VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT www.valdaiclub.com DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT Andrey Bezrukov, Olga Rebro, Andrey Sushentsov MOSCOW, JANUARY 2017 Authors Andrey Bezrukov Associate Professor, MGIMO University Olga Rebro Senior Analyst, Foreign Policy Advisory Group Andrey Sushentsov Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club; Director, Foreign Policy Advisory Group; Associate Professor, MGIMO University The views and opinions expressed in this Report are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Valdai Discussion Club, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Contents Eff ectiveness as a Public Communicator .............................................................................................................4 Organizational Capacity ...........................................................................................................................................5 Political Skill .............................................................................................................................................................6 Vision ..........................................................................................................................................................................6 Cognitive Style ..........................................................................................................................................................7 Emotional Intelligence ............................................................................................................................................8 TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY PROGRAM National Security and the Use of Force ................................................................................................................9 Security in the Middle East .....................................................................................................................................9 China and the Situation in the Asia-Pacifi c Region .......................................................................................... 10 NATO and European Security ...............................................................................................................................10 Relations with Russia and the Ukrainian Crisis ................................................................................................ 11 International Trade and Energy ........................................................................................................................... 11 Clinton and Trump in the Context of U.S. Political Cycles ............................................................................... 12 DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT The United States is entering a new stage Third, the White House will have in its development. Although the U.S. remains to look for ways to overcome the anti-elite the leading world power, recent events indicate that attitudes in society and respond to the “request it is not immune to instability and change. More for authenticity.” The elite will have to re-invent importantly, those changes caught the U.S. elite by themselves, abandoning the political mainstream surprise. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump, of recent decades and welcoming outsiders into its the two major parties’ presidential candidates, membership. offered a program to resolve the country’s underlying Finally, the key challenge will be to answer problems, and are themselves symptoms of those the question: What does U.S. leadership mean ills. Therefore, either outcome of the presidential in the 21st century and which resources election would have perpetuated the same overriding is the United States willing to allocate to maintain sense of uncertainty that characterizes the U.S. its dominance? The painful awareness that political system. And because the U.S. holds a special the global infl uence of the U.S. is weakening could position in the world, that uncertainty will spill over cause the elite to react in shock. into global processes and complicate an already In addition to these tasks, a number of serious complex picture. internal political constraints will hamper President- The 2016 electoral cycle in the U.S. elect Trump. coincided with a worsening of the country’s two The first is the deep political rift that greatest challenges. Signs are becoming the presidential candidates’ aggressive rhetoric only increasingly clear in the international arena that exacerbated. Donald Trump does not have a full- the global leadership role of the U.S. is diminishing. fl edged popular mandate. Internal political problems However, the greater danger is the emerging threat will absorb the attention of the new president more to the internal stability of the U.S. political system. than foreign policy issues. The anti-elite mood and protest vote upended The Republican majority in Congress will the U.S. electoral process and threaten to spread be critical of Trump. He will almost certainly beyond the political arena. It turned out that face political sabotage by the Democrats. the U.S. elite were unprepared for this challenge. In its turn, if Trump performs poorly as president, This largely explains why U.S. political scientist the Republicans will turn against him at the end Robert Legvold refers to this time as “the era of his term and back a new candidate for the next of small minds.” elections. Regardless of his political program, President- The new presidency will likely be marred elect Donald Trump will be hostage to several major by a series of criminal cases. The Republicans, problems that he cannot dismiss. in accordance with promises Trump made during First, he will have to respond to public his campaign, will demand an investigation into demand for social progress and a more equitable Clinton’s handling of classified information distribution of wealth. Failure to meet these demands funding given to the Democratic campaign by will radicalize the “left.” Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Ukraine. The Democrats, Second, he will have to form a new in turn, will seek to prosecute Trump for tax national consensus between the declining white evasion and sexual harassment. There is also majority and numerous minorities. The white some chance of an investigation into alleged population of America, including the majority “Russian interference” in the U.S. elections. of women, supports Donald Trump, while In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. might plunge the great majority of the non-white population into a constitutional crisis. does not. The failure to form a national What might await Russian-U.S. relations consensus could lead to a radicalization in the future? We have no solid grounds on which of the country’s political life. to base a prediction of President-elect Trump’s VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB REPORT, JANUARY 2017 3 DONALD TRUMP: A PROFESSIONAL PROFILE OF THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT positions on specific international issues. however, the U.S. is likely to be too focused on itself However, the election results are unlikely to cause for such an undertaking. a signifi cant change in U.S. national interests. After In addition, the West will gradually lift its forming his administration, the new president anti-Russian sanctions under pressure from those will focus on domestic issues. Foreign policy and who oppose them in the U.S. and EU. The Ukrainian relations with Russia will be largely dependent crisis propelled Russia toward China, to the detriment on events as they unfold. of U.S. long-term interests. The U.S. might well Despite his positive public rhetoric, Donald respond by enlisting Russia’s support in containing Trump has not made any concrete proposals China. Washington will gradually lift sanctions in an to improve relations with Russia. His presidency attempt to get Russia moving in the desired direction. brings a great deal of uncertainty to bilateral The Ukrainian question will gradually lose urgency. relations. The administration Trump is forming Using the methodology of U.S. political contains both individuals that have positive scientist Fred Greenstein, this report evaluates experience working with Moscow (such as Rex the basic parameters of Donald Trump’s psychological Tillerson, his choice for secretary of state), as well and professional competence – his effectiveness as typical “hawks” (such as the Cold War-minded as a public communicator, organizational capacity, General James Mattis, his pick for secretary political skill, vision, cognitive style, and emotional of defense). intelligence. In all likelihood, the two countries will maintain The second part of this report attempts their current policies toward each other for the next four to predict Donald Trump’s future foreign policy years. Relations might encounter some vicissitudes, platform based on his past statements, the people but it would make sense for Moscow and Washington he has chosen as advisors, and his supporters. to try to keep them on an even keel. This will depend The report also analyzes the domestic political on the specifi c circumstances of their relationship, and context of the new U.S. presidential administration on developments between other countries. and identifies the political constraints the new The Ukrainian crisis put an end to the period occupant of the White House will face. when it was generally thought that Russia and Finally, this report will formulate conclusions the West were pursuing a common goal of forming pertaining to Russia based on