D-zine Men’s Apparel 2019 YOUnivesity Deal Challenge London School of Economics and Political Science 1 Jasmine Hu | Carl Wei | Susan Chen Agenda 1 Executive Summary 2 Company Profile 3 Deliverable 1: Industry Analysis I. Industry Overview II. Porter’s Five Forces III. Opportunities and Risks 4 Deliverable 2: Buyer Recommendation I. Analysis Framework & Value Perspectives II. Strategic Buyer III. Financial Buyer IV. Final Recommendation 5 Deliverable 3: Trademark Infringement 6 Appendix 2 Executive Summary 3 Executive Summary Stronger emphasis on digital channels and growing opportunities in the international market have been Industry the key drivers within the luxury industry. More sales are driven by the younger generation and their purchase of casualwear. Deliverable 1 With declining sales, DMA needs to restore growth by focusing on online channels and could Company potentially consider introducing new products targeting millennials and Generation-Z. Financial Lion Capital is the best financial buyer for DMA due to the add-on effects as a result of DMA joining its existing portoflio of luxury companies. The implied value range from LBO analysis is $600-$787m with Buyer an expected IRR of 17%-21%. Strategic Michael Kors is the best strategic buyer because of their strategic alignment and synergy realization Deliverable 2 capability. Based on our analysis of discounted cashflows, precedent transactions and comparable Buyer companies, we estimate a price range of $699-$916m. We recommend the debtholders seek Michael Kors as the best buyer as Michael Kors is willing and Overall prepared to pay the highest price for DMA. Recommended price is $807m. Trademark We calculate the damages as the licensing royalty fees that should have been paid to DMA from FPA. Deliverable 3 The better strategy for DMA in the future would be to establish a relationship with FPA by liecnsing its Infringement trademark. 4 Company Profile Company Overview DMA Timeline Company Acquired International Defaulted Founded by PE firm Expansion on principle payments • D-zine Men’s Apparel is a men’s clothing and luxury products company based in the United States • Owns 99 stores globally, with 89 in the US and 10 overseas 1924 2012 2013 2017 • Also sells through upscale department stores and online Historical and Forecast Financials DMA Revenue by Source ($k) DMA company owned stores 300,000 120 250,000 14 100 8 11 14 12 10 10 10 10 10 200,000 80 150,000 60 99 99 99 95 100,000 40 92 89 89 89 89 89 50,000 20 - 0 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 5 Domestic Stores International Stores Department Stores Online Domestic Stores International Stores Industry Analysis Deliverable 1 6 Industry Overview: Men’s & Boys Apparel Key Information • Men’s and boys apparel made up 26% of the global apparel market in 2017 • Experienced growth of 3.7% in 2017, outperforming womenswear which grew at 3.3% • Key growth drivers: social media influences, renewed emphasis on appearance for men, dress codes relaxing globally • Sales of men’s and boy’s suits in the US projected to grow at CAGR of 1.1% from 2018 to 2021 - not as high as overall apparel sector growth due to increasing popularity of casual wear and fast fashion which has placed pressure on tailored clothing 120,000 US Men's and Boys Apparel Sales ($m) US Suits (Men’s) Sales ($m) 1,880 100,000 1,858 1,838 80,000 1,840 1,834 1,818 60,000 1,799 1,800 40,000 1,780 1,783 1,774 1,773 1,777 1,772 1,772 20,000 1,760 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1,720 Coats and Jackets Blazers Suits Trousers Shirts Jerseys, Sweatshirts and Pullovers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 Source: Statistica 2018, Retail Sector Industry Overview: Luxury Products Key Information • US market generates most revenue globally for luxury goods, accounting for US$71,202m of sales in 2018 • However, the US luxury goods market has projected growth of only 0.8% (CAGR 2018 to 2022) • Internationally, the luxury goods market is projected to grow by 2.1% (CAGR 2018-2022) • Luxury menswear growth specifically is being driven by strong demand in China, India and the UAE Global Luxury Products Revenue US Luxury Goods Market Revenue ($m) Growth (%) 80000 0.8% CAGR 17% 70000 60000 15% 50000 40000 30000 8% 20000 6% 10000 4% 4% 4% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% Luxury Leather Goods Luxury Watches & Jewelry Luxury Fashion 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Luxury Eyewear Prestige Cosmetics & Fragrances 8 Source: Statistica 2018, Deloitte Global Powers of Luxury Goods 2018, eshopworld Industry Overview: Instore vs Online Key Information • Online presence continues to increase in the importance of luxury good sales in the US - expected to make up nearly 15% of the market by 2022 • More brands selling in online marketplace portals such as Yoox Net-A-Porter, MatchesFashion, and Farfetch • Generation Y and Z accounted for 85% of 2017’s growth in luxury goods sales - value digital interactions with brands through online sites and social media content Sales Channels of luxury goods in the US (%) Online Marketplace Portals 91.914 90.635 89.266 87.826 86.39 85.046 13.61 14.954 10.734 12.174 8.086 9.365 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Offline Online 9 Source: Statistica 2018, Knowledge@Wharton, Bain&Co, YNAP, MatchesFashion, Farfetch Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers Products primarily sourced from independent suppliers so DMA has medium bargaining power over suppliers – but switching costs may be high due to experience needed from manufacturers Bargaining power of consumers Industry rivalry Threat of new entrants Individual buyers generally have price inelastic Medium-High competition between many brands Threat of new entrants low within luxury demand for these goods and have low goods sector due to the importance of bargaining power – but bargaining power of within the industry – competition likely to increase due to brand value – but online sales and social the use of social media as companies tailor their approach customers heightened by power held by media advertising has reduced barriers to towards the younger generation department store customers. entry, so threat of new entrants increasing Threat of substitutes Low threat of substitutes as product well differentiated with strong brand and high quality as well as typically high customer loyalty for menswear – but counterfeit goods poses threat for DMA’s brand and products 10 1See appendix for each detailed Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Opportunities Facing DMA Online Presence International Expansion Social Media and Technology • Online sales =15% of US luxury goods sales by • Key markets for expansion: India where the • Generation Y and Z made up 85% of 2022 luxury market forecasted growth is at 5.1% 2017’s luxury goods sales growth • Room to expand DMA’s online sales which in CAGR, Argentina at 6.5% CAGR, Malaysia • DMA should focus on young 2017, only accounted for 3.58% of total sales at 6.5% CAGR and China at 2.6% CAGR demographic • DMA can establish online presence to tailor • Driven primarily by the growing middle class • Use of social media platforms to: sales approach towards millennials who want and increasing formal market power over engage, advertise and update brand’s an extension of in-store experience online with the black market image towards younger demographic the added convenience • However, must ensure expansion is • Use of AR and AI in shopping • However, must strike balance between accompanied with local expertise, experience – such as LVMH “Virtual accessibility and exclusivity – or may damage operating experience, and available Adviser”, YOOX’s “Try, Share and DMA’s brand value resources or success may be hindered Shop” How millennials find high-end fashion or luxury item trends (UK 2017) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Social media 21.8% Brand's website 15.7% Fashion websites 13% Friends/family 12.7% Magazines 12.4% Blogs/vlogs 10% Celebrities 10% Catwalk videos 3.3% Other 0.4% 11 Source: Statistica 2018, Bain&Co, Deloitte Global Powers of Luxury Goods 2018, eshopworld Risks Facing DMA Reliance on the US Market Department Store Sales Political Instability • US luxury market growth is slowing • DMA is over-reliant on department store • US-Sino trade war has caused tariffs on with projected growth of CAGR 0.8% sales - loss of one department store customer the majority of US and Chinese exports compared to the projected global growth caused a huge fall in revenues in 2014 • US Luxury products have so far not been rate of 2.1% • Department stores have high customer power hit by tariffs, but could occur in future due • DMA is mainly concentrated in the US • Risk for DMA as US department store to rising tensions (89/99 stores in the US) revenues have fallen by an annualised rate of • Tariffs have been placed on Chinese • Risks to future growth of DMA as may 4.1% from 2013 to 2018 due to competition imports of fibres and fabrics such as not be well positioned to take advantage from e-commerce stores that offer leathers, silk, wools of increasing demand in emerging convenience, more inventories and lower • Could impact COGS for DMA which is market economies prices due to low overheads heavily reliant on these Major US Department Store Closings Value of U.S.