CrossCross--borderborder tradetrade andand transporttransport infrastructureinfrastructure developmentdevelopment inin NEANEA

By:By: Prof.Prof. GotovGotov Dugerjav,Dugerjav, Dr.ScDr.Sc ContentsContents

— NEA and cooperation — Mongolia’s Macroeconomic Review — Brief description of the Eastern Mongolia — Infrastructure capacity review — Future Development Potential (on- going/planned megaprojects, traffic forecasts) — Road and Rail Transport corridors — Conclusions and Recommendations

Gotov Dugerjav 2 I. NEA and Mongolia cooperation

Gotov Dugerjav 3 NEANEA cooperationcooperation

Northeast Asia : • 3 of the world’s major powers, • 2 of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council, and • 2 of the largest economies of the world • 2 of the BRIC’s countries.

It is also a home to one of the world’s hottest flash points. The situation in the sub-region remains fragile, although it is relatively stable. Gotov Dugerjav 4 BasisBasis ofof CooperationCooperation

This area of the World includes countries with very diverse political and economic conditions. The basis of an international economic cooperation framework could be a combination of rich mineral resources of Mongolia and investment capital and advanced technology from South Korea and Japan, as well as a considerable pool of workforce from (PRC) and North Korea.

Gotov Dugerjav 5 MongoliaMongolia’’ss foreignforeign tradetrade withwith NEA,NEA, millionmillion USDUSD

Export Import 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

Total 1888 385.1 2 908 502.2 4 780 350.5 2 137 673.5 3 200 053.3 6 526 882.4

NEA 1 414 023 2 499 662.6 4 449 328.7 794 553.8 1 355 282.5 2 851 436.7

DPRK - 25.5 - 47.1 798.5 740.0

ROK 15 458.1 30 519.9 1 896.1 155 102.2 181 781.9 350 648.5

PRC 1 393 906.7 2 466 265.5 4 400 735.7 538 582.6 970 976.0 2 007 572.2

Taiwan 94.0 182.0 10.0 3 768.4 5 238.1 8 966.5

Japan 4 564.2 2 669.7 10 694.6 97 053.5 196 488.0 483 509.5

Source: National Statistical Office, Mongolia

Gotov Dugerjav 6 II. Mongolia’s economy

Gotov Dugerjav 7 GDPGDP growth,growth, MongoliaMongolia

Spurred By: — Development of large coal, copper and gold mining projects; — Continued strong flows of FDI doubled between 2010 and 2011; — Public investment being raised; — Strong consumer demand due to disbursement of cash to the citizens.

Gotov Dugerjav 8 InfrastructureInfrastructure capacitycapacity reviewreview

Summary Transportation Statistics for Mongolia

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Freight (Thousand tones) 23,281.6 23,904.4 24,729.7 29,415.9 43,956.6 By Rail 14,072.6 14,646.9 14,164.5 16,753.2 18,327.4 By Road 9,207.1 9,255.7 10,563.8 12,610.2 25,635.3 By Air 1,887.2 1,847.0 1,369.3 1,641.6 2,930.9

Freight (Million TKM) 9,030.2 9,051.4 8,981.3 12,106.4 16,300.2 By Rail 8,360.7 8,261.4 7,817.0 10,286.7 11,382.2 By Road 661.9 782.1 1,160.7 1,834.0 4,910.3 By Air 7,720.6 7,926.5 3,666.7 4,169.5 7,708.6

Passengers (Million) 209.9 231.6 232.4 250.7 296.2 By Rail 4.5 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 By Road 205.0 226.9 229.0 246.7 291.8 By Air 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6

Passengers (Million PKM) 3,263.1 3,607.3 3,173.1 3,607.4 4,696.1 By Rail 1,406.4 1,400.5 1,003.1 1,220.0 1,400.1 By Road 869.7 1,215.0 1,535.9 1,480.2 2,321.8 By Air 987.1 991.9 634.1 907.2 974.1

Source: Mongolia Statistical Yearbook 2011, National Statistical Office, 2011

Gotov Dugerjav 9 BriefBrief descriptiondescription ofof thethe EasternEastern MongoliaMongolia

Gotov Dugerjav 10 SharesShares toto totaltotal GDPGDP

Share to total GDP, Eastern 100% aimags 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011

Agriculture Industry Services

Gotov Dugerjav 11 III. Current situation of Transport corridors in Mongolia and NEA

Gotov Dugerjav 12 MillenniumMillennium RoadRoad RoutesRoutes

Source: Ministry of Roads, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development, Mongolia

Gotov Dugerjav 13 MainMain MongoliaMongolia RoadRoad CorridorsCorridors

Route 1 (GTI Road corridor- 1a among the studied trans- GTR transport corridors): Ulaanbaatar- Undurkaan- - Sumber- Nomrog. This route will be constructed in the framework of the Millennium Road in nearest future.

Route 2: Altanbulag-Darkan-Ulaanbaatar-Choir- - Zamyn Uud This route is being built now and will be completed in 2013. The development plans for the route include implementation of an international highway construction project.

Gotov Dugerjav 14 RoadRoad conditionsconditions inin thethe RoadRoad CorridorCorridor--1a1a

Earth road between Choibalsan and Sumber (Nomrog) Earth road between Undurkhaan and Choibalsan (324 km ) Paved road between Ulaanbaatar and Undurkhaan (331 km)

Gotov Dugerjav 15 TransportTransport NetworkNetwork inin EasternEastern MongoliaMongolia

Types of Roads in Eastern Mongolia Road Distances in Eastern Mongolia

Type of Road State (Km) State (%) Local (Km) Local (%) From To Distance (Km)

Paved 546 15.6 215 3.0 Ulaanbaatar Ondorhaan 331 Ondorhaan Baruun Urt 229 Gravel 556 15.9 57 0.8 Ondorhaan Choibalsan 324 Improved Earth 305 8.7 7 0.1 Choibalsan Baruun Urt 191

Earth 2,095 59.8 6,876 96.1 Choibalsan Ereentsav 240 Choibalsan Khavirga Port 135 Total 3,502 100.0 7,155 100.0 Choibalsan Tamsagbulag 200

Gotov Dugerjav 16 MainMain MongoliaMongolia RailRail CorridorsCorridors

Rail Corridor 1: Suhbaatar--Ulaanbaatar-Sainshand-Zamyn Uud (existing main line);

Rail Corridor 2: Ukhaa Hudag (Tavantogoi)- Zuunbayan- Sainshand- Baruun Urt-Khuut-Choibalsan- Ereentsav; The section ”Uhaa Hudag-Zuunbayan-Sainshand-Khuut- Choibalsan” is going to built within 2.5 years. Therefore, the existing section between Choibalsan and Ereentsav needs to be upgraded.

Rail Corridor 3 (GTI Rail Corridor -1b among the studied trans- GTR transport corridors): Ukhaa Khudag-Zuunbayan-Sainshand- Khuut- Tansagbulag- Sumber BCP (Nomrog bridge). The section of Rail line “Ukhaa Khudag-Zuunbayan-Khuut” will be built under the route 2. Thus, the new construction of the section between Khuut and Nomrog with total length of 338 km would be main focus area under GTI Transport Corridors Project.

Gotov Dugerjav 17 CarryingCarrying capacitycapacity ofof thethe MainMain railrail lineline

Gotov Dugerjav 18 ZAMYN UUD BCP q Besides petroleum products 90%- of the total import q 75% of the total export pass through Zamyn Uud BCP q Transit traffic is significant as well. Year/traffic 2007 2008 2009 2010 Imports (tons) 728,056 1,232,829 668,489 870,744 Exports (tons) 34,257 52,719 74,260 75,651 Trucks inward 18,919 34,501 21,446 19,190 Trucks outward 18,106 34,302 21,152 17,453 Cars in/out 80,634/81,659 95,350/95,059 98,493/99,246 116,089/104,844 Passengers in 750,000/766,000 809,000/810,000 698,000/702,000 861,000/863,000 and out figures rounded

Gotov Dugerjav 19 NewNew logisticslogistics centercenter inin ZamynZamyn UudUud

Gotov Dugerjav 20 MongoliaMongolia andand NEANEA transportationtransportation connectionsconnections

Gotov Dugerjav 21 BorderBorder crossingcrossing pointspoints BetweenBetween

- Border crossing point MongoliaMongolia andand ChinaChina

Gotov Dugerjav 22 IV. Railway Plans in Mongolia

Gotov Dugerjav 23 MongoliaMongolia’’ss railwayrailway policypolicy

Gotov Dugerjav 24 NewNew railwayrailway constructionconstruction phasesphases

Phase II: Phase III: Western Vertical Khuut - Corridor Numrug

Phase II: Phase I: - Khuut - Tavantolgoi –Tsagaan Bichigt Suvarga-Sainshand- Baruun Urt-Khuut- Choibalsan

Phase II: Nariin Sukhait - Phase I: Ukhaa Shiveekhuran Khudag - Gashuun Sukhait

Under construction (Samsung)

Gotov Dugerjav 25 PlannedPlanned RailRail networksnetworks inin EasternEastern aimagsaimags ofof MongoliaMongolia

Gotov Dugerjav 26 ApplicableApplicable legallegal frameworksframeworks

Road sector legal and regulatory framework: — Between Mongolia and PRC : Road Transportation Agreement between the People’s Republic of China and Mongolia on June 24, 1991; — Between Mongolia and Russian Federation: International Road Transportation Agreement between Russian Federation and Mongolia on February 07, 1996. Railway sector: The applicable laws of a specific nature applying to the railway subsector as a whole are: — 1996 Law on Railway Safety (1996 Law); — the Law on Railway Transport (LRT); — Parliamentary Resolution approving the establishment of Mongolian Railway Authority (MRA); — MoRTT (now MRTCUD) Regulation dated February 2, 2005 Amendment 2; and — Law of Government Inspection 2003. The applicable agreements of a specific nature applying to the railway subsector as a whole are: — the 1949 Agreement between Russia and Mongolia on the Establishment of the Ulaanbaatar Railway Joint Stock Company (UBTZ) and its protocols (1949 Agreement), and — Multi-Lateral Agreements on Rail Transit Transportation: – the Border Railway Agreement between Mongolia and Russia, 1953; – the Border Railway Agreement between Mongolia and PRC, 1954; and – the Border Railway Agreement between Mongolia, Russia and PRC, 1956.

Gotov Dugerjav 27 V. Traffic demand

Gotov Dugerjav 28 Review of on-going/planned economic development projects likely to impact future traffic

— 1/ Tavan Tolgoi (TT) coal mine project. In 2020, volume of the unprocessed products of the mine would be 67.7 million tons. s: — 2/ Nariin Sukhait (NS) coal mine project. In 2020, volume of the unprocessed products of the mine would be 30.5 million tons. — 3/ Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper mine project. Expected production volume is 2.1 million tons of copper concentrate.

Gotov Dugerjav 29 TrafficTraffic andand TransportTransport demanddemand forecastingforecasting

Years Growth rate GDP/capita traffic elasticity Growth percentage

GDP Population GDP/capita Passenger Freight traffic Passenger Freight traffic (IEp) (IEf) traffic traffic 2015 7.7 2.0 5.7 1.75 1.39 25.2 10.70 2020 7.0 2.0 5.0 1.62 1.35 23.5 9.45 2025 7.0 2.0 5.0 1.35 1.15 19.9 8.05

Traffic forecast diagram between Choibalsan and Sumber BCP (Nomrog bridge)

Gotov Dugerjav 30 DemandDemand forfor coalcoal inin NortheastNortheast Asia,Asia, millionmillion tonstons perper year,year, 20202020

Gotov Dugerjav 31 CoalCoal andand coppercopper marketsmarkets inin AsianAsian countriescountries

Gotov Dugerjav 32 PotentialPotential marketsmarkets ofof MongoliaMongolia’’ss mineralsminerals

Gotov Dugerjav 33 CoalCoal extractionextraction estimatesestimates perper year,year, 20202020

Gotov Dugerjav 34 CoalCoal traffictraffic forecast,forecast, 20102010--10201020 (thousand(thousand tons)tons)

Gotov Dugerjav 35 PossiblePossible routesroutes forfor coalcoal transportationtransportation fromfrom TavanTavan TolgoiTolgoi coalfieldcoalfield

Gotov Dugerjav 36 PossiblePossible routesroutes forfor coalcoal transportationtransportation fromfrom TavanTavan TolgoiTolgoi coalfieldcoalfield

Gotov Dugerjav 37 MineralMineral transportationtransportation flow,flow, millionmillion tonstons

Gotov Dugerjav 38 TrafficTraffic flowflow forecastsforecasts (coal)(coal) inin 2020,2020, millionmillion tonestones

Gotov Dugerjav 39 CopperCopper transportationtransportation demand,demand, 20202020

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Gotov Dugerjav 40 IronIron oreore transportationtransportation forecast,forecast, 20202020

Gotov Dugerjav 41 CoalCoal transportationtransportation estimatesestimates fromfrom KhuutKhuut toto SumberSumber BCPBCP (Nomrog)(Nomrog)

According to our estimates, 15.2 million tons coal would be delivered mainly to Chinese market. However, some shares of the coal would be exported to Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan as well.

On the basis of the interviews’ of officers from the freight forwarders, transport operators and railway specialists, we assume that very rough shares would be as follows:

Eastern China: 10.6 million tons (70%) per year ROK: 2.3 million tons (15%) per year Japan: 2.3 million tons (15%) per year.

Gotov Dugerjav 42 MarginMargin fromfrom thethe CoalCoal export,export, USDUSD

Margin from Mongolian coking coal export to China

Extraction Transpor Extractor’ Price of Washing Washin Rail Rail cost Trader’s Trader’s SPOT -tation by s extractor cost g loss cost to to cost margin price in trucks to profit Baotou Tanshani China the border

Possible profit margin from Mongolian coking coal export

Gotov Dugerjav 43 VI. Tourism development in Eastern Mongolia

Gotov Dugerjav 44 NaturalNatural andand CulturalCultural SitesSites inin thethe EasternEastern aimagsaimags ofof MongoliaMongolia

Source: TERA Consultant

Gotov Dugerjav 45 TourismTourism ProductsProducts forfor EasternEastern MongoliaMongolia

Tourism Resources Existing and Potential Potential Market Segments By Products Activity Unique steppe flora and fauna, Steppe and Flora Tours Ecotourism, education, photography, and especially Mongolian gazelle research Unique landscapes and lakes of Adventure 4WD Safari Tours Hard and Soft adventure travel based on Sukhbaatar and Dornod Aimags walking, climbing, riding, swimming, fishing, photogrpahy, and visits to herdsmen's ger camps Historic and archeological sites of Archeological Discovery Culture, research, education, and ecotourism the Mongols and other groups in Tours Hentii, Dornod, and Sukhbaatar Culture of nomadic herdsmen and Soft Adventure, Sightseeing Sightseeing and photography based on visits unique steppe landscape Tours to herdsmen; optional horseback riding tours and hiking tours Buir, Ganga, and Sumiin Steppe Lake Resort Facilities; Rest, relaxation, entertainment, and medical lakes Fishing Tours treatments; special interest in freshwater fishing Hunting Areas at Khenti- Hunting Expeditions Hunting Segments Batashreet, Dornod-Bayan Uul, Dornod-- Sumber, and Sukhbaatar Unique Landscapes, flora and Incentive Tours Team building exercises in unique fauna, lakes environment: horseback riding, paragliding, survival games Unique Landscapes, flora and Caravan Tours Hard and Soft adventure travel based on fauna, lakes, and nomadic lifestyle camping, visiting herdsmen’s gers, photography

Source: Marketing and Product Development; UNDP; WTO Project RAS/00/088; Madrid 2002

Gotov Dugerjav 46 MapMap ofof TourismTourism RouteRoute

Gotov Dugerjav 47 WeaknessesWeaknesses RelatedRelated toto PoorPoor InfrastructureInfrastructure

According to the JICA Study, the ease of moving tourists to and from points of interest and to satisfy their basic needs is a fundamental prerequisite for tourism development. Unfortunately, Mongolia has significant deficiencies in this regard. These deficiencies include:

•Poor Access – this is considered to be one of the biggest constraints for tourism in Mongolia. Improvement in international access in particular was cited as a key need in the sector, along with selective improvement in roads.

• Poor Public and Private Infrastructure – Inadequate infrastructure such as telecommunications and hotels that are not built for those seeking higher standards of comfort were listed as areas for selective upgrading.

Gotov Dugerjav 48 MapMap ofof thethe constructedconstructed andand proposedproposed locationslocations ofof thethe NomrogNomrog bridgebridge

GPS reading: E119’28’24o N47’19’40o

Gotov Dugerjav 49 NomrogNomrog riverriver bridgebridge (Sumber(Sumber BCP)BCP)

Gotov Dugerjav 50 VII. Potential Transport Corridors

Gotov Dugerjav 51 TransTrans--GTIGTI corridorscorridors

Rail link to modernize Missing road

Absent rail link

Gotov Dugerjav 52 MajorMajor bottlenecksbottlenecks alongalong thethe transtrans--GTIGTI corridorscorridors

Source: Final report of the GTI transport corridors

Gotov Dugerjav 53 InvestmentInvestment programsprograms

— Feasibility studies, design and construction Railway section between Khuut and Sumber (Nomrog) BCP (FS cost: 1.2 million USD);

— Feasibility study, detailed design and construction of paved road between Choibalsan city vicinity and Sumber (Nomrog) BCP (FS:300 thousand USD).

— Upgrading Rail section between Choibalsan and Ereentsav including replacement of existing wooden sleepers with concrete ones, introducing modern signalization system and electrification.

Gotov Dugerjav 54 VIII. Conclusions

Gotov Dugerjav 55 ConclusionsConclusions andand recommendations:recommendations:

Ø The Halkgol (Sumber) - Rashaan BCPs (Rail Corridor 1b) connection through the Nomrog Bridge seems to be the most cost-effective and feasible connection between Mongolia and NEA especially between Mongolia and PRC, at this time for further development of the tourism sector in both countries.

Ø Due to environmental considerations on both sides of the border, however, it is recommended that this bridge is only used for ecotourism and environmental protection related activities and all the other freight traffic should be carried through another route to be developed further north, away from the Nomrog SPA.

Ø Even though significant mineral resources exist in the Project Area, it will be very difficult to attract private sector investors without building the basic transportation and other required infrastructure. With the exception of some megaprojects, such as the Tavantolgoi (coal mine with proven reserves of 6 billion tons of coking coal) and Oyu Tolgoi (copper and gold mine) Project, it is very unlikely that mining companies will assist in the required transportation infrastructure investment in the Project Area.

Gotov Dugerjav 56 ConclusionsConclusions andand recommendations:recommendations: (continued)

Ø Main constraints and problems limiting the use of the transport corridors are inadequate development of the infrastructure, especially missing rail and paved road sections along the Corridors.

Ø If the constraints were lift up, traffic would be increased to great extent. Particularly, tourism and border trade between Mongolia and PRC would be much increased along the Road Corridor and freight traffic of coal, coking coal, copper concentrate and iron ore to PRC and further to ROK and Japan would be increased enormously along the Rail Corridor.

Ø Investment Programs are required to missing infrastructure links, namely: § Conduct feasibility studies, design and construction Railway section between Khuut and Sumber (Nomrog) BCP; § Upgrading Rail section between Choibalsan and Ereentsav including replacement of existing wooden sleepers with concrete ones, introducing modern signalization system and electrification, and § Preparing feasibility study, detailed design and construction of paved road between Choibalsan city vicinity and Sumber (Nomrog) BCP.

Ø If the Corridors are in operation, Mongolia would have a reliable gate to the ocean. Foreign trade transportation expenses would be reduced to some degree. They will create favorable conditions to develop agriculture especially crop farming, meat and dairy farms in the Eastern region of Mongolia.

Gotov Dugerjav 57 ThankThank You!You!

Gotov Dugerjav 58