Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities: Lessons from and

Monica Trujillo Amado Ordonez Rafael Hernandez

Oxfam First published by Oxfam GB in 2000

© Oxfam GB 2000

ISBN 0 85598 420 1

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This book converted to digital file in 2010 Contents

Acknowledgements 5 References and background reading 69

Abbreviations and acronyms 6 Index 70

Preface 7 Tables Remittances from Salvadorans in the USA and 1 Introduction 10 aid from the USA 20 Areas of priority for emergency work 22 Background 10 Hurricanes and damage caused across the Methodology 10 region 26 Physical characteristics of the region 11 Poverty in Mexico and Central America 32 Outline of contents 11 Families headed by women 33 2 Assessment of threats and risks 13 Women's earnings as a proportion of men's earnings, and corresponding levels of Identification and analysis of threats 13 illiteracy 33 A typology of natural threats 14 Proportion of the population of Central Risk of threats caused by human agency 19 America living in poverty 34 Evaluation and levels of risks 22 Hygiene and living conditions 35 9 Rates of infant and maternal mortality 36 3 Assessment of vulnerability 27 10 Causes of infant mortality 36 Technical focus on vulnerability 27 11 Health services in the region 37 Political focus on vulnerability 28 _ 12 Dietary and nutritional conditions 37 Social focus on vulnerability 30 13 Vulnerability among Mexican women 39 A regional view of social vulnerability 30 14 Vulnerability among Guatemalan women 46 A country-by-country view of social 15 Vulnerability among women in vulnerability 30 (by region) 46 16 Vulnerability among Nicaraguan women 48 17 4 Assessment of local capacity 51 Involvement of women in social organisations The institutional framework 51 in 49 18 Disasters and civil society 56 National capacity for emergency response in the region 55 Relevant actors and initiatives in the region 58 19 Building codes for high-risk areas 62

5 Progress and needs in disaster Maps 75 management 61 Mexico and Central America: Prevention and mitigation 61 tectonic plates, and geological faults, and Preparedness 62 hurricane patterns Information and training 64 Mexico: natural disasters - natural risks and vulnerabilities 6 Lessons and challenges 66 Central America: risks of earthqukes and volcanic activity How to work in disasters? 66 Central America: risks of floods, landslides Emergencies versus development 67 and drought Resources and finance 68 Conclusions 68

Acknowledgements

The following people were involved in this The original report was published by Oxfam in exercise: two consultants from Mexico and Nicaragua in 1999 under the title Mapeo tie Central America; a specialist from the Riesgos y Vulnerabilidad en Centroamerica y Emergencies Department of Oxfam GB, and Mexico: Estudio de capacidades locales para staff from Oxfam's offices in the region. trabajar en situaciones de emergencia (copies Leaders of indigenous, campesino, and women's available free of charge from Oxfam Regional organisations in the region contributed Office, Altamira D. Este, Casa 322 y 323, their knowledge and grassroots experience Managua, email: [email protected]). It during the visits to high-risk communities. was translated from Spanish by Sophie Bond, Representatives from a range of government Caroline Fox, and Claire Idle. It was edited bodies and civil-society organisations also and adapted for publication as an Oxfam participated as interviewees. Working Paper by Deborah Eade. Abbreviations and acronyms

ALIDES Central American Alliance for IFRCS International Federation of Sustainable Development Red Cross/Red Crescent CENAPRED National Centre for the Societies Prevention of Disasters INSIVUMEH National Institute of (Mexico) Seismology, Vulcanology, CEPREDENAC Co-ordinating Centre for the Meteorology, and Hydrology Prevention of Natural (Guatemala) Disasters in Central America ITCZ Intertropical Convergence CEPRODE Centre for Disaster Protection Zone () LA RED Network of Social Studies for CESCO Centre for Research and the Prevention of Natural Control of Pollutants Disasters in Latin America (Honduras) MSF Medecins Sans Frontieres CNE National Emergencies OAS Organisation of American Commission () States COCOPA Peace Conciliation OFDA US Office for Disaster Commission (Mexico) Response COEN National Committee for PAHO Pan-American Health Emergencies (El Salvador) Organisation (Organizacion CONRED National Commission for the Panamericana de la Salud, Reduction of Disasters OPS) (Guatemala) SARH Department of Agriculture COPECO Permanent Commission for and Water Resources Contingencies (Honduras) (Mexico) EMNDC High Command of National SINAPROC National System for Civil Civil Defence (Nicaragua) Protection (Mexico) FACS Augusto Cesar Sandino SINRED National System for the Foundation (Nicaragua) Reduction of Disasters FLACSO Latin American Faculty of (Guatemala) Social Sciences UNAM Autonomous University of ICRC International Committee of Mexico (UNAM) the Red Cross IDRND International Decade for the Reduction of Natural Disasters

6 Preface

In March 1997 a multidisciplinary team was Casitas . The resulting losses of the two commissioned by Oxfam GB to identify the risks disasters combined were estimated at US$1,500 of disasters — whether of natural origin or human million, a significant amount for such a fragile agency — throughout Mexico and Central economy. Guatemala and El Salvador suffered America. Their findings, reported in this less damage overall, though the effects were no Working Paper, demonstrated the urgent need to less serious for the people involved: in El find ways to reduce the degree of vulnerability Salvador there were some 85,000 victims, and in faced by many urban and rural communities in Guatemala up to 100,000 people had to be the region. It was initially hoped that it would be evacuated from their homes. The most severely possible to set out the framework for a Disaster affected regions were those that had been Preparedness Plan which, along with the identified in the Oxfam study as high-risk areas, development programmes that Oxfam GB was hit by land-slides in Tegucigalpa and fierce supporting, would help to articulate the research floods in the River Coco and the Sula valley, to team's vision of reshaping and uniting emergency name but a few. The longer-term consequences relief with rehabilitation and development of Mitch have included the outbreak of rat-borne activities. disease in Nicaragua, resulting from contam- inated and damaged sanitation systems and No one imagined then that the El Nino exacerbated by inadequate public health phenomenon, which brought drought to provision — something highlighted in the study. southern Honduras and western Nicaragua and contributed to the region's greatest recorded loss This comprehensive review of the threats of woodland through forest fires, would and risks of disasters across the region is thus eventually result in the biggest environmental particularly pertinent. Its focus on the links catastrophe in recent years; or that this in turn between socio-economic realities, policies, and would lead to the serious questioning of social and the dynamics of planning in a context where economic policies which have been so detrimental the limits of vulnerability are essentially a to huge numbers of people, particularly human responsibility is perhaps one of its most important contributions. The maps showing indigenous communities, women, and children. the regional patterns of risk and vulnerability But the fact is that Hurricane Mitch, which enable us to appreciate the importance of risk devastated Central America in November 1998, management in order to reduce vulnerability was not only what the 1999 World Disasters Report and insecurity and achieve sustainable terms 'a super-disaster'1 — the third-strongest development. hurricane of the century—but also an occurrence which magnified the already severe degrees of The methodology adopted in the study allows poverty and vulnerability in the region. one to map out and evaluate the threats and risks of various kinds of disaster in the region, Mitch, which brought to Central America a and can be adapted for use in other settings. The whole year's rainfall in a few hours, affected the risk of exposure to phenomena such as lives of six million people. Between 10,000 and hurricanes, seismic and volcanic activity, floods, 15,000 people lost their lives and 2.5 million landslides, tidal waves, and droughts is widely became temporarily dependent upon aid. In recognised; likewise risks and threats that are Honduras, up to 70 per cent of export crops political in nature, such as the armed conflicts were lost. Eighty per cent of the country's that engulfed much of the region from the aqueducts were damaged and thousands of 1970s until very recently. Conflicts and social public and domestic sanitation facilities were unres,t were themselves linked to the ruined: some 100,000 latrines were destroyed in widespread insecurity, and these links are the capital alone. In Nicaragua, thousands lost explored in the study. Other risks are linked to their lives; in addition, five villages were buried the environmental crisis, whose effects may be in the debris produced by the eruption of the irreversible and may in turn provoke major Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

disasters. Examples include the extensive pressures and environmental sustainability. Both deforestation of the region, the reduction of involved crucial issues such as local development, water resources, and solid-waste contamination. decentralisation, transparency, good governance and Perhaps the most surprising elements of the institution-building ... We look to donors and study, however, concern its depiction of international financial institutions to continue their vulnerability on a regional scale. Social, political, support and to do their utmost for more and quicker and economic realities are intimately linked to the debt relief. And we look to the United Nations family to factors that make people more or less vulnerable assist governments in ensuring that preparations are to risks and threats. In diis regard, the need for in place for the next hurricane season; and to help the ordinary women and men to be empowered countries of the region establish more just societies.2 through enabling them to participate in making decisions concerning their vulnerability is Less than six months after this statement, accorded a greater importance than technical however, seasonal tropical depressions caused considerations. For social vulnerability affects torrential rains in parts of Mexico, resulting in people's living conditions at the local and even the mudslides and floods that killed 400 people and individual or household levels, while these left more than 200,000 homeless in the poorer conditions relate to the resources available to a and more precarious districts of Puebla and given community and the extent to which they are Veracruz. The country's civil protection and excluded and marginalised by macro-economic emergency-response systems were the subject of and social policies. much public criticism. In terms of its far-reaching recommendations As in development work, it is important to concerning the links between development, differentiate between the vulnerabilities of men vulnerability, and emergencies — and the and women, and not fall into the trap of implications for aid and co-operation developing emergency responses or disaster- programmes — the risk-mapping exercise preparedness plans that do not take these represents far more than a report that merely differences into account. The study draws says who does what and with whom in disaster particular attention to the implications of female situations. Within Oxfam GB, the overall poverty in the region, the huge number of mapping methodology, with its focus on the women-maintained households, women's poor regional as well as the local level, has enabled us health and nutritional status, the low level of to target the high-priority areas in terms of their female participation in civil society, and other vulnerability to risk and threat. To achieve this, factors that will intensify their vulnerability in we have given top priority to strengthening local emergency situations. capacities and to re-thinking our assumptions The study shows the critical importance of about how to address or pre-empt emergencies seeing emergency relief and development work through an approach to development which as intimately linked with each other, and not as incorporates participation, but which is also mutually exclusive. This means that any efforts, aware of the need to differentiate between the at whatever level, to develop social and economic various roles of key actors such as the state and policies should be committed to reducing civil society. vulnerability as well as to involving community As the incidence of natural disasters world- structures in local-level disaster management. wide is increasing, while the structural risks One of the main lessons from the Mitch disaster posed by armed conflict, environmental is that of the need to move towards a culture of degradation, and pollution show little sign of disaster preparedness in every sphere, and to abating, it is both a great responsibility and an create living conditions and promote sustainable opportunity for international NGOs to foster a development methods that help to reduce culture of disaster preparedness in which vulnerability. In the words of UN Secretary- preparedness management is seen to be General Kofi Annan, speaking at the May 1999 accorded the same priority as other needs and donors' meeting in Stockholm: challenges in development, and which thus aims The unfinished political and human rights agendas of to minimise the vulnerability of the millions of the peace process, and the reconstruction agenda people who are marginalised and socially following the loss of life, devastation and ruin brought excluded in Central America and elsewhere. on by Hurricane Mitch ... are compatible, mutually reinforcing agendas. The two agendas — peace and Adolfo Castrillo reconstruction — both address pivotal questions (Former Deputy Regional Representative for Central relating to poverty, social inequity, population America and Mexico, Oxfam GB)

8 Preface

Notes

1 The World Disasters Report 1999 was published by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. It stated that natural disasters tripled in the 1990s compared with the 1960s, with more than 700 'large-loss' catastrophes occurring in 1998 alone. 2 Quoted in Go-Between 76, August-September 1999, p.27. 1 Introduction

Background to the risk-mapping subject, in order to establish an institutional exercise framework and to identify existing processes and initiatives within this field. An overall method- Oxfam GB (hereafter referred to as 'Oxfam') ology was then agreed as a basis for defining the has always been involved in a broad range of nature of the risks, vulnerabilities, and capacities humanitarian aid programmes. It views emer- in the region; for selecting the indicators and gency relief work as a way of addressing the determining the variables and weightings to be needs that arise from poverty and suffering, used in assessing them; and for formulating tools and seeks through its interventions to optimise for gathering, processing, and analysing people's capacity to control the factors that information. Field visits were made to Costa Rica, affect them in their daily lives, as well as to El Salvador, and Honduras, using the original influence humanitarian aid policies and methodology. In the second phase, the practices in a wider context. methodology and criteria used were broader, and visits were made to high-risk areas in Guatemala, Emergencies and natural disasters which Mexico, and Nicaragua. Neither Panama nor interrupt the processes of development, or Belize was included in the main exercise. which exacerbate existing instabilities and/or conflicts, often precipitate a crisis for the poor. In Mexico and Central America, Oxfam has long supported impoverished communities Methodology whose lives have been affected by natural phenomena and conflicts. Its aim in these It is always a challenge to represent in simple circumstances is to strengthen the capacity of terms the complex reality within which the poor and marginalised to bring about emergency situations occur, in a way that also allows one to visualise the key elements in an aid changes which are positive and sustainable, and agency's decision-making process. As a point of to reduce their vulnerability in the event of departure, we assume that emergencies are not emergencies or any other situations in which external to the on-going development processes, their basic rights are denied. but are part of them. They constitute inter- Oxfam's Programme of Preparedness for ruptions or crises which then have major Emergencies in Mexico and Central America is repercussions on the development opportunities an essential step towards providing an effective, of a given community or area. Since disasters efficient, and appropriate humanitarian always have the potential to undermine response to emergencies in this region. The development, measures to prevent, prepare for, mapping exercise that forms the basis of this and mitigate disasters should inform every plan Working Paper represents a starting point in and strategy for sustainable development. developing this programme. The mapping We assumed that this methodology should be a exercise had the following aims. tool for people who are not disaster experts, but whose depth of local knowledge and experience • To predict possible emergencies that might makes them experts in the conditions and arise in the region and to ascertain their potentialities of a given country, region, or potential impact on those most affected. locality. This study thus sought to develop a fuller • To identify the local capacity for emergency analysis than one based on technical expertise response within each country. alone, by combining relevant formal information • To envisage the type of external assistance with the accumulated experience of local actors. needed for an effective and appropriate Although the methodology was devised to assess response to emergencies. risks, vulnerabilities, and local capacities at a The exercise began with a literature review, regional level, it can also be adapted for local-level including Oxfam's own policy documents on the application.

10 Introduction

The threats to be studied were selected on the general, wealth is highly concentrated among • basis of the most frequent events or disasters in the small, prosperous minorities who co-exist with a region, though some were included because of the marginalised and growing majority who live in severity of their impact, rather than because of extreme poverty. A fairly uniform economic their frequency. The scenarios were those most structural adjustment-model has been applied likely to occur in Mexico and Central America, in throughout the region over the last decade. order to provide a comprehensive view of the Although this has led to an apparent improve- region, and the threat or risk of disasters, whether ment in macro-economic performance, there has natural or of human agency. Qualitative and also been rising unemployment, a depression in quantitative indicators were established. The first agricultural production (principally affecting phase of the study sought to validate the method- campesino [peasant] producers and the indigenous ology by testing it against a range of diverse and peoples), and a widening gap between rich and complex realities. Adjustments were subsequently poor. made to take account of the fact that it was not The structural adjustment packages have also possible to consult as many people in the region as resulted in widespread cuts in basic services in the had been hoped, and because not all the areas of health-care services, education, welfare information we had expected to be available was services, and housing. Deepening poverty and accessible; hence we had to make use of some old widespread social exclusion have frequently data and also abandon some of the proposed resulted in the population of whole areas being indicators. Despite these constraints, we none the marginalised. The most deprived areas and social less achieved a fairly accurate level of approx- sectors are also those most at risk from disasters of imation in the first phase of the exercise. all kinds, a fact which in turn makes them more vulnerable still. With the exception of Costa Rica, all of the countries in the region are now at a crucial point Physical characteristics of the in their political history, in that they are all in an region: an overview immediate post-war phase, or are currently experiencing armed conflicts. The processes of Five tectonic plates meet in the area covered by setting up institutions and mechanisms for Mexico and Central America, the movement democratic participation are still in their and interaction of which determine the infancy. There is also great uncertainty, extremely high seismic activity throughout the generated by a high degree of economic and region (principally along the Pacific coastline), social polarisation, and popular distrust of which causes frequent earthquakes and public bodies and political parties which have occasional tsunamis (tidal waves created by proved- unable to rise above sectarianism, quakes on the seabed). There is also an active making it difficult to reach a consensus or to chain of volcanoes right down the Pacific Strip, prioritise national interests. with the Tacana volcano actually linking Mexico with the Central American isthmus. In addition, four cyclogenetic zones are present in the Pacific and the Atlantic ocean masses, in which there is Outline of contents activity throughout the annual hurricane season The analysis of threats establishes the incidence (June-November). and distribution of threats present in the region, The prevailing climate patterns, together and the particularities of each country with with ecological deterioration, are resulting in respect to probability, intensity, and area irregular and changing rainfall patterns, which covered. The sectors and elements exposed to the subject wide areas to a continuous fluctuation threat are then analysed, in particular the between increasingly severe floods and threatened communities, agro-ecological droughts. Other phenomena, such as conditions and the state of the economy, earthquakes or tornadoes, affect only a limited infrastructure, and services (risk analysis). This area, but have a significant impact. is followed by an analysis of vulnerability, The region's economic structure is dependent defined as the relationship between the level of on international markets and powers, with regard risk, local capacities, and the living conditions of both to the sale of products (mainly agricultural) the threatened community. The level of and the acquisition of raw materials and vulnerability can be modified according to technology for the manufacture of basic goods. In certain trace indicators, including the capacity to

11 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities predict occurrences, communication systems, the An in-depth study of the current situation capacity of health-care systems, general levels of formed part of the risk map, but is presented education, and levels of disease. A risk map also only in summary form in this Working Paper considers the wider factors that determine the since, by its very nature, such information is conditions in which such communities live. liable to change in a relatively short time. The The risk map undertakes an analysis of local focus here is on the capacity of institutions to capacities, by considering firstly the tackle emergency situations in their different institutional framework for the management of shapes and forms, identifying the strengths and disasters, regionally, nationally, and locally. weaknesses of the key players in the region in Secondly, it assesses current capacities from the the detection, diagnosis, planning, inter- perspective of civil society. Finally, it considers vention, and evaluation of emergencies. This initiatives for developing existing capacities, paper also considers emergencies in the context and the principal actors who have a role to play of development and establishes immediate and in this. It identifies steps already taken, and future challenges for work in the region. current shortcomings in the fields of pre- The conclusions include an evaluation of vention, preparedness, rehabilitation, and disasters in the region, assessing progress and response; and then assesses these and shortcomings in the fields of prevention, establishes a framework for future priorities. preparedness, mitigation, response, and Factors that indicate specific capacities are, restoration. This final section attempts to among others, those related to the management identify the principal players in the context of of information regarding disasters: analysis and disasters in the region, and makes evaluation of the context and environment, co- recommendations for likely scenarios. ordination, and operational and management plans for working in emergencies.

12 2 Assessment of threats and risks

Identification and analysis of campesinos and small-scale producers on rain-ted threats land in marginal and hillside areas. In Mexico, various bodies are responsible for In Central America, most natural phenomena identifying the threats associated with potential that cause disasters are already well understood, risks, particularly the National Centre for the and great advances have also been made in Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED), the Mexico. However, regarding the phenomena Department of Agriculture and Water associated with seismic activity there remain some Resources (SARH), and the Institutes of unstudied areas (principally in Central America). Geophysics and Geography of the Autonomous The potential for seismic activity along the Pacific University of Mexico (UN AM), all co-ordinated coasts has been comprehensively studied, but through the National System for Civil there is as yet no seismo-tectonic model to explain Protection (SINAPROC). Costa Rica has a events of recent years along the Atlantic coastline, significant network of institutions in the various for example the earthquake in Limon, Costa Rica. fields of earth sciences such as geology, Nor is there a model that could help to establish vulcanology, and geophysics. These include the adequate building regulations, although University of Costa Rica (UCR), the Costa Rican significant efforts are being made in Mexico to Institute of Electricity (ICE), the Seismology identify seismic micro-zones, particularly in the Observatory of Costa Rica (OVSICORI), and metropolitan area around Mexico City. the National Institute of Meteorology (INM), The threats posed by volcanoes are better which works in meteorology and climatology. understood, as more is known about the Guatemala and Nicaragua have reached what dynamics of eruptions of the most dangerous might be called an intermediate level in their active volcanoes. Mexico, for instance, has understanding of threats and risks. Much of the carried out an exhaustive study of possible relevant research takes place in place in scenarios in the event of the eruption of Guatemala's National Institute of Seismology, Popocatepetl (just outside Mexico City), Vulcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology including a rigorous mapping process, warning (INSIVUMEH) and at Nicaragua's Institute systems, and an operational plan in the form of of Earth Studies (INETER). However, their a signalling system. But there have been no such scant financial resources prevent them from detailed studies of other highly dangerous retaining qualified staff and maintaining their volcanoes in Mexico. Throughout Central research work. For instance, it is expected that America, important work has been done with INSIVUMEH may soon be broken up, with the help of CEPREDENAC (the Co-ordinating some areas of study being transferred to the Centre for the Prevention of Natural Disasters universities, and others being privatised. in Central America), and several maps are now The bodies responsible for identifying threats in existence. However, these do not adequately and potential risks in El Salvador were being cover the risks and possible scenarios. reorganised at the time of the study. A new In the field of hydro-meteorology, the Environment Ministry will have responsibility relevant authorities are generally well informed, for the most important vigilance systems, and for but need to become better at predicting the determining regulation and control in the use of progression and the trajectory of cyclones. natural resources. In Honduras and Panama, Better research on floods is also needed, for the responsibility for these services lies with a instance in connection with the droughts range of different bodies. In both countries, the associated with the El Nino phenomenon. We relevant institutions are experiencing serious need a clearer understanding of this type of financial difficulties, particularly the threat and the potential risks for agricultural meteorological service in Honduras, where production, which are particularly relevant to inadequate funds are undermining the stability

13 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

of the workforce and jeopardising the very The frequency of these threats varies greatly. existence of this body. Cyclones and storms, floods, landslides and The activities of these institutions vary greatly drought occur every two to seven years. in quality and quantity. They consist in the Tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions production of basic and thematic maps, which occur every 15 to GO years, with some show various phenomena and their respective exceptions, such as the volcano in risk zones. Projects range from those of Mexico Nicaragua and the Santa Maria (Santiaguito) and Costa Rica, where an Atlas of Threats is volcano in Guatemala. Though the risk of available (which in Costa Rica is integrated in a volcanic eruptions and earthquakes is often modern geographic information system), to deemed secondary, in that the probability of countries like Panama, where more specific their occurrence is small, the consequences of initiatives are taking place in mapping the risks any such catastrophe are extremely serious: the of volcanoes, earthquakes, and floods. One 1972 earthquake in Managua left 20,000 people common problem is the scale of these risk- dead; the 1976 Guatemala earthquake claimed mapping exercises. In Mexico, the 'risk atlas' is 26,000 lives; the 1985 earthquake in Mexico on a scale that allows for an analysis of risks but killed between 10,000 and 20,000 people; and not for possible emergency scenarios to be that in El Salvador in 1986 left 1,500 dead. visualised. Equally, the content of the Central American maps is general and on a very small scale, which means that they cannot be used for sensitive emergency operations. A typology of natural threats A significant gap across the region is the lack of multi-phenomena analyses and maps. Hurricanes Generally, phenomena are considered The hurricanes that affect the region originate independently of each other (according to the in four principal zones: the Gulf of specialism of the institutions carrying out the Tehuantepec, the Bay of Campeche, the study). This does not allow for integrated Caribbean, and the Atlantic Region. They tend analyses of risks and the relationships between to follow trajectories which are more or less well them, though this would improve the work in defined, though sometimes erratic, and may or the field of emergency prevention in a region may not hit dry land (see Map 1). In Mexico, the where all types of threat are potentially present. areas most frequently affected by hurricanes are For the purpose of the Oxfam risk-mapping, the on the Pacific Coast. Hurricanes originating threats considered are those which cause the from near the Intertropical Convergence Zone most significant damage in human, material, (which is close to Central America) will progress and economic terms: hurricanes, floods, northwards and affect the Mexican coastal drought, landslides, tsunamis, tidal waves, areas. The hurricane season runs from June to volcanic eruptions, and, particularly in Mexico November, with most storms occurring in and Guatemala, frosts and hailstorms. September and October. In the case of tropical cyclones (storms and In Mexico, the probability of being directly hurricanes), it is possible to identify the areas that affected by hurricanes is high, while in Central are statistically most frequently affected. How- America it is relatively low, though the indirect ever, cyclones may also affect areas not featuring effects are frequently experienced. The most in the statistics, for example, Hurricanes Joan in exposed areas of Mexico experience more than 1988, Gilbert in 1993, and Cesar in 1996. It is five hurricanes per decade. In the worst- difficult to show the precise areas at risk of affected areas of Central America — the Atlantic flooding and landslides in a study at this level, coastline of Honduras and Nicaragua — the though significant steps have been taken (see corresponding figure is between three and four, Maps 2 and 3). Depending on the topography, while the values for Panama, Costa Rica, and El coastline, and vegetation, floods and landslides Salvador are less than one. are most likely to occur in the areas statistically Rapid urbanisation increases the potential for most affected by cyclones and seismic phenom- damage caused by tropical cyclones. Four of the ena. In general, the Adantic Coast is more northern states of Mexico are likely to be struck susceptible to tropical storms and floods, while the by hurricanes every two to four years, Pacific Coast is more susceptible to earthquakes, threatening some four million people in 31 volcanic eruptions, and droughts. However, coastal towns. A further two million people in cyclones affect both of Mexico's coastlines. another five states are exposed to the effects of

14 Assessment of threats and risks cyclones striking every five to seven years in Central America has experienced several another five states, and another four million large-scale earthquakes, some of which have people in 176 towns are vulnerable across states occurred in the last 20 years, because the region where hurricanes occur every eight to 26 years. forms a geological bridge between the Americas In Central America, Nicaragua and Honduras and is rising as a consequence of the subduction can expect 36 hurricanes or storms per century. of the Cocos plate under the . It In Nicaragua's Atlantic Coast, the corresponding is this interaction of plates which is responsible number ranges from 6 in Bluefields to 36 in Cabo for the complexity of the geographical Gracias a Dios, with approximately half a million phenomena causing such intense seismic people at direct risk and a further 1.3 million activity, especially on the Pacific coast (though, as people exposed to indirect risk. The situation is noted earlier, the Atlantic coast has not been similar in Honduras, where three-quarters of the properly studied). Major seismic activity in the country is affected by hurricanes, with the region occurs every 6-40 years, and secondary northern coastline most directly exposed, placing activity occurs more frequently. In Guatemala some 2.9 million people at risk. Guatemala also the four significant seismic zones cross a experiences the indirect effects of tropical significant part of the surface area of the country cyclones, especially those originating in the and are associated with the interaction of plates western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche, to and internal geological faults. There is a which some two million people are exposed. In probability of earthquakes with a magnitude of densely populated El Salvador, and also in Costa 8.0 on the Richter scale occurring every 30 years, Rica and Panama, the cyclones have other and a probability of earthquakes of 5.5-7.5 characteristics and are associated with high occurring every 1-15 years. Almost all of the departments of Guatemala are thus exposed to rainfall and flooding. the threat of earthquakes, although they face varying levels of risk. The areas most likely to be Seismic activity affected are the Central Highlands (including The region is in one of the zones of greatest the capital city) and the south coast, exposing seismic activity in the world, as five tectonic approximately 6.5 million people to risk. The plates interact within it: the Cocos, Pacific, area of second greatest risk is in the north- North American, Caribbean, and Nazca. eastern region and part of the north-west. Between the Pacific and North American plates Although the pattern of seismic activity is a lateral slippage is occurring; between North fairly similar across the region, Honduras has America and Cocos, one plate is being forced reported no related disasters, despite being under the other (a phenomenon known as affected by the volcanically active areas of its 'subduction'). In both cases, significant tremors neighbours and despite the influence of major are caused which affect the region's Pacific coast. fault lines in the country. This is doubtless why Inland, the region is affected by continental, the subject has been studied so little in this regional, and local fault lines. Among the most country. However, Honduras is not out of important are the San Andreas Fault in Mexico, danger: at least 80 tremors have been recorded which marks the border between the Pacific and in different parts of the country. Obviously, North American plates; the Mesoamerican seismic activity in Honduras does not have the Trench, which divides the North American and same implications as it does elsewhere, since the Cocos plates (Mexico), and the Motagua-Polochic threats do not translate into significant risks. Fault (Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras), The opposite is the case in El Salvador, where which marks the movement of the Caribbean and strong seismic activity is caused by three North American plates (see Map 1). significant seismogenetic sources: the Motagua Mexico experiences major earthquakes every system of faults, the subduction of the Cocos 32 to 56 years, affecting 11 states and part of 14 plate, and the local system of faults. The last of more. The central and southern areas are most these is highly dangerous, since it affects areas likely to experience earthquakes of a magnitude where there are many weaknesses (non- above 7.0 on the Richter scale, exposing some 60 compacted soil), occasioning frequent cracks in million people to the phenomenon nationwide. rock faults that cause continuous seismic activity In addition, the characteristics of the subsoil of right across the middle of the country. A chain of Mexico City (where some 22 million people live) young and active volcanoes is connected by a cause an approximately 400-fold amplification system of faults, making it even more dangerous, in seismic waves, vastly increasing the risk there. and affecting large areas of the country,

15 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities including the metropolitan area around San In Mexico, the volcanic strip extends from Salvador. Seismic activity affects practically the coast to coast around the 19°N parallel, with a whole of El Salvador, with some four million population estimated by the Secretaria de people exposed, and occurs relatively frequently, Gobernacion at about 36 million inhabitants with major earthquakes taking place at intervals living in the zone of influence, in 610 towns. of between six and 20 years. Less significant The volcanic chain extends from the south of tremors (<5 on the Richter scale) occur Mexico to the volcano in Costa Rica, practically every year, as they do in Guatemala. and then towards the west of Panama. Significant seismic activity also occurs in CEPREDENAC has identified 582 volcanoes in Nicaragua. The frequency and magnitude of the Central American region, with a total of 80 earthquakes here is similar to those of active ones, of which 25 are in Guatemala, 20 Guatemala and El Salvador, with seismic activity in El Salvador, 22 in Nicaragua, 11 in Costa principally affecting the Pacific region, where Rica, and the rest in Panama and Honduras. almost one-third of the population (1.4 million (While Honduras is not thought to be at risk, people) is concentrated. The country is divided CEPREDENAC registers deep cores of potential into four seismic zones, of which the most volcanoes ['focuses'] there.) important runs from the Pacific Coast to the In Guatemala, the volcanoes are located on a central volcanic chain, where there is a high risk high plateau rising to more than 4,000 metres, of quakes measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale. while in Nicaragua and El Salvador they jut out This area includes important cities such as Leon, from a plain which slopes gently from the Pacific Chinandega, Managua, Masaya, and Rivas. Coast. Of Guatemala's 37 volcanoes, seven are Since Costa Rica shares the same sources of more than 3,500 metres high. The Volcan de earthquakes as the rest of Central America, the Fuego, 45km from the capital, has been the most frequency and magnitude of eardiquakes are active and dangerous volcano since the time of similar. A complex mapping of seismic activity the Spanish Conquest. The other active and exists, showing three major seismic zones with dangerous Guatemalan volcanoes of Santa approximately 1.9 million people exposed. The Maria, Santiaguito, and threaten some zone bordering the Pacific coast feels the direct 1.5 million people. impact of the Cocos and Caribbean plates. In El Salvador, volcanic and seismic activity Seismic activity can reach up to 7.0 on the Richter are closely related. The volcanoes presenting scale, but occurs relatively deeply (deeper than the greatest threat are located in the west 20km) and with epicentres at a short distance (, , San Marcelino), the central from major centres of population. It is worth region (, Ilopango, and noting that there is a 'zone of silence' in the San Vincente), and the east (, Peninsula de Nicaya, where scientists are Alegria or Tecapa, and ). An expecting a significant earthquake with estimated population of about 3.9 million catastrophic effects. The second zone, which inhabitants is exposed, with one-third of these includes the Central Region (interior of the directly threatened by the San Salvador country, valleys and highlands), has a moderate volcano, the most dangerous in the country. to low level of activity (<7) with near-surface In Nicaragua, the picture is very similar. earthquake centres (less than 20km deep). Volcanic activity threatens 60 per cent of the However, the potential effects are serious, since population along the Pacific (where most the area has the greatest concentration of the Nicaraguans live), an estimated 1.4 million population. The third seismic zone, in the north, people. Important volcanoes include Cosigiiina experiences weaker and less frequent seismic (near the Gulf of Fonseca), San Cristobal activity than the rest of the country. (Chinandega), Cerro Negro, which is currently in a particularly active phase, and (both in Leon), (Granada), and Volcanic activity Concepcion (Ometepe). However, 16 more Volcanic activity is highly significant, since the volcanoes in the same chain may begin great volcanoes and their monogenetic fields significant activity at any moment. are near to large population centres or areas of Costa Rica has more than 200 volcanic focuses, major economic activity. Though volcanic of which six have shown some activity, exposing eruptions do not usually cause large-scale loss of an estimated population of 690,000 inhabitants. life, and in this region are infrequent (every six Irazu volcano has erupted several times recently, to 60 years), they can cause extensive damage. and is very near to the city of Cartago.

16 Assessment of threats and risks

Floods 1.4 million, mainly along the northern coastline Floods are frequent and occur almost every year and in the south. Floods also occur in micro- to varying degrees, depending on their cause zones in marginalised areas around the cities, and the characteristics of each country. While practically every year. This happens in the floods occur inland and on both coasts, they are capital and in the northern industrial centres generally more frequent and more severe on the (San Pedro Sula, El Progreso, Choloma). Atlantic Coast (though in Mexico, both coasts In El Salvador, most floods occur when the are hugely affected). Flooding generally occurs River Lempa and its tributaries in the interior of during the hurricane season. However, in the country burst their banks. This occurs every year, especially in the lower part of the river Central America flooding occurs every couple of 2 years, in association with the Intertropical basin, affecting an area of some 6,000 km , with Convergence Zone (ITCZ), especially when its a population in the order of 1.2 million. effects are combined with the Odes of the East Flooding occurs as much in the urban areas, (Las Odas del Esle). Problems associated with particularly in the periphery of San Salvador, as flooding are becoming more frequent, as more in the countryside. and more settlements are precariously estab- Flooding occurs along both of Nicaragua's lished in high-risk zones: flood prevention coastlines. On the Atlantic virtually all of the through better land-use has not taken place. Soil country's most important rivers (the Coco, the erosion caused by deforestation and bad Prinzapolka, the Wawa, and the Rio Grande) management of river basins has also contributed flow into the sea and are easily swollen by heavy to flooding. and prolonged rains. On the Pacific, the rivers The many dams in the region also pose the are shorter and shallower and are less exposed threat of flooding, with the greatest problems to rain-generating phenomena, with the occurring in Mexico and in El Salvador. Mexico exception of the south-westerly winds, which has 3,211 dams in total, with 800 identified as bring rain because of the ITCZ. Thus floods risks (Secretaria de Gobernacion 1994). In El occur every one to three years on the Atlantic Salvador, three important dams affect the Coast, and every ten years on the Pacific Coast flooding of the middle and lower parts of the (though the capital, Managua, floods more River Lempa basin (Romano 1996) and have frequently), with some half a million people resulted in the displacement of many people exposed. The whole length of the Atlantic Coast and the deterioration of natural resources and is affected by flooding, with important towns the local environment. and many communities spread over a wide area severely affected. Since there are only about 7.5 Mexico has 47 important rivers, and SARH inhabitants/km2, the population at risk is in the calculates that 70 incidences of flooding occur region of about 300,000. annually, with a potential risk to 18 million Flooding in Costa Rica occurs at intervals of inhabitants. In three states alone (Veracruz, between one and five years on both sides of the Sonora, and Jalisco) between 200 and 400 floods country and in the interior, with some 500,000 have been recorded in a 39-year period (see inhabitants threatened, in an area estimated at Map 2). 5000 km2, including the capital city. In Central America, flooding occurs in the context of complex systems of river basins which are in a state of extreme deterioration. The Landslides effects of floods are therefore devastating. In Landslides occur on slopes that have Guatemala, for example, there have been characteristics such as strong reliefs, low- serious floods, affecting an estimated area of resistance rocks and/or soil, and unstable 23,000 km2 and exposing a population of structures. External factors such as seismic and approximately 1.6 million inhabitants. The volcanic activity and rainfall play a part, as do worst-affected areas are on the south coast and deforestation and the level of ground-water. in the northern and north-east regions. Other Often landslides pass unnoticed, because they areas are threatened to a lesser degree. are generally associated with other larger-scale Honduras is particularly susceptible, because events like hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes. floods are associated not only with cyclones that However, they cause great damage and many affect large areas, but also with intense rainfall deaths in the region. over relatively short periods. COPECO Certain zones are particularly threatened, estimates that the population affected exceeds though the records are not detailed enough to

17 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities show all of these throughout the rural areas. Few tsunamis have been recorded in Central However, in urban areas the phenomenon America. One occurred in El Salvador in 1902, attracts the attention of the authorities and the and in September 1992 one hit the Pacific coast local population, and records are kept. The of Nicaragua, affecting 250km of the coastline frequency with which landslides occur with waves measuring 5.0m, entering inland up corresponds exactly to that of seismic and to 350 metres. This was caused by an earthquake volcanic activity, floods, and strong rains. measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, with an All of the most important population centres epicentre 75km to the south-east of the coast. in the region are threatened by landslides, since they are all surrounded by marginalised Drought settlements in precarious conditions. Three critical places are Guatemala City, San Drought can affect an entire population, Salvador, and Tegucigalpa; and, to a lesser although its effects may be felt most directly in extent, Managua and San Jose. Landslides certain areas. While the most severe natural associated with volcanic activity also occur in dangers facing the region are earthquakes, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, and volcanoes, and hurricanes, droughts and wind are accompanied by flows, pyroclastic erosion cause greater damage and economic flows, and lahars (flowing masses of mingled losses. volcanic debris and water). Droughts now occur almost as often as floods, and it seems that in the next few years the region will go from floods to drought, or will Tsunamis experience both phenomena in due course. Tsunamis are single, giant waves caused by However, the data used in the mapping exercise underwater volcanic activity or large land- suggest that drought occurs every two to seven slides on the seabed, although most are the years, and in some cases annually. Drought has result of large-scale seismic activity with also been associated with El Nino, a complex epicentres on the seabed. The tidal wave that phenomenon now occurring on a global scale. results can cause disasters many kilometres This is currently being studied, in order that the from the coast, especially when the affected mechanisms that activate it, as well as its regions are flat. Tsunamis have been reported evolution, can be better understood and in Mexico, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, forecast, and precautionary measures can be although the whole of the Pacific coast is taken. Meanwhile, large areas of the region are exposed to the threat. suffering ever more frequently from its There have been reports of this phe- unpredictable impact. nomenon on the Pacific coast of Mexico since In Mexico, some of the northern states are 1732. Over this period, of 39 recorded affected annually by droughts, and others every tsunamis, 27 originated locally. Of the two to three years (see Map 2). It is estimated remaining 12, three came from the Aleutians, that about 27 million people may be affected, three from Japan, two from Chile, one from although in a study of this scale it is very difficult Alaska, one from New Zealand, one from Peru, to determine the real impact on crops and and one from Hawaii. The 27 tsunamis that communities. originated locally were caused by tectonic In Central America, critical zones exist in the tremors, of which 94 per cent occurred on the west of Honduras and in the north Pacific Pacific coast and the rest hit the Gulf of Mexico. region of Nicaragua. Although other areas of The area most affected has been Acapulco in Nicaragua are also affected by droughts, the Guerrero, where there have been 16 tsunamis, incidence is less severe. A third zone is eastern El with waves measuring up to 9.5 metres. There Salvador, and to a lesser degree the west of the are currently two highly threatened zones: the country. Guatemala suffers drought in the first extends from Baja California in the far northern regions and in north-east, south-east, north to Michoacan (very high risk, with 3.5 south-west, and central areas. Lastly, Costa million people exposed), and the second from Rica's Chorotega and Central Pacific regions are Guerrero to the south of the country affected. Overall in Central America, it is (secondary risk, with 1.3 million people estimated that a total of 8.4 million people live in exposed). zones affected by drought.

18 Assessment of threats and risks

Risk of threats caused by human times a year. The land crisis of El Salvador, and the unfinished Programme of Land Reform agency (Programa de Transferencia de Tierra — PIT) Although there is no real dividing line between is of great importance because it concerns the risks and disasters of natural origin and those agenda left pending after the peace accords. Its caused by human activity, these were non-resolution compromises any National differentiated for mapping purposes. Here, we Development Strategy (Alberto Enriquez concentrate on armed conflicts and technological 1997). The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), which is monitoring the emergencies, especially pollution (chemical and agrarian policies of the World Bank in El biological) and explosions. However, we also Salvador, argues that land policies are critical considered other man-made threats to the to peace. However, the strategy proposed by environment. the World Bank (liberalisation of the land market) and adopted by the government has Conflicts left farmers and campesinos with many doubts. Central America is in transition from conflict These previously conflicting groups now agree to democracy as it undergoes a process of on the need for an agrarian policy and relief for change after more than a decade of war and both agrarian and bank debts. armed conflict. However, new types of conflict Agrarian conflict and the struggle for access are now emerging, due to the social and to and the defence of natural resources in economic injustices affecting the most Honduras are also dangerous factors. impoverished and vulnerable social sectors. Conflicting interpretations of the Agricultural Guatemala and Mexico (Chiapas) merit special Modernisation Law (Ley de Modernization attention: Guatemala, because it is heading Agrlcola) and the lack of a clear government towards building a strong and lasting peace, policy on the administration and management and Mexico, because a political and military of natural resources are combining to create conflict is taking place against a very complex problems. Trouble-spots are in Sico-Paulaya, background and is having a serious impact on which borders farmland declared an area of people's lives. Trouble-spots in the other agrarian reform by the government, where countries could also result or already have various groups are in conflict, and Ojo de resulted in conflicts. These conflicts may not Agua, on the northern coast (lands belonging yet be serious enough to merit emergency to the Garifuna people), and areas throughout intervention but are worth registering, given the west and east of the country, and on the that the development of a conflict is a process, island of Roatan. In some of the western and they could become more acute in the departments, the conflict centres on the future. The conflicts considered here also defence of woodland, where communities are correspond with concerns expressed by local fighting influential groups who are violating people. the 30-year moratorium on tree-felling, agreed with the government. The situation of the Certain aspects of these conflicts are chortis indians, who are fighting fiercely for common to the region, and are the cause of their land to be restored, led to a violent great concern: in particular, the problems protest in August 1997. This demonstration associated with 'overall insecurity' because of was suppressed, indicating that the crisis is now the level of violence (among the highest in the becoming significant and could spread across world) and human-rights violations; economic the country. and job insecurity against a background of Forced economic migration has long affected inequalities; insecurity in public life Mexico, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. It is (corruption, ineffective institutions); political particularly relevant to El Salvador, because one- insecurity (distrust of traditional political fifth (1.5 million) of Salvadorans living abroad are parties); and environmental insecurity in all its in die USA, many of them at serious risk of expressions. For example, in Honduras there deportation. Through monthly remittances, have been serious tensions in the judicial these people make a significant contribution to system. More than 60 per cent of those the country's economy: some US$1,086 million, detained in custody have not been sentenced which represents nearly 10 per cent of the Gross and remain for long periods in over-crowded National Product, far more than that received in prisons in which riots break out at least six aid from the USA (see Table 1).

19 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

Table 1: Remittances from Salvadorans estimated that 80,000 people are carriers of the in USA and aid from USA (in millions of virus, two-thirds of whom are male. Most are in US dollars) the 15-34 year-old age group (72 per cent), of whom 65 per cent live in San Pedro Sula or Year Monthly payments around the capital city. to families US aid Technology-related emergencies 1991 518.0 219.6 A technology-related emergency involves 1992 686.0 294.6 spillages, leaks, fire,o r the explosion of any toxic or dangerous substance, object, or product. The 1993 884.0 220.3 threat is present in all the countries, particularly in Mexico, where on average 775 fires and 1994 958.0 76.4 explosions are recorded annually, mainly in and around Mexico City, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, Baja 1995 1,000.0 38.9 California, Chihuahua, and Guanajuato 1996 1,086.0 41.8 (Secretaria de Gobernacion 1994). In Central America, the greatest threats are Total 5,132.0 936.2 from the operations of oil companies and the transportation of toxic substances. For example, 80 per cent of the oil pipeline crossing Costa Rica Until 1995 deportations averaged 1,800 a year, from the north-east to the south-west is above but the trend is ever increasing. Salvadoran ground, and at Cartago there is a battery of nationals represented about 3.5 per cent of those storage tanks above ground level without any deported from the USA before a new immi- system of safety control. In Managua, the gration law came into force on 1 April 1997. refinery has leaked phenol into the ground- The maquilas (assembly plants) and pressure water that is the source of 30 per cent of the on local resources are important issues in capital's water supply. The same is happening in Honduras and El Salvador. For instance, in Honduras, where a pipeline is threatening the Choloma (Honduras), the total number of city of Tela. Meanwhile, according to the industries (around 50) is expanding, but this Honduran Red Cross, combustible material is growth does not feature in any municipal transported without safety regulations by road development plan to cater for the demand for (there is no national railway network in services from the large number of people Honduras) from the principal ports to various seeking work there. An estimated 70,000 destinations inland. workers are currently living in very difficult With the closure of Penwalt in Nicaragua, conditions in which very few of their basic Central America is supplied with liquid chlorine needs are being met. Choloma and the from Mexico, which is transported through surrounding areas do not have the necessary Guatemala along the Panamerican Highway, absorption capacity, and the present situation without any safety controls. None of the Central is likely to create a trouble-spot: in addition to American countries has any expertise in dealing being a significant site of industrial conflict, the with this substance in the event of an area is rife with violence and delinquency, and emergency. there is a proliferation of sexually transmitted Another risk worthy of mention is the high diseases. probability of fires in three of the hospitals in In the industrial belt in the north of Honduras, where the electricity systems are Honduras, San Pedro Sula shows an especially very old and overloaded: it would be impossible high incidence of HIV/AIDS for Central to evacuate patients in the event of a fire, as the America; 57 per cent of the recorded cases in the emergency exits were sealed in the 1980s, so region are in Honduras, and are concentrated that political prisoners undergoing treatment in San Pedro Sula. Given the behaviour of the could not escape. syndrome and the speed with which it advances, it could soon have a significant impact on the nation's health. It has been predicted that life Abuses of natural resources expectancy at birth could be reduced by up to 30 The entire region is in the midst of a major per cent by the year 2000. It is currently environmental crisis, which has contributed

20 Assessment of threats and risks

substantially to the increase in dangerous also indications that salinisation is occurring in situations, some of which would, in combination southern Honduras, where salt has been with natural occurrences, result in disasters. detected in ground-waters. The threats vary in magnitude, although several Forest fires are on the increase, because of the of them are serious in all the countries. The frequent droughts occurring in the region. The mapping exercise picked out those that could problem is serious in Mexico and Honduras. In trigger irreversible processes with serious Mexico, fires occur in large areas of the country, consequences for the future of the region. while in Honduras most of the country is The most sensitive of these threats is affected, with an annual loss of more than deforestation. In Mexico the destruction of 30,000 hectares a year. forests is most advanced in the south, especially The loss of forest cover is contributing to in Chiapas, where the situation has been diminishing water resources. Most of the aggravated by armed conflict. It is still not drainage basins have changed their hydro- possible to quantify the impact of the militari- logical characteristics, causing great flooding in sation of the area (for example the increased the rainy season and reduced flow in the dry consumption of firewood to meet the needs of season. Throughout the region, there is concern military personnel, and deforestation for the at the increasingly frequent 'deaths' of many establishment of mobile bases and for land/air small rivers which previously irrigated the land operations). In reality, the process of defor- and were fundamental in meeting basic needs, estation in Mexico has accelerated throughout while large rivers have seen a huge reduction in the whole country. It is calculated that the water supply. A clear example is that of the 260,000km2 of land are now in a state of River Lempa in El Salvador: from 1985 to 1993, advanced desertification, principally in the its capacity for collecting water diminished from central areas. This is resulting in the loss of 11,260m3 to 4,482 m3. fertile soil, which is calculated at 2.8 tonnes per Air, soil, and water pollution is another hectare per year, affecting agricultural common and serious threat. The SARH production and, because of widespread calculates that 50 per cent of Mexico's drainage sedimentation, the efficiency of dams for the basins are contaminated with organic industrial generation of energy. waste (61 per cent) and urban waste (30 per In Central America, El Salvador and Costa cent), resulting in serious pollution of supplies Rica are the most seriously affected countries, of water for various uses, including human followed by Guatemala, Nicaragua, and consumption. Mexico City alone produces 24 Honduras. In El Salvador, only 12 per cent of per cent of the country's air pollution, with two the land area is under forest cover, including other major towns responsible for seven per just 2 per cent covered by primary woodland. It cent between them. was estimated by the Ministry of Planning in Soil and water pollution is also significant 1993 that the annual loss of fertile soil in El in Central America. For instance, in addition to Salvador was 500 tonnes per hectare per year, the serious pollution of water resources by with the former conflict areas of Chalatenango, pesticides, organic waste, and industrial waste Cabanas, Cuscatlan, and Morazan the most which affects the whole of El Salvador, the entire badly affected (UNDP 1997). Costa Rica has a eastern region will soon face a crisis because of deforestation rate of 50,000 hectares a year, and water shortages: after 2000, demand will only 25 per cent of its forest cover now remains. outstrip the available resources by 24 per cent, a Its government announced in 1990 that situation which translates into an imminent risk. agricultural land has now been exhausted, as The country's Pacific coast is in a critical the land left is not suitable for production. situation, as it is the only area where liquid waste In Guatemala, the problem is equally bad. and river water (both polluted) are discharged, The deforestation rate is estimated at 90,000 and is suffering serious deterioration of its hectares a year, with a loss of 51 per cent of coastal and marine resources. The River forest land overall, and 65 millions of tons of Acelhuate, where the waste from San Salvador is fertile soil nationally (CONAMA 1995), deposited, becomes a tributary of the River principally in the north and the Peten (a rain- Lempa (upstream), which therefore ends up forest area). In Nicaragua, it is estimated that being an agent of pollution along the whole of its 100,000 hectares a year are affected, and in course. Honduras the rate is 80,000 hectares a year, Agrochemicals are a significant source of soil particularly in the south and west. There are and water pollution in the region, and have a

21 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities noticeable impact on human health. In • They face various physical risks (earthquakes, Guatemala, the areas affected are in the centre volcanic activity, floods, landslides and and south of the country, resulting in up to avalanches, drought, tidal waves, hurricanes, 30,000 incidences of pesticide poisoning, and pollution, fires, and explosions). serious water and soil pollution. In Nicaragua, the Ministry of Health estimates that more than • They are exposed to combinations of threats, 1,200 people per 100,000 inhabitants in two which generally result in a chain-reaction of departments on the Pacific coast are poisoned, risks. and there is considerable pollution of water • They tend to be areas with a high level of sources (both at surface level and underground) economic production, with infrastructure and soil. In Costa Rica, the use of pesticides has and basic services, making them zones of doubled to the current figure of 12,000 strategic economic importance for the region tons/year, resulting in drastic pollution of rivers and for the countries in question. and coasts, especially the basins of the River • The communication systems and the road Tarcoles and the River Bermudez . network are generally good. • There is a high population density (almost 60 Mining operations also cause pollution, as in per cent of the regional population is the case of the open-mining operations in the concentrated there). north of Costa Rica and in the Tilaran mountains. (These operations are causing A country-by-country summary (Table 2) serious conflicts with local people.) In describes the most important risks faced, Honduras, the mining operations around Lake according to the criteria indicated above. Yojoa have caused extreme pollution of water and soil. In Nicaragua, there is pollution in the Table 2: Areas of priority for emergency mining areas of the Atlantic Coast. work Pollution from rubbish merits special attention. The case of Guatemala illustrates the magnitude of the problems. The city has only Country Regions Level of risk one waste disposal site, 'El Trebol', which Mexico Central and South Very high receives approximately 1,200 tons of waste a (15-32 states) day. The rest is burnt in the open air or North and border High to moderate disposed of in 50 underground rubbish dumps around the city. Industrial waste and waste Guatemala Metropolitan Very high from hospitals in Guatemala City is collected Central Very high along with household waste and taken to South-west Very high rubbish tips, without any safety controls. A North High similar situation occurs in Costa Rica, where North-west High to moderate 1,400 tons of waste are produced each day, and North-east, Peten only 40 per cent is disposed of adequately. The problem is also very acute in El Salvador, Honduras North-west Very high especially given the high concentration of the West Very high population in urban areas. South Very high Central High to moderate North-east Moderate Evaluation and levels of risks El Salvador Central-south Very high Once threats have materialised, they become Eastern-south Very high risks, the magnitude of which varies according East-south High to moderate to various factors. Our assessment of exposure Rest of the country High to moderate to threats therefore focused on demographic distribution, economic infrastructure and Nicaragua Pacific Very high activity, general infrastructure and services, and Central and Atlantic High to moderate whether safety regulations exist and are Costa Rica Central Very high observed. Chorotega High The general characteristics of the areas Huetar Atlantico High to moderate classified as high-risk zones are as follows.

22 Assessment of threats and risks

Mexico Some of the communities threatened by this Mexico is a country with an area of about phenomenon are , , 2 million km- and and a population of Tochimilco, and Atlixco. 82 million inhabitants. The key factors in the • Lahars (mudslides and related phenomena): many disasters it has suffered may be political, a mixture of water and fragments of rock, economic, or social. All too often, the people capable of dragging large objects across great most exposed to danger are ignorant of the distances, lahars tend to flow through gullies, potential risk in which they live. Despite the as the affected areas are found in zones of low great diversity of factors that come into play, relief, but they travel farther than any other two variables are constant: poverty and volcanic flow. The most exposed places are unplanned human settlements. Cuautla, Yecapixtla, Iziicar de Matamoros, The mapping exercise focused particularly and many others around the volcano. on the Popocatepetl volcano ('Popo'), in the centre of the country, and the conflicts in the • Huge rockfalls (avalanches of debris): the south (Chiapas). The former will be covered collapse of part of the volcano, due to the here, while the latter will be covered later in the magma being forced up from below, or to study. The case of Popocatepetl illustrates just intense seismic activity, can cause flows of one of many possible scenarios faced by Mexico. materials which travel at great speed (1 OOm/second) and are capable of carrying Popocatepetl is Mexico's second-highest peak entire parts of the volcano across hundreds of (5,452m), lying 55km south-east of Mexico City metres. There is now a possibility that part of and 45km from the city of Puebla. In spite of the Popo's actual cone will collapse, particularly potential danger facing these important towards the southern side, which could population centres, including one of the biggest provoke a vast avalanche of debris. cities in the world, Popo has hardly been studied from a geological point of view. Recently, there • Various materials in free fall (ashes, have been significant studies of the history of its pyroclastic material, ballistic projectiles): eruptions and the way it functions, to determine these materials are emitted during explosive possible scenarios that might occur in the event eruptions, either ballistically or vertically into of a huge eruption. Popo has a very complex the atmosphere to form a column of volcanic eruptive history, but only the most recent material which can reach several kilometres 23,000-year period is known about in great in height. In this case, the wind determines detail. The principal dangers associated with where particles are deposited. When this Popo are the following. material accumulates, it can cause roofs to collapse and it contaminates vegetation and • Lava flowan d domes of lava: a flow of molten springs. Popo has registered several and white-hot material that follows the eruptions of this kind. Ash can reach the size morphology of the land. The flow advances of gravel in the immediate environs, while slowly and rarely presents a danger to human farther away the fall of ash causes health life, but buries and burns everything that problems, as well as damaging crops and comes into its path. The volcano has a blocking drainage systems. Tholoid dome, which was formed in March 1996 inside the crater. This has not grown • Volcanic gases: during fumarolic activity much (only 20 per cent of the volume of the (when hot gases and vapours issue from holes crater), and so has not reached the rim of the in the volcano) and actual eruptions, the gassy crater and does not represent a danger, component of the magma is made up of water according to a UNAM study. The outer limits vapour and, in smaller proportions, a wide of the danger area are Amecameca, San variety of gases with very toxic components. Andres, Atlixco, and Tetela del Volcan. Breathing in these gases causes vomiting, asphyxia, and cardiovascular stress. They • Viscous pyroclastic flows: explosive cause harm to crops, contaminate water, and eruptions which produce materials composed corrode metal structures. of toxic gases and fragments of rock, pumice, and debris. These flows travel at great speed The volcano and its areas of influence have down the sides of the volcano, destroying and been divided into three wide rings (with the burning everything in their path. In the past, crater at the centre); within each of them, the the volcano has registered this type of activity. levels of risks are estimated as follows: 100,000

23 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities people at very high risk, 300,000 people at high (see Table 2), recent major events have included risk, and one million people at moderate risk the earthquakes in Managua (1972), Guatemala (Direction General de Protection Civil, (1976), San Salvador (1986), and Costa Rica Secretaria de Gobernacion 1997). However, (1991), and Hurricanes Fifi in Honduras (1974) civil-society organisations (CSOs) estimate that and Joan in Nicaragua (1988) [and Mitch in the numbers threatened are more like two 1998 - Ed.]. These are extreme events in a million. geographic region where many communities There is little information about the are annually subjected to physical and social economic activities of the communities and displacement as a result of smaller-scale states concerned, though CENAPRED is disasters. estimating the damage that an eruption would cause in the event of various probable scenarios. Guatemala Access roads to the volcano are relatively good in The capital city of Guatemala has been moved the . However, many stretches twice after being destroyed by disasters. The are at high risk of being buried by volcanic settlement in the valley of (now materials, as they are intersected by great Ciudad Vieja) was razed in September 1541 by gullies, through which volcanic material would an avalanche from the Agua volcano. The city of run. Housing infrastructure and public services Santiago founded afterwards in the valley of are also exposed, as is the economy, given that Pancoy (now Antigua Guatemala) was finally 70 per cent of production is agricultural. In abandoned in 1775, after suffering constant reality, it would be difficult for the communities calamities as a result of volcanic eruptions and at risk to withstand the magnitude of the threat. strong earthquakes, culminating in the In fact, the town of Amecameca is built on the earthquake of Santa Marta in 1773. Today's earlier settlement of Ameca, which was buried in Guatemala City lies about 45km away from the a previous eruption. Antigua, in a location even more exposed to seismic threats. Catastrophic earthquakes The situation of Popo is not an isolated case in occurred there in 1917, 1918, and 1976. Mexico, but is part of a complex system of threats facing the country, especially in the Other important population centres in the high-risk zones. For instance, a similar situation priority zones have also been affected by can be seen in the case of the Chichonal volcano disastrous events. For example, the 'great in Chiapas and the disaster that befell the Zoque earthquake of the West' in 1902 measured 8.2 indians, who now face the greatest challenge in on the Richter scale and caused serious damage their history: the survival of their ethnic group in all the towns in the highlands, leaving at least following the eruption of this volcano in April 2,000 people dead. Months later, the Santa 1982. Maria volcano ejected eight cubic kilometres of sand and ash in 36 hours, which covered almost ten towns and the provincial capitals of Central America Quetzaltenango and San Marcos, causing the The people of Central America face a situation deaths of at least 1,000 people and serious that is no less bleak. The levels of risks exposed damage to agriculture. Twenty-nine years later, in the mapping exercise can be illustrated by a second crater, called Santiaguito, opened up three factors: the recurrence of events with and has been active to this day. A combination of serious implications for the development of the the volcanic activity of Santiaguito and heavy region, a concrete example of which is provided rains laid waste to the town of El Palmar, by Guatemala; the damage caused to the testifying to the destructive potential of the population, the infrastructure, and the River Samala (stirred up by the quantity of sand economy (which can be seen in El Salvador); and and volcanic ash) along the length of its course the potential risk, as seen in the case of Costa to its mouth on the Pacific coast. Important Rica. Using these examples we can examine population centres along this track could share a three basic aspects in the evaluation of risks: similar fate. What has happened? What are the implications Apart from these momentous catastrophes, of present threats? And what can we expect in there have been other events caused by the future? torrential rains that have flooded the zone Throughout history, Central America, with a identified in the mapping. Hurricanes, total population of about 30 million, has droughts, landslides, and other devastating experienced disasters. In the Zones of Risk threats have similarly affected the area. For

24 Assessment of threats and risks example, the mapping exercise identified intensive rains and the extensive various rivers which cause great flooding along deforestation of the volcano. These factors, their courses in the south. According to local together with the poor planning of human people, near its mouth the river reaches such a settlements, created favourable conditions high level that parents hang their children in for the disaster, which left 500 dead and 2,400 hammocks from the tallest tree-tops to prevent injured, and destroyed 120 houses the turbulent waters from reaching them. (CEPRODE estimates). The losses in terms of The study's examination of past and probable housing were calculated by the Ministry of events in high-risk zones confirms the Planning in 1993 at US$418,765, and 20 impression, immortalised in the local saying, hectares of crops were lost. There were also that 'no corner of Guatemala is safe'. health problems, job losses, reductions in family incomes, and an increase in public El Salvador spending for the purpose of reconstruction. El Salvador is significantly affected by flooding and droughts in the high-risk zones. In the last • On 10 October 1986, one of the biggest 50 years, more than 25 serious floods have been earthquakes ever recorded affected the whole registered. CEPRODE's assessments of the of the population of San Salvador, leaving damage caused in this period indicate that more 1,500 dead, 45,600 houses destroyed, than 26,000 families have been seriously economic losses in the region of US$1,500m, affected by floods, more than 6,000 houses 250,000 families homeless, and 415 public damaged, 43,000 people injured, and 17,000 buildings damaged (according to the hectares of crops destroyed. On 16 October Ministry of Planning). 1993, strong tides in Sonsonate and La Libertad resulted in the water entering a considerable The risks associated with volcanic activity are distance inland, which caused serious flooding high, because the population is concentrated in the communities living in the coastal zone. around the most important volcanoes in the Severe droughts have also occurred, country. According to CEPRODE, the particularly in the east, with serious population exposed reaches 3.9 million, taking repercussions for agriculture. The Ministry of into account some of the smaller volcanoes. the Environment recorded losses of more than Both CEPRODE and USAID calculate that in 6,000 tons of basic grains in 1992. The 1991 the last 100 years damage in the region of drought caused losses of more than US$37m in US$2,000m has been caused by earthquakes the production of basic grains, and a reduction and volcanoes; more than 60,000 houses have in coffee production of 35-50 per cent. The been damaged, and 500,000 families have drought also had serious implications for the suffered injuries. energy industry, as there was drastic rationing, Landslides associated with seismic activity which caused daily losses in the order of and intensive rains occur frequently in the US$125,000, apart from the domestic losses not country, blocking roads, damaging the crops of quantified. small and medium-scale producers, and Seismic and volcanic activity also has serious affecting important urban centres. In 1995, repercussions: several landslides were reported in the settlements on , a consequence of • The earthquake of 3 May 1965 shook the the earthquake that occurred in San Salvador. areas surrounding San Salvador, leaving 10,000 families homeless. Costa Rica Two-thirds of the population of 3.3 million is • The 19 June 1982 earthquake was felt almost concentrated in the central valley (designated a right across the country, and was also Very High Risk Zone in Table 2). More than half perceptible in Guatemala, Honduras, of these people live in the metropolitan area of Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. It caused great San Jose and the seven provincial capitals. The material damage: 1,630 houses were country is predominantly urban, as the rest of destroyed, and 5,000 families left homeless. the population is concentrated in a few medium- • In 1982 a colossal earthquake occurred near sized cities (between 40,000 and 85,000 people), the top of the San Salvador volcano, affecting or in small rural communities. San Jose is the various areas to the north-east of San country's commercial centre and forms the axis Salvador. The cause was attributed to large of the so-called Central Corridor, of which the masses of soil becoming loose, due to the outer limits are the ports of Limon and

25 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

Puntarena. Ninety-five per cent of the country's Because of the 'zone of silence' off the coasts imports and exports are concentrated in these of Guanacaste, a huge earthquake is expected in two cities, and certain strategically important the Chorotega region, which will shake the industries are based there: the oil refineries, for nation in every sense. In addition, the growth of example. marginal communities around the capital city The country's production base is funda- has resulted in a significant risk of floods and mentally rural, with products like coffee, landslides. According to the Co-ordinator of bananas, sugar, cotton, and meat dominating in these communities, the people face annual terms of commerce and exports. Tourism, based flooding, during which drinking water and dirty on the country's beaches and eco-tourist water get mixed, settlements are destroyed by ventures, is also important in the national flood waters, houses collapse, and so on. A local economy. risk map, drawn up for the community of Los The population, economy, and infra- Guidos, reveals its precarious situation and illustrates the great degree of risk experienced structure are therefore concentrated precisely by more than 50 marginal communities around in the zones that are at high risk of seismic the capital city. In the centre of the country, activity, volcanoes, floods, hurricanes (indirect volcanic activity is very frequent and, although effects), and droughts. In addition, other risks, not of great magnitude (< 6.5 on the Richter whether natural (avalanches, rockfalls, etc.) or scale), earthquakes occur at surface level and are of human agency (pollution and technology- capable of great destruction. related emergencies), can also be triggered. In We conclude this section with a table that the last 10 years, the Institute of Meteorology summarises the levels of risk and impact that are has intervened in 33 emergencies of hydro- associated with hurricanes. [Hurricane Mitch, meteorological origin alone, which have caused estimated to be the third-strongest hurricane of losses estimated in total at US$ 670 million. The the century in Central America, struck the effects of storms and hurricanes (principally region in November 1998, after this report was because of floods) thus have significant written, and therefore too late to be considered consequences for the national economy. in detail. - Ed.]

Table 3: Hurricanes and damage caused across the region

Country/Occurrence Human cost Economic effects Losses (in US$ millions)

Honduras, 1974 8,000 dead GNP: -4.3% US$ 540 Hurricane Fifi 600,000 affected Agriculture: -8%

Nicaragua, 1988 120 dead GNP: -2% US$ 839 Hurricane Joan 300,000 affected Agriculture: -10%

Costa Rica, 1996 39 dead GNP: -0.7% US$ 151 Hurricane Cesar 500,000 affected Agriculture: -1%

Nicaragua 1996 9 dead GNP: -0.3% US$ 50.5 Hurricane Cesar 110,000 affected Agriculture: -0.2%

26 3 Assessment of vulnerability

Natural disasters, we assume, detonate crises in obtaining existing data; incompatible data; and contexts of social, economic, environmental, the frequent absence of a GIS, or inadequate and political instability, bringing to light a series use of one where it does exist. Local studies of of hidden conflicts and potentially dangerous vulnerability have rarely been based on situations. Here we seek to identify the most sufficiently precise studies of phenomena. For crucial problems of groups living in high-risk example, there is a lack of micro-seismic zones that make them vulnerable to, and in the studies, which makes it impossible to undertake end victims of, disasters. reliable studies of levels of infrastructural vulnerability in the region, whether public or private. Technical focus on vulnerability It is very difficult to establish the relationship between destructive phenomena and damage Vulnerability is defined in technical terms as the caused. Sometimes the predictive and planning proportion of human lives, assets, and economic systems used have been based on the activity that could be affected in a given place experiences of other countries (for example, US should a given disaster occur. This allows us to systems have been used to determine the effects evaluate the potential damage and thus to of earthquakes and hurricanes on housing). construct scales of risks, in view of the probability However, these systems are rarely adapted to of a destructive phenomenon occurring. In local conditions. For example, in the majority of addition, it allows us to calculate the potential cases, building regulations do not consider dead damage and its costs, and compare them with the weights on the roofs of houses, thus ignoring the cost of preventive actions to minimise the possibility of deposits of volcanic ash. Similarly, damage. We can therefore provide the people the force of winds considered in these who make political decisions with the tools to regulations does not correspond to the forces make those decisions and also persuade them of normally reached by hurricanes affecting the what needs to be taken into account when countries in the region. formulating disaster-prevention policies. As the present levels of vulnerability cannot These objectives have not yet been achieved be established, evaluations of the potential in Mexico and Central America, and research is consequences of natural disasters have tended still in its infancy. Previous studies tended to to focus on past events. It is therefore difficult to focus on destructive natural phenomena rather form a reasonably long-term view to enable than on vulnerability. Costa Rica is a case in comparisons to be made and to establish the point. There are plenty of data available in the relevance of the impact of past events to Geographic Information System (GIS) of the potential events in the future. National Emergencies Commission (CNE), but For all these reasons, analyses of vulnerability they consist of information which is relevant are severely inadequate. The principal initiatives essentially to the physical aspects of disasters, are essentially concerned with the vulnerability rather than their economic and social effects, of strategically important buildings such as although Costa Rica is one of the countries schools and hospitals, with housing being a where the investigation of natural risks is most secondary concern. In fact, hospitals were the advanced. In Guatemala, CONRED (the subject of the first significant attempts to use a National Commission for the Reduction of cost-benefit methodology to evaluate the Disasters) intends to carry out another economic consequences of damage caused by important study, but there are no firm plans. natural disasters. This situation can be explained principally by • The OEA/ECHO programme for the the insufficiency of data; lack of inter- reduction of vulnerability in the education institutional co-ordination; difficulties in sector represents an advance in this field,

27 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

although it is only at the pilot stage (covering A good example of the above is the case of the 1,500 schools in Central America out of a total Mexico City earthquake in 1985, which killed as of 4,500) and concentrates on the structure of many as 30,000 people and left approximately the buildings. The results of the studies are 60,000 homeless. It was clear that building not yet available, although some revealing regulations had not been observed, especially information is now available: in Honduras, those prohibiting construction in areas of high for instance, 55 per cent of schools are seismic activity. An example of this is that 60 per designated high-risk and highly vulnerable; cent of the buildings currently standing in and in Guatemala, more than 60 per cent of Mexico City have been built in danger zones, schools are designated very vulnerable, with no explanation to date of how this having been constructed without reference to happened. The result is a city with 18 million building regulations. inhabitants which runs the risk of being destroyed in the next earthquake. • Programmes to analyse and reduce the vulnerability of hospitals have also been carried out, particularly in Costa Rica, where many hospitals were shown to be seriously Political focus on vulnerability vulnerable. These have all been reconstructed Political vulnerability is defined as the inverse using special structural engineering tech- value of a community's level of autonomy in niques, financed at great cost by the Costa taking decisions that affect it. That is, the greater Rican authorities (Caja Costarricense de the autonomy, the less the political vulnerability Seguro Social). According to the National of the community. Disaster Prevention Unit of the Ministry for In countries with highly centralised Health and Social Security in Guatemala, of governments, political vulnerability has two 36 hospitals, 35 per cent were designated very facets. Firstly, it is harder for a community to vulnerable. In Mexico, according to the attract the attention of decision makers at a Mexican Red Cross, of 86 hospitals, 80 per national level. Secondly, local communities find cent were designated very vulnerable. it hard to formulate their own solutions to a given problem, and to apply local knowledge Few studies have dealt with the technical and resources to their solutions, thus limiting vulnerability of buildings, especially domestic the need for external help to that which is housing. One important study, carried out in strictly necessary. 1995 by CEPREDENAC/OEA, is worth noting. However, in Mexico and Central America a It was incorporated into the Regional Plan of process of decentralisation and municipal Human Settlements and Housing, under the autonomy now features prominently on the auspices of Habitat II in 1996. An action plan for agendas of leading decision makers. Given the Central America identifies the municipalities framework of the democratisation that is taking and areas of towns most vulnerable to natural place in the region, the issue of autonomy has disasters, with the emphasis on the most come to the forefront. However, it is a long-term precarious settlements. process, and there are still many problems Vulnerable housing is a critical issue in the preventing greater progress. What has region. Firstly, building regulations seldom occurred so far has been a process of address the reality of the risks, given the absence 'deconcentration' rather than decentralisation. of detailed studies of .zones of seismic activity. That is, a series of problems and responsibilities Secondly, limited financial resources mean that have been transferred to municipalities, but these regulations are not observed. And thirdly, without the resources to deal with the problems there is major corruption in dealings between and to address social needs. Given the high construction firms and the bodies responsible levels of poverty which these municipalities face, for ensuring that building regulations are they cannot be autonomous in dealing with the observed, particularly when the buildings in risks and consequences of disasters, whatever question are in earthquake-prone zones. their origin. According to the information available, In terms of political vulnerability, the Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala are the countries of Central America are among the most vulnerable in this respect, followed by El poorest in the world (with the exception of Salvador and Mexico, and finally Costa Rica and Costa Rica) and the most indebted. They have Panama. no economic or financial autonomy or food

28 Assessment of vulnerability security, since they are very dependent on resources will reach the communities for which external help in tackling development they are destined, and the groups they aim to problems, including dealing with disasters. The reach. management of natural disasters is related to In Mexico, the situation is similarly somewhat political systems that are in deep crisis, and are complicated, in that although the government characterised by administrations which are does not ask for help once an emergency has been greatly tainted by corruption, impunity, and declared, it cannot itself help those in need. The unethical behaviour. This does not inspire the vulnerability of communities affected by a confidence of the population as a whole, nor of disaster is obvious, as they do not have the the aid agencies that work on disaster capacity to manage their own problems prevention or intervene in emergencies. For themselves, but must rely on others to help them, example, from 1982 to 1983 the region of through actions which may or may not be Guanacaste in Costa Rica suffered a severe effective, owing to economic policy or party drought with great losses to agricultural politics. The problem is aggravated when, production. The money to compensate for the because of political polarisation, no decision is losses sustained during the drought and the taken, or a decision is made too late, in both cases earthquake in San Isidro El General was with serious consequences for local communities. administered through the National Emergency Recent such cases include the drought during Fund of the National Emergencies Commission which the governments of Honduras and (CNE) and directly by the Presidential Office. Nicaragua refused to declare a state of In 1985 it was discovered that fraud, estimated emergency for political reasons. This prevented initially to be worth US$300,000 and rising with the international community from giving time to almost US$3m, had occurred. In 1986 a assistance. For example, UNDP in Nicaragua has number of people were accused, including ex- resources available for emergencies that it does President Monge, ex-Vice President Arauz, and not commit, unless it receives an official request Monge's former Personal Assistant. In 1994, from the government and a state of emergency is after a trial lasting 10 years, Monge and Arauz declared. were exonerated of any blame. One interesting aspect concerns compliance This incident undermined public confidence with the Code of Conduct for aid in emergencies. in the CNE and was an important factor in its Many organisations consulted on the matter said lack of progress and consolidation. In addition, that in general their governments observed the as the scandal was at its peak, the Office of Civil Code, though we consider this to be dubious. For Defence underwent various management instance, in Costa Rica, the First Lady has changes which prevented continuity in its work, repeatedly delivered food to disaster areas, leaving disaster professionals frustrated at the distributing it directly and with no controls, and slow progress. This incident illustrates how frequently in a form and a quantity (including levels of vulnerability can be increased by the products not suited to the local needs) that way in which disasters are managed, as much as promote dependency. But such actions do get by the disasters themselves. wide press coverage, which may of course be the On the other hand, in some respects disasters intention. are being managed in a positive way. In general, In other cases, politicians capitalise on all the countries are making an effort to establish emergencies to gain votes. For example, in rules for international aid in emergency August 1997 President Reina of Honduras situations, through certain procedures that visited the drought-affected departments of must be followed through the foreign offices of Valle and Choluteca and promised the each country. El Salvador and Costa Rica have communities that in the next term of made most progress in this matter. However, government (if his party won the November although these measures can help to manage elections) he would construct a dam in the area external aid and channel aid from friendly to ensure irrigation and to reduce their countries, they can also complicate matters for vulnerability. The main campesino organisation international NGOs already in the area. In in Honduras, the COCOCH, says that the addition, it is difficult for organisations to irrigation is destined for the large producers in channel significant quantities of resources the area and that campesino farmers will continue without the security of knowing that they will to be exposed to drought and increasingly reach those who need them most. Similarly, difficult conditions, given the salinisation organisations cannot know for certain whether occurring in that area of the country.

29 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

Finally, and still on the theme of the Code of A regional view of social Conduct, the independence of NGOs in their humanitarian aid work is not respected, vulnerability particularly in Mexico and Nicaragua. Nor is Although Central America experiences more information exchange being facilitated in disasters than almost anywhere else in the emergency situations, which makes it difficult for world, and these disasters have common roots in NGOs to act effectively, as occurred in the case of the natural, socio-economic, and political the drought in Honduras and Nicaragua. environment of the region as a whole, few studies have focused on a regional analysis or strategy. Existing studies have tended to focus Social focus on vulnerability on individual cases in isolation from their regional context. Almost without exception, the The very nature of underdevelopment means methodologies and techniques used to date that disasters are a secondary issue in the have had a local focus, concentrating on places context of the many needs that must be met. where the risks of disasters and emergencies In Mexico and Central America, under- have been experienced. standing of disasters and their management is still limited. The incapacity of governments to solve The uniqueness of the mapping exercise the primary problems that characterise countries described here is that it was obliged to adopt a with a low level of development makes for a regional focus in order to analyse the situation in which disaster-response is not a vulnerability of the communities exposed to the priority. The primary problems include the risks of disasters in Mexico and Central elimination of the extreme poverty suffered by America. It is a complex task to carry out a broad sectors of society; economic and tech- regional or national analysis of the vulnerability nological dependence on other countries; the of communities in the face of disasters, in that great deficit in public finances; the need to the focus has always been on the characteristics improve and expand the infrastructure for of a past or probable event, usually with the aim development; the need for decent housing; and a of taking steps for preparedness and response. lack of jobs. Governments seem to act on the An analysis of vulnerability, however, is more assumption that disasters may or may not occur, useful for determining necessary steps for and so it makes more sense to concentrate first on preparedness, mitigation, and response. solving or addressing the more immediate needs Studies of vulnerability with a local focus tend which, while diey have been urgent for decades, to employ detailed analyses of the following: the are becoming increasingly acute. systems of production in an area; the There is a tendency to focus on problems infrastructure and access to services; fiscally in terms of projected risks and communications and transport systems; the vulnerabilities, rather than from a social dominant culture and the capacities of local perspective. Only one organisation, The agents and communities for organisation and Network of Social Studies for the Prevention of mobilisation; and the degree of preparedness of Natural Disasters in Latin America (LA RED), has a group or community in the face of possible been concerned with generating knowledge and emergencies. At a regional level it is almost proposals for a study of social vulnerability; it has impossible to evaluate all of these, given the promoted some very valuable new concepts. This diversity of situations and the near impossibility has influenced organisations such as the Latin of ensuring field trips and interviews across such American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO) a wide area. Thus, in order to adopt a focus and (regional), CEPRODE (El Salvador), UNAM methodology which allowed risks and vulner- (Mexico), and the German organisation GTZ abilities and the factors common to each to be (regional), among others, to consider human visualised on a regional and national scale, the factors of vulnerability in their analyses and studies. Apart from these isolated instances, there study sacrificed elements of the rich diversity of are no serious studies of social vulnerability. The different localities, except in some cases where problem centres on the difficulty of obtaining field visits were possible. detailed information about local risks. As a result, Social-vulnerability assessment uses the living there is a lack of real tools for decision making — conditions of the communities in a given region as tools which could influence decision-makers and trace indicators, on the basis that these reflect not direct their policies, and which might help to just the resources available to these communities, solve the underlying problems. but also their degree of marginalisation and

30 Assessment of vulnerability exclusion from social, economic, and political probability and risk of epidemics or death systems. It thus provides us with a clear link during and after a disaster or emergency. between the two focuses of emergencies and • The level of malnutrition is used to indicate development, in that the degree of vulnerability of the degree of food security of a given a given community is a consequence of that community. Levels for women and girls are community's level of inclusion in or exclusion considered separately, as they tend to be the from the general model of development. In fact, most vulnerable to malnutrition. If there is the reduction of vulnerability belongs under the high overall malnutrition, food shortages in heading of 'development' rather than in the an emergency put women and girls in an even category of 'emergencies' as it is conventionally more precarious situation, causing starvation conceived. and even death. The study also deals with the differing levels of vulnerability of women and men. The trace • The proportion of households headed by indicators of living conditions are differentiated women, and their level of poverty. The level by sex whenever the statistics and collected of vulnerability of these households is shown studies allow for this. Other fundamental by the fact that their probability of survival in elements that demonstrate the differing levels of the event of an emergency is less, since they vulnerability of men and women are also have limited access to services and resources, covered, such as female poverty, the proportion including the benefits of development of families headed by women, and their state of programmes. Their participation in the health and nutrition. Similarly, the community and in co-operatives, through participation of women in social organisations is which resources are channelled in considered, because this in itself facilitates or emergencies, is also limited. limits their access to emergency resources. Also studied is the participation of women in rural • The level of illiteracy, which also varies agricultural production. according to sex. This is in itself an indicator To summarise, we assume that at a regional of marginalisation and is a decisive factor in level vulnerability can be measured by the the community's access to information, current living conditions of a threatened group, services, and resources in every sense, which varies according to sectors (rural/urban, including in emergency situations. women/men), and the probability that a given • Living conditions, where vulnerability is occurrence (threat) will outstrip their capacity commonly seen in overcrowding and the for survival and meeting their basic needs. The precarious structure of housing. These factors following factors have been considered. allow us to determine the degree of protection • The level of poverty, which in itself indicates or weakness, should a threat occur. that families have severely limited resources Two prevailing factors on government agendas and precarious survival conditions, across the region also tend to increase the particularly when they are living in vulnerability of communities at risk: economic conditions of extreme poverty. Associated structural adjustment and poverty. with and resulting from extreme poverty are Structural adjustment policies have two all the other characteristics of vulnerability common factors with a negative impact: first, (such as low level of schooling, lack of basic services, inadequate housing), because the monetary policies, which cause rural level of poverty expresses the productivity of production to slow down and urban the family, whether measured by the extent to unemployment to grow, resulting in greater which a family can meet their basic needs or numbers of unemployed and impoverished by the poverty line (capacity to access basic people, living in insecure conditions in both staples, given a determined level of family cities and the countryside; and, second, income). The more precarious the family's reductions in social spending in order to bring capacity for survival, the more fragile their down fiscal deficits and public expenditure, productivity in the face of external factors. which affect the poorest the most. Despite the modernisation of the state that is supposed to • The standard of health (mortality, morbidity). accompany structural adjustment, there has Although this is in itself related to overall levels been reluctance and resistance on the part of of poverty, it expresses the degree of hygiene central government to decentralise and to and sanitation of the community and the strengthen local and municipal government.

31 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

These local authorities ought to be the principal Female poverty and above all the agents in articulating local development efforts feminisation of poverty are complex topics, and and strengthening the capacity of communities it is not the intention of this study to enter into and individuals for preparedness, prevention, an exhaustive discussion of them. It aims rather and mitigation in the event of disasters. But to indicate certain factors, so that the differing there is no real tradition of local government in conditions experienced by impoverished the region, except in the capital and major cities women and men can be seen. About 25 per cent of each country. Elsewhere local government is of households in the region are headed by effectively an institutional reference point women, because of the death of the spouse in without resources or decision-making capacity. conflict, or abandonment, or the spouse's If this system is maintained, vulnerability in migration for political or economic reasons. The affected zones will progressively increase. figures for Nicaragua and Honduras are The connections between poverty and especially high, at 36 per cent and 27 per cent vulnerability are clear. In the last 20 years the respectively. The importance of ensuring a region has been exposed to various situations gender perspective in emergency programmes arising from the prevailing economic and is evident here, particularly if the distribution political structures, for example the economic of, for example, food is carried out through the crisis facing highly dependent economies, the male head of the family, which in many cases exacerbation of armed conflicts, and the impact means that fatherless households are excluded. of structural adjustment. The combined effects There are exceptionally high levels of poverty have resulted in migration, both internally and externally, an increase in the levels of within these households. In Honduras, for unemployment and poverty, and the growing example, 72 per cent of families headed by exclusion of broad sectors of the population women live in extreme poverty, compared with from access to goods and basic services. a figure of 63 per cent overall. As can be seen from Table 4, every country The feminisation of poverty in the region is has registered increasing levels of poverty and only partly demonstrated by the differences in of extreme poverty. Even in the case of Costa levels of poverty experienced by men and Rica, where the overall level has stayed the women. It is also seen in the degree of the same, the increase in extreme poverty is poverty experienced, and the greater worrying. Given the continuation of pro- difficulties confronting women when they try grammes of structural adjustment and the to escape from this condition. The inequalities economic changes brought about by in opportunity in, for example, education, globalisation, the trend has been one of greater employment, pay (Table 6), ownership, and deterioration, principally because of the credit severely marginalise women and trap increase in extreme poverty, as economic them in poverty. When adversity strikes, their policies cause even greater exclusion of the survival is even more precarious, because of poor in rural and marginal urban areas. inequalities even in access to humanitarian aid. On average, women in Central America earn Table 4: Poverty in Mexico and Central almost 25 per cent less than men do for equal America work. There are also differences in levels of literacy, the greatest difference being in % living in poverty Extreme poverty Guatemala, where 48 per cent of women are Country 1980 1991 1980 1991 illiterate, compared with 34 per cent of men. In Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, levels of Costa Rica 27.3 27.7 13.6 18.5 male and female illiteracy are almost the same. However, the overall picture changes El Salvador 70.2 75.4 51.1 52.3 substantially when the same figures are broken Guatemala 63.8 75.8 31.5 52.2 down by sector (rural/urban or indigenous population). For example, 36 per cent of Honduras 67.6 76.5 56.8 62.7 indigenous men in Panama are illiterate, whereas for women the figure is approaching 53 Nicaragua 63.8 74.4 33.3 41.8 per cent. In short, Central American women experience above-average conditions of Mexico 44.9 59.9 10.0 no data marginalisation and poverty.

32 Assessment of vulnerability

Table 5: Families headed by women

Mexico Guatemala El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica Panama

Families 18% 22% No data 27% 36% 23% 25% headed by women*

% living in no data No data No data 72% No data 12% 49% extreme poverty**

* in urban areas, 1990 ** on average (rural-urban)

Table 6: Women's earnings as a proportion of men's earnings, 1990, and corresponding levels of illiteracy

Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua £1 Salvador

% of male salary earned by women 76% 77% 77% No data 77% No data

M F M F M F M F M F M F

Male and female illiteracy 10% 15% 34% 48% 24% 29% 23% 24% 10% 11% 24% 30%

Female participation in agriculture produce is eaten by the family members The participation of women in agricultural themselves and is the main source of variety in production in Central America has been used as their diet. When disasters strike, causing losses an indicator to measure vulnerability, because in food produced at home, they put the food emergencies also have an impact on female security of the family in direct jeopardy. If production, causing losses, for example in humanitarian aid is to re-establish food produce grown on the solar or family plot. As security and restore production, resources women's contribution to production becomes must be directly targeted at these household clear, particularly its role in assuring food economies. security for the family, so does the need to devise Often the income deriving from such and implement emergency programmes which economies, although not great, is more stable salvage their production as well as that of men, than the income from men's agricultural and restore the losses caused by droughts, production, because women's production is floods, hurricanes, and other disasters. more varied and is less affected by national or On average, between 60 per cent and 84 per international markets. In times of crisis, or when cent of women in Central America contribute to there are severe production shortages on the the production of basic grains through their small-holding, the very survival of the family work on rural small-holdings; between 70 per depends on what is produced by women. It is cent and 90 per cent help to farm cattle. precisely the vegetables and fruit grown at home Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and Panama and the poultry raised in the yard that make are the countries where the most cattle-farming continued survival possible. takes place (IICA 1996). Women are also responsible for tending the family plot, growing vegetables and fruit trees, Indigenous peoples and poultry farming. All these tasks contribute Throughout the region live indigenous to the food security of the family, as this communities who maintain their traditional

33 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities ways of life, culture, and governance. In Mexico the result of displacement because of war and and Guatemala, they form a large part of the the increasingly precarious rural economy. As a demographic composition (13 per cent and 49 result of this mass displacement, cities and towns per cent respectively). In Honduras, El Salvador, in the region house huge numbers of the now and Nicaragua the proportion varies between 4 urban poor, in settlements where the living per cent and 7 per cent of the total population. conditions, lack of basic services, and (In the areas where these communities are unemployment all increase their vulnerability. concentrated, however, they may be the majority The disasters of the greatest magnitude occur or sole ethnic group.) The needs of indigenous along the highly populated Pacific coastline, and populations are highly relevant to emergency the majority of the urban poor of the region work, because the areas where they live are also have suffered sudden volcanic eruptions, those which are at very high risk. earthquakes, and landslides. The indigenous communities are highly Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El marginalised and hence exhibit high levels of Salvador all register high annual levels of poverty. This is because they lack resources and growth in the urban population (4.0, 4.7, 4.1, access to services, and because of their and 3.6 per cent respectively), which will geographical inaccessibility, which is a product continue to rise as young people are forced out of their exclusion from prevailing socio- of deprived rural areas and have no alternative economic systems. If we add to this their but to move to the cities. These young migrants marginalisation from established channels of increase the levels of urban poverty, which is expression, and hence from participating in further aggravated by the fact that none of the making decisions that affect their lives, we can countries has any plans for urban development. see that they are left very vulnerable in the event Precarious settlements continue to spread of disasters. It is precisely this level of exclusion chaotically, with bad use of land. These that has led many of these groups in Guatemala, settlements generally have no services and face Mexico, and Nicaragua in particular to great risks, as they are situated on hillsides, are strengthen their organisational structures. structurally unsound, and are built with Some have even entered into conflict with the inadequate materials. dominant groups to find and express solutions to their needs. While increased urbanisation has meant that the rural population has decreased, war across wide areas of the countryside, and now Progressive rural exclusion and structural adjustment have led to increasing increasingly vulnerable cities marginalisation and poverty in rural areas. The population of the region -has become What is more, the contraction and slowing down increasingly urbanised. Unlike the urbanisation of the agricultural export industry, owing to the of the 1960s and 1970s, which was caused by crisis in international prices, has created processes of industrialisation, the latest phase is widespread unemployment in rural areas,

Table 7: Proportion of the population of Central America living in poverty

Urban sector Rural sector % Population % Poverty % Population Deforestation 1980 1990 1980 1990 1980 1990 hectares

Costa Rica 46.0 53.6 17 19 54.0 46.4 33.3 38.8 50.0 3.1

El Salvador 41.5 47.7 58 63 58.5 52.3 76.9 84.9 5.0 3.2

Guatemala 38.5 42.0 66 67 61.5 58.0 66.7 86.1 90.0 2.0

Honduras 35.9 43.6 44 61 64.1 56.4 67.5 79.3 80.0 2.3

Nicaragua 53.4 59.6 46 56 46.6 40.4 76.9 87.8 100.0 2.7

34 Assessment of vulnerability

where incomes depend on permanent or for sewage disposal are similarly lacking, and • seasonal work. Moreover, structural adjustment even more disturbingly a large number of urban measures have curtailed the aid and credit households are not connected to sewage programmes that supported the fragile systems, but have latrines. economies of small and medium-sized There is serioDs over-crowding and producers and have reduced them to inadequate housing infrastructure, for example subsistence level. Cuts in public spending, walls made of bahareque (mud and wattle) or principally on education and health care, have wood, and earth floors. A very high proportion of also had a fundamental impact on the rural households use wood-stoves. In addition, population, whose access to these services is settlements have not been planned, but have increasingly limited. grown organically as poor families have migrated All the Central American countries have or resettled, which is the reason for the shown an increase in rural poverty, with proliferation of improvised houses on hillsides Guatemala and Honduras reflecting this most and in high-risk locations. These people are more drastically. The rural areas have also suffered greatly exposed to earthquakes and the collapse disasters, both natural and conflict-related. of the hillsides around the edges of towns. Wide areas fluctuate between flooding and With the exception of Costa Rica, all the drought, with conditions exacerbated by the countries have continued to build up an high level of deforestation, in areas where soil increasing housing deficit, which is becoming and woodland have not been properly ever more difficult to resolve. Indeed, the managed. The degradation of soil, woodland, problem is being aggravated by the influx of and water resources also means that the rural migrants and by people moving house productivity of small and medium-sized farms within cities, putting great pressure on urban will be reduced. land. This has often resulted in clashes and violence, and the press reports people being Inadequate housing forcibly evicted on a daily basis, with no The day-to-day living conditions and hygiene of alternative accommodation provided for them the majority of families in the region, which are by their governments. a product of chronic poverty, are the most The collapse of the slopes of the San Salvador crucial factors in evaluating their level of volcano in 1982, which occurred as a result of a protection or vulnerability in the face of combination of heavy rains and deforestation, disasters. Nearly one third of families lack access serves as a good illustration: 50 people living in to services like clean drinking water. The the precarious settlements on the slopes died, situation is even more serious in rural areas, 2,400 people were injured, 120 houses were where, with the exception of Costa Rica, all the completely destroyed, and losses suffered by countries show alarming deficiencies. Services other households were estimated at US$0.5m.

Table 8: Hygiene and living conditions

Country Access to clean drinking water 9D Access to % Using Over- Weak sanitation % firewood Crowding infra structure

1980 1991 Urban Rural Urban Rural

Costa Rica 72 92 85 99 100 94 33 11.6 No data

El Salvador 53 57 78 38 91 65 46 52.7 75.8

Guatemala 39 64 92 43 72 52 57 56.7 No data

Honduras 41 67 81 53 96 61 62 64 No data

Nicaragua 46 60 81 23 77 34 70 53.6 46.0

Mexico 62 77 90 66 81 29 no data 57 35

35 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

Disasters and health Throughout Central America (bar Costa Rica), Although official health statistics record a slight rates of infant mortality are increasing. In Mexico, improvement in the principal indicators, with the infant mortality rate has fallen. The causes of death are similar, with intestinal infections the the exception of Costa Rica (where there is an principal factor, followed by respiratory almost universal system of health care) only a infections, with malnutrition contributing to some fraction of the population is covered by public 85 per cent of infant deaths. This situation is health services (Table 9). Central America clearly associated with poverty (poor diet, water, continues to be the region of Latin America sanitation, schooling, etc.) and also reflects the where the general health status of the restricted access of poorer communities to these population has deteriorated most severely. It services (see Table 10). should be noted that this information shows Although the rates are highest in rural areas, national or regional averages, not sufficiently coinciding with patterns for the distribution of refined to show the inequalities or gaps in the poverty, it is also true that the urban rates do not service that affect different socio-economic reflect the true situation exactly. This was groups, or differentials between women and demonstrated by a study carried out in Managua men. in 1991 (UNICEF-MINSA), where, when the deaths were grouped according to the level of schooling of the mother, the death rate of the Table 9: Rates of infant and maternal children of illiterate urban women was 101 per mortality 1,000 live births, while that of the children of illiterate rural women was 79 per 1,000 live Country Mortality Maternal births. With the exception of accidents as a cause under mortality of death in the under-fives, the pattern in 5 years old per 10,000 countries with a high death rate is the same in live births this group as for infants, i.e. the cause of death is linked to poverty and marginalisation. Costa Rica 14 16 4 Maternal mortality rates have also increased, even allowing for the under-registration of El Salvador 42 56 14 deaths in this category through inadequate Guatemala 60 70 22 classification systems. These deaths are associated with a lack of health care before and during the Honduras 49 54 22 birth. This shows not only the level of marginalisation of a large part of the population Nicaragua 56 68 15 from services, and their lack of access for geographical or economic reasons, but also a Mexico 36 no data 6 culture of widespread rejection of and lack of confidence in these services. Moreover, it shows Source: FLACSO, 1995 the low priority accorded to the maternal and

Table 10: Causes of infant mortality

Infant mortality% Costa Rica £1 Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua

Intestinal infections 15 50 57 61 4 7.9

Respiratory infections 8 35 37 37 28 13.3

Perinatal causes 13 19 24 15 19 43.3

Illnesses preventable by 0 10 14 16 4 2 immunisation

Under-nourishment 1 7 7 4 6 2.7

Other causes 71 24 12 20 33 30.8

36 Assessment of vulnerability reproductive health of women, which is an of peripheral health centres but also in the expression of the gender discrimination inherent introduction of charges in mobile clinics and in in the system. hospitals. Resources and qualified personnel are There is a noticeably high rate of maternal concentrated in urban centres, while private mortality in Guatemala and Honduras, which health services, which mainly cover urban areas, both have a rate of 22 deaths per 10,000 live have increased. Most public services suffer from births, followed by Nicaragua with 15 per 10,000. permanent shortages of countless essentials and It should however be noted that the national equipment. averages obscure differences across states or All this paints a picture of a situation in which departments, and even between urban and rural health services have a reduced capacity to meet areas. For example, a study of the state of Tlaxcala the growing demands of a population that is in Mexico found that the maternal mortality there more exposed than ever to the risk of disease and was almost three times the national average, death, as a result of everyday living conditions. approaching 19 per 10,000 live births. Vulnerability, which is already high, is increasing The health services in the region have because of the current political climate. deteriorated in recent years (see Table 11), principally because of fiscal policy and cuts in social spending. Only in Costa Rica and El Malnutrition and under-nourishment Salvador has the ratio of inhabitants per doctor A crucial aspect in determining the vulnerability improved. Reform of health services has begun of communities is their degree of food security with budget cuts, resulting not only in the closure (Table 12). Evidendy poverty and unemployment

Table 11: Health services in the region

Health services Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Mexico

Inhabitants/Doctor 1980 1.473 2.860 1.773 2.945 2.067 1.081

Inhabitants/Doctor 1990 1.136 1.563 4.000 3.130 1.670 1.850

Beds/1000 inhabitants 1980 3.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.7 0.8

Beds/1000 inhabitants 1990 2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.7

% Hospital births 97 66 23 63 42 45

Table 12: Dietary and nutritional conditions

Country Food Food Calorie Acute infant Under- Under- production imported intake under- weight nourished 1980 =100 1980 =100 nourishment at birth mothers (index of body weight)

Costa Rica 104 72 100 6 6 no data

El Salvador 95 123 78 13 11 9.1

Guatemala 94 109 78 34 14 13.9

Honduras 89 118 70 19 9 18.2

Nicaragua 64 123 77 12 12 10.4

Mexico no data 180 100 14 5 no data

37 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities determine the level of consumption and nutrition which are directly related to patterns of of a household. This is even more the case when economic growth and the political and social the purchasing power of the salaries of those in organisation of a country. It is not sheer work provides no guarantees. Starting with a coincidence that the most deprived areas and value of 100 in 1980, the only country that has communities in the region have been the sites maintained that level of salary is Honduras (99.9 and protagonists of the conflicts that raged in per cent). As for the rest of the countries, in some the 1980s, nor that they have suffered when the level has been moderately reduced, for natural disasters have struck. A cycle of poverty, example in Costa Rica (to 86.7 per cent of the conflict, and recurrent loss of lives and former value) and Guatemala (78.4 per cent), and resources as a result of emergencies has in others it has been drastically reduced, for developed, which has weakened people's example in El Salvador (to 34 per cent) and capacity to participate in an on-going process of Nicaragua (to 12.4 percent). sustainable human development. In each cycle Evidently families have developed survival things are gained and then lost as circumstances strategies which range from participating in the fluctuate, and in the majority of cases survival growth of the informal urban sector (principally merely means starting again in a worse in commercial activities), to prostitution, delin- condition, ready to begin the next cycle. quency, and, in the last few years, migration. This The living conditions of vulnerable groups has not only sustained families in receipt of are deteriorating in contrast with the general payments but has also provided one of the main trends in the economies of the countries in the sources of income for countries, principally El region. On the whole, the countries of the Salvador (around US$1.2m, or double the value region are demonstrating increasingly better of exports), Guatemala and Nicaragua (about health standards, while the poor, the US$350m a year, equivalent to the total value of indigenous peoples, women, and children — exports). In these three countries, families in the great majority — all remain extremely receipt of this income spend it almost exclusively vulnerable in the face of the risks to which they on food (82 per cent or more), so it can be are exposed. Natural disasters and conflicts assumed that it provides the sole or most important source of income for these families. have always affected the poorest people most, and Mexico and Central America are no In addition, structural adjustment pro- exception. The livelihoods and resources lost in grammes have further restricted support for the many disasters that have occurred have agricultural production, except in the export rarely been recuperated. The same areas and industry. This has caused food production to groups affected in the past are those that are still slow down and increased the amount of food exposed to the greatest risks today, in situations imported and the degree of food dependency. Costa Rica is the only country where production of high and increasing vulnerability. is increasing and imports decreasing. As a result, To sum up, the entire region is exposed to a there are deficiencies in terms of calorie intake, high risk in the face of all types of threat, but the and apart from Costa Rica and Mexico (despite most vulnerable groups are those living in the their greater dependency) food consumption in areas that also show the greatest levels of all the countries is apparently well below the poverty, and, with the exception of Costa Rica, necessary level. Levels of acute under-nutrition which has managed to improve its living (weight/height) in children are very high, as is standards, the link between poverty and stunting of growth, seen in 35-50 per cent of vulnerability remains a constant and a school-age children. The number of under- challenge. weight births continues to be widely under- recorded, as figures tell only of births in health- care institutions, i.e. a very low proportion. Even A country-by-country view of so, the rate is high, reflecting not only the social vulnerability vulnerability of the infant but also the degree of under-nutrition of mothers, seen also in the This section aims to give a basic overview of the index of body weight. communities facing the greatest levels of risks in This all means that the degree of the event of emergencies, and to describe the vulnerability, although defined according to the general conditions prevailing in zones risk of a given threat, is essentially determined categorised as 'high risk' in Mexico, Guatemala, by levels of marginalisation and exclusion, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

38 Assessment of vulnerability

Mexico preventable intestinal infections and respiratory The two areas of Mexico categorised as 'high diseases, including diarrhoea, influenza, and risk' are the central region, comprising 10 states pneumonia, as well as measles. The sixth most covering the most densely populated area of the common cause of death among indigenous country, including the Federal District people is malnutrition, which appears in twelfth (metropolitan area), and the south, including place for the Mexican population overall; indeed the states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Veracruz. In the death rate for the indigenous population is reality, the two zones are fairly homogeneous in 1.3 times that of the global figure for Mexico. terms of their overall social vulnerability. The There is considerable malnutrition, partic- central region is well known for its social ularly among women. In rural areas, it affects inequalities, while the south contains three of one-fifth of all women of child-bearing age Mexico's five most marginalised states. The (OPS/PAHO 1994), with nutritional and whole of the south registers average levels of metabolic difficulties constituting the second- poverty which are far greater than those in the commonest cause of female mortality. At the rest of the country. The high proportion of poor same time, at least 17 per cent of Mexican housing without running water or sanitation is households are headed by women, and female also well known. Over-crowding, although it illiteracy stands at 63 per cent. occurs principally in the south, is fairly generalised in the country. Within the central Table 13: Vulnerability among zone, the states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, and Mexican women Puebla are classified as the third, fourth, and sixth most marginalised states in Mexico. Illiteracy 15% of women are illiterate Although the situation seems to be better in (63% of the total incidence the Federal District, which comes last in terms of of illiteracy in Mexico) its degree of marginalisation (in 32nd place), the impression is illusory. Just a tiny percentage 3 principal causes of 1. Circulatory illnesses increase in the already more than 10m inhab- female mortality 2. Nutritional and itants who face high risks and vulnerabilities metabolic problems would be enough to equal the number in other 3. Tumours states. What should be emphasised, however, is the high risk of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions Maternal mortality 6.1 per 10,000 live births (Popocatepetl), and landslides in precarious (under-registered) settlements. Households headed 17.3% Within the two high-risk zones, different by women (approximately 3 million) groups face differing degrees of vulnerability:

• the indigenous populations who represent 36 Source: Elu, 1996 and FLACSO, 1993 per cent of the total population in the state of Oaxaca, 25 per cent in Chiapas, 17 per cent in Hidalgo, 13 per cent in Puebla, and 10 per In the highly marginalised states in question, cent in Veracruz; infant mortality is as high as 1.5 times the • the marginalised rural and urban populations national average. The causes are the same as in the entire area; those resulting from poverty and exclusion • the population around Popocatepetl. (intestinal and respiratory infections, mal- nutrition, etc.). These states also have the Within these groups, indigenous people and highest fertility rates (with an average of more women in general are more vulnerable, than five children per woman). In states where particularly where families are without fathers, there are lower levels of marginalisation, the as shown by the indicators of health status causes of infant mortality are mainly perinatal prevailing among them. or congenital. The same is true of maternal As the WHO/PAHO report of 1996 indicates, mortality (although the figures are distorted infectious diseases deriving from insanitary through under-registration). Moreover, the conditions, malnutrition, and poverty are not differences between states are considerable. A among the six primary overall causes of death in study in the state of Tlaxcala found a rate of Mexico. However, among the five primary maternal mortality of 19.8 per 10,000 live births, causes of death in the indigenous population are three times the national average (Elu 1996).

39 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

Popocatepetl other municipalities visited (Almecameca, The conditions and degrees of vulnerability , ), there are postal services, described above are also generally found in the telephones, and electricity. However, the urban communities threatened by Popocatepetl, telephones (so important in an emergency in settlements which have the same high degree situation) do not work. Local people explain that of unmet basic needs as those in rural areas. This they 'were installed for political reasons, not to pattern appears across a series of communities solve the communication problems of the which are relatively widely dispersed, and where community'. The main access road to the the population is largely concentrated in urban communities at risk is relatively good, but areas. These communities are living in high-risk secondary roads are affected by great cracks zones, according to the mapping carried out by which have developed at the foot of the volcano. SINAPROC, and their vulnerability is greater This increases the vulnerability of groups living than their socio-economic conditions might away from the main road, because it would be suggest, because of the high degree of political almost impossible to evacuate them in the event polarisation. of an emergency. In Tlamanalco, for instance, most people are In terms of the organisation and cohesion of aged between 12 and 24 years. Some of these the people in the communities concerning the young people are involved in business and risks they all face, there are difficulties in co- service industries, but a large proportion are ordination which have been caused by unemployed and so forced to seek alternatives in widespread political polarisation, resulting the informal sector, despite the good agricultural from the fact that the opposition has taken land. Consequently, people are very dependent control of various municipalities since the last on cash income and the market for their food elections. This fact is also relevant at other levels, security. The production of maize and beans for in view of the fact that SINAPROC also works in family consumption takes place alongside the a very centralised way, and it is possible that in production of and trade in flowers and fruit. the event of an emergency it might not prioritise Women work principally in buying and selling assistance to the communities administered by the latter. Few families have cattle and sheep. the opposition. This struggle for political power These are good sources of food and income but, increases the high levels of vulnerability of the as is the case with agriculture, livestock is easily threatened population. affected by volcanic activity, with a great risk of There are other important elements losses to families who, because of their level of concerning preparedness for disaster response. poverty, would be unable to recover them. In Tlamanalco, there are only three civil Approximately one-quarter of the population protection agents. They have given some talks in here actually live in the USA, the majority of schools and to specific audiences, but do not whom are men. This leaves a similar proportion have the capacity to address the needs of the of women who are the de facto sole heads of population. In Ecatzingo, a town in the first ring families. The men's monthly remittance is one of of risk, there is only one civil protection agent, the principal sources of income and therefore of which is obviously unable to develop a food security for these women and their families. preparedness strategy in a responsible way. The Living in other communities are Nahuatl, picture is similar in the neighbouring Otomi, Zapotec, Mazahua, and Mixtec communities. indigenous people, who, like other ethnic The lack of CSOs concerned with the minorities, are marginalised and have little access problem of the volcano is well known. Those to basic services like health care and education, that do exist are more interested in doing which are generally concentrated in the main research — for example UNAM, which has towns. The situation in Tlamanalco provides one carried out geo-dynamic studies to determine such example: there are nine districts, but only probable scenarios for volcanic activity. two of them are served by doctors, even then with However, there are practically no organisations a ratio of one doctor per 20,000 inhabitants. This developing strategies for prevention and seriously restricts the medical attention given in preparedness. This is possibly due to the fact the frequent cases of respiratory illnesses, that the state has developed policies exclusively chickenpox, measles, and intestinal infections, through SINAPROC. Whatever the reason, this which are among the principal causes of death. lack of organisations has repercussions on the In terms of infrastructure and services, at least communities, reducing the probability that they in the case of Tlamanalco and to some extent in will receive help in a crisis.

40 Assessment of vulnerability

Chiapas: politics and low-intensity war especially in the wake of the critical judgements The prolonged suspension of dialogue between of the Inter-American Human Rights the federal government of Mexico and the Commission and the UN Committee for the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) has Elimination of Racial Discrimination. seriously jeopardised the peace process. In The involvement of Mexican civil society in December 1996, the government rejected a the peace process has been fundamental to its legislative proposal drawn up by the commission progress to date, with an Encuentro National par created to assist with the peace process, that the la Paz (National Assembly for Peace) having San Andres accords on Indigenous Rights and involved 91 organisations in 19 states. The Culture should be implemented. The influence that international economic interests government insists that its own alternative could have on developments in the Chiapas proposal is consistent with the peace accords, conflict underlines the importance of the although many observers disagree and accuse international community making an active and the government of breaking the accords and far-reaching commitment to the search for a fair deliberately undermining the peace process. and lasting peace. The Peace Conciliation Commission Various factors related to the conflict are (COCOPA) insists that its proposal, which was having an influence on the levels of risks and presented to the parties as an ultimatum after vulnerability. Among these are militarisation, months of talks, should be upheld. However, in food insecurity, poor health, and forced March 1997, COCOPA declared ambiguously migration. that 'the text could be improved' and declined to Militarisation: In the last three years the present it to Congress without the support of the Executive. The EZLN continues to demand military presence in Chiapas has increased from certain minimum conditions for the peace talks 5,000 soldiers to 75,000, with negative to resume and is reluctant to negotiate new terms consequences for the economic, social, political, while the existing accords remain incomplete. and environmental life of the local communities. Meanwhile, a new wave of violence in Chiapas • An artificial economy prevails, due to the has once again drawn public attention to the (unsustainable) demand for services, which stagnant peace process and the increasing women are largely expected to meet. This is instability of the state. In the northern zone, putting great pressure on local resources and which is under siege, paramilitary groups have aggravating the socio-environmental crisis, imposed a repressive regime on some areas, principally in terms of food and firewood. The resulting in confrontations, murders, robberies, demand for services like laundry, fetching and displacement of people from their homes. A wood and water, and the preparation of number of events, such as land disputes, have tortillas and other food has increased women's served as major flash-points for confrontations workload and diminished their capacity to and for the arrest and torture of innocent attend to the needs of their own families. people. The impunity enjoyed by the security forces and the paramilitary groups, and the • The high level of prostitution is a response to discriminatory treatment that is meted out to the military presence and the economic indigenous people who do not support the impact of the conflict on the population. ruling party are all evidence of grave Women have been forced to offer sexual deficiencies in the administration of justice. services for money, and parents have obliged their daughters to prostitute themselves to An increased military presence in Chiapas and create a source of income. This surge in other states where there has been conflict, prostitution is also linked to the lack of viable including parts of Mexico City, has reinforced opportunities for women to earn money, the fear that the government is leaning towards a which is in itself a consequence of military rather than a political solution, and is inadequacies in the aid systems, including employing a strategy of low-intensity war. In a social and productive projects. situation of such great tension, with little hope of progress in the negotiations and with troops • The feeble economies of these communities attacking and even killing communities who have been strongly affected by the military sympathise with the EZLN, the ceasefire seems presence. Animal grazing has been curtailed increasingly fragile. The continuation of fighting for reasons of security, and wool production, may also tarnish the government's credibility which represents an important source of both within Mexico and internationally, household income, has declined.

41 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

• Responsibility for looking after the home, This is a problem that has only just begun to supporting the family economically, and appear on the agenda of local organisations. keeping the community together is falling Hence there is no expertise in the area, and more and more to women, given that the men follow-up in conflict situations has not been have either had to emigrate or must meet systematic, making it difficult to obtain detailed military obligations to their communities. In information on the communities affected. The some areas, for example Los Altos (which most significant migrations are occurring in the comprises 22 municipalities and 2,000 northern zone towards the centre of the region communities), the burden of family and and Tuxtla Gutierrez (the state capital), and community responsibilities has fallen to from the border area to neighbouring zones. women and girls. Women have become the de Recently displacement has been occurring with facto heads of their households, and their great frequency, apparently as part of a wider work has become the principal source of military strategy; some 20,000 people are directly family income. This area is also affected by affected. Summary displacements take place drought, which intensifies the already high without people being given the chance to gadier degree of vulnerability of these families. together the bare necessities for subsistence. Typically, the evictions are associated with rape, • Health standards, especially in the zones the burning down of houses, and the destruction where most fighting has taken place, have of crops. In one incident witnessed by us in the seriously deteriorated. Psychosomatic course of the mapping exercise, the community illnesses are now frequent, especially in did not have time to gather together even basic women, who are under great pressure, face belongings or food for the children. Families were harassment and abuse, and have to bear the left on the streets, with only their dogs and their emotional burden of knowing that they and resolve to return to reclaim their land once die their families are in constant danger. BOM (the Joint Operations Brigade) had withdrawn. • The presence of soldiers in the community has resulted in intimidation, fear, and Displaced and returning families are highly psychological pain. It prevents women from vulnerable. Having lost their homes and often going freely about their work and their daily having to relocate in a place where they are not business, and restricts their access to services. able to do their normal work, they have no It has also caused an increase in alcoholism resources with which to re-start their lives. They and drug addiction, especially among young need housing materials, tools, cooking utensils, people. The military cynically use this as a medicines, food, and seeds. There is an urgent pretext for their presence, claiming that they need for local organisations to be helped to are needed to ensure 'the rule of law'. develop an assistance strategy. • The cutting down of trees in conservation Food insecurity: Food insecurity currently areas is a consequence of the militarisation, threatens about 1.5 million people in Chiapas. the effects of which cannot be measured in the The problem is becoming increasingly acute short term but will certainly have a great because of the conflict, and also because of impact in the future. drought and marked environmental degra- dation. Food insecurity is caused by a • Production has been drastically reduced. combination of factors. Vegetable plots, for example, have had to be abandoned because of continuous alarms. • Land insecurity and lack of access to land. • The effects of a 'militarised culture' extend • Restricted food supplies, because of the strong military presence and the actions of beyond the present day and will affect future paramilitary groups. The troops' demand for generations. food is causing food supplies to run out and Forced migration: Forced migration is an impor- shortages of basic products in Chiapas. tant risk factor in conflicts. It involves individuals • Lack of income for rural families. and communities being uprooted and displaced, as well as people returning to their former homes. • Moderate to severe droughts which are It is estimated that more than 5,000 families in occurring frequently in the state, especially in Chiapas are currently undergoing some form of the highlands and in the Sierra of Motozintla. forced displacement, the majority as a result of Drought is ultimately one of the most critical inter-community conflicts (provoked by para- factors in food insecurity, along with militaries) and land disputes. deteriorating quality of soiL

42 Assessment of vulnerability

• Restrictions on the freedom of movement of problems, skin diseases, and psychosomatic women, as a result of insecurity and violence problems. There has also been a substantial against them, which affect the economy and increase in overall levels of social and family the food security of the family. For example, violence, and of sexual violence towards female shepherds have stopped taking their children and women since the militarisation and lambs and goats to graze in the fields. the intensification of the economic crisis. The rise in prostitution has resulted in an increase in • The same situation limits women's access to sexually transmitted diseases and HIV/AIDS. markets, crops, water and firewood, making Harassment, sexual abuse, and violence against daily subsistence more difficult, especially women and children are also causing since 90 per cent of homes use wood or psychological problems, which are emerging in charcoal for cooking. The troops get their the form of widespread depressive and water supplies from the rivers where women psychosomatic illnesses in Chiapas, especially in collect their water and wash clothes. women and girls. • The soldiers take, sometimes by force, the food The government gives priority to family grown in the allotments and plots belonging to planning in its medical services for women women, they steal their livestock and eggs as (through distribution of contraceptives, but well as maize from the fields, and even raid above all through sterilisation), which some their belongings, including household utensils. NGOs think is a strategy for controlling Food security is even more threatened in the population growth in Chiapas. Women who zones where there is drought. seek help for their daughters find themselves on the receiving end of family-planning • There are high levels of female malnutrition. campaigns, because staff in medical centres are Social services such as school breakfasts and obliged to promote this service to them. milk have been withdrawn in some regions, Very little medical attention is available to making the nutritional situation even worse women in other respects. There is a general lack for girls. of confidence in doctors and systems of health Faced with the problem of food insecurity, care, above all because the model of medical communities are very vulnerable. Solutions attention is culturally offensive to the mostly require a combination of emergency and indigenous population, particularly women, development programmes, and should be who are largely monolingual and who find the focused on areas where the stability of the doctors' approach and methods both demeaning population would ensure some success. and inappropriate. For most indigenous people, the only alternatives are the few health Health: Official statistics are unreliable, and promoters and traditional midwives in their tend to under-estimate the scale of the problem. communities. Compounded by the restrictions Some of the following information is therefore on their freedom of movement, these conditions based on the observations of health workers who suggest that the great majority living in rural were interviewed. Chiapas lack access to health care. The average rate of infant mortality in the indigenous population is between 55 and 65 deaths per 1,000 live births. Chiapas has the Guatemala highest level of maternal mortality in Mexico: 9 Guatemala suffered 30 years of armed conflict, per 1,000 inhabitants, according to official and the peace accords which ended it were statistics. One study carried out in the signed only in December 1996. The last two municipality of Chenalho, in Los Altos, placed decades, in particular, were very violent. maternal mortality among the two principal Expressions of discontent with the political causes of death of women over a five-year period regime and social conditions were brutally (1988-1993), along with diarrhoea and various repressed, paving the way for guerrilla intestinal infections. The same study found that of movements from the early 1960s and the the 117 recorded female deaths between 10 and counter-insurgency programmes of successive 49 years, 20 were direcdy related to maternity. military governments. From the mid-1970s, Anaemia, malnutrition, and complications partly because of the impact of the earthquake of related to pregnancy and childbirth represent 1976, there was once again a strong surge of the three principal problems in women's health. rebellion, this time also in urban areas, along Others include parasites, diarrhoea, respiratory with a strengthening of popular movements and

43 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities an increasing presence and degree of firm and lasting peace. This marked a new era organisation in other sectors of civil society. In for the Guatemalan people, as the country response to this, from 1978 to 1982, one of the emerged from disaster and entered a period of most repressive regimes in the history of reconstruction. Guatemala came into power. This regime The reconstruction began by ensuring that isolated the country from the international displaced communities were re-integrated into community at the height of the economic crisis society, and among them 'the returned'. The affecting Guatemala and the other Latin process of return has, however, been long and American nations. In the midst of an electoral slow. To date there are 34 returned fraud in 1982, institutional crisis, struggles communities, with more than 20 established in within the army, and increasingly severe the former conflict areas, mainly in the economic decline, Guatemala suffered several Department of Quiche. The return process has coups d'etat. For four years, de facto military encountered problems of access to land and regimes were installed, espousing the new resources; but, even with these difficulties to military creed of'Security and Development' in face, communities are determined to the context of the army's counter-insurgency reintegrate. They have the support of various strategies: the result was that up to 70,000 people programmes and institutions to help them were murdered or 'disappeared'; more than 500 achieve this, in line with the conditions set out in villages were totally destroyed; hundreds of the peace accords. In addition, on returning to thousands of people were displaced, and more the country, they have received a level of than 10,000 sought refuge in other countries; assistance from UNHCR (material, technical, 60,000 people were relocated to 'model villages' and financial) which has put them in a better (strategic hamlets), and at least 500,000 had to position than the rest of the population who live within 'development areas'. All this was stayed in Guatemala and bore the brunt of the accompanied by economic destruction and mass cruelty and war. This disparity is in some cases impoverishment, especially in the countryside: causing difficulties between communities. the worst catastrophe that the country has ever While in exile in Mexico, the refugees suffered. developed many skills and capacities and Although after 1986 an 'opening up to received a basic education. The women became democracy' was announced — a project designed organised, enrolled in literacy programmes, by the army that allowed civil governments to be and managed various projects and other established through free elections ^=~ the activities. It has proved hard for them to corruption that characterised these elections maintain these levels of leadership on returning caused a new political crisis. This culminated in to Guatemala. In many cases, their physical the coup of May 1993, effected by the President of return has meant a return to their traditional the Republic himself, and a new President was roles, and their organisations and political nominated by the Congress. The year 1994 was activities have fallen by the wayside. marked by political struggle between state In this phase of rehabilitation and powers, and elections for a new Congress were reconstruction, the communities who were held. Barely 15 per cent of voters participated in displaced are of primary importance, among them, demonstrating an enormous loss of them groups who have returned, demobilised, confidence in the political system in Guatemala at been displaced internally, or repatriated, as they that time. In short, the combination of increased have an important role to play in rebuilding the political and economic deterioration during the social fabric of the country. These relocated first half of the 1980s and continuing armed communities are principally located in the conflict within the country exposed Guatemala— western highlands, the north, central Peten, and which already had high levels of poverty, the south-coast regions. About half of them live marginalisation, and social polarisation, a lack of in Quiche. These zones have been identified as basic services, and an obsolete and inefficient being at very high risk, because of both the threat institutional system — to unprecedented stresses. of natural disasters (seismic and volcanic activity, As a result of the unsustainable situation in floods, landslides, and droughts) and human the country and external political and economic factors, which are equally important. These pressure, the peace accords were signed in areas have also suffered great environmental December 1996. The major challenge now was deterioration, with the highest levels of to ensure that these accords were observed deforestation in the country, impoverished soil within a framework of democracy to ensure a with alarming levels of deterioration of its

44 Assessment of vulnerability capacity for production, and pollution of water years — not to mention the 37 per cent of sources by agro-chemicals. Unfortunately, children who do not attend school. Only 60 per female participation in the negotiations for the cent of the population have access to clean return was not very high, and this in part drinking water. The consequences of the lack of explains why the relocation sites are sometimes health services, drinking water, and food are distant from sources of water or urban centres. seen in the high rate of infant mortality. Of the Nor has it been easy for the communities to total deaths registered in the country, more than continue with their productive activities, since 42 per cent are of children under the age of five. there are no commercial outlets or local markets, Poverty has significantly increased and is and they cannot obtain raw materials. For growing at 5.3 per cent each year. In 1990, 63 example, many of the former refugees know how per cent of households were living in poverty to sew and how to make hammocks, but there is and 32 per cent in a state of extreme poverty. It nowhere to buy thread, and no one to buy their is calculated that current figures have increased products in any case. A return to basic to 80 per cent and 55 per cent respectively, with subsistence farming is all they can rely on. All the greatest levels of poverty concentrated in the these geophysical, social, and economic factors central highlands. Urban poverty has also place these communities at high risk. increased, and it is estimated that in the If the overall socio-economic conditions metropolitan area there are more than 800,000 prevailing in Guatemala are difficult, they are people living in more than 240 precarious worse still among the displaced and relocated settlements. The proportion of the population communities in the high-risk zones. Life that is economically active is the highest it has expectancy is the lowest in Central America, at been for 10 years: of these, 55 per cent work in 63 years; the average rate of adult illiteracy is at agriculture, 14 per cent in industry, 17 per cent least 43 per cent, but in rural areas it is in the service sector, and 14 per cent in the approaching almost 72 per cent and in some business sector. However, agriculture constitutes places it is over 80 per cent. Illiteracy among 25 per cent of national production, which women is the highest in Latin America. The indicates that most farmers practise subsistence proportion of children aged between 7 and 14 farming: 2.2 per cent of Guatemala's years who attend school is 63 per cent, but fewer landowners own 65 per cent of the country's than half of these manage to complete one or fertile farm-land. more levels of primary education, only nine per Population growth is one of the highest in cent obtain a secondary level education, and Latin America, at 2.9 per cent p.a. The fertility hardly two per cent reach university level. rate is 5.9 children per woman of child-bearing Only 3.3 per cent of the Guatemalan GNP is age. Practically half of the population of spent on health care, resulting in a situation Guatemala is aged less than 15, and the average where 46 per cent of the population has no access age is 22 years. Almost 62 per cent of Guatemala's to any kind of medical attention. The health population live in rural areas, which makes it the system covers only 25 per cent of the population, country with the smallest urban population in the social security institute a further 15 per cent, Latin America. At the same time, 31 per cent of and the private sector 14 per cent. The ratio of the population lives in the capital city and half in hospital beds per person is 1/800, and half of the the department of Guatemala (the highest beds in public hospitals and four out of five beds concentration in Latin America). in private hospitals are in the metropolitan area. A significant characteristic of Guatemala is These are the official figures: other sources the fact that at least half of the population is indicate that only one in three Guatemalans has Mayan, from some 21 distinct ethno-linguistic access to health services, given the calamitous groups. Once again, poverty has caused a great state of public facilities. One study showed that deterioration in their living conditions, and 80 more than one-third of users of official health per cent of those living in poverty are services in rural areas had to travel 12km on indigenous people. In some regions, the average to reach the nearest facility (OPS/PAHO, population is mainly Mayan, for example in 1996). This is more difficult for women, Quiche, Huehuetenango, and Las Verapaces considering that their mobility is always more (all high-risk zones). In these regions there is restricted by their responsibility for looking after only one doctor for every 10,000 inhabitants, the household and children. and the illiteracy rate is over 80 per cent. There Levels of malnutrition are very high, for is also a total absence of services like telephones, example in schoolchildren aged between 6 and 9 electricity, and safe drinking water.

45 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

The indigenous populations living in the Table 14: Vulnerability among identified risk zones, which coincide with the Guatemalan women places where the majority of the displaced communities have resettled, are extremely Indicator Value vulnerable — the result of a long history of discrimination, exploitation, marginalisation, Widows 9.2% of the female population and exclusion. However, they have survived and (almost half a million) held on to their identity in these conditions because of the quasi-democratic nature of their Households headed 17% of households by women socio-religious structures and high levels of (under-recorded) coherence in their communities, including a Illiteracy 48% of women tradition of self-government and service to the (women over 15) (national average) community. 60% of rural women In Guatemala one of the most notable Principal causes of 1. Intestinal infections (18.4%) elements of female vulnerability is widowhood, female mortality 2. Respiratory infections (17.5%) largely due to the 30 years of conflict. One in ten (all ages) 3. Perinatal causes (15.3%) women in the country is a widow, almost half a 4. Nutritional deficiencies (6.5%) million women. Today it is officially estimated that more than 17 per cent of Guatemalan Maternal mortality 22 per 10,000 live births It is estimated that among households are headed by women, although it is indigenous women maternal unofficially estimated that the true figure is mortality is 50% greater much higher. In terms of health, in addition to acute Maternal malnutrition 33% (mothers aged between respiratory infections, illnesses caused by 15 and 49) parasites, diarrhoea, and skin diseases which affect the whole of the population, Guatemalan Anaemia 6 out of 10 nursing women women suffer alarming levels of anaemia, suffer from nutritional anaemia malnutrition, and serious complications during pregnancy. Most nursing women suffer from Sources: FLACSO, 1997; OPS/PAHO, 1993 and 1996; nutritional anaemia, and maternal mortality is INE, 1995 conservatively estimated at 22 per 10,000 live births. In fact, nutritional deficiencies constitute The high-risk areas identified by the mapping the fourth-highest cause of female mortality. are also zones of high vulnerability, particularly Although no official statistics were obtainable, it because most of the marginalised population is is generally agreed that the situation is even concentrated there. These are also areas where worse among rural and indigenous women. maternal malnutrition is significantly higher than the national average (see Table 15).

Table 15: Vulnerability among women in Guatemala (by region)

Indicator Capital Central South-west North-west, Regional North-east, average and Peten

Maternal 7.4 14.1 14.5 18.2 15.2 13.2 mortality (per 10,000 live births)

Maternal 21% 27.8% 42.8% 43% 41% 35.1% malnutrition

Sources: INE, 1995 and OPS, 1993

46 Assessment, of vulnerability

High levels of illiteracy, especially where there centres), combined with maternal malnutrition. are marked differences between the sexes, The fertility rate is high, at more than five restrict the access of women to resources. This children per woman, and female contraceptive helps to explain why, in an emergency situation, use is low at 50 per cent. they remain at the margins when assistance is offered. Given the large distances between rural Honduras communities and health centres, their prospects are very poor. Honduras comes after Nicaragua in the UNDP Human Development Index, occupying 114lh position, even though many of its social El Salvador indicators have moderately improved. The El Salvador, with a population of 6 million living GNP per capita is approaching US$600 a year, in 21,000 km2 (an area roughly the size of Wales), which is the equivalent of the GNP recorded in is the most densely populated country in the the 1970s. Although just over half of the 6.5m region, with 270 inhabitants per km-' and one- population live in rural areas, only 20 per cent of quarter of the population living in the capital city. GNP comes from agricultural production, Although 55 per cent of the people live in rural suggesting that most rural families live and work areas, barely 9 per cent of the GNP comes from at subsistence level. agricultural production. In a context of rural Marginalisation in Honduras does not run deprivation, along with structural adjustment solely along socio-economic, urban/rural, or measures that aim to strengthen the service sector gender lines. There are also great geographical (business, banks, and tourism) and industry, the inequalities, meaning that almost all the rural population survive through subsistence communities in certain departments or regions farming and monthly remittances from relatives are socially excluded; and the most marginalised in the USA. The aggregate income from these areas are also those at greatest risk of natural remittances, together with the cancellation of the disasters. The levels of poverty in Honduras are debt to the USA (US$464m), has allowed the similar to those in other countries in the region, country to create the economic reserves necessary with 75 per cent of households classified as being to counter the effects of recession and inflation, on the poverty line, which corresponds to 64 per and explains El Salvador's economic 'stability' in cent of urban households and 87 per cent of the post-war period. households in rural areas. However, in high-risk Levels of poverty are high: 75 per cent of the areas such as western and southern Honduras, population is classified as poor, with extreme nine households in ten are on the poverty line, poverty at 52 per cent. The distribution of poverty according to the Department of Social Planning. reflects the pattern of the war, with the former They are also the areas with the highest levels of conflict zones showing the greatest concentration. illiteracy, way above the national level of 32 per Poverty is particularly high in the rural areas, with cent, reaching 46 per cent in western Honduras 36 per cent ofcampesino farmers living in extreme and 37 per cent in the south. Living conditions poverty. In 1990, half of the 0.5m people are similarly worse than average in these two dependent on the informal urban economy were areas. The levels of overcrowding, lack of access women, of whom 70 per cent were earning just to drinking water, and lack of basic sanitation are US$2 per day. Of the households living in 18 per cent, 53 per cent, and 56 per cent higher extreme poverty, 36 per cent were headed by respectively than the national average. The women and 52 per cent of such households were national maternal death rate is 220 per 100,000 headed by an illiterate adult. In 1992, the adult live births, and is likely to be higher still in these illiteracy rate was 23 per cent and was five times as two areas of Honduras. Almost half of those living high in the rural areas as in the towns. in the rural areas have no access to health care. The principal causes of death from disease are intestinal infections, respiratory illnesses, and sickness caused by parasites. The infant Nicaragua mortality rate is 57.4 per 1,000 live births, Time and again Nicaragua has borne the brunt of though this rises to 73 in the areas affected by the natural disasters that have occurred in the the war. The maternal mortality rate is one of region over the last two decades. The Pacific the highest in the continent. The principal region is a very high-risk area, because of the high causes are haemorrhages and septicaemia (only probability of a combination of multiple threats 53 per cent of births take place in health occurring, including drought. The Atlantic

47 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities region is also at high risk, principally because of health centres, and meal centres for children its level of marginalisation, and the high (comedores infantiles). The reduction in the health probability of hurricanes and floods occurring. budget has meant fewer health services and a Nicaragua has experienced the fastest rate of rapid deterioration in the quality of those that social and economic deterioration of all the remain, with the resulting consequences for Latin American countries in the last decade, and basic health standards (Agurto 1997). is now the second poorest in the hemisphere th after Haiti. It fell to 117 position in the UNDP Table 16: Vulnerability among 1996 Human Development Index, and its GNP Nicaraguan women per capita (US$390) is the equivalent of that of the 1950s — in other words, it has fallen back by 50 years. While in the 1985 socio-demographic Indicators Value survey 64 per cent of households were below the poverty line, the 1993 figure had risen to 75 per Widows 8% of all women (183,683 women) cent, with those living in extreme poverty rising from 27 per cent to 40 per cent of the Households headed 28% of households population. Some 60 per cent of urban by women households and 85 per cent of rural households are now classified as poor. Illiteracy (age 10+) 24% Nicaragua's cities are also growing at the fastest rate in Latin America, with 66 per cent of Causes of female 1. Accidents the population now living in urban areas. Fifty mortality (all ages)* 2. Circulatory illnesses per cent of GNP comes from service industries, 3. Perinatal Causes 20 per cent from manufacturing, and 30 per 4. Tumours cent from agricultural production. However, Causes of illness in 1. Circulatory illnesses unemployment stands at 21 per cent, and women 2. Perinatal causes under-employment at 53 per cent. The decline 3. Tumours (26% affecting the in purchasing power even for those with salaries reproductive organs) has been dramatic: a salary worth 100 units in 1980 is now equivalent to a salary of 14 units. Maternal mortality 6.8% per 10,000 live births The minimum wage covers less than one-third of staple goods (almost exclusively food). Source: FLACSO, 1997 Despite the reduction of illiteracy to 13 per * not necessarily the primary causes of death cent during the period of revolutionary Sandinista rule in the 1980s, primary-school drop-out rates and the disuse of literacy skills Nicaraguan women have a strong presence in have pushed national illiteracy levels back to 29 the informal economic sector, and it is not per cent or more. (The average rate in the unusual for it to be the woman who finances the Pacific region stands at 13 per cent, because of purchase of seed for the annual harvest with greater access to services, but the figure for the money obtained from selling food, clothes, Atlantic coastal region is approaching 33 per fruit, etc. This is because 43 per cent of rural cent.) However, Nicaragua is the only country in women work principally in the business and the region where women's levels of literacy and service sectors, compared with 17 per cent of average schooling are equal to or even greater men. At the same time, 45 per cent of rural than those of men. This can be attributed to women work in agriculture, producing mainly more than a decade of war, and also to the sesame seed, potatoes, coffee, sugar cane, and seasonal or permanent migration of men in vegetables, raising livestock and farming search of work, factors which also explain the poultry; as many as three-quarters of rural high proportion of households headed by women contribute to the raising of small women which, at 30 per cent nationwide, is the livestock (FIDEG 1996). highest in the region. The significant participation of women in the The stabilisation and structural adjustment rural economy points to the importance of measures have had a negative impact on all involving them to a similar degree in emergency Nicaraguans, in that public-spending cuts have programmes. Above all they need access to particularly slashed services which provided for resources to make up for losses suffered in women's needs - services such as nurseries, rural production, especially because their involvement

48 Assessment of vulnerability in organisations is limited (see Table 17). On (Leon and Chinandega), with 99 per cent of the average only one in four women is involved in population classified as poor. This same area social organisations; of these, 58 per cent belong bore the brunt of the crisis in the agricultural to savings and credit co-operatives. In the event export sector, with the result that a significant of an emergency it would be necessary to identify proportion of people who were formerly agri- viable channels for resources so that they benefit cultural wage-labourers now exists without any women and their families. chance of employment and no land for subsistence. The rest of the rural population are Table 17: Involvement of women in social campesino farmers, living on arid land with little organisations in Nicaragua agricultural potential. According to a 1997 UNICEF survey, the drought resulted in women resorting to cooking roots, banana skins, Involvement of women % of total % in and guasimo seeds, all of which caused food in social organisations members positions of poisoning, particularly among children. The in Nicaragua leadership greatest effects of natural disasters, such as the eruption of the Cerro Negro volcano, the 1992 Rural organisations 15.5% No data tidal wave, and the recent drought, have also Farming co-operatives 14.3% 8.9% been concentrated in this same area. The region's infant-mortality rate is lower Savings and credit co-ops 57.8% 35.9% than the national average, principally because it is better served by health centres (60 per cent of Industrial/artisanal co-ops 32.8% 26.1% Nicaragua's health services are concentrated in Managua and the departmental capitals of this Fishing co-ops 9.2% 8.5% region). By contrast, the infant-mortality rate for the Atlantic Coast is 34 per cent higher than Source: FIDEG 1996 the national average, not only because of the level of poverty but also because of extremely limited access to health care. Childhood Women on the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua, a malnutrition is high (29 per cent) for Nicaragua high-risk zone, experience greater levels of as a whole, though far higher still among poor vulnerability than those on the Pacific Coast, for and extremely poor households. Significantly, a various reasons. Here they have even less 1991 survey found that 71 per cent of salaried involvement in community organisations, households had a calorie-deficient diet, and 55 although the figure varies according to cultural per cent ate less protein than necessary (Agurto and ethnic groups. In most cases, it is the men 1997). Despite the correlation between women- who manage the resources for the community, headed households and (extreme) poverty, food through organisations like communal com- deficiencies were higher overall in households missions (comisiones comunales). This has headed by men. This suggests that women are important implications for emergency situations, better than men at managing and distributing because of the central role that such groups play: household resources, even when fewer when disasters strike, the needs of women are resources are available. often not identified by the commissions, and it is In terms of housing, well over one-third of through them that resources are channelled. An households on the Pacific Coast and almost half exceptionally high proportion of households is of those on the Atlantic Coast are over-crowded; headed by women: almost half of all households many have earth floors and lack clean drinking in Bonanza (a mining zone), for instance. In water or basic sanitation. Such households are addition to these factors, the geographical highly vulnerable to the threat of flooding and marginalisation of the Atlantic Coast makes hurricanes, to which they are greatly exposed. emergency response, prevention, and mitigation The combined impacts of the Cerro Negro work more difficult. eruption and the recent drought on the The Pacific region of Nicaragua enjoys the northern Pacific Coast merit special attention lion's share of the country's infrastructure and here, partly because of the effects on women and services. It is also the most densely populated girls. The very high levels of maternal and infant area of the country. However, the region also malnutrition in the area, added to food registers the greatest levels of rural poverty in shortages caused by the drought, make the country, principally in the western area pregnant or nursing women highly vulnerable.

49 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

Many premature births are already caused by them to buy maize, not only eliminating the the mother's poor nutritional status, and health alternative food sources so important for workers fear that this situation will become even safeguarding the food security of the family, but more acute in the coming months, because of also reducing the intake of calories and protein increasing food shortages. The effects of the which these provide (eggs, milk, chicken), thus drought go beyond basic grain production, intensifying the impact of this disaster and their extending to vegetable produce and affecting vulnerability to subsequent catastrophes. Water the raising of small livestock, which are the main has also become scarce in the area, with wells of productive activities involving women. Diseases and the burning of grazing land have killed the up to 190m in depth now dry or yielding only weeds, insects, worms, and other organisms on very contaminated and dirty water. Families are which hens and pigs feed, causing sickness and rationing the use of water to levels that are starvation in some animals. Where the animals inadequate to maintain decent standards of have survived, women have been forced to sell hygiene as well as for drinking and cooking.

50 4 Assessment of local capacity

It is important, but it can be difficult, to assess Since 1996, regional initiatives to improve existing capacity to respond to an emergency: gender-related responses to emergencies have firstly because there may not be access to been promoted under the co-ordination of information about the nature of the situation; CEPREDENAC, whose strategic plan includes and secondly because of the large number of ensuring a focus on gender in all its work, with factors to be taken into account. the aim of promoting women's participation in This section is divided into three parts. The first the prevention and mitigation of disasters. One looks at the institutional framework for managing of the first tasks of its Gender Co-ordination Unit disasters and tries to identify and assess the was to consult with women throughout the capacity of regional, national, and local actors in region who were involved in disaster-related Mexico and Central America, especially those work, and to establish new mechanisms for institutions established by law for this purpose. mutual learning and for participation. This The second examines some of the relevant civil- consultation process led to the First Constructive society organisations. The third covers a selection Central American Meeting on 'Gender and of actors and initiatives which contribute to Disaster Culture', held in November 1996. This building capacity to respond to emergencies in produced the following action plan for 1997: the region, or which may start to include this in the • To carry out a participative investigation into future. We have not included here any details gender, in order to examine the involvement about local NGOs, except where these have a of Central American women in disaster- legally defined function, since this information is related work. necessarily somewhat ephemeral and incomplete. • To incorporate a gender focus in the activities developed by national and regional actors in The institutional framework disasters. • To design and reproduce material for public The only regional institution to have made dissemination on gender and disasters, important contributions to providing specifically in relation to the socio-cultural management support for the reduction of natural conditions in each country. disasters in Central America is CEPREDENAC. It supports its members by improving their capacity • To hold a national workshop on gender and to monitor dangerous natural phenomena, disasters, aimed at training staff from particularly those related to earthquakes, government institutions and NGOs involved volcanoes, and wet-weather systems. It also in disasters; to undertake training activities in focuses on the mapping of threats and risks in the each country; to promote the inclusion of a region. A new emphasis in its recent work has gender focus in disaster training at national been to seek effective links between national and regional levels. processes and local management capacity. • To set up an office for the Regional Gender This is clearly the most important and stable Co-ordination Unit. institution in the region, as much in the policy aspects as in its capacity to build relationships • To hold a second regional meeting on gender with a variety of regional and international and disasters. organisations. Its weaknesses reflect the inability A proposal and budget have been prepared, but of some of the member countries to define their to date funds have not been forthcoming. priorities in the fieldo f disaster reduction, and to However, the regional team still carries out attract appropriate funding; and also the some activities, which have included problems it faces in promoting disaster establishing women's groups focused on the prevention, particularly in the political arena. theme of gender and disasters in all the Central

51 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

American countries, although not in Mexico. request from the municipal-, state, and federal The groups consist mainly of women who authorities successively. This is important, since specialise in disasters or gender and represent in theory each state or municipality should have various civil organisations, but they also include the capacity and resources to respond to any representatives of various ministries in each type of disaster. However, depending on the country. The initiative is unusual: there are few magnitude of the event, there is the possibility if any other countries with a national women's that other larger organisations, including group specifically focused on gender and external ones, will intervene to offer assistance disasters with such broad-based representation. and support, provided that the immediate This is an area that could be much strengthened authorities publicly declare an emergency and by creative international co-operation. formally request their intervention. At the national level the work is very varied, This decentralised approach is a sensitive and though there is a degree of homogeneity in the controversial issue, and it can be a matter of life work related to the development of systems for and death for those at risk. This is because local the prevention and management of disasters. politicians tend to refrain from declaring Two important issues emerge here. The first is emergencies, in order to avoid the intervention the lack of organisations with a sufficiently of the federal bodies and the Armed Forces, broad vision of the reduction of risks and the which do not have a good record in this area. consequences of disasters. The second is the In practice, the system has the capacity for strong presence and dominance of the Armed monitoring and planning for emergencies (Civil Forces in the organisations that manage Protection Programme 1995-2000) and the disasters (with the exception of Costa Rica). material resources to ensure an appropriate We offer a brief summary of the situation in response, provided that the emergency is not on each country, but give a more detailed account a huge scale. However, the major problem is of the situation in Mexico, given the complex ensuring the effectiveness of this capacity, given policy framework for disaster management. the lack of engagement with the populations at risk. Of course, not all municipal and state committees are active, and in some areas the Mexico population rarely takes part in the civil Following the devastating earthquakes of 19 protection plans. In combination with the and 20 September 1985 in Mexico City, the political polarisation, such factors are affecting President created the National Commission for the programme. Reconstruction. The next year, the National Further, the operational plans do not contain a System for Civil Protection (SINAPROC) was focus on gender, to judge from the contingency established by presidential decree. The system plans for eruptions of Popocatepetl and from the consists of a programme (prevention, assistance, response to Hurricane Pauline in 1997. Imple- and protection), advice (consultative organis- mentation is in the hands of SINAPROC, state ations) and a body of volunteers at three levels of governments, presidents and municipal delegates, government (federal, state, and municipal). The public representatives, and all the technical and structure integrates staff from the public government bodies. Few women are included in administration; from the co-ordinating bodies these teams. Nor has the formation of working among the federations; from the states and groups, emergency brigades, and volunteers municipalities; and representatives of social taken into account the need to recruit women and movements which take part in protecting encourage their participation. civilians. These make up the institutional co- The evacuation plans cover the whole ordination in the General Management of Civil population, but without giving priority to Protection in the Government Secretariat pregnant women, old people, and disabled (DGPC). A technical assessment unit exists people. Nor does the management of refuges alongside the National Centre for the and hostels take into account the security of Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED). unaccompanied girls and women, above all to The main work of this body is to attend to and ensure protection from the sexual harassment assist the population in case of disaster. Thus, in that often arises among large concentrated disaster situations the response of the state and populations. To date, no adequate measures federal institutions (including the Armed have been drawn up, such as special Forces), as well as that of national and accommodation for vulnerable women, or the international NGOs, depends upon a formal inclusion of female staff in the protection units.

52 Assessment of local capacity

The products stored in warehouses do not Women's Office, and 10 special guests from the include items for preparing food. The capital, in the hope that their participation in experience with Hurricane Pauline illustrated the departmental organisation and decision this: a week after it struck, the government making would encourage the participation of finally responded to the demands of women and other women and men in society. In particular, organised donations of cooking utensils, a need the workshop took note of the increased that should be predicted in any emergency visibility of and scope for Guatemalan women to situation. The importance of distributing the participate in the reduction of disasters through food via the women was not considered, and it various groups, and urged their inclusion in all had not been recognised that a food-distribution levels of emergency organisations. system controlled by men flies in the face of Among the proposals are capacity-building traditional practice in which the women assume and awareness-raising for women on gender the main role in acquiring and preparing the analysis, in order to encourage the active food. Overall, the operational plans are not participation of women in the prevention of based on a consideration of gender, nor on the disasters and in setting up local emergency affected population's capacity or participation, committees. However, women's participation is but on the central plans designed in Mexico City, seen in quantitative rather than qualitative terms. which are almost totally independent of the Though increasing the numbers of women on communities and their organisations. Essentially, such committees is clearly important, the analysis the situation is no different in Guatemala and does not include an examination of the ways in Nicaragua with regard to their respective which disasters affect women and men government institutions. differently, nor of the particular needs of women in disaster situations, or the application of a Guatemala gender perspective in emergency programmes (for example in distribution systems, the The National Emergency Committee (CONE) provision of water, and public-health measures). was founded in 1969 in the wake of Hurricane Francelia and became a permanent body in 1971. In mid-1994 CONE submitted a draft bill £1 Salvador for the establishment of the National System The National Committee for Emergencies for the Reduction of Disasters (SINRED) (COEN), established in September 1976, is a (prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, leading institution that brings together various rehabilitation, and reconstruction), taking into relevant actors. Opinions differ with respect to account international agreements on the need the role of COEN. Some think that 'there is no for appropriate legislation for disasters. lead organisation in disasters, and COEN SINRED implements its programmes and continues to be essentially a political body which action through the National Commission for the hinders any work undertaken by others, and Reduction of Disasters (CONRED, the new reflects an outmoded view of the issues' designation for CONE), and each ministry is (personal communication from staff of LA RED). looking at forming a Unit for the Reduction of Various attempts have been made to create a Disasters within its structure. The General national system, but none has achieved the Council is the management body of SINRED; it desired results. The Italians, along with the Pan- consists of five ministers, representatives from American Health Organisation (PAHO), have the corporate sector, urban-development advisers played an important role in establishing the (Planning Secretariat), and media advisers. The Inter-institutional Technical Committee approval of the law was a surprise to many civil- (COTIDE) to facilitate the decentralisation of society organisations, because they were not decision-making and to encourage wider consulted, and the regulations are being drawn participation in order to improve disaster up without their involvement. prevention and mitigation capacity. Through the Social Prevention Department, CONRED aims to encourage various social sectors to train up in the prevention of natural Honduras disasters, and is beginning to prioritise the role The System for the Response to and Prevention of of women. Thus, a workshop was held in Disasters (SAPD) was established in March 1972 October 1995 with leading women from eight with the creation of the Permanent Council for departments, representatives of the National National Emergencies (COPEN). It aimed to turn

53 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities the Armed Forces into the axis or reference point The women's organisation could play an for the public, and to extend the state apparatus important part in emergencies at the national (Romano 1996). In December 1990, COPEN was and local levels, not only in preventive work but replaced by the Permanent Commission for also in its own emergency programmes. INIM Contingencies (COPECO). Currently COPECO is is, for example, developing sustainable trying to set up a system of co-ordination and vegetable gardens in response to the drought, support at national, regional (military regions), with techniques that might be more widely departmental, and municipal levels, and to applied, since they are low-cost, simple, and include community emergency committees. economical in their use of water, as well as COPECO's executive secretary is appointed enhancing food security. However, the group is by the President of the country, and the post is well aware of its own need to learn more about currently held by a high-ranking military gender and disasters: its current members tend officer. The state secretariats, the Central Bank, to specialise either in emergencies or in gender, and representatives of some rural associations and there is a need to integrate the two areas, make up COPECO. However, the most both in theory and in practice. important peasant organisation in the country, COCOH, is not invited to participate, while one Costa Rica that is more sympathetic to the government's policies has been asked to join. The National Emergencies Commission (CNE) was established in August 1969 by executive decree. Its predecessor was the Civil Defence, Nicaragua which started work in 1965. The CNE has There has been no overall system for disaster undergone various restructuring processes, and prevention, mitigation, and response in by 1994 it was an autonomous, specialised, and Nicaragua. Rather, ordinary citizens have had well-resourced institution which was accorded a to organise themselves. Successive governments high priority by the government. The CNE has over the last 25 years have created structures since come under the Ministry of Works and and laws that have survived somehow or Transport and is fighting to maintain the quality another, but are not fully used. of its disaster management, despite constraints In operational terms, it is the High on its resources. Command of National Civil Defence (EMNDC) that is the permanent institution in charge of disaster management, through the National Regional overview Committees for Emergencies, which lay down The various institutions in the region share a the policies. Its efforts are concentrated on series of problems. SINAPROC in Mexico and creating municipal committees for prevention, COEN in El Salvador are dependent on their mitigation, and response to disasters, and on governments and operate through the equivalent forming civil-defence brigades. of the Interior Ministry or Home Office. The CNE There is a group of Nicaraguan women in Costa Rica depends on the President of the working on CEPREDENAC's gender and emer- Republic and is attached to the Ministry for Works gency programme, but its proposals have come to and Transport, while COPECO in Honduras, nothing, for lack of funds. It includes women from CONRED in Guatemala, and EMNDC in various organisations, including the Ministry of Nicaragua also depend on the President and on Education, the Nicaraguan Women's Institute the operational wing of the Ministry of Defence. (INIM), and NGOs such as the Augusto Cesar The quality of management and response to Sandino Foundation (FACS) and the Companions emergencies is varied, but corresponds largely of the Americas. Some of the activities include to the twin common denominators of poverty encouraging women's participation in the training and low political priority, which translate into in prevention that is carried out with students, constraints on the human and material teachers, education brigades, rescue teams, and resources for running national emergency odiers. They share the concern that the courses plans. Overall, the official institutions are more organised by EMNDC (with the support of OFDA, concerned with responding to the impact of a the US Office for Disaster Response) to train disaster than with prevention, mitigation, and trainers in the management of disasters and the preparedness. It is difficult to assess the quality assessment of the damage and needs are almost and effectiveness of their responses, but public totally aimed at men. observations are incorporated in Table 18.

54 Assessment of local capacity

Table 18: National capacity for emergency response in the region

Conditions Weaknesses Opportunities

Lack of resources Low prioritisation on the Prevention, mitigation, and political agenda preparedness are included in some development policies

Frequent changes in the Lack of clear regional policies Initial interest in prevention and political arena for prevention, mitigation and mitigation at the decision-making preparation level

Unequal participation of countries Low level of participation of civil Priority for environmental in the regional processes of society in regional decisions management and ordnance surveys prevention, mitigation, and at regional level preparedness

Different and changing threats Intervention not co-ordinated with Interest in raising the social impact and vulnerabilities international assistance of regional projects to reduce disasters

Growing threats and vulnerabilities Little exchange of experiences Institution created specifically for the purpose (CEPREDENAC)

Other widespread perceptions are that generally weak, and is worsened by the lack of emergency responses are generally delayed co-ordination and the reliance on improvised (usually not operational until 48 hours after the plans. All of this further complicates the event); that emergency plans are not widely situation of the affected populations. known and exist only on paper; that the national It is at the local level where projects to reduce emergency committees are closed institutions risks appear to have the most chance of which do not allow civil society to participate, and producing concrete results. This is mainly due to when they do they invite only their political the fact that many such projects are run by sympathisers; that emergency interventions international organisations (although in reflect political interests, and rehabilitation and collaboration with national and local structures) reconstruction programmes are exploited for whose abilities are recognised (such as PAHO, the electoral and propaganda purposes; that Red Cross, and the Organisation of American responses favour groups located in accessible States). However, this tends to obscure the lack of places; and that aid distribution often favours national capacity to work at the local level. friends and acquaintances, rather than reaching Further, local-level capacity is very weak, despite the people most in need. the priority that the international agencies have The formal bodies are weak for several given it, and is totally inadequate to meet the reasons. They lack qualified staff, and do not needs of the many communities living in high- always enjoy the necessary financialan d political risk conditions. support. They tend to take a narrow view of the Let us take the example of Mexico, where problems caused by natural disasters and how to work at the state and municipal levels should reduce them, and to look at these in sectoral or have been a high priority, given the specialised terms, rather than taking a global decentralised SINAPROC model, and the approach. They lack the capacity to identify magnitude of the risks. Around Popocatepetl solutions and priorities in risk reduction, which are more than 200 communities who belong to in turn means that they are unable to formulate various states and municipalities who, according coherent and fundable projects. And finally, few to SINAPROC, have received training in how to of them co-ordinate adequately (or at all) with respond to emergencies. A field visit proved that local institutions in order to respond effectively these local capacities did not exist. Firstly, the to emergency situations. Overall, then, the system to warn of volcanic eruptions is not clear responsive capacity at the national level is to the public: the system of signals (which uses

55 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities the traffic-light colours) to indicate the level of In general, some local-level capacity-building alert is not fully understood by the local is taking place, either via the official government authorities or by the public, and there is institutions or through the intervention of confusion over whether or not the red alert is a specialised international organisations devel- signal to proceed with evacuation. It is unclear oping pilot projects. But this is a very slow what local resources are available to mobilise process in comparison with the rate at which the people, and their supply is in any case highly threats are increasing. Underlying problems dependent on external support. No local such as the lack of human and material mapping has been done, let alone a realistic resources, the poor regional-national-local survey of the actual composition of the links, and the politicisation of disasters are not population and its needs. Instead, calculations readily overcome. Local actions allow for an are based on the last census, which is out of date. understanding of the problems at the grassroots Secondly, the local resources are scarce. In level. The strengthening of local organisations Tlamanalco, for example, there is not even one gives a genuine impetus to self-management ambulance, and the mayor is having problems and is a step towards real operational capacity. finding fuel for the police and to run the Eventually, this could help to increase the municipality. Thirdly, despite SINAPROC's pressure on other actors, particularly in the incompetence, there are no other organisations political arena. that might help to build up local capacities. Thus, although it is important to support In El Salvador, COEN and the Salvadoran local-level initiatives, the wider context should Red Cross have tried to build up capacities at the not be ignored, and neither should the need for municipal level to cope with emergency decentralised planning and for co-ordinated situations, although UNDP claims that only 16 action. This is where policies for prevention and municipalities out of a total of 262 have the not only for preparedness can best be minimum capacity to respond. promoted. The risk of concentrating only on the In Nicaragua, EMNDC, in collaboration with local level is that this could ultimately lead to a public and private institutions, has achieved lack of efficient co-ordination. some success in setting up Municipal Committees for Prevention, Mitigation and Response to Disasters, in training, in organising Disasters and civil society civil-defence brigades (First Aid, Fire Service, Rubble Clearance, Search and Rescue), drawing Formally, disaster management in Mexico and up risk maps, and drafting disaster- Central America appears to be the exclusive management guidelines. However, they have domain of the governments. Few civil-society had some success only in 22 of the 131 organisations, in particular NGOs, are present municipalities in the country, of which 57 have in this area and enjoy recognition for their been declared as 'high priority'. work. Although many organisations work on In Costa Rica, the CNE has prioritised 112 development and/or the environment, they communities situated in approximately 70 seldom include emergency work in their regions, and has organised local emergency programmes. committees in 90 per cent of these. However, One reason for this may be the recent training has been very limited. direction and priorities of international The situation is particularly difficult in assistance; another may be the problem of Guatemala. For instance, the San Roque harmonising these areas of work in such a community in the south of the country complex situation, where many such comprises about 100 families who survive on organisations focus on the struggle against locally grown maize and sesame. However, the poverty and the increase of socio-economic River Ocosito often overflows and floods the conflicts. Whatever the explanation, the reality cultivated fields. The community is unclear is that there is a notable lack of involvement in about the level of risk that the river poses to these areas, an absence that is worrying, given them and their crops, and no organisation has the concentration of highly vulnerable offered even basic training in responding to populations in areas of high risk, and where emergencies. This is not an isolated case. government assistance has often been less than CONRED argues that resource constraints effective. Civil-society organisations perhaps mean that is impossible to meet all the needs of need to adopt a two-pronged strategy for communities at high risk. emergency and development, given their

56 Assessment of local capacity considerable organisational potential and the demonstrated the capacity to focus their knowledge drawn from their experience of lobbying on measures to defuse the prevailing working with grassroots communities. conflict. However, the capacity to respond Certain civil-society actors and initiatives actively to the populations affected by the represent an important body of knowledge that conflicts is limited, especially when it is a could be used in future emergency interventions. question of displaced populations and those It also needs to be recognised that many who have been forcibly evicted, where there are organisations (such as trade unions, social no clear intervention strategies. movements, and NGOs) do not have an institutional mandate to work in emergency Guatemala situations, but nevertheless offer support to members, partners, or affiliates who have There are organisations, such as the National suffered disasters. This has enabled them to Co-ordination Body for Indigenous and Rural 'learn by doing' and makes them potential Women (CONIC), which represent the interests counterparts for emergency work and candidates of the most marginalised social sectors and for training programmes. which have shown some limited capacity to respond to emergencies, especially in areas There are also many international NGOs in where the government body has been the region with a recognised competency in ineffectual. Some niche organisations, such as emergencies and disasters (Catholic Relief the Guatemalan Association for Emergencies Services, Medecins Sans Frontieres, CARE, and (AGE), focus on emergency-related work within Medecins du Monde, among others), but the a particular geographical area, while others, majority work in other aspects of development. such as Friends of the Americas (a programme In situations of crisis, many of them do promoted by the US government through collaborate with the affected populations, if they OFDA), are concerned with improving the are already among their own priority groups. security of schools throughout Central America. However, we would emphasise the need for The long politico-military conflict in national and local NGOs to be involved in co- Guatemala also gave rise to a large number of ordinating various aspects of emergency- organisations and groups that defend human related work. rights. As elsewhere in Latin America, these One critical aspect here is the application of have a high number of female members. Their gender-fair policies in emergencies. Overall, leaders and active members were themselves there is very little knowledge of these matters victims of persecution, disappearance, either in the official emergency bodies, which detention, and torture by the military and death are mainly technico-military teams with limited squads. Women's solidarity-based organisations women's participation, or among NGOs. that have their historical roots in the conflict still However, many NGOs do have some play an important role in responding to the knowledge of gender and development, which material, economic, political, and psycho-social is something on which to build. needs of women, particularly widows and other women who have lost male family members, in Mexico the context of the reconstruction process. Despite Mexico's status as the country at the Organisations such as the Consultative highest risk in the region, with the largest Assembly of Displaced Populations focus on the vulnerable and exposed populations, the weak obligations under the Peace Accords 'to put participation of NGOs in Mexico in this field is special emphasis on the protection of female remarkable by comparison with the rest of the headed households as well as widows and region. However, NGOs do have a proven orphans which have been the most affected'. In lobbying capacity, with networks such as addition, the returnee women's organisations Convergencia (convergence), Seguridad Alimentaria which were initially formed during exile in (Food Security), and Combate contra la Pobreza Mexico, where they helped to promote the (Fight Against Poverty) having the potential to human rights and political, economic, and social mobilise activity around the response to the development of the refugees, have remained hardships suffered by fellow citizens as a result of active in Guatemala, although many women disasters. have succumbed to the pressure on them to In the southern region, particularly in return to their pre-war roles. These are also Chiapas, civil-society organisations have committed to ensuring the recognition and

57 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities fulfilment of the agreements concerning Nicaragua displaced women, and to securing adequate The Augusto Cesar Sandino Foundation economic resources for reconstruction. In many (FACS) has an emergency programme which cases, they have helped to build solidarity has played a key role in the development of its between returnees, former displaced capacity in matters concerning assessments, populations, and those who remained in collection, and management of information, Guatemala throughout the war. (The latter two training for high-risk communities, and groups did not benefit as the refugees did from emergency response. It is arguably the only one international support.) in Nicaragua that is set up to put into practice the concept of developing capacity as part of a El Salvador response to an emergency. FACS has extensive national and international influence in The Centre for Disaster Protection (CEPRODE) combining development, advocacy, and aims to 'design, implement and evaluate emergencies. For this reason, it is involved in co- community protection programmes for the ordinating and handling aid to those affected by population in case of disasters and to conserve disasters such as the 1992 tidal wave and and restore natural resources in areas at high Hurricane Joan in 1988. The current director of risk of natural disasters'. It also produces FACS belongs to the gender and disasters information and scientific studies on natural group, and the organisation is committed to disasters and the environment; and encourages involving women as well as men in the training the protection of natural resources through programme, and being sensitive to the needs of research and joint projects with other widows and single women. institutions. CEPRODE has a strong influence There are numerous other bodies in and is well known in official circles and within Nicaragua working on the Atlantic Coast that civil society, and is linked to the regional either are, or could become involved in, processes in disasters and emergency work emergency work. Similarly, Costa Rica has a through the RED network. Its focus on action- number of organisations with some capacity to research brings it into contact with local undertake emergency work, or which are communities, in a line of work that the German concerned with environmental issues. technical assistance agency GTZ and ECHO of the European Commission are now pursuing. The Lempa Foundation (FUNDALEMPA) is Relevant actors and initiatives in also carrying out key work in the area of disaster the region prevention through a proposal to produce detailed surveys (one of the few organisations in In this section, we offer a small illustrative Central America which has this focus) of the sample of the wide variety of initiatives to reduce Lempa river basin. It is developing an the scale and impact of disasters. information system on the use of water (a critical CEPREDENAC: The Co-ordinating Centre resource in El Salvador) and the problems of for the Prevention of Natural Disasters in flooding. The system relies on systematic Central America (CEPREDENAC) is a relatively monitoring of the disasters caused by floods: young institution (part of SICA, a body that was information that will form part of the established by the various Ministers of Foreign Geographic Information System that is being set Affairs). CEPREDENAC is based in Panama and up. It is also looking for the most appropriate has already achieved regional and international means to communicate this information to the recognition. It seeks to provide regional co- communities at high risk. ordination for national initiatives in the context of natural disasters. It mainly links the monitoring work carried out by similar Honduras institutions with the emergency committees and The Centre for Research and Control of with other important actors such as universities Pollutants (CESCO) aims to control and also and other institutions which play an important reduce pollutants and waste products, and to part in prevention, mitigation, and minimise their environmental effects. This area preparedness. It acts as a broker or channel for of work is critical in connection with disasters funding for specific programmes, though it is caused by human action. not itself operational.

58 Assessment of local capacity

International Decade for the Reduction of The Project for the Reduction of the Natural Disasters (IDRND) 1990-2000: With Vulnerability of the Road Transport System in its headquarters in Costa Rica, the IDRND has Natural Disasters in Central America and encouraged activities aimed at reducing the Andean countries is being conducted in number of disasters in the region. It focuses on collaboration with the Pan-American Institute information and is co-ordinating a project to for Roads, also with financial support from create a Regional Centre for Information on ECHO. It maps risks and local warning systems Disasters (CRID), which will combine the efforts in Central America and is based on the pilot of PAHO/WHO, IFRCS, MSF, and the CNE in developed in Honduras. The Project for the Costa Rica and also CEPREDENAC. Reduction of the Vulnerability of Small Urban Pan-American Health Organisation Centres and the Pan-American Highway to (PAHO/WHO): PAHO is one of the pioneering Natural Disasters in Central America usefully organisations in health-related work on natural integrates work on communication routes, disasters and also provides technical health people living in slums, and commercial activities assistance. It is currently working on a project to with an assessment of the risks. provide university-level training on disaster UNDP: The UNDP supports governments in preparedness in Central America to support the various ways and also provides funds for Central American Commission for Disasters, responses to emergency situations. For instance, and on an Internet project to ensure better a project entitled Training and Strengthening communication among the organisations for the Prevention and Management of Natural involved in risk- management. Disasters in Costa Rica seeks to support the CNE International Federation of Red Cross/Red in strengthening municipal and local Crescent Societies (IFRCS): As part of the Red committees in their struggle against natural Cross movement, the Federation brings together disasters. The Training for the Prevention of all the national Red Cross and Red Crescent Natural Disasters Project in Nicaragua supports Societies worldwide. At an international level, the training of local committees undertaken by the International Committee of the Red Cross EMNDC, while the Project for Support to the (ICRC) is charged with working in situations of National Strategy for Environmental Education armed conflict, and the Federation with in El Salvador links environmental problems responses to natural disasters and development, and natural disasters. although the National Societies do not make this The Network of Social Studies for the distinction. The Federation is currently working Prevention of Natural Disasters in Latin on strengthening the National Societies, training America (LA RED): This is a network of staff, and setting up its own communication institutions and researchers working in the field system, both between the National Societies and of disaster vulnerability from a social within each country. Since 1995, it has been perspective. Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador supporting community-level disaster-prepared- and Guatemala belong to it, and its regional ness work in Guatemala, Nicaragua and headquarters are based in the FLACSO office in Panama, with plans to extend to Costa Rica, El Costa Rica. Salvador, and Honduras. Since 1994, LA RED has been implementing Organisation of American States (OAS): The a programme of research and information OAS has undertaken a lot of disaster-reduction exchange, geared to strengthening the local and work in Mexico and Central America and has regional capacity of organisations that work in experience ranging from local work to region- disaster reduction (partly funded by ECHO). wide initiatives. For example, the Programme This programme also serves to disseminate for the Reduction of Vulnerability in the relevant concepts, and to inform and influence Education Sector to Natural Hazards promotes the policies of the national governments and of the development and implementation of regional and international organisations. While policies, plans, projects, and preparedness for LA RED is not operational, many of its members the reduction of natural disasters, focusing on are organisations that use the information in physical infrastructure. The activities include their work. technical assistance, training, and the transfer of Other initiatives include Medecins Sans technology. Pilot projects began in El Salvador Frontieres (MSF), whose regional office in and Nicaragua and have since 1995 extended to Costa Rica plans to draw up an 'Emergency Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, and Preparedness Plan', and has sought to combine Panama. development and emergency project-

59 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities management skills. The Economic Research Like the UK, the Netherlands has been weak Institute at the University of Costa Rica is in the areas of preparedness and prevention, embarking on a study of the economic but is currently supporting a project to reduce consequences of natural disasters in the region. disasters in Costa Rica, under the UNESCO And finally, Urgent Action International, a framework. This project aims to strengthen the French NGO, offers training in rehabilitation, scientific capacity to integrate knowledge about as well as raising public awareness. It may also natural phenomena in order to produce a map set up a logistics base to store goods and on various scales (from 1/25,000) for planners. equipment to respond to future crises. While Germany has had little involvement in In terms of bilateral support in this field, the Central America (mainly supporting rural most active country appears to be Sweden, development projects or training programmes followed by Denmark, France, the UK, and the and small business development), its FEMID Netherlands. Germany is also starting to (Strengthening of Local Structures in Disaster support work this area. Sweden has been a Mitigation) project does aim to strengthen local driving force in Central America in risk structures by supporting research, training reduction. In 1988, Swedish funds enabled workshops, and small complementary projects CEPREDENAC to set up as a research in disaster reduction. The three-year project organisation, and this support has continued concentrates on a pilot area in each Central since CEPREDENAC re-defined its mission in American country and will eventually move to 1993 as an initiative of SICA (System for Central exchanges between pilot areas to evaluate and American Integration). Since then, the Swedish compare trie strategies and tools being used. Agency for Institutional Development (SIDA) Italy has helped to set up a warning system in has also funded national projects and the the areas threatened by the Cerro Negro, while institutional strengthening of CEPREDENAC. Switzerland supports projects in Nicaragua and Denmark, in collaboration with Guatemala related to the improvement of the CEPREDENAC, is particularly involved in the network to monitor volcanoes and to improve reduction of the risk of flooding in Central early-warning systems for tidal waves. Finally, America, especially with a programme which NORAD of Norway works with CEPREDENAC aims to improve early-warning systems. France on a project to reduce the risk of earthquake has mainly provided one-off support in the area damage in Central America. This project should of information about natural phenomena and result in a regional centre for information on preventive information, for example scientific earthquakes and the strengthening of the projects like the research on volcanoes in scientific and technical work of the various Costa Rica. seismology institutes in their work.

60 5 Progress and needs in disaster management

Prevention and mitigation produced a manual in 1993 on building in areas of natural threats. This is an attempt to educate Activities in this area are very much limited to the municipal and technical authorities on how the regional level, since few of the phenomena to make the best use of land. However, little has that occur in the region (mostly natural) can be changed. The great challenge is how to develop prevented, while the more 'passive' tasks of and implement a strategy to combat poverty, at prevention and mitigation are extremely costly. the same time as taking into account the risk and disaster factors. Land planning Effective planning in land-use is the basis for all Causes of dangerous phenomena policies of risk and disaster prevention. This is a Until now little could be done to intervene highly sensitive issue, and yet the lack of directly in dangerous events before they set offa adequate policies in the region increases with chain of disastrous consequences. As we have every disaster. The poorest communities are seen, the main phenomena in the region are obliged to use high-risk land, as is increasingly landslides, floods, and, to a lesser extent, apparent in every country. For example, in drought. However, these cannot be separated Guatemala, in the metropolitan area, there are from problems that have been caused by human more than 50 poor neighbourhoods or agency, such as deforestation, which makes any settlements situated on unstable slopes that are intervention very complex. Reforestation frequently affected by landslides, whether projects, alternative farming, and forestry because of intense rains or because of seismic conservation are generally not linked to risk activity. Equally, there are other risks associated reduction: hence, despite some interesting with the inappropriate housing of repatriated initiatives by the EU and the World Bank, refugees, demobilised fighters, and returnees among others, the lack of progress in the region. (with the situation of the Ixcan being the most egregious example). These communities are placed in the most unstable parts of the country, Civil protection projects and building and without swift and appropriate intervention regulations they will soon become 'environmental refugees'. Important steps have been identified in the area In Honduras, of 200 barrios or neighbour- of public works, for example for flood hoods that are classified as marginalised in the protection, and there exist codes and laws for capital, Tegucigalpa, 80 are at high risk, mainly high-rise buildings in high-risk zones (liable to because they are so exposed. In San Salvador seismic activity and hurricanes). However, the and its environs, the marginal barrios are economic situation and the lack of political will devastated each year by the River Acelhuate, mean that the small constructions of this kind because they are so close to the river banks. The that have been built to date make an insignificant same thing happens in Nicaragua and Costa contribution to resolving the problems of floods Rica. In practice, this highly irrational use of in many parts of the geographical area. In land is becoming the main risk factor for the addition, the design of these buildings often does population. not relate to the phenomena likely to be A strategy on Land Planning produced by the experienced. Some are even hazardous to the Central American Alliance for Sustainable population themselves. For example, the dyke Development (ALIDES) is possibly the most built to protect Cartago (Costa Rica) from the coherent and global in the region, but very few flow of sludge caused by the eruption of the of its recommendations have been put into Irazu in 1963 was dismantled because of practice. At a national level, some efforts have structural weaknesses. In Nicaragua mini-dams been made, mainly in Costa Rica, where CNE built in the southern basin of Lake Managua to

61 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities prevent flooding in the capital eventually helping to build the capacity of communities at became a risk-factor for the population living in risk, and working with relief and response the lower part of the basin. The public works that groups to enable them to confront crises, before, are really needed are very costly to build, which during, and after impact. These activities are is partly why they are uncommon. increasingly organised in the region and are the However, there have been certain initiatives essence of risk-reduction work. to establish building regulations, though these tend to be observed only in public buildings Warning systems and not in individual housing, which is precisely what is most vulnerable in the Important advances have been in the warning region. Most of these regulations are also systems for cyclone risk and, to a lesser extent, inappropriate in the absence of proper seismic flood warnings (whether or not linked to research in that area. Such studies have tropical cyclones). Progress has also been made seldom been completed. For example, in in hurricane warning systems, particularly in Mexico there exists one study for the Estado tracking them and forecasting their path, de Colima, and now one is being considered intensity, and speed. for the capital; in El Salvador a study was This work forms part of the global system of recently completed with the support of UNAM meteorological vigilance that is managed by the for the area of San Salvador; in Nicaragua and World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), of Costa Rica, partial studies are being carried which Central America and Mexico form the IV out for high-priority areas in Managua and Regional Association. This system combines San Jose respectively. land, maritime, aerial, and satellite observation through Specialised Meteorological Centres, from where the information is distributed to Table 19: Building codes for high-risk countries by special high-velocity telecommuni- areas cations systems. Central American countries currently receive material processed in the US Country Codes and regulations Regional Centre in Miami, and have adopted the improved Start-4 system. Mexico Various (elaborated for each federal The challenge is how to communicate the risk organisation) of a particular phenomenon to the population at Guatemala Seismic Regulations for Guatemala large. This is where many problems arise, from City (1971) and Seismic Code interpretation on the one hand to the lack of any Proposal (1979) effective means of communicating with the population, especially in rural areas, on the El Salvador Regulation for Seismic Design (1996) other. There is also the problem of making the and Technical Design Regulations decision to issue a warning, which is often a (1994) highly centralised and politicised process. As a result, warnings may be given too late. Honduras None Flood-warning systems are underdeveloped, despite flooding being the most common Nicaragua Seismic Code for Buildings in the Area of DN (1973) and Building natural phenomenon in the region. One Regulation (1983) difficulty is that it has not been possible to establish the level of risk, due to the lack of Costa Rica Seismic Code (1986) studies of the hydrological cycles and the hydrographic basins whose rivers are most Panama Design Regulation (1984) likely to flood at any given time. All the Central American countries have been supported by the Nordic countries to install numerical systems of hydrological prediction, though unfortunately using models that have proved impractical. Preparedness However, some specific pilot projects underway in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua may The main objective of disaster-preparedness make it possible to widen the warning systems in work is to tackle unavoidable events with the the area, with Costa Rica being the most minimum of repercussions. This involves advanced.

62 Progress and needs in disaster management

It is important to note that the various supplies such as medicine and food. And last but mathematical models for predicting floodsd o not not least, the problem of communication, since respond to the practical needs of the region. They there are seldom any means of communicating are often adopted in order to keep up bilateral with affected areas. (Here, the network of radio aid relationships, but their usefulness is limited to enthusiasts in the region plays a significant role.) the institutions involved, and does not benefit the In the relief phase, the Red Cross plays a very population which is threatened or at risk. important role in each country. The extent of its work varies from one place to another, but it has made great efforts to respond in appropriate Preparation for protection ways. The Mexican Red Cross is the best- When dealing with a foreseen phenomenon, it is equipped organisation, with many vehicles and possible to take preventive measures, such as a sophisticated global, regional, and national evacuating the population or setting up supply communications system. lines. When disaster actually strikes, people take Supply Management (SUMA) software has their own steps to protect themselves. been employed by PAHO since 1991. Funded by Pre-emptive population evacuation is rarely the Netherlands, this software facilitates the carried out. A dreadful example of this inaction administration of all kinds of supplies coming in was seen during the eruption of the Chichonal from outside the catastrophe zone itself. PAHO volcano in Chiapas in 1982. Local people were has conducted extensive training in how to use practically forced to remain in their homes by the system, though several countries lack the the state authorities, with the tragic result that equipment to make best use of it. most of the Zoque indian population was buried by burning lava and volcanic ash. In Nicaragua, the people living around Bluefields on the Emergency plans Atlantic Coast were not evacuated during Emergency plans have been formulated by the Hurricane Cesar in 1996, even when it was competent authorities in each country. They known that it was about to strike. There are should encompass both national and local many similar examples in the region. needs, depending on the risks and All of the disaster-related bodies in the vulnerabilities identified. However these plans region, official and non-governmental alike, are not always comprehensive, especially in produce information on what to do in the case of terms of risk. It is also questionable how effective an earthquake, a flood, a fire, and so on. There they really are, since most of them are not up-to- are masses of material available. In Mexico, for date (though El Salvador and Guatemala have instance, there is even a manual outlining a recently updated theirs, and Nicaragua is in the Family Protection Plan for Disasters. All this process of doing so). Often, they were produced material is very useful, but it is not reaching the to respond to immediate situations and, once population at risk in an organised way. Rather, these have passed, they become no more than it frequently arrives in a muddled and reference material and are of no operational use incomplete form. in other situations. And although the region now faces frequent drought, it is noteworthy that the relevant ministries (Agriculture and Preparation for relief Livestock) have no contingency plans for this Relief organisations face a series of difficulties, challenge. especially with regard to the management of Other important factors regarding these relief, which comes mainly from outside after national emergency plans have been identified the country has done what it can. Meanwhile, by CEPREDENAC. For instance, only in Costa urgent needs are not covered during the first Rica and Guatemala is it a legal obligation to few hours after impact. Examples of this are the develop and follow emergency plans, and only earthquake in Limon (Costa Rica), where more Costa Rica has made its national emergency than 48 hours went by without urgent needs plan official. Furthermore, only in Costa Rica being attended to, the case of Hurricane Cesar and El Salvador are the plans truly national in in Tasba Pauni (Nicaragua), and the fate of their coverage; in the other countries, they are Francisco Leon (Mexico) with the eruption of only partial. Finally, not one of the plans is Chichonal. Other serious problems lie in the public knowledge within the country. In poor co-ordination between relief organisations, Honduras, the emergency plan is actually and the frequent absence of immediately usable confidential.

63 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

There are very few NGOs with emergency Red Cross and PAHO publications, including plans, with the Red Cross being a notable the Red Cross compendium for natural-disaster exception. In Costa Rica, 16 organisations are management ('Series 3000'), among many developing a co-ordinated plan for technology- others. (Once the international decade finishes, related emergencies and are preparing it is not clear whether the IDRND magazine will proposed legislation so that it can be officially have the funding to survive.) recognised. PAHO supports the development of There is a considerable amount of emergency plans at a regional level in the health information available on the Internet on the sector and has its own Emergency Programme, activities organised by official organisations in as do the MSF offices. the field of natural disasters. CENAPRED in Mexico issues daily updates on 'Popo', and organisations such as the CNE (www.cne.go.cr) Information and training and the Regional Centre of Information on Disasters (www.netsalud.sa.cr/ops/crid) are Awareness raising, training, and development useful sources. PAHO organised a Latin play an important role in the work of reducing American Seminar for the Managing risk and vulnerability, and in disaster Information on Disasters on the Internet in late mitigation; and information is critical both in 1997. terms of advising people of the likely risks they Documentation centres are also valuable but, face, and in sharing ideas about preventive steps with the exception of the PAHO centre in Costa that might be taken. In the region, information Rica, most have incomplete or very specialised and training on response to natural holdings. PAHO's Disaster Documentation catastrophes, and to a lesser degree to disasters Centre (DDC) was set up to disseminate material of human agency, are produced mainly to to public as well as private organisations and to support preparation for disasters. concerned individuals. Demands on the Centre Most of the work going on in this area is are currently outstripping its capacity to concerned with the dissemination of information respond, and moves are underway to link it with on the threats, and to a lesser extent with how to other libraries through a Regional System of prepare for the resulting emergencies. Information on the Reduction of Natural However, there is very little done in terms of Catastrophes, in order to expand its impact and prevention, apart from new programmes in reach in a more efficient way. Another initiative Costa Rica and Mexico. In both cases, however, is the idea of converting the existing DDC into a these are primarily concentrating on the Regional Centre for Information on Disasters as development and application of earthquake- a multi-agency centre. PAHO, WHO, IDRND, resistant engineering. CEPREDENAC, IFRCS, and MSF are in favour Prevention work relates to decisions taken at of this move. the highest level, which are shaped by political However, the local communities, which ought or funding considerations, and civil-society to be the main recipients of information and organisations are generally not involved. But in training, are not being reached. Although this is a practice, the concept of prevention has scarcely widely known problem and concern, nowhere been developed at all, especially among political did we find a properly structured programme for actors. communicating information to the people at The production and dissemination of most serious risk. The Red Cross is a key actor in information on natural disasters is achieved this area. By the very nature of its work, it is an mainly through conferences, seminars, and organisation that works closely with communities workshops; specialised journals and websites; and also has relatively good geographical and documentation centres. The information is coverage (though this is very patchy in some very diverse, ranging from detailed accounts of areas) and a wide scope of activities. For example, major events, to technical and social the Honduran Red Cross (established in 1937) is perspectives on disasters, to micro-studies such organising community-level disaster training as the study of vulnerability of hospitals in Costa workshops but is also participating in latrine- Rica. Some of the most widely circulated construction programmes with a view to publications and well-used websites in the reducing vulnerability in the most marginalised region include 'STOP Disasters' and the reports communities. It should also be pointed out that prepared by the IDRND; 'CEPREDENAC the majority of evacuation drills that take place in News', which is sent to members by email; and schools and other public and private buildings in

64 Progress and needs in disaster management the region are co-ordinated by the Red Cross, of Education have created a special unit for which is very involved in this kind of activity. this issue, and co-ordinate with other The Salvadoran Red Cross has a community institutions, especially the National training programme (part of the Series 3000) Emergency Committees and the Red Cross. and organises disaster-preparedness courses on On the other hand, universities and other request. Workshops and training programmes training centres do not generally include this are also being developed in Nicaragua, Costa subject in their programmes, with a few Rica, and Panama, looking at local risks and notable exceptions. For example, at the trying to deal with the expressed needs of the faculty of law at the University of El Salvador, communities. humanitarianism is included as part of the There are a number of other initiatives, course on international law, and the including those being sponsored or run by engineering degrees in Costa Rica, Mexico, international agencies such as GTZ, or by and Nicaragua cover earthquake-resistant multilateral agencies such as UNDP. Many structures. CENAPRED and the UNAM are NGOs also work in health and agricultural also now running courses on the Global programmes and others connected with Administration of Disasters. potential disasters, but this is seldom their main • The media: great efforts have been made to focus. maintain a high level of information through Overall, while there is very rich empirical the mass media. These are important knowledge of potential risks, based on on-the- channels for passing on knowledge and ground experience, this has not been appropriate information to the public, to sufficiently exploited or valued, and much of the enable people to take better preventive information and expertise is lost. There is little action. Generally there is communication co-ordination of effort, and a general lack of between the media and organisations communication and exchange among responsible for disaster management. community leaders, trainers, and local groups on issues of natural disasters. The only positive • Politics: aspects of risk reduction and example found in the mapping exercise was in disaster mitigation can be developed without Mexico, where, with the support of the World huge political commitment, especially with Council of Churches, a group of people affected regard to disaster preparedness. This is not by the Cerro Negro in Nicaragua and other so for prevention, partly because of the high victims of disasters in El Salvador visited costs entailed and the very low level of communities threatened by Popocatepetl, awareness on the subject, but also because the where they shared their experiences and the technical specialists present convincing and lessons they had learned. It would be persuasive arguments to the politicians. The interesting, for example, if local committees and key is to demonstrate to the politicians the civil-society organisations in the region had the cost-effectiveness of prevention, compared opportunity to share experience of the People's with reacting to the consequences of Local Emergency Committee (Comite Popular catastrophes. This situation partly explains why the competent authorities are often Local de Emergencia) of Limon (Costa Rica), accorded only a low priority and have serious which because of the lack of response from the difficulties in keeping going. None has competent authorities took responsibility for adequate funding for emergencies, or the handling the emergency arising from the necessary resources for their work to be truly earthquake that destroyed the city on in April efficient. However, and more positively, the 1991. establishment of the Central American Commendable efforts have been made in the Alliance for Sustainable Development region for informing specific social groups, but (ALIDES) is a sign that certain issues are little has been done to raise awareness in certain rising up the political agenda. While the key sectors, important in terms of prevention results remain to be seen, the atmosphere is and preparation for emergency situations. more favourable to the need for sustainable • The education system: more needs to be development than has been the case in the done to introduce the subject of disasters and past, especially considering the peace their prevention into the school curriculum. processes in various Central American Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras have countries. had some success in this area. Their Ministers

65 6 Lessons and challenges

One important and somewhat controversial issues become simpler and agencies tend to aspect of risk-mapping is that of classifying intervene. However, we also know that vested emergency situations in the region. The political interests can prevent such a declaration difficulties relate directly to the nature and the being made, even when there is clearly an size of the events. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and emergency situation. Governments also have volcanic eruptions are more often seen as their own definition of what constitutes an reasons for intervention than are phenomena emergency, which relates to the extent to which such as drought, floods, and conflict. Drought an event will have national repercussions, and floods in particular are often recurrent, although a calamitous but localised event is still causing those affected to become victims of an emergency for those affected by it. cyclical emergencies. Their lives permanently oscillate between stressful situations and full- blown crisis. It is therefore hard to differentiate How to work in disasters? between a 'normal' and 'emergency' state, a fact that takes us into the debate about what The many interviews conducted throughout this constitutes structural poverty and what is truly mapping exercise revealed a pattern of two an emergency. opposing methods of operating in an emergency This risk map, particularly in its analysis of (not to mention development programmes). social vulnerability, proves the link between This is characterised by a false dichotomy high levels of poverty and high-risk areas in the between 'operational' and 'non-operational' region. Not surprisingly, then, communities methods, which concerns how an emergency facing an emergency situation are at the same response is formulated and put into action. On time living in a condition of structural poverty. the one hand there is a tendency in some If this is true in the majority of cases, does this international agencies, or certain departments mean that these cyclical emergencies are what within them, to 'go operational' even at the bring about structural poverty? expense of displacing local actors; and, on the The size of a given event and its impact are other, some agencies adopt a position of taking still more difficult to define if set against a global no action at all unless this is done through local context. The differences between Mexico and organisations and counterpart. The victims of Central America, Asia, and Africa are very this clash of viewpoints are the people affected by marked, and do not readily lend themselves to the calamity. comparison. It is largely agreed that The tensions between the competing emergencies that affect a given region should be positions are heightened when top-down or understood and evaluated within that particular head-office decisions seem to ignore or context, especially in terms of politics, undervalue the capacity and knowledge within economics, society, and culture. However, some a given region and locally. At the same time, questions arise: when exactly should an there is sometimes a tendency to deny the role international organisation become involved in that technical specialists may have to play. We humanitarian action? What are the institutional believe, however, that this is fundamentally a criteria for defining an event as an emergency? false dichotomy, in that neither way of working What size or impact does a disaster need to have constitutes an absolute paradigm or model. in order to produce and justify a response? Every situation is different and requires a Where are the dividing lines between different combination of skills and responses. emergency relief, rehabilitation, and Whether a project is operational or not should reconstruction? And who decides? To aid be a matter of principle, but depends on a workers on the ground, it appears that when a proper evaluation of each situation, and the state of emergency is officially declared, the capacity and willingness to draw on a wide

66 Lessons and challenges repertoire of options. Where there is local, improvement in conditions at the community national, or regional capacity, it seems obvious level. Given the human-resource limitations and that these resources should be used first, and existing workloads, this is a major reason why highly specialised support would be needed emergency work is not valued or is not seen as a only where local capacity was exceeded. There priority. may even be 'mixed' situations where an There are real differences between operational presence would combine with the development work and emergency relief. The participation or co-ordinated action of former focuses on seeking to change the counterparts. economic, social, or political systems that give Working through local organisations in rise to poverty and marginalisation. The latter emergency situations presents certain focuses on preventing, mitigating, or important challenges, including an assessment overcoming crises that affect these systems of whether they have the necessary expertise because of the impact of a calamitous event. and capacity to respond in an appropriate That is, repairing damage and rehabilitating the fashion. There may not be local organisations affected communities. Paradoxically, it is through whom to work in some of the very high- precisely these differences that reveal common risk areas. Even in areas where there are ground: the complementary nature of and the organisations already working, their capacity continuity between the two. While development and scope must be weighed against the potential consists of a progressive process of building for an international humanitarian agency to capacity in families and communities to satisfy make a wider impact. The key is to maximise any needs and eventually to improve living external assistance or input, while not losing conditions, an emergency represents a sight of the need to develop local capacity. breakdown in these dynamics and even destroys The success of a disaster response depends the resources that do exist. At this point the largely on the capacity of the various local communities lose the capacity to satisfy their bodies, but this mapping exercise found that the own basic needs. vast majority of local organisations that are The likelihood of an emergency is ever- involved in development work do not focus on present. Emergencies are part of the dynamics emergencies at all. But it is also true that they of a community, interrupting them, slowing have high levels of organisational, management, them down, and bringing about a complete and lobbying skills that could all be employed change of direction. The risks are always and developed in the event of an emergency. foreseeable, and a true development process is responsible for controlling or minimising them. We would argue against institutionalising a dichotomy between emergencies and Emergencies versus development, especially given the levels of risk development and vulnerability in the region. Each emergency can represent an enormous step backwards in Where is the line drawn between emergency the possibilities for development, or the and rehabilitation and between rehabilitation disappearance of hard-earned progress in the and development? This is a critical question, in fight against poverty. In fact, cyclical that it is common to find, even within a single emergencies can be the cause of extreme and institution, a complete split between what is structural poverty. Preventing and responding thought of as emergency work and what is to emergencies is not only a duty, it is also an considered sustainable development. But these imperative if efforts to promote sustainable are not mutually exclusive: in fact, one cannot development are to succeed in breaking this sensibly look at one without the other. cycle. A frequent perception is that the very act of Development programmes should assisting in an emergency negates the concepts incorporate a focus on disaster prevention, of sustainability and capacity-building, and that mitigation, and preparedness as part of their rehabilitation undermines the transformative work in the field of capacity-building. goals of development work. In practice, Emergency programmes also need to respond emergency work does indeed mean a bigger to the same values, above all in ensuring that administrative and operational workload for rehabilitation work supports sustainable most people already involved in development, development goals. Programmes that go but it does not translate into any long-term beyond merely attending to damage and loss

67 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities caused by calamitous events would help to economic sectors such as agriculture and resolve the immediate and long-term needs, industry that are of vital importance, given the helping to break the cycle of these events, and indebtedness of these countries. In addition, the diminishing the need for future intervention. social and economic conditions of the majority Seen like this, rehabilitation is more than an of people in the region are contributing to an opportunity for supporting the processes of increase in vulnerability, especially among the sustainable development. Experience has also indigenous population and women. shown that emergency situations act as a catalyst The analysis of threats and risks has allowed to organisational processes such as mutual us to identify differences between the different support, and could open up ways to introduce countries, but within a regional context in which change that would otherwise be very costly in all the countries suffer every kind of threat, from terms of resources, time, and effort. Examples hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, have been seen in the building up of and tsunamis to landslides and floods. And organisations and community groups, the re- without exception all the countries are at high valuing of the social and economic roles of risk of such natural disasters. However, in women, changes in how productive or domestic carrying out a multi-phenomena analysis, we activities are conducted, and so on. have defined those areas that are at greatest risk. We have also established a range of needs and initiatives concerned with disaster reduction, Resources and finance though significant gaps exist in this area. Scientific and technical research is relatively This way of integrating development and advanced, but is often inadequate to determine emergency work also presents a challenge in local or micro-level risks. Also, vital instruments terms of the resources and financing required. such as the cartography of phenomena are Within the international aid industry, the largely lacking, especially for complex sets of marked division between emergencies and phenomena. development determines funding sources and Research on vulnerability is not very channels. Further, the agencies' thematic developed in the region and has focused on (sectoral) priorities make the business of infrastructure, rather than on the economic and implementing integral programmes in social dimensions. Disaster-prevention work is emergency situations even more complicated. It intellectually weak, and not often translated into may be necessary to channel development practice. Building regulations and codes exist resources towards achieving a sustainable on paper, but are seldom applied. One of the emergency response. For example, promoting most critical aspects for the future is the absence reforestation or crop diversification would help of urban planning. The region suffers from to reduce vulnerability to drought. It is also to be urban sprawl, characterised by the anarchic remembered that sustainable emergency growth of cities, and this may well get worse in programmes require a greater commitment, years to come. not only in terms of resources but also of time More has been achieved in the sphere of and the willingness to play an 'accompaniment' disaster preparedness for those emergencies or support role with local organisations and that cannot be prevented than in the field of beneficiary groups. disaster prevention. However, improvisation is still the order of the day, as a way of managing potentially disastrous events. There are new Conclusions initiatives in this area, and recently local and rural needs have been prioritised, leaving high- The mapping exercise confirms the high-risk risk city populations to one side. Even so, the conditions and great vulnerability of Mexico impact of plans and preparedness programmes and Central America as a region. The scale of is still very limited, and coverage is poor. the damage that has been sustained in the Information and training, and the evaluation poorest communities, as in other social and of the results of research constitute the basis of economic sectors, speaks for itself. Natural the preventive and preparedness work. Here, a catastrophes and conflicts put brakes on great deal of useful work has been done, and it is development work as well as affecting the possible that the weaknesses may be overcome environment, the social conditions of poor with the development of strong information people, and also the infrastructure and key networks on a regional and national scale.

68 References and background reading

Sources Romano, E. (1996) Represas y Desastres en El Salvador, San Salvador: CEPRODE Agurto, S. (1997) Programas de Estabilizaciony Ajuste UNDP (1997) Cooperation Tecnicay Finantiera para Eslruclural y sus Efectos Economicos y Societies, El Salvador, segun information proporcionada por los Managua: FIDEG Cooperantes (1992-1997), El Salvador CONAMA (Comision Nacional del Medio In addition to the works cited here, the authors Ambiente) (1995), Plan de action ambiental, Guatemala consulted a large number of unpublished reports on workshops, conference proceedings, and other Elu, M. (1996) Maternidad Sin Riesgos en Mexico, regional and national events and consultation Mexico: Comite Promotor por una Maternidad sin Riesgos en Mexico exercises. Enriquez, A. (1997) Desarrollo y ONG's en El Salvador: Relos y Perspeclivas, Revista Alternativa para el Desarrollo, 44, El Salvador Periodicals and other serial FIDEG (Fundacion International para el Desafio publications Economico Global) (1996) La Mujer y los Hogares Rurales Nicaragiienses: Indicos Economicos y Sociales, Boletin Mensual (San Salvador): a journal about Managua: FIDEG Salvadoran civil and economic affairs. FLACSO (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Fasiculos (Mexico City): a series of monographs Sociales) y el Institutode la Mujer del Ministeriode published in the mid-1990s on various natural Asuntos Sociales de Espana (1993) Mujeres phenomena, including hurricanes, tidal waves, Latinoamericanas en Cifras: Mexico, Santiago, Chile volcanoes, and forest fires, and on factors such a FLACSO (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias chemical risks and pollution. Sociales) y el Instituto de la Mujer del Ministerio de Asuntos Sociales de Espana'~ (1997) Mujeres Revista Alternativa para el Desairollo (San Salvador): Latinoamericanas en Cifras: Nicaragua, Santiago, Chile a magazine about development alternatives. In IICA (Instituto Interamericano de Cooperation 1997 numbers 43-47 covered topics relating to para la Agricultura)/Banco Interamericano de economic conditions, labour issues, and electoral desarrollo (BID) (1996) Mujeres de maiz: Programa developments in El Salvador. de Andlisis de la Politica del Sector Agropecudrio Frente a la Mujer Productora de Alimentos en Centroamerica y Panama, San Jose, Costa Rica Organisations INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), Ministerio de Salud Piiblica y Asistencia Social (MSPYAS), Organisations whose national studies and other Encuestas de Demografia y Salud (DHS), USAID, relevant works were consulted in the course of UNICEF, Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno preparing this study include the Pan-American Infantil, 1995, Guatemala Health Organisation of WHO, UNDP, UNICEF, OPS (Organization Panamericana de la Salud) and the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (1993) Algunos Indicadores de Salud Seleccionados por (FLACSO), based in Chile. Documents produced by Departamentos, Vol. 1, Guatemala the various emergencies and planning departments OPS (Organization Panamericana de la Salud) of the respective governments in the region were (1994) Condiciones de Salud en Guatemala, Guatemala extensively consulted. Finally, the mapping exercise OPS (Organization Panamericana de la Salud) was enriched by the input of a large number of (1996) El Proceso de Transformation de la Salud en NGOs in Mexico and Central America, several of Guatemala, Guatemala which are mentioned in the text

69 Index

Acelhuate River 21 civil-society organisations 24, 48-9, COT1DE 53 AGE 57 56-8 crop diversification 68 agricultural production climate patterns 11 cyclogenetic zones 11 Costa Rica 26, 38 CNE 27,54,56,59,64 cyclones 14-15, 17,62-3 crop diversification 68 COCOCH 29,54 damage to 7, 13,23,25 COCO PA 41 dams 17,61-2 drought resistance 54 Cocos tectonic plate 15, 16 deaths El Salvador 25 COEN 53,54,56 earthquake 14, 24, 25 Guatemala 45 CONAMA 21 floods 8 Honduras 7 Conception volcano 16 Hurricane Mitch 7 indigenous peoples 11 CONE 53 landslides 17,35 Mexico 38,40 conflict 7,11,19-20,21,23,41-4 volcanoes 24 militarisation 41,42 CONIC 57 debt 19,28,68 Nicaragua 48, 50 CONRED 27,53,54,56 deforestation 8, 61 structural adjustment 38 conservation 61 conflict 19 women 33,48 Consigiiina volcano 16 Costa Rica 21 agrochemicals 21-2,45 COPECO 17,54 El Salvador 21,35 aid 7,29-30,32,56,68 COPEN 53-4 Guatemala 21, 44 ALIDES 61,65 corruption 28, 29 Honduras 21 Atlantic Coast 13, 14, 17 Costa Rica Mexico 21,42 agricultural production 26, 38 Nicaragua 21 barrios, Honduras 61 agrochemical pollution 22 soil erosion 17 building regulations 13, 28, 61-2 building regulations 62 democratisation 28 CNE 27, 54, 56, 59, 64 desertification 21 Campeche, Bay of 14, 15 deforestation 21 DGPC 52 campesinos 11,13, 19, 29, 47, 54 drought 18,29 DIPECHO 62 Caribbean tectonic plate 15,16 dyke 61 disaster Casitas Volcano 7 earthquakes 13, 16,24,63 frequency/severity 11 CENAPRED 13,24,52,64,65 floods 17,26 health impact 36-7 CEPREDENAC 60 health care 36, 37 high-risk areas 7, 22-6, 46 co-ordination 13,51,58, 63-4 high-risk areas 22, 25-6 poverty 7, 11 gender/emergency programmes hospitals 28 disaster management 29, 56, 64-5, 51-2,54 housing 35 68 risk-mapping 13,51 hurricanes 14, 15, 26 disaster preparedness 7, 8, 62-4 volcanoes 16 infant mortality 36 disaster prevention 54, 61-2, 64, 68 CEPREDENAC/OEA study 28 international aid 29 disease 7,39,43 CEPRODE 25,30,58 living standards 35, 38 displacement 34, 42, 44, 57-8 Cerro Negro volcano 14, 16, 49, malnutrition 37, 38 documentation centres 64 60,65 maternal mortality 36 drinking water 35, 45 CESCO 58 People's Local Emergency drought 11 Chiapas Committee 65 Chiapas 42 civil-society organisations 57 political factors/aid 29 Costa Rica 18,29 conflict 19,23,41-3 population distribution 25-6 El Nino 13, 18 deforestation 21 poverty 32, 34 El Salvador 18,25 drought 42 risk-mapping 14 forest fires 21 healthcare 42,43 tourism 26 Guatemala 18,24-5 volcanoes 24, 63 volcanoes 16-17,26 Honduras 7, 18 Chichonal volcano 24, 63 vulnerability data 27 Mexico 18,42 Choloma 20 waste disposal 22 Nicaragua 7, 18, 49 Chorotega region 26 women-headed households 33 vulnerability 68 civil protection agencies 40, 52, 61-2 zone of silence 16, 26 drought-resistant vegetables 54 civil society 8, 12,41,44,55 Costa Rica University 60 dykes 61

70 Index earnings levels 32, 33, 38, 48 sustainable development 10, 67 cyclones 15 earthquake-resistant structures 64, technology-related 20 deforestation 21, 44 65 women's participation 48-9, drought 18, 24-5 see also building regulations 51-2, 53,54,58 earthquakes 14,15,24,43-4 earthquakes 11 EMNDC 54,56,59 education 45 Costa Rica 13, 16,24,63 Encuentro National por la Paz 41 floods 17,24-5 deaths 14, 24,25 evacuation drills 64—5 health care 37, 45 El Salvador 14, 15,24,25 explosions 20 high-risk areas 22, 24-5, 46 Guatemala 14,15,24,43-4 EZLN 41 hospitals 28 Mexico 13, 14, 15,28,39 housing 61 Nicaragua 14, 24 FACS 54,58 hurricanes 7, 24-5 risk reduction 60 Family Protection Plan for indigenous peoples 34, 45-6 ECHO 58, 59 Disasters, Mexico 63 infant mortality 34,36,45-6 education 27-8, 45, 65 fault lines 15 INSIVUMEH 13 see also literacy FEMID 60 landslides 7, 18 El Nino 7, 13, 18 fertility rates 39, 45, 47 literacy/gender 32, 45, 47 El Salvador FIDEG 48 living conditions 35, 45 agricultural production 25 fires 7,20,21 malnutrition 37, 38, 45 building regulations 62 firewood 21,35 marginalisation 45-6 CEPRODE 25, 30, 58 FLACSO 30,39,46,48 maternal mortality 36, 37, 46 civil-society organisation 58 flood protection 61 National Women's Office 53 COEN 53,54,56 floods 11, 13, 14 pollution 45 deforestation 21,35 Costa Rica 17,26 population centres 24, 34 drought 18,25 cyclones 15 poverty 32, 34, 44, 45-6 earthquakes 15,24,25 El Salvador 17,21,25 refugees to Mexico 44-5, 57-8 floods 17,21,25 Guatemala 17,24-5 schools 28 health care 36, 37 Honduras 17 SINRED 53 high-risk areas 22, 25 Lempa Foundation 58 volcanoes 14, 16, 24 housing 25, 35 Mexico 8, 17 vulnerability 46 hurricanes 7, 14, 15 Nicaragua 17,48 waste disposal 22 indigenous peoples 34 warning systems 62-3 women-headed households 33, industry 20 food insecurity 38, 42-3 46 infant mortality 36 food security 33, 37-8, 40 institutions 13, 53 forest fires 7, 21 health international aid 29 Friends of the Americas 57 agrochemicals 22 land crisis 19 disasters 36-7 landslides 18,25,35 gender gender 8,31,46 literacy 47 agriculture 33, 48 poverty 36 living conditions 35 civil society 8 health care 36, 37 malnutrition 37, 38 earnings inequality 32, 33 Chiapas 42,43 maternal mortality 36, 47 healthcare 36-7,43 Costa Rica 36, 37 migration 19 health status 8,31,46 gender 36-7,43 pollution 21 literacy 31,32,39,47,48 Guatemala 37, 45 poverty 32, 34, 47 malnutrition 31,38,39,43,49 Honduras 37 remittances 19-20 marginalisation 32 Mexico 37,42,43 seismic activity 15-16 poverty 8,31,32 Nicaragua 7, 37, 48, 49 tsunamis 18 vulnerability 8,31,39,46,48, high-risk areas 7, 22-6, 46-8 urban populations 34 52,68 HIV/AIDS 20,43 volcanoes 15—16, 25, 35 gender awareness, CEPREDENAC homelessness 8, 25 waste disposal 22 51-2,54 Honduran Red Cross 20, 64 women-headed households 33, gender-fair policies, emergencies 57 Honduras 47 gender roles, returned families 57-8 agricultural production 7 World Bank 19 Geographic Information System barrios 61 emergencies 8, 63-4, 66 27,58 building regulations 62 civil-society organisations 56-7 Guatemala CESCO 58 gender-fair policies 57 agricultural production 45 civil-society organisations 58 local capacities 56 agrochemical pollution 22 conflict 19 national responses 55 building regulations 62 COPECO 17,54 political factors 29 civil society organisations 57-8 deforestation 21 relief work 10,63 conflict 19,43-4 drought 7, 18 resources 68 CONRED 27,53,54,56 floods 17

71 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

health care 37 Guatemala 34, 36, 45-6 living standards 31, 35, 38, 45, 47, high-risk areas 22 Honduras 34 49-50 hurricanes 14, 15, 24, 26 marginalisation 34, 40 local capacities 8, 10, 12, 56, 66-7 indigenous peoples 34 Mexico 24, 34, 39, 40, 63 local government 31-2 industry 20 Nicaragua 34 infant mortality 36 poverty 34 malnutrition 31 institutions 13-14,53-4 security forces 41 children 31,38,49 literacy 47 vulnerability 68 Costa Rica 37, 38 living conditions 35, 47 Zoque indians 24, 63 El Salvador 37, 38 malnutrition 37, 38 INETER 13 gender 31,38,39,43,49 marginalisation 47 infant mortality Guatemala 37, 38, 45 maternal mortality 36, 37, 47 Chiapas 43 Honduras 37, 38 peasant farmers 54 Costa Rica 36 Mexico 37, 38 political factors/emergencies 29 El Salvador 36 mothers 38 poverty 32, 34, 47 Guatemala 36, 45 Nicaragua 37, 38, 49-50 schools 28 Honduras 36 maquilas 20 seismic activity 15 Mexico 36,39,43 maternal mortality technology-related emergencies Nicaragua 36, 49, 50 Chiapas 43 20 informal sector 38, 48 Costa Rica 36 urban populations 34 INIM 54 El Salvador 36, 47 women-headed households 33 INM 13 Guatemala 36, 37, 46 hospitals 28 1NS1VUMEH 13 Honduras 36, 37, 47 housing institutions Mexico 36, 37, 39, 43 Costa Rica 35 civil society 55 Nicaragua 36, 37 El Salvador 25, 35 Costa Rica 13, 54 regional differences 36-7 Guatemala 61 El Salvador 13,53 Medecins Sans Frontieres 59-60 landslides 61 Guatemala 13,53 media, disaster management 65 Mexico 39 Honduras 13-14,53-4 Mesoamerican Trench 15 Nicaragua 49 Mexico 13,52-3 Mexican Red Cross 63 structure 31, 34 Nicaragua 13,54 Mexico vulnerability 28, 35 regional 51-6 agricultural production 38, 40 human activity 19-22 risk-mapping 14 building regulations 62 Hurricane Cesar 14, 26, 63 CENAPRED 13,24,52,64,65 Hurricane Fifi 24, 26 international agencies 66 civil protection agencies 40 Hurricane Francelia 53 Intertropical Convergence Zone Hurricane Gilbert 14 14,17 civil society 41 Hurricane Joan 14,24,26,58 Irazii volcano 17 COCO PA 41 Hurricane Mitch 7, 8, 24, 26 cyclones 14—15 Hurricane Pauline 52, 53 •LA RED 30,53,59 deaths from disaster 8 hurricanes lahars 23 deforestation 21, 42 Costa Rica 14, 15, 26 land crisis 19 drought 18 cyclogenetic zones 11,14—15,24 land-use planning 61 earthquakes 13, 14, 15, 28, 39 damage/loss 26 landslides 14, 17-18 emergency-response system 8 deaths 7 deaths 17,35 Family Protection Plan for El Salvador 7, 14, 15 El Salvador 18,25, 35 Disasters 63 Guatemala 7, 24-5 Guatemela 7, 18 fertility rates 39 Honduras 14, 15, 24, 26 housing 61 floods 8, 17 Mexico 14-15,52,53 Mexico 39 health care 37 Nicaragua 7, 14, 15, 24, 26, 48, Nicaragua 18 high-risk areas 22, 23-4 58,63 latrine-construction 64 homelessness 8 warning systems 62-3 lava flow 23 hospitals 28 hydro-meteorology 13,26,62-3 Lempa Foundation 58 housing 39 hygiene 31, 35 Lempa River basin 17, 21, 58 hurricanes 14-15,52,53 life expectancy 20, 45 indigenous peoples 24, 34, 39, ICE 13 Limon 25-6, 63 40,63 IDRND 59,64 literacy infant mortality 36, 39, 43 IFRCS 59 El Salvador 47 infrastructure 40 IICA 33 gender 31,32,39,47,48 • institutions 13, 52-3 Ilopango, Lake 25 Guatemala 32,45,47 landslides 39 indigenous peoples 33-4 Honduras 47 living conditions 35 agriculture 11 Nicaragua 48 malnutrition 37, 38 El Salvador 34 refugees 44 maternal mortality 36, 37, 39, 43

72 Index

migration 19,40 living conditions 35, 49-50 areas affected 40, 52-3, 65 mudslides 8 malnutrition 37, 38, 49-50 warning systems 13, 55-6 National Commission for marginalisation 48 population Reconstruction 52 maternal mortality 36, 37 Costa Rica 25-6 NGOs 30,57 migration 19 disappeared 44, 57 peace process 41 mini-dams 61-2 displacement 34,42,44,57-8 political factors 29, 40 NGOs 30 movement restrictions 43 pollution 21 political factors/emergencies 29 see also indigenous peoples poverty 23, 32, 39 poverty 32, 34, 48, 49 population centres 18,24,34 regional differences 39 seismic activity 16 see also urbanisation remittances 40 structural adjustment 48 poverty 35, 66, 67 risk-mapping 14 technology-related emergencies Costa Rica 32, 34 San Andreas Fault 15 20 disaster 7, 11 sanitation 39 tsunamis 18 El Salvador 32, 34, 47 SARH 13, 17,21 unemployment 48 extreme 11,30,31,32,45,48 S1NAPROC 13,40,52,54,55 urban populations 34, 48 gender 8,31,32 social vulnerability 39-43 volcanoes 7, 14, 16,49,65,66 Guatemala 32, 34, 44, 45-6 technology-related emergencies women-headed households 33, health 36 20 49 Honduras 32,34,47 Tlamanalco 40, 56 women's participation 48-9 indigenous peoples 34 tsunamis 18 NORAD 60 marginalisation 1 1 UNAM 13,23,30,40,62,65 North American tectonic plate 15 Mexico 23,39 volcanoes 13, 16, 23-4, 39, 63 Nicaragua 32,34,48,49 women-headed households 33, OAS 55, 59 vulnerability 32 39, 42 Ocosito River 56 prostitution 38,41, 43 see also Chiapas; Popocatepetl Odes of the East 17 PIT 19 migration 19,38,40,42 OEA/ECHO programme 27-8 Puntarena 26 militarisation 41-3 OFDA 54,57 pyroclastic flows 23 mining pollution 22 Ojo de Agua 19 Mombacho volcano 16 OPS/PAHO 39,45,46 Quiche district 44—5 Momotombo volcano 16 OVS1CORI 13 Motagua-Polochic Fault 15 OxfamGB 7, 8, 10, 14 rainfall 8, 11, 17 mudslides 8, 23 reconstruction 8, 44 Pacaya volcano 16 Red Cross 20, 55, 59, 63, 64-5 National Women's Office, Pacific Coast 13-14,17-18,21-2, RED network 58 Guatemala 53 34 reforestation 61, 68 Nazca tectonic plate 15 Pacific tectonic plate 15 refugees 44-5, 57-8 NGOs 29,30,57,64,65 PAHO 53,55,63,64 regional differences Nicaragua PAHO/WHO 59 institutions 51-6 agricultural production 48, 50 Panama maternal mortality 36-7 agrochemical pollution 22 building regulations 62 Mexico 39 building regulations 62 earnings inequality 33 vulnerability 8, 30-8 civil-society organisations 48-9, hurricanes 14, 15 rehabilitation 60, 67, 68 58 institutions 13-14 relief organisations 10,63 deforestation 21 women-headed households 33 remittances 19-20, 38, 40, 47 drought 7, 18,49 Panamerican Highway 20 resources, emergencies 68 earthquakes 14, 24 peace process 8, 41, 44 returned families 42, 44, 57-8 EMNDC 54,56,59 peasant farmers 54 risk analysis 11, 13-14, 19-22 FACS 54,58 see also campesinos risk evaluation 22-6 floods 17,48 pesticides 21-2 risk management 7, 60, 62 health care 7, 37, 48, 49 politics risk-mapping 8, 10, 13, 14, 51, 65, high-risk areas 22, 47-8 centralised government 28 66 housing 49 disaster management 65, 66 river pollution 21—2 hurricanes 7, 14, 15, 24, 26, 48, emergencies 29 Roatan island 19 58,63 local government 31-2 rockfalls 23 indigenous peoples 34 Mexico 29,40 infant mortality 36, 49, 50 Nicaragua 29 salinisation 21, 29 informal economy 48 repression 44 Salvadoran Red Cross 65 institutions 13, 54 vulnerability 28-30 Samala River 24 landslides 18 pollution 8,20-1,45 San Andreas Fault 15 literacy 48 Popocatepetl 23^, 39 San Cristobal volcano 16

73 Risk-Mapping and Local Capacities

San Jose 25-6 Tlamanalco, Mexico 40, 56 Mexico 39-43 San Pedro Sula 20 tornadoes 11 political focus 28-30 San Roque community 56 torture 41,57 poverty 32 San Salvador 21,25 tourism, Costa Rica 26 regional differences 8, 30-8 San Salvador volcano 16, 35 tsunamis 11,18 risk management 7 sanitation 7,31,39,47 social focus 30-8 Santa Maria volcano 14,16,24 UCR 13 technical focus 27-8 Santiaguito volcano 16,24 UNAM 13,23,30,40,62,65 SAPD 53 UNHCR 44 warning systems SARH 13, 17,21 UNDP 21,29,56,59,65 floods 62-3 schools 27-8 unemployment 11,31,34-5,37-8, hurricanes 62-3 security forces 41 40,48 volcanoes 13, 55-6 seismic activity 11,13,15-16 UNESCO 60 waste disposal 22, 35 see also earthquakes UN1CEF-MINSA 36 water supplies 8, 21, 35, 45, 50 websites, disaster awareness 64 sewage disposal 35 UN1CEF survey 49 WHO/PAHO report 39 sexually transmitted diseases 20, 43 urbanisation 14-15,34-5,48,68 WOLA 19 SICA 60 Urgent Action International 60 women Sico-Paulaya 19 USA agricultural production 33, 48 SI DA 60 immigration laws 20 emergency programmes 48-9, S1NAPROC 13,40,52,54,55 OFDA 54, 57 51-2,53,54,58 SINRED 53 USA1D 25 employment 40 social and economic policies 7, 19 Volcan de Fuego 16 and militarisation 41-2 social exclusion 11 volcanic gases 23 solidarity-based organisations 57 social unrest 7 volcanoes 16-17 vulnerability 52 soil erosion 17, 21 Costa Rica 16-17 widowhood 46 structural adjustment dangers 11, 13,23-4 see also gender; maternal mortality agricultural production 38 El Salvador 15-16,25,35 women-headed households 8 Nicaragua 48 Guatemala 14, 16, 24 Chiapas 42 public spending cuts 11,31-2,35 landslides 17, 18 Costa Rica 33 subduction of plates 15 Mexico 13, 16,23-4,39,63 El Salvador 33,47 supply management software Nicaragua 7, 14, 16, 49, 60, 65 Guatemala 33, 46 (SUMA) 63 warning systems 13, 55-6 Honduras 33 sustainable development 8, 10,30, see also Popocatepetl Mexico 33, 39, 42 31-2,67 vulnerability 11-12 Nicaragua 33, 49 Costa Rica 27 Panama 33 technical specialists 66-7 drought 68 poverty 31,32, 33 technological dangers 20 gender 8, 31, 39, 46, 48, 52, 68 World Bank 19 tectonic plates 11,15 Guatemala 46 World Meteorological Organisation Tehuantepec, Gulf of 14 housing 28, 35 62-3 threat analysis: see risk analysis indigenous peoples 68 tidal waves 11, 18,58,60 living conditions 38 Zoque indians 24, 63

74 Map 1: Mexico and Central America: tectonic plates, geological faults, and hurricane patterns

Regional hurricane patterns T) Gulf of Tehuantepec (May) 2) Campeche (June) STAT ES OF AMERICA 3) Eastern Caribbean (July) 4) Atlantic Region (July) 500 kilometres

North American Plate

Motagua-Polochic Fault DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Caribbean Plate

EL S'AWADOR VgiCARAGU Tectonic plates and geological faults x Movement of plates (direction) \ I VENEZUELA / | Relative movement (direction)

Trenches COLOMEilA t. Ridges Fault lines

map 1 Ma p 2: Mexico: natural risks and vulnerability

• Destructive earthquakes UNIJTED STATE OF AMERICS A Very high threat of drought

Q£g | Very high threat of flooding High threat of drought

32°- [: ','. | High threat of flooding ••••• Earthquake zones:

I I Threat of frost and hail I Very high seismic threat II High seismic threat High volcanic threat III Moderate seismic threat Moderate volcanic threat IV Low seismic threat

-24°- Map 3: Central America: risks of earthquakes and volcanic activity 92° 90° 86° 84° ~l 300 kilometres

200 miles

M E CARIBBEAN SEA

16°

14°

-12° PACIFIC

I

Very high threat of volcanic activity 10° High threat of volcanic activity

Moderate threat of volcanic activity

—• Earthquake zones I Very high seismic threat II High seismic threat III Moderate seismic threat IV Low seismic threat Map 4: Central America: risks of floods, landslides, and drought 92

300 kilometres

200 miles

M E

16°

-14°

PACIFIC OCEAN

10°

Threat of landslides

^^H Threat of floods

BBBI Very high threat of drought

| | High threat of drought