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ED209124.Pdf DOCUMENT RESORE SO 013 627 .. ED 209 124 AUTHOR Brown, Lester R. TITLE Building a Sustainable Society. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. iSPONS AGENCY United Nations Fund for Population Activities, New York, N.Y. REPORT NO ISBN-0-393-01482-7 PUB DATE 81 NOTE 440p. AVAILABLE FROM W.W. Norton 6 Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110 ($14.95 clothbound). ROBS PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from F.DS. DESCRIPTORS *Conservation (Environment); Energy; Food; *Futures (of Society) ; Global Approach; Life Style; Natural Resources; Population Growth; Social Change; Social Problems; Soil Conservation; Urbanization; Values; *World Affairs; *World Problems TnENTIFIERS Oil ABSTRACT This publication discusses worldwide problems and issues of concern. There are two major parts. Bart Ideals with "Converging Demands." For those who regularly read theWorldwatch Papers, much of the material in this sectionwill be familiar. The matt:Jai is included here particularly for thesake of those readers abroad who do not have ready access to theInstitute's publications. Discussed are eiosion, biological systems under pressure,oil, food, and emerging economic and socialstresses. Part II, "The Path to Sustainability," comprises approaImately two-thirAs of tae publication. A number of issues are examinedincluding population growth, conservation of natural resources,renewable energy (e.g. wood, wind, and falling water), and changingvalues. The shape of a sustainable society--a sustainable transportationsystem, the resurgence of agriculture, newindustries and jobs, urbanization, greater local self reliance, andsimpler life styles--is examined. The means of transition to thissustainable society and the institutional challenges are discussed. Thepublication concludes with a subject finder.(Author/RM) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by RIMS are the best that can bemade from the original document. *********************************************************************** us. stosinisiit EDUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EbifC4110111" .EDEJCAilONPal RESOURCES INFORMATION` 'CENTER (ERIC) C) TN'S .ciocurnent has beert..reprOiluried as . received from tlie;persori - oreaniastiol XNlimir changes have' been made to improve reproduct.on _ points Of view ciopiniensstated inNit docii ment do not necessanly representOfficial NIE position or O()Iity; BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY "PERMISSIONTOREPRODUCE THIS MATERIAL IN MICROFICHE ONLY o HAS BEEN GRANTED BY by Lester R. Brown TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)." A Worldwatch Institute Book W.W. Norton & Company New York London Copyright 1981 by Worldwatch Institute Published simultaneously in Canada* dairyL',McLeod Limited. Toronto. Printed in the United States of America AllRights Reserved: First Editwm Library of Congress Cataloging inPublication Data 1311A11, Later Ruisell, 1934- Building asustainable society. "A Worldwitch Institute boa." Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Economic pOlicy. I. WorldWitchInstitute. IL Title. HD32:13733 1981 338.9 ISBN a-393-01482-1 W. W, Norton at Company, Inc. 50o Fifth Avenue, NewYork, N.Y. so, to W. W. Norton & Company Ltd. 25 New StreetSquare,- London EC4A 3NT 1234567890 3 To Brian- and-Brenda-- and generations to come O ontents .Preface. .xi IntroduCtion 3 'NrtI. Oiriverging Demands z.Eroding the Base of Civilization 13- ,TheiHistorie al. Expansion ofCropland Thinning Topsoil 14 Spreading Deserts: TheHuman Hand 22 The Loss of IrrigatedLand . Conversion of Cropland 24 to Nonfarm Uses 27 The Cropland Prospect 31 3..Biological:Systems underPressure 35 Deforesting.the Earth 36 Deep Trouble in :OceanicFisheries ztc? Crasskinds for Three BillionRuminants Per Capita "ConsumptionTrends 45 Future Resource Trends 49 52 .0i1..-TheSafety Valve 54, _ 4 Twilight-of-the-Kg-Cof . The Rise-of Oil 57 58 1.4 Contents 6o Culture Our Petroleum §? The Emergenceof OPEC 68 Oil `The Decline of , 73 Giving Up onNuclear Power '81 -Piak TheStopgap 85 Beyond the Ageof Oil 89 5. TheChanging FoodProspect 90 Momentum_ The Lass of 92 Breadbasket ,Tlie North American 95 Crowing FoodInsecurity loo Land ProductivityTrends zo§ for Land Substituting Fertilizer 104 The - Crain-Livestock Economy io8 The NewFood-Fuel Competition :11 The Food PriceProspect Social Stresses 114 6. EmergingEconomic and "5 CompetingDemands 117 Rereading Ritardo 121 A NewSource of Inflation 126 Slower EconomicGrowth 128 Rising Unemployment 132 Social' Stresses Part II.The Path toSustainability Timetable 139. 7.Population:.AStabilization 141 The ExistingProjections 142 The ChangingBackdrop 144 A- StabilizationTimetable 151 The FamilyPlanning Gap-, and Fertility 154 Social Improvement -157 Incentives forSmaller Families 158 China's One-ChildFamily Program Contents Inflation as a Contraceptive Force 161 A Gradual Awakening 16,3 8.Preserving Our Re Source Underpinnings 165 Land-Use- Planning .166 Ensuring. Soil Security 171 Stabilizing-biologica7 Systems 175 Reforesting the Earth 180 Preserving the Web of Life 186 Beyond the Throwaway Society 189 Conserving Energy 195 9.Renewable, Energy: Turning to the Sun 203 Wood as a Fuel 204 Energy from Waste 207 Planting Energy Crops 2 12 Falling Water 217 Harnessing the Wind 222 Tapping_ the Earth's Heat 226 Rooftops as Collectors 230 Electricity from Sunlight 233 Solar Architecture 237 The Renewable Energy Potential 242 10. The Shape of a Sustainable Society 247 The Changing Global Energy Budget 248 A Sustainable Transportation System 254 The Resurgence of Agriculture 260 New Industries, New fobs 263 The Future of Urbanization 268 Simpler Life-styles among the Affluent 27i'4 Third World Reinforcement 275 'Greater Local Self-Reliance 278 From Growth to Sustainability 280 r Z: Contents . i i. The Means of Transition 1 284 Urgency of ilie Transition 1 285, Role-of the Market 287 Ftnancitil Carrots and Sticks 291 Changer-through Regulationv 294 Financing the Transition ' 298 Reorienting R&D Programs\ 306 The Kole of Leadership 311 12. The InstitutionalChallenge 318 Overcoming Vested Interests 319 The Role of Corporations 322 Religions: An Ecological. Theology 327 Universities: Getting Involved 334 ' Public Interest Groups 338 The'Communications Media 344 13. ChangingValues and Shifting Priorities 349 Values in Transition 350 Voluntary Simplicity 354 Conspicuous Frugality 356 4)jiity. The Two Dimensions 358 Redefining National Security , 361 A New Econoinic Yardstick 365 A Sense of Excitement . 369 213 Notes Acknowlegments 413 Index 417 8 Preface This book is not aitisolated effort-to dismiss the sustainable society, but rather` part of the continuing research program of the 'Worldwatch Institute. For those who regularly read the Worldwatch Papers, much of the material in the early chapters on converging demands will be familiar. Thematerial is in- cluded'here- particularly for the sake of those readers abroad who do not,have ready access. to the InStitutc's other publica- tions. Those: familiar with the issues may want to go directly In:dr the Introduction to Part II, concentrating rat; the two; thirds, of the book that is preFriptive. Although the issues .addrdsed here are the same as those covered in the early years of Worldwatch, the perspective is far different. When the Institute began in early 1975, there was little appreCiation of the firewood crisis that was emerging in the Third World. In Washington, the official position was that OPEC's 1973 increase; in the price of oil was artificially high and that it would shortly return to a more normal level. There was scant acknowledgment of the extent of soil erosion, a probleth now 'recognized as worldwide. It was still hoped that the leveling off of the world fish catch in the early seventies was but a temporary interruption in a long-term increase.At that time there was little understanding of the relationship between global deforestation, and lumber prices and the cost xii: Preface of housing. Double-digit global inflation was believed to be an aberration, a result of the unwarranted- OPEC oil-price in- crease. Now, in 1981, the perspective has changed. Awareness of these problems is far more widespread. Publication during the seventies of such studies as The Limits to Growth, Mankind at the Turning Point, Soft Energy Paths, and EnergyFuture drew attention to the forces that threaten to undermine the economy, such as environmental deteriorationand oil-reserve depletion, and to the need to move in new directions. Nearly a decade of public discussionand debate of the issues was capped with the release of the U.S. goverment's Global 2000 Report in thesummer,of 1980. With this official recognition of the issues, the time has come to devise a response, to outline the steps to a sustainable society. The picture of a sustainable society that is drawn here has of necessity been painted withbroad brush. It could not be otherwise if the analysis were to be confined to a single volume. The purpose is to describe the essential character of a sustain: able society, to provide a sense of direction for planners and policYmakers who are too busy to do all the reading and.; re- search needed to %make decisions. Although this book was written in the urban setting of Washington,1D.C.,and taps the vast flows of information from all over the world that converge in a major capital, it also was shaped by my own agricultural roots. The analysis of trendsand events. reflects not only a decade of farming duringmy.,high school and college years, but
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