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Construction Machinery Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China 18 October 2013 Industrials Construction Manufacturing machinery Industry Update Phyllis Wang Research Analyst Continued healthy demand recovery (-) - - [email protected] of wheel loader in Sept China’s wheel-loader sales volume in Sept 2013 up 17% yoy, in line Focus stocks According to 21-Sun, China’s wheel loader sales volume (including exports) Lonking (3339.HK),HKD1.68 Buy Price Target recorded 13,176 units in September, up 16.9% yoy. We think this was due HKD1.98 mainly to healthy demand recovery in the domestic market (+24% yoy). For the Zoomlion (1157.HK),HKD7.17 Hold Price Target first time this year, ytd sales volume growth has turned from negative to HKD6.01 positive, which was +0.1% yoy (vs. -1.4% in 8M13 and -30% in 2012). Total Source: Deutsche Bank sales volume in 3Q13 was up 14.5% yoy, largely in line with our half-year volume assumption (14% yoy rise in 2H13). Lonking’s market share stabilized in September mom The combined market share of the top five players (Lingong, Liugong, Lonking, Xiagong and XCMG) was stable at 74.5% in 9M13. (vs. 74.2% in 8M13 and 72.4% in 2012). Lonking sold 19,320 units (-8% yoy) in 9M13, with a market share of 14% (vs. 14.2% in 8M13 and 14.8% in 2012). We note that Lonking and Linggong are losing market share to XCMG and Xiagong in 3Q13. We think this is mainly because Lonking continues its prudent sales strategy. However, Lonking’s sales volume of wheel loaders rose 24% yoy in September to 1,569 units with a stabilized market share of 11.9%, vs. 11.8% in August. Healthy demand recovery on track; we still prefer Lonking Our recent checks with some major producer peers (like Liugong and Xiagong) indicate that the demand recovery is in line with seasonal patterns. They see more stable growth in western China, which we believe is the result of acceleration in infrastructure constructions. A tight credit environment will prompt potential clients to prefer products with less default risk, such as wheel loaders and small-sized excavators. Thus we maintain our view on wheel loaders as the best segment in 2013, and maintain our wheel-loader sales volume assumption in China of 14% yoy growth in 2H13. Rising replacement demand may further support this recovery in 2014. Although Lonking lost market share in 3Q13, we think it will not further drop in 4Q13 and it is likely to regain it in 2014. We recommend investors to Buy Lonking (65% sales exposure to wheel loaders) on strong earnings recovery. We reiterate our Hold on Zoomlion, as concrete machinery (its core product) has still not bottomed out. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ABOVE ACCURATELY REFLECT PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHORS ABOUT THE SUBJECT COMPANY(IES) AND ITS(THEIR) SECURITIES. THEY HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY COMPENSATION FOR PROVIDING A SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATION OR VIEW IN THIS REPORT. FOR OTHER DISCLOSURES PLEASE VISIT http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr MICA(P) 054/04/2013. .
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