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And Its Energy Implications ENERGYforum James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy • Rice University THE RISE OF CHINA AND ITS ENERGY IMPLICATIONS China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties Alan Troner JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties By Alan Troner PRESIDENT, ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY CONSULTING, AND CONSULTANT, BAKER INSTITUTE ENERGY FORUM, RICE UNIVERSITY PREPARED BY THE ENERGY FORUM OF THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AS PART OF THE STUDY THE RISE OF CHINA AND ITS ENERGY IMPLICATIONS DECEMBER 2, 2011 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties THIS PAPER WAS WRITTEN BY A RESEARCHER (OR RESEARCHERS) WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY STUDY. THE RESEARCH AND THE VIEWS EXPRESSED WITHIN ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL RESEARCHER(S) AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY OR THE STUDY SPONSORS. © 2011 BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY OF RICE UNIVERSITY THIS MATERIAL MAY BE QUOTED OR REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION, PROVIDED APPROPRIATE CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. 2 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Energy Forum of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy would like to thank The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, and the sponsors of the Baker Institute Energy Forum for their generous support of this program. The Energy Forum further acknowledges contributions by study researchers and writers. ENERGY FORUM MEMBERS ACCENTURE AFREN RESOURCES, USA AIR LIQUIDE U.S.A. LLC AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC. THE HONORABLE & MRS. HUSHANG ANSARY APACHE CORPORATION BAKER BOTTS L.L.P. BAKER HUGHES INCORPORATED BG GROUP PLC BP CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CHEVRON CORPORATION CONOCOPHILLIPS DELOITTE ENERGY FUTURE HOLDINGS CORPORATION EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION GENON ENERGY, INC. HESS CORPORATION HORIZON WIND ENERGY THE INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS, JAPAN (IEEJ) IPR – GDF SUEZ NORTH AMERICA KOCH SUPPLY AND TRADING KUWAIT PETROLEUM CORPORATION MARATHON OIL CORPORATION MORGAN STANLEY PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES USA INC. ROCKWATER ENERGY SOLUTIONS, INC. SCHLUMBERGER SHELL OIL COMPANY SHELL EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION CO. TOTAL E&P NEW VENTURES, INC. TOTAL E&P USA, INC. TUDOR, PICKERING, HOLT & CO. LLC VAALCO ENERGY, INC. WALLACE S. WILSON SUPPORTING MEMBERS DELOITTE MARKETPOINT LLC ENERGY INTELLIGENCE 3 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties ABOUT THE STUDY The Rise of China and Its Energy Implications is a major research initiative to investigate the implications of China’s oil and natural gas policies and domestic energy market development on global energy markets. This study focuses on the influence of China’s energy development on U.S. and Japanese energy security and global geopolitics. Utilizing geopolitical and economic modeling and scenario analysis, the study analyzes various possible outcomes for China’s domestic energy production and its future import levels. The study considers how trends in China’s energy use will influence U.S.-China relations and the level of involvement of the U.S. oil industry in China’s domestic energy sector. STUDY AUTHORS JOE BARNES JAMES D. COAN JAREER ELASS MAHMOUD A. EL–GAMAL PETER R. HARTLEY AMY MYERS JAFFE STEVEN W. LEWIS DAVID R. MARES KENNETH B. MEDLOCK III RONALD SOLIGO RICHARD J. STOLL ALAN TRONER 4 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties ABOUT THE ENERGY FORUM AT THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY The Baker Institute Energy Forum is a multifaceted center that promotes original, forward-looking discussion and research on the energy-related challenges facing our society in the 21st century. The mission of the Energy Forum is to promote the development of informed and realistic public policy choices in the energy area by educating policymakers and the public about important trends—both regional and global—that shape the nature of global energy markets and influence the quantity and security of vital supplies needed to fuel world economic growth and prosperity. The forum is one of several major foreign policy programs at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University. The mission of the Baker Institute is to help bridge the gap between the theory and practice of public policy by drawing together experts from academia, government, the media, business, and nongovernmental organizations. By involving both policymakers and scholars, the institute seeks to improve the debate on selected public policy issues and make a difference in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of public policy. JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY – MS 40 P.O. BOX 1892 HOUSTON, TX 77251–1892 USA HTTP://WWW.BAKERINSTITUTE.ORG [email protected] 5 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties ABOUT THE INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS, JAPAN The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), was established in June 1966 and specializes in research activities in the area of energy from the viewpoint of Japan’s national economy in a bid to contribute to sound development of Japanese energy supply and consumption industries and to the improvement of domestic welfare by objectively analyzing energy problems and providing basic data, information and the reports necessary for policy formulation. With the diversification of social needs during the three and a half decades of its operation, IEEJ has expanded its scope of research activities to include such topics as environmental problems and international cooperation closely related to energy. The Energy Data and Modeling Center (EDMC), which merged with the IEEJ in July 1999, was established in October 1984 as an IEEJ-affiliated organization to carry out such tasks as the development of energy data bases, the building of various energy models, and the econometric analyses of energy. THE INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS, JAPAN INUI BUILDING KACHIDOKI 10TH, 11TH, AND 16TH FLOOR 13-1, KACHIDOKI 1–CHOME CHUO-KU, TOKYO 104–0054 JAPAN HTTP://ENEKEN.IEEJ.OR.JP/EN/ 6 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties ABOUT THE AUTHOR ALAN TRONER President, Asia Pacific Energy Consulting Consultant, Baker Institute Energy Forum, Rice University Alan Troner is president of Asia Pacific Energy Consulting (APEC), a Houston-based tactical consulting company focusing on commercial oil and natural gas issues for the Asia Pacific and the Mideast Gulf since 1995. Troner has been a contributor to the Baker Institute Energy Forum since 1997. He is author of numerous commercial and academic studies on Asia Pacific/Mideast energy issues, such as the future of liquefied natural gas and gas-to-liquids, oil and oil products trade in Asia, Asian oil refining, and Mideast Gulf energy export trends. Troner was a joint recipient, with Amy Myers Jaffe, of the 1994 International Association of Energy Economics award for energy journalism; he was also a fellow of the East-West Center in Honolulu from 1987 to 1988. Troner received a B.A. in history from Stony Brook University in 1977 and an M.A. in economic geography from the University of Hawaii in 1988. 7 (This page intentionally left blank.) China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties I. Introduction1 Even a cursory glance across the vast array of forecasts, outlooks, and annual reviews that fill the news at the start of every new year reveals how much China looms large in the energy world. While the Western world remained mired in recession, China boomed and this single country market is increasingly seen not only as the leader of Asia-Pacific energy trends, but the future global epicenter for energy demand. In early 2011, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation projected crude oil consumption would rise 6% in 2011, a dizzying pace of growth in a global economy only now recovering from the crash of 2008. Yet the group predicted that natural gas consumption would rise this year by 15%.2 Already Asia Pacific’s largest refiner and oil consumer and the world’s largest coal user, China seems poised to shape not only regional oil, gas, and coal sectors, but also energy worldwide. And since Beijing increasingly draws on imported oil, gas, and now coal, according to the government’s National Energy Administration (NEA), this market will top 2010’s coal imports of 146 million metric tons per annum (MM MTA)3—Beijing’s long run of sustained economic growth has not only made it the arbiter of regional energy patterns, but a major shaper of energy trends worldwide. China will ramp up conventional fuel imports and production to continue to power economic growth, despite trumpeted efforts to develop clean, renewable, and alternative energy. The basic energy statistics reported remain astonishing. The NEA predicted for 2011: Accelerated development of 14 separate coal mining centers will provide sufficient supply to keep up with national demand. Coal accounted in 2010 for a higher percentage of base energy supply in this market than any other major economy, making up 70% of the country’s base energy use and 80% of power generation fuel. 9 China’s Oil Sector: Trends and Uncertainties This coal, in large part, will underpin forecast power demand growth of “only” 9% in 2011, with power demand reaching a total of 4.5 trillion kilowatt-hours (KwH) after a 2010 rise of 14.6%. Apparent oil demand would rise 12.3% to 449 MM MTA, or 8.98 million barrels per day (b/d). Crude imports would continue to grow despite 2010’s unusually large gain of 6.9%. In 2010, the NEA said crude imports rose 12.5% to 239.3 MM MTA, or nearly 4.79 million b/d, and domestic oil output increased to 203 MM MTA, or 4.06 million b/d. Even greater gains were seen in gas.
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