator volume growth. Volatility Volatility Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th We do not view these changes as material, and there is no change to our Shantui (000680.SZ) investment thesis, rating or price target. Asia Pacific Industrials Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. Key data Current Price (Rmb) 7.65 12 month price target (Rmb) 3.80 Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 9,492.0 / 1,461.8 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E EPS (Rmb) New 0.04 (0.35) (0.30) (0.26) EPS revision (%) 0.0 (2.5) (2.7) (3.4) EPS growth (%) 111.3 (1,033.0) 14.6 14.3 EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 0.04 (0.35) (0.30) (0.26) P/E (X) 94.3 NM NM NM P/B (X) 1.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 20.7 NM NM NM Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 1.1 (11.1) (10.6) (10.1) CROCI (%) 7.5 (2.0) (0.9) (0.2) Price performance chart 13 5,700 12 5,400 11 5,100 10 4,800 9 4,500 8 4,200 7 3,900 6 3,600 5 3,300 4 3,000 Dec-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Shantui (L) Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 (R) Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 53.3 (13.8) 1.3 INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Rel. to Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 31.6 (1.7) (4.0) Asia Pacific Sell List Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12/31/2015 close. Coverage View: Neutral Tian Lu, CFA +852-2978-0748 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Jacqueline Du covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +86(10)6627-3147 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Frank Shi affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider +852-2978-0108 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. this report as only a single factor in making their investment Diana Zhao +65-6654-5191 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research January 4, 2016 Shantui (000680.SZ) Shantui: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Total revenue 7,269.5 4,277.5 3,842.7 4,031.5 Cash & equivalents 1,289.6 1,981.0 2,048.5 1,723.9 Cost of goods sold (6,193.9) (3,981.4) (3,566.6) (3,723.4) Accounts receivable 3,096.1 1,875.1 1,684.5 1,767.2 SG&A (873.6) (697.6) (619.1) (624.2) Inventory 2,129.3 1,418.0 1,319.2 1,428.1 R&D (70.0) (70.0) (70.0) (70.0) Other current assets 214.5 214.5 214.5 214.5 Other operating profit/(expense) (75.9) (61.8) (55.4) (55.8) Total current assets 6,729.5 5,488.6 5,266.6 5,133.7 EBITDA 334.1 (258.4) (191.1) (162.1) Net PP&E 2,828.4 2,622.3 2,409.3 2,236.2 Depreciation & amortization (278.1) (274.9) (277.4) (279.7) Net intangibles 713.3 687.3 661.3 635.3 EBIT 56.0 (533.3) (468.5) (441.9) Total investments 752.2 802.2 852.2 907.2 Interest income 39.3 18.1 27.7 28.7 Other long-term assets 187.3 187.3 187.3 187.3 Interest expense (234.8) (169.2) (169.2) (169.2) Total assets 11,210.8 9,787.8 9,376.7 9,099.8 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 58.2 50.0 50.0 55.0 Others 94.3 100.0 125.0 150.0 Accounts payable 2,769.6 1,854.4 1,856.6 1,938.2 Pretax profits 13.1 (534.4) (435.0) (377.4) Short-term debt 1,484.7 1,484.7 1,484.7 1,484.7 Income tax (41.0) 26.7 21.8 18.9 Other current liabilities 158.8 158.8 158.8 158.8 Minorities 74.3 74.5 43.5 41.6 Total current liabilities 4,413.1 3,497.8 3,500.1 3,581.7 Long-term debt 1,900.0 1,900.0 1,900.0 1,900.0 Net income pre-preferred dividends 46.4 (433.2) (369.8) (316.9) Other long-term liabilities 388.4 388.4 388.4 388.4 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 2,288.4 2,288.4 2,288.4 2,288.4 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 46.4 (433.2) (369.8) (316.9) Total liabilities 6,701.5 5,786.2 5,788.4 5,870.0 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 46.4 (433.2) (369.8) (316.9) Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 4,107.9 3,674.7 3,304.9 2,988.0 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.04 (0.35) (0.30) (0.26) Minority interest 435.5 361.0 317.5 275.9 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.04 (0.35) (0.30) (0.26) EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.04 (0.35) (0.30) (0.26) Total liabilities & equity 11,210.8 9,787.8 9,376.7 9,099.8 DPS (Rmb) 0.000.000.000.00 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 BVPS (Rmb) 3.31 2.96 2.66 2.41 Free cash flow yield (%) 10.5 8.6 2.1 (1.9) Growth & margins (%) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Ratios 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Sales growth (28.3) (41.2) (10.2) 4.9 CROCI (%) 7.5 (2.0) (0.9) (0.2) EBITDA growth 489.1 (177.3) 26.0 15.1 ROE (%) 1.1 (11.1) (10.6) (10.1) EBIT growth 115.7 NM 12.1 5.7 ROA (%) 0.4 (4.1) (3.9) (3.4) Net income growth 111.3 NM 14.6 14.3 ROACE (%) 2.1 (6.3) (5.6) (4.8) EPS growth 111.3 (1,033.0) 14.6 14.3 Inventory days 137.0 162.6 140.1 134.7 Gross margin 14.8 6.9 7.2 7.6 Receivables days 167.0 212.1 169.1 156.3 EBITDA margin 4.6 (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) Payable days 181.2 212.0 189.9 186.0 EBIT margin 0.8 (12.5) (12.2) (11.0) Net debt/equity (%) 46.1 34.8 36.9 50.9 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 0.3 NM NM NM Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Valuation 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Net income pre-preferred dividends 46.4 (433.2) (369.8) (316.9) D&A add-back 278.1 274.9 277.4 279.7 P/E (analyst) (X) 94.3 NM NM NM Minorities interests add-back (74.3) (74.5) (43.5) (41.6) P/B (X) 1.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 Net (inc)/dec working capital 122.6 1,017.0 291.7 (110.1) EV/EBITDA (X) 20.7 NM NM NM Other operating cash flow 205.4 101.2 91.5 85.6 EV/GCI (X) 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 Cash flow from operations 578.1 885.4 247.4 (103.4) Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital expenditures (72.6) (42.8) (38.4) (80.6) Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 85.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments 13.1 (42.8) (38.4) (80.6) Dividends paid (common & pref) (214.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inc/(dec) in debt (736.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows 0.0 (151.2) (141.5) (140.6) Cash flow from financing (951.0) (151.2) (141.5) (140.6) Total cash flow (357.9) 691.4 67.5 (324.6) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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