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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted By CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) HKUST Student Research October 31, 2012 Initiation Asia Pacific Industrials BUY Last closing price: HK$10.44 Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157.HK) 12-month price target: HK$14.22 Right product, right strategy, and right timing Sources of opportunity Stock price chart We initiate coverage on Zoomlion with a “BUY” rating and a target HK$ price of HK$ 14.22, represent an upside of 36.2%. Our positive view is 12 based on: (1) We believe the market overlooked China’s robust demand growth for heavy construction machinery and Zoomlion is 11 best positioned to benefit from such rising demand; (2) China’s construction machinery industry is going through consolidation; 10 Zoomlion is the only producer remains in net cash position and we 9 believe it will thrive through the consolidation process. (3) Zoomlion supplies into China’s machinery upgrading demand, which is driven 8 by China’s industrialization deepening process, while construction activities might remain weak in 2013, robust upgrading demand 7 Nov-11 Jan-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 would bolster Zoomlion’s earnings growth to exceed industry average; (4) Zoomlion’s product mix is best geared for a recovery in Zoomlion HSI (rebased) Source: Bloomberg, as of October 31, 2012 construction activities, concrete and crane machinery; (5) Zoomlion is trading at 36.5% discount to its H-share comparable universe. Catalysts Stock price performance (%) 3 months 6 months 12 months . We expect a recovery in China’s FAI and real estate construction Absolute (2.8) 7.8 0.0 activities in 2013, after the new government takes office. Zoomlion Relative to Hang Seng Index (8.1) (1.1) (11.8) Source: Bloomberg, HKUST team analysis, as of October 31, 2012 is the cheapest construction activity recovery play in HK market. When the new government announces plans to resume FAI Market data projects, the stock’s multiples would expand. H Shares Outstanding (mm) 1,430 . We believe the market under-estimates Zoomlion’s earnings H Shares Free Float 100% growth potential,, under-values China’s demand for heavy Total Shares Outstanding 7,706 machinery. 1Q2013 results in April 2014 would be a medium term H Share % of Total Share 18.56% H Share Market Cap (HK$mm) 14,930 positive catalyst. If Zoomlion can prove it is increasing its revenue Total Market Cap (HK$mm) 80,450 exposure of heavy equipment, we believe the market would re- Share Price (HK$) 10.44 evaluate the stock’s multiples. 52 Week Low (HK$) 7.60 52 Week High (HK$) 12.48 % of 52 Week High 83.7% Fundamentals 30 Day Average Daily Volume (HK$mm) 19.22 . Strongest balance sheet in the sector – Zoomlion is the only 3 Month Average Daily Volume (HK$mm) 19.43 producer still in net cash position in the sector. It also offers Source: Bloomberg, HKUST team analysis, as of October 31, 2012 attractive ROE comparing to peers. Key data . Focus on managing receivables risks – management has shifted 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E focus onto managing receivables risks, we have conducted Growth Revenue 43.9% 13.6% 15.7% 17.0% detailed analysis and found this risk manageable. We believe Operating profit 66.5% 18.0% 11.4% 12.2% Net profit 72.9% 14.3% 82.4% 220.0% market should not discount Zoomlion for this risk. Margin . Smart positioning in excavator market – We believe Zoomlion is Gross margin 32.4% 31.4% 30.6% 29.7% Operating margin 20.7% 21.5% 20.7% 19.9% well position in concrete and crane machinery markets. And its Net margin 17.4% 17.5% 16.8% 16.2% Efficiency strategy to avoid highly competitive excavator market is prudent. Asset turnover 0.65 0.44 0.43 0.43 We would avoid excavator producers, such as Sany, as the Inventory days 157 250 250 250 Receivable days 271 485 465 460 industry is still in over-supply situation. Payable days 433 600 600 600 Return ROA 11.4% 7.7% 7.4% 7.1% RNOA 13.4% 9.1% 8.7% 8.3% Valuation ROE 22.8% 21.8% 20.5% 19.6% Profit margin 17.4% 17.5% 16.8% 16.2% Our target price of HK$14.22 implies a 2013E PE of 10.7x, which is still at Total asset turnover 0.65 0.44 0.43 0.43 discount of Zoomlion’s H-share comparable universes’ average Equity multiplier 2.02 2.85 2.81 2.80 Gearing forward PE ratio. We believe the stock presents an attractive Asset/Equity 0.65 0.44 0.43 0.43 Total liabilities/Equity 1.02 1.84 1.80 1.79 opportunity. Total interest-bearing debt / Equity 0.37 0.36 0.34 0.33 Net interest coverage 267.7x 28.2x 27.3x 27.1x Valuation P/E 9.9x 8.7x 7.8x 7.0x RisKs P/B 2.3x 1.9x 1.6x 1.4x Key investment risks include: (1) Macroeconomic risks , (2) EV/EBITDA 7.7x 7.0x 5.9x 5.1x Dividend yield 2.39% 2.86% 3.19% 3.58% Competition risks that may lead to margin erosion; (3) Reputation risks; Source: Bloomberg, HKUST team analysis, as of October 31, 2012 and (4) Credit risks. Contributing analysts: Disclaimer: This report is published for Becky Lu, [email protected] Daisy Li, [email protected] educational purposes only by students Byron Fan, [email protected] Marcus Chu, [email protected] competing in the CFA Institute Research Challenge. Refer to last page for details. CFA Institute Research Challenge - HKUST Student Research 1 October 31, 2012 Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157.HK) Business description Incorporated in 1999 and headquartered in Changsha, China, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (“Zoomlion” or “the Company”) is China’s second-largest and the world’s seventh-largest construction equipment manufacturer ranked by 2011 turnover, according to International Construction Yellow Table 2012. Benefiting from China’s booming property development and significant infrastructure investment, Zoomlion has been growing at a stunning rate in the past decade, especially in its core products concrete machinery and crane machinery (Exhibit 1 and 2). Exhibit 1: Zoomlion has experienced tremendous growth in Exhibit 2: Concrete machinery and crane machinery segments the past, mostly driven by the domestic market are the two biggest revenue contributors for Zoomlion Revenue composition by geography, since 2006 Zoomlion’s revenue breakdown by operating segments 100% RMBbn Finance lease services 50 46.3 80% Other machinary products 40 24% Material handling 32.2 34% 34% machinary and systems 60% 46% 30 40% Earth working machinary 20.8 20 40% Road construction and 13.5 pile foundation machinary 58% 10 9.0 Environmental and 4.6 20% 44% 46% 35% 34% sanitation machinary Crane machinary 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0% Concrete mahinary Domestic Overseas 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012 Source: Annual reports Source: Annual reports Zoomlion controls dominant market share in China’s heavy machinery market, which has higher entry barriers and competition is highly consolidated. The Company has a diversified product portfolio consisting of concrete machinery, crane machinery, earth working machinery, environmental and sanitation machinery, road construction and pile foundation machinery, and material handling machinery. In 2012, Zoomlion became China’s top producer of concrete pumps, it is also the largest supplier of tower cranes, and ranks in top 3 positions for producing large-tonnage cranes. The Company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on October 12, 2000 (stock code: 000157), and on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong on December 23, 2010 (stock code: 1157). It is so far the only Chinese construction machinery manufacturer with A+H listing status. Industry overview and competitive positioning The robust sales growth of construction equipment over the past decade was spurred by rapid urbanization, explosive fixed asset investments and increasing mechanization needs. Sales growth were extremely strong from 2009 to 1H2011, driven by the government’s RMB 4trillion stimulus package. The industry slowed down from 2H201 onwards after the government implemented austerity measures while only heavy machinery sales (concrete, tower cranes, large-tonnage truck cranes and high-end excavators) stayed robust. We remain positive on the industry’s long term outlook. As China’s urbanization and infrastructure per capita rates are still below developed countries standard (Exhibit 3 and 4). The need to replace labor is rising because of wage inflation and increasing quality requirements. We are particularly bullish about China’s heavy machinery demand, as the country’s urbanization and industrialization process further deepens, demand will increasingly shifts towards heavy construction equipment. For example in Shanghai, the concrete pumps sold this year are mostly the upgraded high-end and high-boom length models. Large-tonnage cranes are increasingly widely applied on building and industrials sites to replace trucks and manual labor. Exhibit 3: Urbanization level in China is increasing steadily, yet Exhibit 4: Transportation infrastructure in China has large still has a large potential relative to other regions potential to improve its coverage and penetration Urban population growth in China, compared with other regions, 2011 figures Railway/highway length relative to total land area 80% 77.42% km railway per 10,000 km2 km highway per km2 China 1,400 3.5 70% 1,200 3.0 60% 1,000 2.5 51.27% 52.08% 48.34% 49.95% 800 2.0 50% 45.89% 46.99% 44.34% 600 1.5 40% 400 1.0 200 0.5 0 0.0 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, United Nations World Urbanization Prospects 2011 Source: Department of Transportation, CIA the World Fact Book, Goldman Sachs CFA Institute Research Challenge - HKUST Student Research 2 October 31, 2012 Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157.HK) Key products marKets analysis We conducted detailed analysis on the various categories of construction equipment, the three most important products categories are concrete machinery (about 30% total industry value, based on 1H2012 industry sales estimates), crane (26%) and excavators (23%).
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