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Home , Cotswold District

Issue 10 May 2009

Contents INTRODUCTION

The Unemployment Bulletin provides a monthly update on unemployment data for Part 1: Summary , the South West region and the . It is produced by A summary of the Economic section of the County Council Chief Executive’s Support Unit unemployment data at district, County, regional Research Team. The data is sourced from the Office for National Statistics via and national level Nomis (www.nomis.co.uk). 1 Part 2: County The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment- Unemployment figures for related benefit (currently Job Seeker’s allowance). The claimant rate is the number the County compared to the of claimants as a proportion of the working age population. South West and the rest of the UK 3 PART 1: SUMMARY

Part 3: Districts The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 3.5% in May 2009. This was an decrease A comparative break down of 0.1% on the April 2009 figure. This is the first time that the rate has decreased of unemployment figures by district since September 2007. The UK rate has remained the same at 4.1% between April 4 and May 2009 with the South West rate remaining the same at 3.1. Gloucestershire’s rate remains above the South West average of 3.1%, but 0.6% Part 4: Wards Further breakdown of lower than the UK average of 4.1%. unemployment figures by ward: The claimant count in Gloucestershire in May 2009 fell by 214 people. The amount of people claiming in May 2009 was 1.7% lower than the number in April 2009 6 compared to a 0.9% decrease in the South West and a 0.5% increase for the UK. 8 Forest of Dean 10 The claimant count in Gloucestershire has decreased for the first time since March 2008. The count was 135% higher in May 2009 than at the same point in the 12 previous year as shown in the graph below.

Stroud 14

Tewkesbury 16 Gloucestershire claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change: Part 5: Map May 2008 to May 2009 Distribution of claimant rate across Gloucestershire 18 150% 130% Part 6: Young People Data about Young People 110% Not in Education, 90% Employment or Training 70% 50% (NEET) 20 30% % change 10% -10% -30% -50% Produced by: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 The Research Team (Economics) Source: ONS Crown Copyright Reserved% change on previous month % change on previous year Chief Executive Support Unit Gloucestershire County Council June 2009 Unemployment Bulletin Page 2

DISTRICTS AT A GLANCE

At a glance unemployment information grouped by district. Includes:

Claim count: Total number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance in May 2009 Compared to last month: How much larger/smaller May’s claim count is compared to April, expressed as a % Claimant rate: The % of working population claiming Job Seekers Allowance in May 2009 Highest claiming ward: The ward with the highest claim count in that district and the rate

CHELTENHAM BOROUGH GLOUCESTER CITY Claim count: 2,844 Claim count: 3,273 Compared to last month: - 0.6% Compared to last month: - 4.9% Claimant rate: 4.1% Claimant rate: 4.6% Highest claiming ward Hesters Way Highest claiming ward Westgate (8.8%) (8.3%)

COTSWOLD DISTRICT DISTRICT Claim count: 1,067 Claim count: 2,044 Compared to last month: -2.5% Compared to last month: +4.7% Claimant rate: 2.2% Claimant rate: 3.1% Highest claiming ward Highest claiming ward Central Watermoor (5.0%) (7.4%)

FOREST OF DEAN BOROUGH Claim count: 1,784 Claim count: 1,468 Compared to last month: - 4.1% Compared to last month: -1.2% Claimant rate: 3.7% Claimant rate: 3.1% Highest claiming ward West Highest claiming ward Tewkesbury Priors (6.0%) Park (6.7%)

YOUNG PEOPLE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET)

As at the end of May 2009 there were 626 young people aged 16-18 not in education, employment or train- ing in Gloucestershire and this figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 4.3% Unemployment Bulletin Page 3

PART 2: UK, SW AND GLOUCESTERSHIRE INDICATORS The unemployment situation in Gloucestershire compared to the South West and the UK.

Claimant Rate

Figure 1: Claimant Rate for Gloucestershire, the South West and UK over the past year

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0 Rate (%) Rate 1.5 United Kingdom

1.0 South West

0.5 Gloucestershire

0.0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 March April May 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 2009 2009 2009

Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 3.5% in May 2009. The rate has remained slightly higher than the South West average over the past year, but persistently lower by approximately 0.6% against the UK average during the same period. May 2009 represented a 0.1% decrease on April 2009.

Claimant Count Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts Area Claimant Count % change on Average % Consecutive in May 2009 April 2009 increase over the months last six months increasing

UK 1,564,978 +0.5% +5.2% 13

South West 96,527 -0.9% +6.4% 0

Gloucestershire 12,480 -1.7% +7.2% 0

Table 1 shows that in May 2009, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 1.7% lower than the number in April 2009. This is 1.2% lower than the UK figure and 0.8% lower than the South West.

The average growth in claimants in Gloucestershire for the six months to May 2009 was 7.2%. This is 2.0% higher than the UK average and 0.8% higher than the South West region. Unemployment Bulletin Page 4

PART 3: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT ANALYSIS Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 2: Claimant Rate (%) across Gloucestershire - May 2009

5.0 4.5 4.0 Gloucestershire 3.5% 3.5 3.0 % 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 4.1 2.2 3.7 4.6 3.1 3.1 0.0

r d m u a o ury h este b c tr s u S o Cotswold wke st of Dean Gl e Chelten e T For

Figure 2 shows the claimant rate for May 2009 in Gloucestershire. Between April 2009 and May 2009, increased by 0.1%, Cheltenham and Cotswold remained the same and Forest of Dean, Gloucester and Tewkesbury districts all decreased (0.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectfully). Figure 3: Total claimants over the past year across Gloucestershire Districts

13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000

9,000 8,000 7,000 Cotswold

Number Tewkesbury 6,000 Stroud 5,000 Forest of Dean 4,000 3,000 Cheltenham 2,000 1,000 Gloucester 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 2009

Figure 3 shows the overall claimant count by district for Gloucestershire over the past year. It demonstrates that apart from Stroud, the remaining districts have shown a decrease in the number of claimants for the first time in over a year. Unemployment Bulletin Page 5

Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts

Total May 09 May 09 April 09 April 09 Monthly % monthly Monthly change Number Rate Number Rate change change of rate Gloucestershire 12,480 3.5 12,694 3.6 -214 -1.7% -0.1 Cheltenham 2,844 4.1 2,860 4.1 -16 -0.6% 0.0 Cotswold 1,067 2.2 1,094 2.2 -27 -2.5% 0.0 Forest of Dean 1,784 3.7 1,861 3.8 -77 -4.1% -0.1 Gloucester 3,273 4.6 3,441 4.8 -168 -4.9% -0.2 Stroud 2,044 3.1 1,952 3.0 92 4.7% 0.1 Tewkesbury 1,468 3.1 1,486 3.2 -18 -1.2% -0.1 Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in May 2009 compared to April 2009. Every district except Stroud experienced a decrease. The greatest decrease was in Gloucester.

Table 3: Analysis of Male Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts

Male May 09 May 09 April 09 April 09 Monthly % monthly Monthly change Number Rate Number Rate change change of rate Gloucestershire 9,298 5.0 9,435 5.1 -137 -1.5% -0.1 Cheltenham 2,149 5.8 2,165 5.9 -16 -0.7% -0.1 Cotswold 782 3.0 819 3.2 -37 -4.5% -0.2 Forest of Dean 1,291 5.0 1,332 5.2 -41 -3.1% -0.2 Gloucester 2,502 6.8 2,601 7.0 -99 -3.8% -0.2 Stroud 1,517 4.4 1,442 4.2 75 5.2% 0.2 Tewkesbury 1,057 4.3 1,076 4.4 -19 -1.8% -0.1

Table 3 shows the change in the male claimant count in May 2009 compared to April 2009. Again, every district except Stroud experienced a decrease.

Table 4: Analysis of Female Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts

Female May 09 May 09 April 09 April 09 Monthly % monthly Monthly change Number Rate Number Rate change change of rate Gloucestershire 3,182 1.9 3,259 2.0 -77 -2.4% -0.1 Cheltenham 695 2.1 695 2.1 0 0.0% 0.0 Cotswold 285 1.2 275 1.2 10 3.6% 0.0 Forest of Dean 493 2.1 529 2.3 -36 -6.8% -0.2 Gloucester 771 2.3 840 2.5 -69 -8.2% -0.2 Stroud 527 1.7 510 1.6 17 3.3% 0.1 Tewkesbury 411 1.8 410 1.8 1 0.2% 0.0

Table 4 shows the change in the female claimant count in May 2009 compared to April 2009. Gloucester and Forest of Dean experienced a decrease while Cotswold, Stroud and Tewkesbury experienced an increase, with Cheltenham remaining the same. Unemployment Bulletin Page 6 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS This section covers the six districts and a comparison of their constituent wards.

4.1 Cheltenham Borough

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 4: Cheltenham Borough claimant rate over the last year

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

8 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 08 0 08 0 0 0 g v c 0 0 p 0 n 2 2 Jul 08 u e Oct May Jun 08 A S No De Ja Feb 09 rch 2009 ay April M Ma Figure 4 shows the claimant rate in Cheltenham remained the same as last month at 4.1%. The rate had been climbing for twelve consecutive months before levelling. Figure 5: Cheltenham Borough claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change

150.0% 130.0% 110.0% 90.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% -10.0% -30.0% -50.0% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 5 shows the claimant count decreasing in May 2009 after continually increasing each month since July 2008. In addition, the change on the previous year has gone down in May 2009 compared to April 2009. Unemployment Bulletin Page 7 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.1 Cheltenham Borough continued...

Figure 6: Claimant rates across Cheltenham Borough wards - May 2009

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0 5.0 Cheltenham 4.1% 4.0

3.0

2.0 1.0

0.0

k y y e k y n r gs rk r gs l's 's 's e o n u le u k l Pa Pa own n ints er Ki tb er a t s h ed olleg Village Oak e Pittville C n rs W ay lton r St Pa te lton r P Lansdown All S St Mar St Pe s ckhampt ar Battl e Reddi Warden Hill Springban e h ha Up Hat h H Le C C d T Swindo

ll an ha en B Figure 6 shows the claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough of 4.1%. Eight wards lie above the average.

Table 5: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cheltenham Borough ward level - May 2009

District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Cheltenham Leckhampton 1.6 14 first quartile of county Cheltenham Park 1.9 25 second quartile of county Cheltenham 2.0 30 third quartile of county Cheltenham Charlton Park 2.1 35 fourth quartile of county Cheltenham Prestbury 2.1 35 highest 10% of county Cheltenham Up Hatherley 2.1 35 Cheltenham Battledown 2.5 60 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Cheltenham Benhall and The Reddings 2.6 68 Cheltenham Pittville 2.8 72 Cheltenham Warden Hill 3.2 86 Cheltenham College 3.5 93 Cheltenham Lansdown 3.8 97 Cheltenham Swindon Village 4.4 114 Cheltenham All Saints 5.2 122 Cheltenham Springbank 5.2 122 Cheltenham St Paul's 5.3 126 Cheltenham St Mark's 5.9 130 Cheltenham St Peter's 5.9 130 Cheltenham Oakley 7.6 140 Cheltenham Hesters Way 8.8 142 Table 5 shows overall claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 8 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.2 Cotswold District

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 7: Cotswold District claimant rate over the last year

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 08 08 08 0 0 0 0 0 n p v c n 0 b 0 u Jul ug 08 e Oct a e 2 May 08 J A S No De J F rch 2009 April May 20 Ma

Figure 7 shows the claimant rate in Cotswold District decreased in May 2009 to 2.2%. Prior to this the rate had been increasing since June 2008. Figure 8: Cotswold District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change

210.0% 190.0% 170.0% 150.0% 130.0% 110.0% 90.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% -10.0% -30.0% -50.0% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 8 shows the claimant count decreasing in May 2009 after continually increasing since July 2008. The change on the previous year has remained the same in May 2009 as April 2009. Unemployment Bulletin Page 9 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.2 Cotswold District continued...

Figure 9: Claimant rates across Cotswold District wards - May 2009

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0 Cotswold 2.2%

2.0

1.0

0.0

n e n h y r ley w ns t ell de sh o o o al a mi Col w ater o s Ash St ridge Head hl bur m Val d Er Rivers n-V y- e smeet Mar W n r ec et er e on- singt edwor L Blockleyn- T e- t s de ne oss Hampton i h r Beeches re ac p p F Ch Sandy Ri Rive ames Water Park rd- e Chur Th n-t Be am Am Th fo o Grumbol C tton-Whiteway eton- ps ster Wa a on- Cirencestere Park m Mor t rencest Ke ur Ci ter Str Bo s Cirencester ChestertonCirenc

irence C Figure 9 shows the claimant rates for Cotswold District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District of 2.2%. Nine wards lie above the average. Table 6: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cotswold District ward level - May 2009 District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Cotswolds Churn Valley 0.6 1 first quartile of county Cotswolds Grumbolds Ash 0.6 1 second quartile of county Cotswolds Ermin 1.2 5 Cotswolds Three Rivers 1.2 5 third quartile of county Cotswolds Beacon-Stow 1.5 10 fourth quartile of county Cotswolds Northleach 1.5 10 highest 10% of county Cotswolds Ri ssingtons 1.5 10 Cotswolds Campden-Vale 1.6 14 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Cotswolds Ampney-Coln 1.7 17 Cotswolds Avening 1.7 17 Cotswolds Fosseridge 1.7 17 Cotswolds Riversmeet 1.7 17 Cotswolds Chedworth 1.8 21 Cotswolds Hampton 1.9 25 Cotswolds Sandywell 1.9 25 Cotswolds Thames Head 1.9 25 Cotswolds Water Park 1.9 25 Cotswolds Cirencester Stratton-Whiteway 2.2 44 Cotswolds - 2.2 44 Cotswolds 2.3 51 Cotswolds Moreton-in-Marsh 2.4 53 Cotswolds 2.4 53 Cotswolds Bourton-on-the-Water 2.5 60 Cotswolds Fairford 2.5 60 Cotswolds Cirencester Che sterton 2.9 75 Cotswolds Cirencester Beeches 3.3 90 Cotswolds Cirencester Park 3.7 95 Cotswolds Cirencester Watermoor 5.0 121 Table 6 shows overall claimant rates for Cotswold District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 10 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.3

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 10: Forest of Dean District claimant rate over the last year

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

8 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 08 08 08 l 0 09 y 0 n g p 0 c n 0 b 09 0 a u u u e e a e 2 200 J J Oct 08 J F 200 M A S Nov D h ril y rc p A Ma Ma

Figure 10 shows the claimant rate in the Forest of Dean decreased in May 2009 to 3.7%. Before this the rate had been increasing since July 2008. Figure 11: Forest of Dean District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change

170.0% 150.0% 130.0% 110.0% 90.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% -10.0% -30.0% -50.0% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 11 shows the claimant count decreased in May 2009 after continually increasing since May 2008. The change on the previous year has decreased between May 2009 and April 2009 Unemployment Bulletin Page 11 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.3 Forest of Dean District continued...

Figure 12: Claimant rates across Forest of Dean District wards - May 2009

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Forest of Dean 3.7% 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

y y n n e y ls r h l t t r e m p r o ral k a s s o a to o ley n t o ge .. r h s r ve k n o id ort . well tpu ert h tbu ia c Awre r p N o Ea We r b s r i b s ill Bream ent y den ola ma rth EastB B Ce y u P C e Ha i o d o t r ey ford East Berry Hilln Tib T e N h n D n e ford R St is d l ord yd r t d l d y d West o f L e n g we n L n C e d n e a l n an E N n n and R n a o Cinderfordi East d and W d d a a o C C l n e e isdon and Lon g a ld d sfie d Newe e l n wlan h h and Huntl Bla a e rc c ittle Newnham and Wel N u Lydbrook and RuardeanL h Mit Hewe hal tc n, Aylburt n Bromesberrow and Dymock to ris g h Oxe C Alvin Figure 12 shows the claimant rates for Forest of Dean District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District of 3.7%. Thirteen wards lie above the average. Table 7: Analysis of Claimant Count at Forest of Dean District ward level - May 2009

District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Forest Hartpury 0.9 4 first quartile of county Forest Churcham and Huntley 1.4 9 second quartile of county Forest Tibberton 1.5 10 third quartile of county Forest Tidenham 1.6 14 fourth quartile of county Forest Hewelsfield and Woolaston 2.0 30 Forest Blaisdon and Longhope 2.1 35 highest 10% of county Forest Newnham and Westbury 2.1 35 Forest Redmarley 2.1 35 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Forest Oxenhall and North East 2.5 60 Forest Newland and St Briavels 2.8 72 Forest Bromesberrow and Dymock 2.9 75 Forest Christchurch and English Bicknor 3.0 80 Forest Awre 3.4 92 Forest Newent Central 3.7 95 Forest Lydbrook and Ruardean 3.8 97 Forest and Drybrook 3.8 97 Forest Littledean and Ruspidge 3.9 102 Forest North 3.9 102 Forest Alvington, Aylburton and West Lydney 4.0 105 Forest Coleford East 4.0 105 Forest Pillowell 4.1 110 Forest Bream 4.6 117 Forest Coleford Central 4.7 119 Forest Berry Hill 5.5 127 Forest Lydney Ea st 5.6 128 Forest Cinderford Ea st 5.9 130 Forest Cinderford West 6.0 133 Table 7 shows overall claimant rates for the Forest of Dean District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 12 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.4 Gloucester City

Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 13: Gloucester City claimant rate over the last year

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

8 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 08 09 09 y 08 n l v n 0 a u ug ep 0 a 2009 2 J Ju Oct J Feb 09 l 2009 M A S No Dec 08 h ri y c p A Ma Mar

Figure 13 shows the claimant rate for Gloucester City decreased in May 2009 to 4.6%. The rate prior to this had been increasing since May 2008. Figure 14: Gloucester City claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change

130.0% 110.0% 90.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% -10.0% -30.0% -50.0% May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 14 shows the monthly claimant count decreased in May 2009 by 4.9% after undergoing a continual increase since the previous May. The change on the previous year has decreased between April 2009 and May 2009. Unemployment Bulletin Page 13 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.4 Gloucester City continued...

Figure 15: Claimant rates across Gloucester City wards - May 2009

9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Gloucester 4.6% 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

e y e le od te o land ood evens ecot Abbey n Val bridge Tuff nw dcourt ngl er m Grange ar el nsw uccl v B More Westga Lo e El Fi obi Podsmead H y R

dgele ue Q son and Barton and Tredworth S Kingsholm and Wotton at M

Figure 15 shows the claimant rates for Gloucester City district wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the City of 4.6%. Six wards lie above the average.

Table 8: Analysis of Claimant Count at Gloucester City ward level - May 2009 District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Glouce ster Longlevens 2.1 35 first quartile of county Glouce ster Hucclecote 2.3 51 Glouce ster Abbey 2.4 53 second quartile of county Glouce ster Quedgeley Severn Vale 2.5 60 third quartile of county Glouce ster Elmbridge 3.1 85 fourth quartile of county Glouce ster Grange 3.6 94 highest 10% of county Glouce ster Tuffley 4.0 105 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Glouce ster Barnwood 4.4 114 Glouce ster Kingsholm and Wotton 4.6 117 Glouce ster Quedgeley Fieldcourt 5.2 122 Glouce ster Moreland 6.4 134 Glouce ster Matson and Robinswood 6.7 135 Glouce ster Barton and Tredworth 7.1 137 Glouce ster Podsmead 7.4 138 Glouce ster Westgate 8.3 141 Table 8 shows overall claimant rates for Gloucester City wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 14 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.5 Stroud District Claimant Rate and Claimant Count

Figure 16: Stroud District claimant rate over the last year

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 08 0 0 0 0 09 09 0 n g v 00 y p ct 0 n 2 u Jul 08 O a 20 Ma J Au Se No Dec 0 J Feb h y rc a April 2009 Ma M

Figure 16 shows the claimant rate for Stroud District was at 3.1%, the highest it has been for over two years. Figure 17: Stroud District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change

210.0% 190.0% 170.0% 150.0% 130.0% 110.0% 90.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% -10.0% -30.0% -50.0% May Jul Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 17 shows that when compared to the same month in the previous year, the claimant count has been increasing since July 2008. The May 2009 figure was 196% higher than it was in May 2008. Unemployment Bulletin Page 15 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY AND DISTRICT ANALYSIS

4.5 Stroud District continued... Figure 18: Claimant rates across Stroud District wards - May 2009

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Stroud 3.1% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

l k d e ll ty c pp ey or sh ys ton ey de u Ul roud e icke p Vale dg oss ini la ough w E anhi cr S entra Bisley SevernThr half St or ndi anl - West plands Vall Tr gswoodC a er ag U ns C and in St St Berkeleyam Painswi odb Cam EastHard nham C oodchesterey K Over R hi StonehouseCai W and The nc and P oal i ton-und ll C on M ot hi gt Upton St Leonards m in W Far East Amberley and Figure 18 shows the claimant rates in Stroud District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District of 3.1% and eleven wards are above the average. Table 9: Analysis of Claimant Count at Stroud District ward level - May 2009 District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Stroud Bisley 0.8 3 Stroud 1.3 7 first quartile of county Stroud Severn 2.0 30 second quartile of county Stroud Thrupp 2.0 30 third quartile of county Stroud Amberley and Woodchester 2.2 44 fourth quartile of county Stroud Coaley and Uley 2.2 44 Stroud Kingswood 2.2 44 highest 10% of county Stroud Chalford 2.4 53 Stroud Over Stroud 2.4 53 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Stroud Rodborough 2.4 53 Stroud Ea stington and Standish 2.5 60 Stroud The Stanleys 2.5 60 Stroud Cam East 2.6 68 Stroud Hardwicke 2.6 68 Stroud 2.9 75 Stroud Upton St Leonards 2.9 75 Stroud Nailsworth 3.0 80 Stroud Vale 3.0 80 Stroud Wotton-under-Edge 3.0 80 Stroud Berkeley 3.2 86 Stroud Cam West 3.3 90 Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill 3.8 97 Stroud Uplands 3.8 97 Stroud Stonehouse 3.9 102 Stroud Cainscross 4.0 105 Stroud Valley 4.1 110 Stroud Trinity 4.4 114 Stroud Dursley 4.7 119 Stroud Slade 5.7 129 Stroud Central 7.4 138 Table 9 shows overall claimant rates for Stroud District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 16 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS

4.6 Tewkesbury District Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 19: Tewkesbury District claimant rate over the last year

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

8 8 8 8 9 9 08 08 09 l 08 0 u g t 0 un J eb 2009 20 2009 J Au Sep 0 Oc Nov 0 Dec 08 Jan 0 F h y May 0 ril a Ap M Marc

Figure 19 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury District decreased to 3.1% in May 2009, after having risen for over a year.

Figure 20: Tewkesbury District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change

170.0% 150.0% 130.0% 110.0% 90.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% -10.0% -30.0% -50.0% May Jul Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 08 08 08 08

% change on previous month % change on previous year

Figure 20 shows that claimant count decreased in May 2009 by 1.2% after continually increasing since June 2008. The rate in May 2009 figure was 148% higher than it was in May 2008. Unemployment Bulletin Page 17 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY AND DISTRICT ANALYSIS

4.6 Tewkesbury District continued... Figure 21: Claimant rates across Tewkesbury District wards - May 2009

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Tewkesbury 3.1% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

d ill ill n s n y 's h k ge H w n' iff o a l on r d fiel H Hill h d w itt a range ri West n to e o P B ve o w b rth e eworth e t J dingt M r's cclecote Isbourne rook le g nt hcombe m Twyning r o h u ve G B e c HatherleyN o S N it H e C x n ry o n lton Car Brockwort w Haw Cleeve Bad O C w a Shu St Michae n le Win w bu o e C ith own s d W w d Do e o ury Prio w k ch T b m rch w r y es a u e u with Cleev ur k n h with T h h h h C rc b w C u s e ig ke T H w e shch T Innswort A

Figure 21 shows the claimant rates in Tewkesbury District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District of 3.1% and seven wards are above the average.

Table 10: Analysis of Claimant Count at Tewkesbury District level - May 2009 District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Tewkesbury Hucclecote 1.3 7 first quartile of county Tewkesbury Cleeve Grange 1.8 21 second quartile of county Tewkesbury Highnam with Haw Bridge 1.8 21 third quartile of county Tewkesbury Isbourne 1.8 21 fourth quartile of county Tewkesbury Churchdown Brookfield 2.0 30 Tewkesbury Cleeve Hill 2.1 35 highest 10% of county Tewkesbury Cleeve West 2.1 35 Tewkesbury Badgeworth 2.2 44 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Tewkesbury Oxenton Hill 2.2 44 Tewkesbury 2.4 53 Tewkesbury Innsworth with Down Hatherley 2.5 60 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Newtown 2.7 71 Tewkesbury Coombe Hill 2.8 72 Tewkesbury Twyning 2.9 75 Tewkesbury Churchdown St John's 3.0 80 Tewkesbury Ashchurch with Walton Cardiff 3.2 86 Tewkesbury Shurdington 3.2 86 Tewkesbury Northway 4.0 105 Tewkesbury Cleeve St Michael's 4.1 110 Tewkesbury Brockworth 4.3 113 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Town with Mitton 5.2 122 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Prior's Park 6.7 135 Table 10 shows overall claimant rates for Tewkesbury District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 18 PART 5: MAP SHOWING DISTRIBUTION OF CLAIMANT RATE ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE Unemployment Bulletin Page 19 PART 5: MAP SHOWING DISTRIBUTION OF CLAIMANT RATE ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE

Unemployment Bulletin Page 20 PART 6: YOUNG PEOPLE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET) IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE Data provided by Prospects, the Connexions service in Gloucestershire on the situation of young people (16-18) in Gloucestershire who are not in education, employment or formal training.

Connexions Gloucestershire is required to report performance with the 16-18 age range against nationally defined criteria for counting the NEET group. The NEET group includes young people actively seeking education, employment or training as well as those young people who are either not yet ready or who are unable to access these opportunities because of their personal circumstances. The figures quoted below include young people in both of these categories.

SUMMARY

As at the end of May 2009 there were 626 young people aged 16-18 not in education, employment or training in Gloucestershire and this figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 4.3%. This figure is a slight improvement on Aprils NEET rate of 4.4% and we are pleased to report that five out of the six districts have seen the numbers of young people in the NEET group reduce during May, with the sharpest decrease being in Tewkesbury (down from 4.2% in April). We are now hoping to see this positive performance continue into June and July and are working closely with partners to identify, target and support ‘potential’ NEETs from this years school leavers.

Total NEET Group by District Area 31st May 2009 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Total 158 NEET Group 60 77 177 100 54 626(*)

% NEET of

total 16-18 6.9% 2.6% 3.1 3.8% 3.7% 2.9% 4.3%(*) cohort

County NEET action plan

The NEET partnership forum met in May to review and update the NEET action plan for Gloucestershire. A number of amendments have been made to the plan to reflect the current economic climate and the forum also approved the establishment of subgroups to drive forward the key actions contained in the plan. The revised action plan will shortly be on the GCC website.

NEET workshops

During September, as part of our campaign to support young people with the impact of the recession, there will be a series of district based workshops for key stakeholders and partners. The workshops will be an informal opportunity for professionals working with young people to meet and share ideas and approaches to help re-engage young people into positive outcomes. It is widely understood that both the ‘partnership approach’ to reducing NEET and the collective ownership of the causes of why young people become NEET are the key aspects of a successful NEET strategy. More details of these events will follow.

If you would like to receive any further information on Gloucestershire’s NEET strategy then please contact [email protected] or telephone 01452 426900

(*) Adjustment includes a proportion of young people aged 16-18 whose outcomes are not-known to Connexions Gloucestershire