Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence to Defuse Ambiguity on China
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Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence © 2020 IAI to Defuse Ambiguity on China by Dario Cristiani ISSN 2532-6570 In September 2019, the once anti- The PD is a solidly pro-Atlanticist party establishment Five Star Movement in Italy. The M5S, despite its evolution (Movimento Cinque Stelle – M5S) towards greater pragmatism over the agreed to enter a ruling alliance years, remains a source of concern, with the Democratic Party (Partito being still perceived as the most pro- Democratico – PD).1 By establishing China actor within the Italian political this “yellow-red” coalition government landscape. with what was considered its political nemesis, the M5S managed to preserve In the previous coalition government, its presence in power and avoid early which saw the M5S partner with the elections. However, its influence right-wing and anti-migrant League gradually weakened, as attested to by party, foreign policy was posited to be poor performances in local elections. one important area of discontinuity. While little concrete change was The M5S’s declining political fortunes implemented during its 14-months and the changing composition of the in power, certain actions did give a government have a significant foreign number of Italian allies the impression policy dimension, especially if addressed that Rome’s policy was indeed shifting.2 through the lens of Italy–US relations. 2 Ferdinando Nelli Feroci, “The ‘Yellow-Green’ 1 In the coalition there are also two smaller Government’s Foreign Policy”, in IAI Papers, parties, the centrist Italia Viva and the leftist No. 19|10 (April 2019), https://www.iai.it/en/ Liberi e Uguali. node/10293. Dario Cristiani is IAI/GMF Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) in Washington DC and Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome. This IAI Commentary is produced in the framework of the 2019–2020 IAI-GMF Fellowship IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 98 - DECEMBER 2020 IAI COMMENTARIES on Italian foreign and defence policy. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author. 1 Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence to Defuse Ambiguity on China The most significant – and, for The killing of Islamic Revolutionary many traditional allies, alarming – Guard Corps (IRGC) major general development came when Italy became Qasem Soleimani by a US drone strike the first G7 country to endorse China’s in Baghdad on 3 January brought the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) signing region on the brink of war. For Italy, a controversial Memorandum of which had the most extensive Western Understanding (MoU) in March 2019. troop presence in Iraq after that of the US, this development triggered a heated © 2020 IAI US politicians and media did nothing domestic debate. to hide their concern. In Italy, the agreement was never seen as an Criticism from Lucia Annunziata, the attempt to shift traditional alliances but former editor-in-chief of Huffington rather as a way to open a new channel Post Italia, and a journalist with in- with a major economic player such as depth knowledge of the US, was China, in line with Rome’s traditionally particularly revealing. In highlighting versatile approach to foreign policy. how US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had phoned officials worldwide after ISSN 2532-6570 The optics were different, however. the Soleimani killing, but not Italy, she China quickly began presenting called for the resignation of foreign the MoU as a ground-breaking deal, minister Di Maio.3 the beginning of a process of Italy’s gradual detachment from its traditional The M5S responded harshly, stressing alliances. The M5S – and especially that Pompeo had only called the P5+1 the then deputy Prime Minister and countries (China, France, Russia, the Minister of Economic Development United Kingdom and Germany) that Luigi Di Maio – were perceived as having had negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, been decisive in pushing through the which explained Rome’s absence.4 MoU, thus exacerbating concerns that However, Pompeo later also reached the M5S might indeed promote a shift out to other countries: Turkey, the in Italian foreign policy. As Di Maio was United Arab Emirates, Israel, Qatar and appointed new Foreign Affairs minister India all received calls, but phone lines in the coalition government with the in Italy again remained silent. PD in September 2019, this ambiguity, and some contradictions, inevitably The first, official contact between the came into the spotlight. two administrations over Iraq only happened on 7 January, when then US The yellow-red coalition immediately Secretary of Defence, Mark T. Esper, faced an unprecedented number of called his Italian homolog, Lorenzo foreign policy challenges: mounting tensions in Iraq and the broader Gulf 3 Lucia Annunziata, “Cercasi ministro degli area, deteriorating conditions in Libya Esteri a tempo pieno”, in Huffington Post, 4 and then the outbreak of the COVID-19 January 2020, https://www.huffingtonpost.it/ pandemic. entry/it_5e10d21be4b0843d36131b7f. 4 MoVimento 5 Stelle, “Cercasi giornalista”, in Il Blog delle Stelle, 5 January 2020, https://www. ilblogdellestelle.it/?p=62837. IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 98 - DECEMBER 2020 IAI COMMENTARIES 2 Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence to Defuse Ambiguity on China Guerini, from the PD.5 The dominant While it is undeniable that the perception in Washington was that M5S and its foreign policy have Esper’s outreach to a minister from the drastically evolved, in Washington PD conveyed a message that the US still many still perceived its approach as a lacked full trust in the M5S. A political being characterized by a blanket of “spite”, someone caustically remarked ambiguity with incoherent foreign in DC during those days. policy statements, dependent more on personal views and ideas than on a © 2020 IAI The choice of Guerini as the first structured, consistent and predictable interlocutor was not casual. The US approach. The BRI MoU represented, establishment rightly assumes the PD and still represents, a significant burden to be a reliable Atlanticist party within in this sense. the Italian political landscape. Moreover, during the past year, a The PD’s positions under the present number of Di Maio’s positions raised coalition government did indeed live eyebrows abroad: for instance the up to US expectations: from the push initial no-interference approach over ISSN 2532-6570 on tightening rules on 5G, driven Hong Kong,10 or stressing how, as the by the PD-run defence ministry6 in COVID-19 crisis was raging, Italy’s contraposition to M5S views;7 to the decision to sign onto China’s BRI commitment to international missions choice had paid off.11 and F-35 acquisitions8 as well as vocal criticism of China’s handling of the The M5S’s evolution, and the shifting global pandemic.9 stances and ideas held by the Italian foreign minister did not go unnoticed 5 Pietro Salvatori, “Primo contatto con in Washington.12 Yet, the perception gli americani. Esper ringrazia Guerini”, is that this evolution is more personal in Huffington Post, 7 January 2020, https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/ than representative of the movement. it_5e14c962c5b687c7eb5c85c3. US policymakers still perceive the 6 “La Cina e la tecnologia 5G Il ministro della M5S’s Atlanticist commitment as Difesa Guerini mette in guardia dai rischi per questionable. The party’s recent la sicurezza del Paese”, in Il Messaggero, 23 December 2019, https://www.ilmessaggero.it/ cacophony over Hong Kong and China, politica/la_sicurezza_nazionale_e_la_banda_ the fact that M5S deputies abstained larga-4944770.html. 7 “5G, Patuanelli: Huawei offre soluzioni e prezzi migliori. Esplode la polemica”, in RaiNews, 10 “Di Maio: Non interferiamo su Hong Kong”, 22 December 2019, http://www.rainews.it/dl/ in Ansa, 5 November 2019, https://www.ansa.it/ rainews/articoli/amp/ContentItem-05e16ac6- sito/notizie/topnews/2019/11/05/di-maio-non- 4baf-4940-a705-d4b4d7b2ea50.html. interferiamo-su-hong-kong_4019d8ee-ebf1- 8 Alessandro Marrone, “Difesa: le scelte del 4d3b-96dc-c19a16e7155f.html. ministro Guerini, quando il gioco si fa duro”, in 11 Luigi Di Maio ospite a TG2 Post Rai 2, 24 AffarInternazionali, 2 November 2019, https:// March 2020, https://youtu.be/0W7JRf6qaog. www.affarinternazionali.it/?p=76267. 12 Francesco Bechis and Valeria Covato, “From 9 Valerio Valentini, “‘La Cina? L’Italia non Coronavirus to Mediterranean Tensions, Italy si opporrà a un’indagine sull’origine del Has Stepped up Its Diplomatic Game during virus’. Parla il ministro Amendola”, in Il Dramatic Year, Foreign Minister Says”, in New Foglio, 7 May 2020, https://www.ilfoglio.it/ Atlanticist, 10 September 2020, https://www. politica/2020/05/07/news/316991. atlanticcouncil.org/?p=295367. IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 98 - DECEMBER 2020 IAI COMMENTARIES 3 Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence to Defuse Ambiguity on China from a European Parliament resolution Trump.15 However, in Washington, stigmatising the Russian government the delayed contact was not seen as for its alleged involvement in the a major issue, and the relationship poisoning of dissident Alexei Navalny with the outgoing administration is and the many shifting positions on not considered as something that other issues have not helped to counter can damage, at a strategic level, Italy’s this perception. relations with the new administration. Yet, there will be some adjustments. © 2020 IAI The positions of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the other main At a more immediate level, the PD will government figure from the M5S, also be even more central than it has been did little to alleviate these broader so far in shaping relations with the US, concerns. Conte’s pro-Atlanticist views not only because of common views have become more pronounced as and a shared political culture, but also of late. However, he has never been due to the intensity of the personal ties perceived to be fully representative of between it and US Democrats.