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Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market by Ian Fredericks, David Peress and Doug Jung

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Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market by Ian Fredericks, David Peress and Doug Jung SMARTER PERSPECTIVE: RETAIL INDUSTRY Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market By Ian Fredericks, David Peress and Doug Jung Prior to 2017, the largest number of The variability of COVID-19 lockdowns lenders that forced quick and retail stores to close in any given year and restrictions due to the state-by- fateful decisions. occurred during the financial crisis state approach with which government in 2008. That changed in 2017, the responded to the virus created three At the outset, the variables incident first year of the oft described “retail distinct outcomes. First, lockdowns to these decisions – skyrocketing apocalypse”, and new records have pushed the most distressed retailers unemployment, changes in consumer been set in every subsequent year but into bankruptcy and a wave of filings behavior, store geography, store format, for 2018, which fell just shy of 2008’s occurred beginning in late April. impact to GOLVs and NOLVs, and the number. Indeed, so many stores closed Second, stressed companies such as market reaction to IP values — were all in 2019 that many industry experts JCPenney, without bankruptcy in their unknown. For retailers, lenders, and their didn’t believe 2020 would be able to near-term outlook, were forced onto advisors, the ability to quickly clarify how surpass that high-water mark. But, with an irreversible path towards a filing these variables impacted both business the help of COVID-19, 2020 set another or sale. Third, there was tremendous and asset values became key to informing record with over 11,000 closures. market uncertainty for retailers and transformative decisions. 12,000 11,157 Retail store closures 9,879 in the U.S. 10,000 8,139 8,000 2020 was a record year for retail store closures in the U.S., far 6,163 5,864 exceeding 2019, the previous 6,000 annual record holder. 4,000 2,000 – 2008 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Coresight & CoStar Research Finding Certainty prior-period sales in store closing and GOB Valuations & Field Exams settings. Hilco would have expected that As a market leader in operating store number to approach 200% in a normalized These insights and timely data sharing closing sales (Hilco was involved with environment, but team-oriented clothing allow retailers to maximize their liquidity approximately one-third of all 2020 U.S. stock fell out of favor with consumers while and asset valuations by increasing NOLVs closures in addition to stores in Canada sports were shut down, hurting sales and and therefore ABL availability, while and Australia), in acting as a buy and sell driving less overall traffic. providing detailed information to provide side advisor for retail IP, and in restructuring comfort to their secured lenders. These retail leases, Hilco collects robust and Similarly, store closing sale performance data sets augment over 20 years of 1,000+ proprietary real-time market data. This across different store formats varied. annual appraisal and field exam report data supports Hilco’s valuation and field Those that performed the best were data to enable all parties to make better exam professionals, creating a One Hilco anchor stores at malls (often times informed decisions – open to buy, rent, approach to support our retail, lending, Department Stores), which are large, payroll, or any other decision stemming and advisory partners. convenient, and have multiple entrances from the balance sheet and liquidity – faster. and exits. Specialty and in-line mall retail Monitoring over 11 retail segments stores, which require customers to walk Real-time data sharing was particularly during the early pandemic period store through anchor stores or main mall important given market variability in closing sales, Hilco quickly confirmed entrances, struggled. Only in cases where 2020. In Q2, GDP fell 31.4% only to its early thesis that retail segments and a brand enjoyed significant goodwill – rebound by 33.1% in Q3. This reflected store formats were not created equal. loyal customers with a propensity to view government stimulus and changing Certain segments and formats clearly the brand favorably and motivated to act consumer behavior, setting a record performed better or worse than others as on those attributes – did in-line mall stores swing. Owing to that volatility and to well as in comparison to their pre-COVID see an appreciable lift as part of a store ensure they had the most precise values, expectations. Hilco found that closing closing or GOB sale. many lenders doubled the number of Department Stores – boosted by numerous their collateral updates. Those which had value-oriented chains – were particularly These insights and Hilco’s ability to annual updates shifted to bi-annual while resilient. 2020 Sales in a store closing or gauge intangible variables like goodwill, those with bi-annual shifted to quarterly. GOB context averaged almost 300% of the which can materially affect asset values, Because each update requires new 2019 same prior-year period. Alternatively, helped to provide needed certainty to data, management meetings, and store and despite tremendous demand for retailers, lenders, and their advisors as visits, limiting client friction is incredibly outdoor goods, some Sporting Goods they considered their options and made important. This is especially true in a retailers barely achieved 100% of their determinative decisions. rapidly changing environment. 2.50 COVID Average 2.00 Multiplier by Segment 2020 1.50 1.20 1.00 The Multiplier is Gross Sales, represented as a percentage, 0.50 achieved during a sale and measured against the Gross Sales from the same period Year 0.00 Over Year. SHOES PET SUPPLIES PET FAMILY CLOTHING CLOTHING FAMILY SPORTING GOODS SPORTING FURNITURE STORES WOMEN’S CLOTHING WOMEN’S HOME FURNISHUNGS DEPARTMENT STORES DEPARTMENT SEWING & NEEDLEWORK CLOTHING ACCESSORIES CLOTHING Source: Hilco Global OFFICE STATIONARY & GIFT OFFICE STATIONARY Hilco Global is the Retail Industry Smarter partner for your business. Client friction can be eased through In a highly volatile market, the assumptions disposition experience. In the second streamlined data requests and store that drive valuations can be tested in half of 2020, the IP disposition market visits. This is relevant when conducting unprecedented ways. In 2020, Hilco was benefited from an influx of buyers an appraisal and field exam or multiple approached more times than in any other seeking to capitalize on the growth in appraisals (inventory, IP, FF&E, real estate) year for “second look” appraisals – instances e-commerce adoption. simultaneously by bundling data requests, where retailers or their lenders questioned visits, and store diligence into one assumptions and results from an initial Traditional brand management platforms – streamlined event. Where physical visits appraising source. In many of these Authentic Brands Group (ABG), Marquee, are not possible, digital solutions can be instances Hilco was comfortable providing Bluestar, and others continued to disrupt utilized for interviews and DC test counts appreciably higher NOLV’s due to its robust the market in 2020, but were also met with for field exam and borrowing base reports. in-market and real-time analytics driven new market entrants. These new entrants from events it was concurrently operating. included digital marketing platforms When separate providers are engaged This capability provided retailers with looking to aggregate brands and operate to appraise separate asset classes and much needed additional availability and them through a single consolidated central to conduct field exams, friction and lenders with comfort that their clients could service infrastructure, landlords, strategic delays can result from the need to withstand the current environment and acquirers, and other licensing platforms. reconcile report inputs like definitions should be supported. Overall, new and more diverse buyers fed and data points. When definitions for IP recoveries and will likely continue to do items like slow moving inventory, turn, Intellectual Property & Real Estate so at least in the near term – a welcome and gross margin calculations do not development for lenders and retailers in match between workflows, it creates a Early on, the largest open-ended valuation search of increased availability. considerable amount of work for the questions of 2020 were with respect lender and the client in order to reconcile to Intellectual Property values, one of Notably, after Hilco successfully partnered such issues in the final reports. the fastest maturing sources of lending with Authentic Brands Group, Simon availability. Physical restrictions drastically Property Group, and Brookfield (then Leveraging one firm with collective market accelerated e-commerce adoption and GGP) in 2016 for the acquisition and leading expertise alleviates these concerns, quickly shifted both consumer behavior subsequent operation of Aeropostale, as Hilco did for its clients throughout 2020. and expectations. Indeed, Hilco estimates landlords also reemerged as prominent Providing borrowers more time to run that online adoption advanced five years in market participants. Motivated by their businesses while delivering a better 2020 alone. However, increased adoption Aeropostale’s successful model, landlords and more precise work product delivers also cannibalized brick and mortar sales became acquisitive to posture both much needed certainty in an uncertain while being less profitable. offensively and defensively. No group market. That certainty is created with
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