VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT

www.valdaiclub.com

DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

Andrey Bezrukov, Olga Rebro, Andrey Sushentsov

MOSCOW, JANUARY 2017 Authors

Andrey Bezrukov Associate Professor, MGIMO University Olga Rebro Senior Analyst, Foreign Policy Advisory Group Andrey Sushentsov Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club; Director, Foreign Policy Advisory Group; Associate Professor, MGIMO University

The views and opinions expressed in this Report are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Valdai Discussion Club, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Contents

Eff ectiveness as a Public Communicator ...... 4

Organizational Capacity ...... 5

Political Skill ...... 6

Vision ...... 6

Cognitive Style ...... 7

Emotional Intelligence ...... 8

TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM

National Security and the Use of Force ...... 9

Security in the Middle East ...... 9

China and the Situation in the Asia-Pacifi c Region ...... 10

NATO and European Security ...... 10

Relations with Russia and the Ukrainian Crisis ...... 11

International Trade and Energy ...... 11

Clinton and Trump in the Context of U.S. Political Cycles ...... 12 : A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

The United States is entering a new stage Third, the White House will have in its development. Although the U.S. remains to look for ways to overcome the anti-elite the leading world power, recent events indicate that attitudes in society and respond to the “request it is not immune to instability and change. More for authenticity.” The elite will have to re-invent importantly, those changes caught the U.S. elite by themselves, abandoning the political mainstream surprise. Neither nor Donald Trump, of recent decades and welcoming outsiders into its the two major parties’ presidential candidates, membership. offered a program to resolve the country’s underlying Finally, the key challenge will be to answer problems, and are themselves symptoms of those the question: What does U.S. leadership mean ills. Therefore, either outcome of the presidential in the 21st century and which resources election would have perpetuated the same overriding is the United States willing to allocate to maintain sense of uncertainty that characterizes the U.S. its dominance? The painful awareness that political system. And because the U.S. holds a special the global infl uence of the U.S. is weakening could position in the world, that uncertainty will spill over cause the elite to react in shock. into global processes and complicate an already In addition to these tasks, a number of serious complex picture. internal political constraints will hamper President- The 2016 electoral cycle in the U.S. elect Trump. coincided with a worsening of the country’s two The first is the deep political rift that greatest challenges. Signs are becoming the presidential candidates’ aggressive rhetoric only increasingly clear in the international arena that exacerbated. Donald Trump does not have a full- the global leadership role of the U.S. is diminishing. fl edged popular mandate. Internal political problems However, the greater danger is the emerging threat will absorb the attention of the new president more to the internal stability of the U.S. political system. than foreign policy issues. The anti-elite mood and protest vote upended The Republican majority in Congress will the U.S. electoral process and threaten to spread be critical of Trump. He will almost certainly beyond the political arena. It turned out that face political sabotage by the Democrats. the U.S. elite were unprepared for this challenge. In its turn, if Trump performs poorly as president, This largely explains why U.S. political scientist the Republicans will turn against him at the end Robert Legvold refers to this time as “the era of his term and back a new candidate for the next of small minds.” elections. Regardless of his political program, President- The new presidency will likely be marred elect Donald Trump will be hostage to several major by a series of criminal cases. The Republicans, problems that he cannot dismiss. in accordance with promises Trump made during First, he will have to respond to public his campaign, will demand an investigation into demand for social progress and a more equitable Clinton’s handling of classified information distribution of wealth. Failure to meet these demands funding given to the Democratic campaign by will radicalize the “left.” Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Ukraine. The Democrats, Second, he will have to form a new in turn, will seek to prosecute Trump for tax national consensus between the declining white evasion and sexual harassment. There is also majority and numerous minorities. The white some chance of an investigation into alleged population of America, including the majority “Russian interference” in the U.S. elections. of women, supports Donald Trump, while In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. might plunge the great majority of the non-white population into a constitutional crisis. does not. The failure to form a national What might await Russian-U.S. relations consensus could lead to a radicalization in the future? We have no solid grounds on which of the country’s political life. to base a prediction of President-elect Trump’s

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positions on specific international issues. however, the U.S. is likely to be too focused on itself However, the election results are unlikely to cause for such an undertaking. a signifi cant change in U.S. national interests. After In addition, the West will gradually lift its forming his administration, the new president anti-Russian sanctions under pressure from those will focus on domestic issues. Foreign policy and who oppose them in the U.S. and EU. The Ukrainian relations with Russia will be largely dependent crisis propelled Russia toward China, to the detriment on events as they unfold. of U.S. long-term interests. The U.S. might well Despite his positive public rhetoric, Donald respond by enlisting Russia’s support in containing Trump has not made any concrete proposals China. Washington will gradually lift sanctions in an to improve relations with Russia. His presidency attempt to get Russia moving in the desired direction. brings a great deal of uncertainty to bilateral The Ukrainian question will gradually lose urgency. relations. The administration Trump is forming Using the methodology of U.S. political contains both individuals that have positive scientist Fred Greenstein, this report evaluates experience working with Moscow (such as Rex the basic parameters of Donald Trump’s psychological Tillerson, his choice for secretary of state), as well and professional competence – his effectiveness as typical “hawks” (such as the Cold War-minded as a public communicator, organizational capacity, General James Mattis, his pick for secretary political skill, vision, cognitive style, and emotional of defense). intelligence. In all likelihood, the two countries will maintain The second part of this report attempts their current policies toward each other for the next four to predict Donald Trump’s future foreign policy years. Relations might encounter some vicissitudes, platform based on his past statements, the people but it would make sense for Moscow and Washington he has chosen as advisors, and his supporters. to try to keep them on an even keel. This will depend The report also analyzes the domestic political on the specifi c circumstances of their relationship, and context of the new U.S. presidential administration on developments between other countries. and identifies the political constraints the new The Ukrainian crisis put an end to the period occupant of the White House will face. when it was generally thought that Russia and Finally, this report will formulate conclusions the West were pursuing a common goal of forming pertaining to Russia based on the outcome of the U.S. a Euro-Atlantic community. Russian-U.S. relations election campaign and describe likely scenarios by need more than a new “fi x” or “reset:” they need which bilateral relations will develop after Trump a complete reformatting. In the coming years, takes offi ce.

Eff ectiveness as a Public Communicator

donald Trump has appeared before television made him invulnerable to criticism – like Ronald cameras continually since the late 1980s and has used Reagan, who in his time was dubbed the “Tefl on” his media image as a pillar of his political career. president. Even well founded accusations “do not From the TV screen, Trump radiates a benevolent stick” to Trump; they only serve to reinforce his self-satisfaction that his supporters interpret as reputation as a shrewd and unsinkable politician. strength and confi dence but that his detractors see Although Trump’s public statements are rife as weakness and evidence of an inferiority complex. with factual errors, rude expressions, and clichés, However, his reputation as a fl amboyant showman they are the very things that form the basis of his not only did no harm to his political career, but it popularity. Trump refers to himself as a walking

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example of the “American Dream” – a successful and than diminishing his popularity, those media attacks worldly man, a veritable hero who bows before no produce the opposite result – actually increasing traditional authorities.1 Trump’s popularity among his supporters. By Trump’s strength as a communicator lies constantly stirring up the public, Trump manages in his rejection of the rules to which public politicians to remain the center of attention, control the agenda, have traditionally adhered. Trump personally speaks and shift the discourse from the substantive with members of the press and does not hide behind to the emotional. aides to escape the avalanche of criticism directed This trait could prove dangerous for Trump at him. On the contrary, he skillfully parries every as president. Once he becomes the Chief Executive, verbal attack, his impromptu responses invariably Trump will have to comply with the requirements putting his opponents off balance. of political tact in dealing with foreign leaders and Another reason Trump is successful is that infl uential opponents within the United States. He he expresses those aspects of the traditional U.S. would have to adjust his style of communication mentality that the progressive media considers in order to make his stay in offi ce more manageable. socially deplorable – strength, confidence, However, throughout his public career, Trump masculinity, a traditional view of family, etc. Those has never shown himself in any other light. Faced qualities are in great demand by many U.S. citizens with an insurmountable obstacle, Trump typically tired of the “softness” and ambiguousness of Barack blames the obstacle rather than himself. In a worst- Obama’s presidency. case scenario, Trump will struggle under the weight Nonetheless, the media fi nd Trump’s self- of the formal requirements of his offi ce and periodically satisfi ed manner greatly irritating and criticizes him vent his frustration with emotional outbursts, daily for each of his new escapades. However, rather damaging constructive relations with partners.

Organizational Capacity

A newcomer to politics, Trump used his personal opinion, even if it directly contradicts business organizational skills during the election his. However, this organizational style precludes campaign. He surrounded himself with a small circle access for anyone outside his inner circle, including of loyal, though at times incompetent advisers, and members of the Republican political establishment. is likely to follow the same approach as Chief of State. Despite his formal proximity to Trump, Virginia In Trump’s view, a selfless desire to contribute state senator and Vice President-elect Michael to the “company mission” more than compensates Pence largely functioned as a politically reliable for any lack of competence. “screen” from behind which the candidate listened Every member of Trump’s small team has more closely to Governor Chris Christie, who held ready access to him and is free to express their out hope for the Number Two spot until the very last moment. 1 This image of Trump bears a resemblance to the U.S. archetype of Trump’s older children – Donald Jr. (for whom an independent, successful, and straight-talking “Squire Jack.” This many predict a future in politics), Ivanka, and Eric – was the nickname of Captain John Porter – a hero of the war with Britain in 1812, self-made coal magnate from Pennsylvania, and the also have a signifi cant infl uence on the President- inspiration for the painting “Independence” by U.S. artist Frank Mayer. elect. They convinced Trump to replace the less The success of that painting and Porter’s own reputation in the mid- experienced Corey Lewandowski with , 19th century popularized the “Squire Jack” image – a symbol of the “American dream” and a personification of the U.S. itself. who had worked on the election campaigns of several

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Republican presidents and who brought in advisors According to rumors stemming from from the campaign headquarters of several the billionaire’s staff, after his inauguration, Trump of Trump’s rivals for the Republican nomination. might begin cleansing the government of political Trump’s promise to compensate for his appointees and give the business community more lack of experience in political affairs by delegating direct access to senior leaders. Trump explains authority to competent experts is only half-true. this as a need to listen to people who know about Such people will doubtless appear, but they will the country’s problems fi rsthand. His critics, in turn, influence Trump’s decision-making process only point to the inevitability of conflicts of interest after they win his trust. arising, along with the spread of nepotism.

Political Skill

Trump’s complete lack of political experience As president, Trump will undoubtedly face a largely generates a great deal of speculation as to how he hostile Congress that will oppose and resist his habit will operate within the U.S. political system. As of issuing ultimatums. of this writing, his public statements suggest two On the other hand, Trump campaigned completely different approaches. on the need to fi ght corruption among the ruling On one hand, Trump has repeatedly said that, elite. In other words, Trump is not talking about with his negotiating skills, he would have no problem working with Congress, but of “shaking it up,” along handling his responsibilities as president, and that with the rest of the political establishment. Voters he would choose a vice president who understands are expecting Trump to take a confrontational all the intricacies of Washington. However, approach to Washington and the billionaire is sure in the business negotiations with which Trump to oblige with his usual histrionics. is familiar, failure leads only to the search for a new It is possible, however, that an increasing business partner, whereas political negotiations number of congresspeople who were opposed require a greater degree of adaptability and failures to Trump – but whose tenure on Capitol Hill can have far-reaching consequences. In fact, depends on voter support – will be compelled to take the political viability of an entire administration a more tolerant approach to him once he becomes often depends on this ability. So far, Trump has president. If they want to retain that voter support not demonstrated the ability (or desire) to concede in the next presidential elections, they will have even the slightest point to his opponents, even if he to strike a delicate balance between opposing and stood to lose politically from such intransigence. supporting the new president.

Vision

Trump’s election campaign had two main the current condition of the country and the second slogans: “Make America Great Again” and “America offers a way to achieve that greatness. Taken First.” The fi rst describes Trump’s view regarding together, they offer an idea of President-elect

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Trump’s political vision of the position the U.S. holds Trump suggests that the solution in the world. is to shift focus temporarily from building The bipartisan consensus of the last 70 the world order to putting things in order at years draws a direct connection between U.S. home, and to approaching world affairs strictly prosperity and the construction of a global order from the standpoint of the primacy of national based on liberal democratic values. Bucking that interests – the economy foremost among them. consensus, Trump claims that this approach has That is why Trump views China – that steals U.S. weakened the country. Whereas technologies and uses “dishonest” trade practices – as suggested that the U.S. should “ride the wave a greater evil than Russia, which could assume some of globalization,” Trump believes the U.S. should save of the burden for establishing order to the Middle itself from that wave. In his opinion, the blurring East. He measures the loyalty of U.S. allies according of borders has sparked a rise in illegal migration and to their willingness to pay for services to guarantee enabled terrorists to infi ltrate the country. Large- their security. Trump feels the U.S. does not have scale trade agreements as measures for liberalizing the moral right to preach democracy as long as it has the economy have led to the fl ight of U.S. capital and, failed to “fi x” democracy at home. consequently, higher unemployment. Multilateral By pursuing a course based on pragmatism military alliances only overstress a national budget and national self-interest, Trump will encounter already suffering under the burden of massive debt. two major obstacles – the entrenched views Moreover, the development of modern technology of the Washington bureaucracy and the unpredictable has made the United States vulnerable to militarily consequences of radically altering the country’s less powerful countries and terrorist groups. foreign and domestic policies.

Cognitive Style

Donald Trump likes to say, “I’m really smart.” could be several explanations for this discrepancy. This does not prevent him from making many factual First, Trump thinks big and leaves the details errors: 86% of his statements range from “half- of how to implement those ideas for later. It is not by truths” to “blatant lies.” The truth probably lies chance that in his book “The Art of the Deal,” Trump somewhere in the middle: Trump is not as smart as tells his readers to “aim high” and to not be afraid he says, but is smarter than he appears to be. to make drastic decisions. Donald Trump was educated at the University Second, Trump never dealt with politics of Pennsylvania, an Ivy League institution. He worked prior to his campaign, and it is possible that he simultaneously at his father’s fi rm and halted his has the ability to master new information quickly. formal education after earning his bachelor’s degree, His level of competency on foreign policy issues preferring practical knowledge to theoretical. He improved discernibly in 2016, with his public nearly drove his newly formed Trump Organization statements growing more informed and considerably into bankruptcy, but was later listed in the Guinness more measured. Book of World Records for best personal fi nancial Third, Trump follows one piece of his own comeback. Although he confuses the capitals advice – namely “know your market” (or, in this case, of European countries, Trump displays a remarkable audience). Trump’s bold, simplistic, and emotional command of legal and fi nancial details concerning speeches fi ll stadiums with mostly middle-income construction projects and his own companies. There males.

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Last, Trump often makes decisions based his campaign, in choosing Michael Pence as on intuition rather than careful forethought. He his running mate – a decision he immediately departed from this strategy only once during regretted.2

Emotional Intelligence

During the election campaign, Trump’s To some extent, Trump was lucky: his opponents had the greatest success when leveling negligible real estate investments in crime-ridden their attacks against his emotional instability. Manhattan paid off when the area turned into Clinton supporters constantly argued that, “Such a global business center. Trump’s focus on success a person cannot be trusted with the nuclear codes.” rather than money also played a role. “Money was Trump’s subordinates claim that never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep unpredictability is his most salient character trait. score,” he wrote. Always ready to put everything he One day, he delves meticulously into all the details owned on the line, Trump was drawn to high-risk and of a project, and the next he becomes an aloof leader high-stakes projects that generated huge profi ts – who does not want to be bothered with trifl es. He when they succeeded. prizes employee loyalty above all else, and is quick The turning point came in the early 1990s, to punish any individual whose devotion he has reason when, in addition to family problems, a number to doubt. Such punishment usually takes the form of such projects fell through, pushing Trump of a public lynching rather than a backroom intrigue. to the brink of bankruptcy. He has been more Trump’s emotional instability comes coupled cautious ever since, effectively walking away from with an extraordinary capacity for work. He sleeps the construction business (apart from a personal only a few hours per day, maintains an almost interest in golf courses). He began thinking about maniacal discipline, has a fear of germs, and is known his own political career (having blamed his failure as a perfectionist. Trump developed these qualities on “terrible” tax reforms) and began earning while attending the New York Military Academy money by selling the right to use the Trump where his father sent him in order to channel brand. From that point on, his success stemmed the energies of his disobedient and aggressive son not so much from his business dealings, as from in a positive direction. It was at the Academy that his popularity as a public figure: a tough and Trump became convinced of the idea fi rst inculcated authoritarian leader who had made his fortune by his father, that life is a constant battle (the through his own efforts. Academy used corporal punishment). Trump also That is the Trump many Americans voted learned how to emerge from that battle victorious, for in the primaries, but it is also the Trump that having formed the “correct” relationship with his opponents claim “lacks the qualifications the school authorities. Trump recalls: “I made it to be president.” It is worth noting that opponents clear that I respect their authority, but that they of the seventh U.S. president, Andrew Jackson (1829- couldn’t scare me.” After graduating near the top 1837) leveled the same chargers against him. Jackson of his class in the Academy and earning his diploma was known for his quick temper and tempestuous from the University of Pennsylvania, Trump resolved social life, but became one of the most successful to surpass the achievements of his father, who owned U.S. presidents. apartment complexes in Queens and Brooklyn. After requesting and receiving seed capital from him, 2 Even after announcing Pence as his running mate, Trump asked his Trump set out to conquer Manhattan. assistants if it were not too late to replace him with Chris Christie.

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TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM National Security and the Use of Force

Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that of financial support for the regimes in Baghdad he would make decisive use of military force for and Kabul could lead to the destabilization of those the sake of guaranteed political gains. He has countries. On the other hand, Trump will step promised voters victories, and that means he will up the air campaign against ISIL3. By achieving avoid protracted and politically hopeless military a symbolic victory – whether in cooperation with ventures. This primarily concerns the prospect Russia or otherwise – the U.S. under Trump will show of war against Iran, a country that Trump criticized little interest in reconstructing Syria. vehemently during the campaign. Trump has voiced the desire to resolve Trump’s criticisms of military operations confl icts at the negotiating table, but has warned in Afghanistan (“should have sent in troops that those negotiations will be short-lived sooner”) and Iraq (“shouldn’t have interfered”) if agreement is not quickly forthcoming. This indicate that he values results over Washington’s approach provides little hope for progress responsibility to its partners, and pragmatism over in resolving the acute or long-standing confl ict spreading democracy. It is safe to say that Trump in Ukraine, as well as the Arab-Israeli, Israeli- will not hesitate to dismantle Obama’s policies Palestinian, and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts, if he feels they harm U.S. interests. One positive among others. Moreover, his impatience and consequence of this approach is that Trump will exceedingly straightforward approach could lead probably be skeptical about supporting popular to a breakdown in U.S. relations with such diffi cult unrest in CIS countries. In his view, the main allies as Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. result of “color revolutions” is that they saddle Under Trump, the U.S. will continue the U.S. with the financial burden of supporting the energetic modernization of its armed forces, new ruling regimes. especially their nuclear, space, and cyber components. Under Trump, the U.S. will likely free itself The primary goal will be to maintain the gap between from the burden of involvement in the protracted U.S. military potential and that of China and Russia, conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. The gradual as well as to prevent the European Space Agency withdrawal of U.S. troops and the weakening from emerging as a competitor.

Security in the Middle East

Trump describes radical Islamic terrorism troops in order to defeat both ISIL and al-Qaida4 as as the main threat to the U.S. He attributes quickly as possible. He continues Obama’s approach the rise in such terrorism to the failed policies in other areas: the organization of a multilateral of the previous administration in the Middle coalition with the obligatory participation East, including the operation in Libya in 2011 of regional powers, the active use of drones, and and calls to overthrow Syrian President Bashar the need to capture of leaders of terrorist movements. al-Assad. In addition, he acknowledged the need to maintain While condemning outside interference a minimum U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. in the internal affairs of other countries with the goal of imposing democracy, Trump said the U.S. 3 Banned in Russia. – Ed. note. must increase its presence in Iraq to 15,000–20,000 4 Banned in Russia. – Ed. note.

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Trump has named Israel, Egypt, and Jordon complained about Pakistan, but later admitted as the main partners in the region, and said he that ending U.S. aid to the country would lead plans to restore relations with Tel Aviv to previous to further destabilization. levels. He speaks with great reserve about such Trump places the threat to U.S. interests posed “complicated” allies as Turkey (although he by Iran on a par with that of terrorism. Promising admires President Erdogan’s leadership qualities) to reverse the “Iranian nuclear deal,” he plans to cut and Saudi Arabia (whose dominance in the energy off Iran’s ability to fi nance the Hezbollah and field Trump has vowed to end). Even before movements. In all likelihood, Trump will demand the start of the election campaign, Trump a halt to the return of Tehran’s fi nancial assets.

China and the Situation in the Asia-Pacifi c Region

The main blow of Trump’s new trade policy a means for ensuring stability in the region as a tool for will fall on China. He has promised to declare China exerting pressure on Beijing regarding economic policy. a “currency manipulator” on his fi rst day in offi ce, It is therefore possible that, under Trump, the U.S. to bring it to account for stealing technology, position concerning the South China Sea will directly allowing sub-standard working conditions and loose depend on the quality of trade relations. environmental controls, and plans to force Beijing Trump has also said that China is the key to the negotiating table to discuss new terms for to solving the North Korean nuclear issue and promises bilateral trade that are more favorable for the United to pressure Beijing into ending its support for States. Toward the same end, Trump has proposed Pyongyang entirely. providing additional arms to China’s neighbors and Ultimately, Trump expects to reach a new imposing a 45% duty on Chinese goods. agreement with China on international trade that At the same time, Trump views the U.S. military will better meet U.S. interests. Trump has fewer presence in the Asia-Pacifi c region not so much as concerns about improving security in East Asia.

NATO and European Security

Trump considers NATO an outdated he would accomplish it, given that the U.S. has structure because the very purpose for creating pursued the same goal without success for decades. the Alliance – countering the Soviet Union – is no Trump has stopped just short of threatening longer relevant. That does not mean the organization to refuse to fulfill U.S. collective security will be disbanded. Rather, Trump speaks of the need obligations toward NATO member countries that to reformat NATO to confront terrorism, the most refuse to fork over their share. dangerous threat of the modern era, by changing Trump’s insistence on this point could lead the structure and composition of the Alliance. not only to a sharp deterioration in relations with Trump also promises to make European European allies, but also to political problems countries pay for U.S. services that ensure their at home. A refusal to support U.S. allies could security. However, he has not specified how encounter fi erce opposition from military circles

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and the political establishment. At the same time, possible that the U.S. under Trump could have a decision to restructure NATO and stop exaggerating a falling out with Russia, in which case Washington the Russian threat would reduce Washington’s would bring all its available tools into service and attention on the “eastern fl ank.” However, it is also NATO would revert to its original mission.

Relations with Russia and the Ukrainian Crisis

Trump’s political opponents actively accuse on good terms with the Russian leader. Not having him of being too “friendly” or “accommodating” skimped on positive assessments of Putin since 2007, toward Russia. Trump promises to begin treating Russia’s interests He has repeatedly expressed admiration with respect. For his part, Putin limits himself for the leadership qualities of Russian President to describing Trump as “colorful” and “extravagant,” Vladimir Putin and Trump’s team has taken but has maintained the possibility of mending exception to the Republican Party platform position bilateral relations. On the other hand, Trump makes of the need to supply arms to Ukraine. Trump also no breezy promises of establishing perfect relations took a positive view of the start of Russian military with the Russian leader. Trump believes that only operations in Syria and supported cooperation by taking a fi rm approach and advancing his own between the two countries in the fi ght against ISIL. interests can he achieve mutual respect and good In addition, Trump has not ruled out lifting sanctions relations with Putin. and recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. Even while some points of contention Given Trump’s proclivity for negotiations, in Russian-U.S. relations such as Ukraine, Syria, the practical realization of these proposals and NATO expansion could become less acute, will depend, in the first place, on the nature the possibility remains that new problems will of personal relations between the leaders emerge. Concerted U.S. efforts against Iran could of the two countries and, secondly, on whether jeopardize the achievements of the “nuclear deal” those issues will be on the table. Without a doubt, in which Russia invested considerable energy. Trump, as president, will demand a high price for The withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan any U.S. concessions. could create a power vacuum and give rise to new Trump is cautious in answering the question threats to regional security. Raising the stakes of whether he will be able to get along with Vladimir with China could lead to uncontrolled escalation. Putin, but he always adds that he will defi nitely make But the most challenging situations could arise the effort and that it would benefi t both countries. in connection with such difficult U.S. allies as At this point, Trump has every opportunity to get Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

International Trade and Energy

Trump referred to himself as a political Arguing that the U.S. got so carried away outsider during the campaign, and his position with the idea of liberalized world trade that it on trade is the most vivid proof of that. often sacrifi ced its own interests, Trump said that

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Washington should revise some trade agreements, probably use economic pressure to “intimidate” such as NAFTA, and scrap others altogether, such obstinate negotiating partners. as the TTP. After winning his party’s nomination, As is the case with NATO, the political Trump only reluctantly bent to Republican pressure establishment would strongly oppose any attempt by and, in a mutually acceptable concession, vowed that Trump to revise existing trade agreements, although instead of withdrawing from those agreements, he progressives such as the supporters of Bernie Sanders would severely punish anyone who violates their would strongly approve of such measures. terms. Nonetheless, many still fear the outbreak Trump has made it a foreign and economic of trade wars. policy priority for the U.S. to become a leader In fact, Trump might be using this tough in traditional energy. He also plans to resume mining posturing as a negotiation tactic, making heavy operations in the Arctic, support the construction demands in order to win maneuvering room, and of a pipeline from Canada, and increase the U.S. threatening to withdraw from agreements in order presence in the Arctic. In all likelihood, the White to pressure opponents. Given that Trump constantly House will fi nally give a “green light” to Russian-U.S. claims he can easily negotiate with anyone, he will cooperation on energy production in the Barents Sea.

Clinton and Trump in the Context of U.S. Political Cycles

The U.S. presidential election campaign States – of the new social and technological order of 2016 threatens to overturn all the established in the world. The mass transition to manufacturing notions of the U.S. establishment. The program based on robotics, AI, and additive technologies of the future president of the world’s most powerful will cause the collapse of global production chains country is of no small importance to Russia. In order and the re-localization of production in wealthy to understand what is happening and why – and even consumer states that, at the same time, will become more importantly, to predict what might happen energy independent. Exerting an overriding next – it is necessary to place the Clinton-Trump infl uence on production, effective demand will drive election race in a broad historical context, in terms the process of regionalization so that producers of both the internal dynamics of U.S. politics and U.S. “fence off” access for competitors to “their own” relations with the world. markets – a phenomenon already observed This latest U.S. election campaign was the fi rst in politics when countries try to rewrite the rules in what is now clearly a wave of rapidly changing of the game in order to create exclusive zones for global economic and political paradigms. Not only their corporations. After the world divides into zones has the balance of power changed in the world of infl uence according to economic interests, it might arena, but spheres of infl uence are also shifting at further split into political and military blocs. an increasing pace and weakening international It is unlikely that the next 10 years will institutions are unable to diffuse the rising tensions. pass without deep systemic crises arising, The world is entering a period of increasing volatility one of which already proves itself. The global and uncertainty. economy probably cannot achieve sustainable Globalization has transformed potential growth during the transition period. That will U.S. rivals – China, foremost among them – into lead to budget deficits, social tensions, political economic giants. However, the next 10 years will crises, and increasing changes to governments offer the fi rst glimmerings – especially in the United and alliances. This instability will only aggravate

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the problems of migration and structural A new political cycle began with the establishment unemployment, problems that will primarily hit of post-war global economic and political institutions the already struggling middle class. This crisis and the deepening of the ideological confrontation is the key to understanding the pre-election between the Soviet Union and the United States. political dynamics in the U.S., where income The personification of this cycle – that we call inequality has reached the level of 1914, when 1% the “cycle of freedom” – was Ronald Reagan, who of the population controlled 90% of the country’s made the struggle for the liberation of corporations wealth. from government intervention and the liberation All this produces the effect of dejà vu – as of populations from “Soviet tyranny” the raison if the clock had turned back 100 years to the time d’être of his presidency. Presidents George Bush, Bill of World War I. Of course, this is in keeping with Clinton, and George W. Bush continued the “cycle the findings of many authoritative scholars who of freedom,” although the latter’s disastrous venture have shown that history passes through long-term in Iraq and the crisis of 2008 made it clear that economic and political cycles. For the purposes the highpoint of the cycle had already passed. of this report, it is interesting that the current Moreover, an accumulation of structural problems election campaign opens a new political cycle has made the U.S. economy less competitive since that, like all that came before, sets the stage for the early 2000s. The ineffective Obama presidency new political forces, a new “U.S. consensus,” a new also reveals the accumulation of a range of problems understanding of the role of the U.S. in the world, both in domestic and foreign policy, and of the need and a new U.S. foreign policy. for fundamental change. Consider the stages through which the U.S. In political terms, the next decade for the U.S. has passed in the last century. World War I resulted will be a period of instability and political reforms. from the victory of the industrial revolution that The Cold War generation will lose significance. turned Germany and the United States into major The 2016 election campaign has prompted competitors that were intent on redefi ning their a reevaluation of the place, role, and capabilities zones of infl uence. Germany started that war and of the United States. The American people will need the U.S. made use of its results. In the U.S. and to decide whether to protect the entire global system the entire developed world, a social upheaval the U.S. has created, as the idealist and bureaucrat triggered by the results of the war, an economic Hillary Clinton advocated, or preserve only crisis, and blatant inequality overturned the existing the part that is directly integrated with the United status-quo. A new political wave began that took as States – roughly speaking, the Anglo-Saxon its slogan the search for a just society. That political world – as the realist and businessman President- cycle – what we will call the cycle of “justice” – elect Donald Trump tends to favor. saw the election of former U.S. President Franklin While the U.S. is deciding on its long-term D. Roosevelt and the U.S. government taking political course, the leadership vacuum will be a stronger role in the regulation of industry and fi lled by a series of temporary offi ce holders and the distribution of state resources as a means demagogic populists – the only type of individuals of buttressing the foundations of the system. This who can come to power during such a time. They will more central role for the state – typical at that time respond to the mounting domestic problems with for most of the world – turned out to be very useful a standard mix of superpower slogans and pragmatic for the American people during World War II. isolationism. Their foreign policy is very likely By the end of the 1940s, the nominal tax to take a confrontational approach to Washington’s rate for the wealthiest U.S. citizens reached 90%. emerging geopolitical rivals. It is very possible they As the economy recovered, society consolidated, will embark on reckless escapades, using confl icts the middle class gained strength, and government with “the rest of the world” and heavy investments policy was freed from the danger of social confl ict. in high-tech military industries to overcome

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, JANUARY 2017 13 DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

the domestic crisis – as leaders have done repeatedly “unfair” competition. While the financial elite in the past. boasted of the results of peace and globalization, The Bernie Sanders phenomenon indicates industrialists grew nostalgic for the era of war and that domestic policy is again under pressure confrontation. from issues related to inequality. To maintain Kurth makes an interesting argument. social stability, the country must return to a more Analyzing the relationship of the U.S. with the world balanced distribution of wealth and a stronger role since the 1890s when U.S. expansion effectively for government. However, the redistribution of cash began, he writes, “It is not plutocracy as such that fl ows has always resulted from internal or external determines long-term, structural outcomes, but crises that weakened the ruling elite. rather the particular sectors of the economy that It is impossible to understand the recent U.S. provide the basis for the plutocracy’s wealth and presidential election campaign without understanding power. As it turns out, it makes a big difference the balance of power among – or more precisely, if that wealth is based upon industrial sectors, or the crisis within – the U.S. elite. The function upon a fi nancial one.” of the elite is to formulate a consensus on where “We have already seen,” writes Kurth, “that the country should go and how. However, the elite a financial plutocracy is ill-suited for effective now lack agreement on what do with the country leadership in the global competition between great itself, or with the rest of the world. The absence of any powers. Its neglect or even disdain for a healthy clear results from Obama’s two presidential terms domestic industrial structure is one factor. Its is the result of the growing contradiction between attachment to a global reserve currency, despite the country’s domestic and foreign realities and the vulnerability and consequent sensitivity the policies pursued by elite who have remained to government deficits this brings, is another. in power since almost the 1980s. Its preference for small wars or imperial policing The U.S. elite consist of several groups: rather than for preparing the nation and its the fi nancial, industrial, administrative, military, military for deterring great powers and large wars scientific, and media elite. The financial and is a third.” industrial elite take opposite stances with regard The financial elite believe that China can to building relations with the outside world. integrate into the world economy without a direct The financial elite have consistently viewed confrontation with the U.S. and that they can control the entire world as a market and were the driving the rest of the world by directing competitors against force behind globalization – although industrial each other. Those competitors are not “fed” directly corporations took part in that expansion with equal by the U.S., but by the entire global system that enthusiasm through the end of the 20th century. is based on the primacy of the dollar. However, as James Kurth wrote in his article The military elite, themselves supported “The foreign policy of plutocracies” published by by the industrial elite, increasingly believe that the American Interest magazine,5 Wall Street banks competition is inevitable with China as an emerging preferred in the 2000s to invest in real estate or superpower – a reality that the U.S. middle class in promoting proven technologies overseas. They did is also coming to accept. Not surprisingly, the military not want to wait until more risk-laden technologies elite overwhelmingly voted for Trump. They saw him of the next industrial cycle bore fruit. At the same as the candidate best equipped to revitalize the U.S. time, the industrial elite, weakened by the erosion and to accept the challenge of the country’s main of the industrial base, requested assistance political rival. from the government in their struggle against The start of a new economic cycle and the rebirth of U.S. industrial might based 5 Kurth J. The Foreign Policy of Plutocracies // The American Interest. on new technologies again shifts the balance Volume 7. Number 2. September 2011. URL: http://www.the-ameri- can-interest.com/2011/09/27/the-foreign-policy-of-plutocracies. of power toward the industrial elite. However,

14 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, JANUARY 2017 DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

whereas the industrial elite are heterogeneous pressures that the elite of other countries are under, and disconnected, the financial elite are are completely unaware of the degree of public a closely-knit community concentrated in three alienation and imagine that all problems can or four cities and have close ties to political be worked out among the elite. We have a crisis power. That community exerts an indisputable of the elite. impact on government decision-makers – and According to a Harvard Business School the relations between the members of the two study on U.S. competitiveness and the condition groups began back in their college days in the top of top U.S. business circles that was published universities of New England, continued during in September 2016 and led by Michael Porter, “Our careers at Goldman Sachs or Baker & McKenzie, political system is now the major obstacle to progress and solidified with their membership on the economy….” In this atmosphere of distrust in prestigious charities. toward political leaders and the inability of both Most U.S. citizens clearly do not side with parties to reach compromises, the number of voters Wall Street, but the middle class – that is ready who consider themselves “independents” now totals to support the agenda of the industrial elite – until 42% – more than the Democratic or Republican recently had no opportunity to express its opinion electorates. and to challenge the financiers who had thrown The elite of both parties did not take Trump in their lot with Clinton as the guarantor of their seriously until only recently. His meteoric rise caused continued dominance. Trump finally gave them the entire political establishment to panic and close that chance. This explains the unprecedented ranks once its members realized that they could surge of more than 2 million small donations end up on the sidelines. The elite are unprepared to his election fund. In the three or four months to talk about the real issues. They are unaccustomed until the end of the race – from the moment voters to answering vital questions. That is why Clinton, began to believe that a new type of leader could a Democratic ideologue, insisted that everything come to power – approximately the same number is just fi ne with the U.S. and that her cough and “light of Republicans voted with their money through form of pneumonia” would pass by themselves if she the Internet as the well-oiled Democratic electoral just rested and took the prescribed pills. machine had managed to mobilize over the previous Trump, however, as a realist and several years. businessperson – and along with him, half the country During their time in power, the current ruling that increasingly supports the representatives elite have seen victory in the Cold War, globalization, of business – demanded that Clinton divulge her and an unprecedented growth of fi nancial capital “medical file” out of a feeling that real recovery fed by cheap money. An ideological consensus would require intensive care, if not “elective surgery” also formed during those “cycle of freedom” on the organs that had ceased to function. years, a set of postulates that no one can question The transition to a new political cycle and without the risk of becoming a “political outcast” a new consensus of the elite will take time. Donald in Washington, New York, and Los Angeles – or Trump, and whoever comes to power in 2020, will in the vernacular, a person with whom nobody will have to cope with an unstable and highly divided “do lunch.” One such postulate holds that Russia world. It is a very different world than the one Ronald is an enemy. Reagan or even Barack Obama faced. After so many years of success, the U.S. The United States of that day will more fi nancial and political elite cannot even imagine closely resemble the country at the time of Franklin that they could be mistaken in some way. Stratfor Roosevelt – with enormous internal stratifi cation, founder George Friedman is not very optimistic about a former majority of whites that suddenly fi nds itself their ability to adapt to the new paradigm. In his a minority, aging infrastructure, and a powerful rival opinion, those elite do not understand the political that can usurp Washington’s global leadership. As

VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, JANUARY 2017 15 DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

was the case in the 1930s, the U.S. can only solve its Hillary Clinton was a “last chance” candidate, global problems – that is, the problem of establishing both in terms of her personal career and the ability balanced and therefore just relations with the rest of the incumbent elite to remain in power. She had of the world – by working to achieve balance and no future. In Clinton, the U.S. could have expected justice in U.S. domestic relations. That would mark a “laborious” one-term presidency, tired slogans, and the start of a new “cycle of justice.” the same old faces. Both she and Obama symbolize Donald Trump does not represent the forces the end of a political cycle, the end of the Cold War driving this new cycle. He offers no ideas on which political culture. the elite could build a new consensus for the years Trump’s historical function is to shatter ahead. Trump does not even represent a conscious the United States’ old, inaccurate, and “politically movement for change in the way that Bernie correct” picture of itself and the world that Sanders does. But for “middle class America,” is preventing it from changing. Only an outsider can Trump is a signal that change can begin. Obama accomplish this. Realistic proposals for change will promised change but ultimately disappointed his come later – in four or maybe eight years, and most supporters. Trump, by contrast, seems more ready likely not from the right, but from the left, possibly to fight for results. as a rejection of Trump and his policies.

16 VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, JANUARY 2017 #Valdaiclub

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