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Weekly Market Reports Providing Insider News and Knowledge to Investors Market Report: Trying to build a base for the broad market and pot stocks December 10, 2018 An overview of insider sentiment and market trends with daily updates of indicator readings and top-50 tables of companies with net insider buying or selling. INK Canadian Insider Price Index S&P/TSX Venture Index INK Sentiment Indicator* INK Venture Sentiment Indicator* (TSX-Listed Stocks) (TSX Venture-Listed Stocks) INK Sentiment Indicator: 248.0% INK Venture Sentiment Indicator: 390.9% Indicator Reading: Undervalued Indicator Reading: Undervalued * Indicators represent companies with buy only transactions divided by companies with sell only transactions of direct ownership equity securities in the public market by officers and directors (exclusive of officers and directors of subsidiaries) filed over the last 60 days. The chart line shows insider sentiment trends by connecting the historic indicator daily readings going back one year. Transactions filed on Saturday and Sunday are aggregated into Friday's number. Information in this report does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. Report Tutorial Video: Samplehttp://www.inkresearch.com/pdf_tutorial/index.html English About INK Research Through our PDF reports, as well as our alerts, interactive charting and analytical services delivered via www.inkresearch.com, INK provides insider news and knowledge to investors. For sales and trial subscription information please contact [email protected] or call us at 604-669-4465 #333. See important disclaimer on last page. www.inkresearch.com Page 1/9 Providing Insider News and Knowledge to Investors December 10, 2018 Overview December 10, 2018 - Although one week does not make a trend, given recent market carnage, the bulls can be forgiven if they point to some positive developments in the Canadian market last week. Nicholas Winton who writes a weekly technical outlook for the INK Canadian Insider Index noted in his Monday write up that the index (-0.8%) outperformed US markets last week, including the S&P 500 (-4.6%). We would add that the Index also outperformed the large-cap S&P/TSX 60 Index (-2.8%). Both developments are notable. In 2008, stocks outside the United States started to stabilize first. Meanwhile, as we explained in our November 19th report (Are we close to turning the corner?), we will have more confidence that the global selling tide is over once the INK CIN Index starts to outperform large-caps which are seen as a relative area of safety during growth scares. A potential catalyst for a revival in global equities could be a signal from the Federal Reserve that it has ended its tightening campaign. At this point, the central bank is trying to keep its options open for both a December rate hike and additional hikes next year. For investors, those options equate to uncertainty which is only being compounded by ongoing trade friction between the United States and China. With that in mind, the relative outperformance of the INK CIN Index is still too tentative to draw any conclusions about a solid base for stocks being established. Moreover, it seems as if our indicator is trying to make up its mind whether or not more significant share price weakness is on the way. While a counter-rally from oversold conditions is overdue, we will need to see at least a month of INK CIN Index outperformance against the TSX 60 combined with a peak in our INK Sentiment Indicator to have firm conviction that a strong base of support for stocks has been built. Last week, oil & gas and gold stocks led the INK CIN Index with Kirkland Lake Gold (Sunny; KL) +13.0%, Yangarra Resources (Mixed; YGR) +8.5%, and Wesdome Gold Mines (Sunny; WDO) +8.4% leading the way. Lagging was Calfrac Well Services (Mixed; CFW) -10.9% which announced a capital spending plan of $190 million for 2019. Most of the spending will go to maintenance capital outside of Canada. The oil & gas service company was followed by consumer stocks AutoCanada (Mostly Sunny; ACQ), -13.2%, and BRP (Mixed; DOO), -17.4%, which were not finding a lot of love on the prospect of higher rates and related fears of a potentially slower economy. Core Theme Updates: #2 Taking a diversified approach to growth and #3 Watching for stock-specific opportunities in Healthcare and Technology In some more encouraging news for the bulls, our Industrials Indicator has peaked, meaning that we have seen peak insider buying in the sector. Such peaks often coincide with important bases being formed. As such, we are upgrading the sector to undervalued. One of the stocks leading the charge in terms of insider buying in the sector is Morning INK stock Badger Daylighting (Sunny; BAD) which we featured on November 26th. The highest INK Edge ranked stock in the sector is The Caldwell Partners International (Sunny; CWL). In the Healthcare sector, insider sentiment is soaring in the Pharmaceuticals industry, home of many cannabis stocks. Our 30-day Pharma Indicator moved above 400% last week, the highest point since early September 2017. As we explained in our October Top 20 Gold Stock Report, the indicator seems to have a decent ability to time the group's highs and lows. In October, it turned down, signalling peak insider selling which correctly signalled an important near-term top established in the group. Now we appear to be close to just the opposite. We are on the verge of peak insider buying which could mean that a tradable base is being built in the group. We are not quite there yet, but if we see a peak in buying during the week, we will report on it in our daily morning report and highlight one or two names in the group that make our screens. Most active public-market buying insiders last week From December 3rd to 7th as filed and reported by mid-day December 8th (000's): David Binet buys $1,547 Thomson Reuters (Mixed; TRI) Cole Caciavillani buys $1,029 Aphria (Mixed; APHA) Vic Neufeld buys $1,026 Aphria John Cervini buysSample $1,000 Aphria C.J. Prieur buys $940 Manulife Financial (Mixed; MFC) Additional results are available on the CA Screening page of the INK Research website. Key Investment Themes See important disclaimer on last page. www.inkresearch.com Page 2/9 #1 Taking a diversified approach to growth We replaced our first theme "Positioned for late cycle global growth" with "Taking a diversified approach to growth." The change is driven by a reduction in exposure to economically-sensitive stocks in the two most economically-sensitive sectors, Energy and Basic Materials in the latest INK CIN rebalancing. The Energy sector dropped to 14% from 15.5% currently. While exposure to the Basic Materials sector jumped to 16% from 12%, the increase is due to the arrival of three new gold stocks which can be viewed as hedges against a stagflationary slowdown or bust. There are also some subtle changes worth noting in the remaining two economically-sensitive sectors. We see a financially conservative tilt within Industrials as plane and train maker Bombardier is replaced by soon-to-be cash-rich Aimia (Sunny; AIM). Within Consumer Cyclicals, supply chain companies Airboss of America (Mixed; BOS) and Magna International (Mixed; MG) have been replaced by domestic consumer-focused Cineplex (Mostly Sunny; CGX) and MTY Food Group (Mostly Sunny; MTY). #2 Hedging bad outcomes with gold and defensive stocks The Fed traditionally has a tricky time avoiding a recession when it is raising rates. This time it has to not only get it right on the pace of rate hikes but also the tempo of its asset reductions. So, it really is different this time. That alone could mean lower stock prices in the short-term if investors demand that valuations reset lower in order to make risk-taking more attractive. Should such an environment unfold, gold stocks could outperform as gold historically has a negative correlation with stock returns. Meanwhile, the INK CIN Index continues to maintain a decent exposure to REITs or REIT operators, a group that has the potential to do well during the early stages of rising price inflation or if interest rates start to decline. Based on our indicators, insiders also see value in the Utilities sector, a group that should do well once long-term rates have peaked. #3 Watching for stock-specific opportunities in Healthcare and Technology Based on the healthy level of our Technology Indicator we are adding the sector to this theme as one to watch for stock specific opportunities. We continue to be on the lookout for stocks in Healthcare that have sunny outlooks. When it comes to marijuana stocks, we would consider hedging any long exposure with at least a partial short position in the Horizons Medical Marijuana ETF (HMMJ). #4 Waiting for better times ahead for the Canadian oil patch We replaced "Expecting better for the Canadian oil patch" with "Waiting for better times." This is based on reduced exposure to Energy stocks in the INK CIN Index as well as a relatively tepid response by insiders to the recent pullback in sector share prices. We have also downgraded this theme to the fourth spot on our list. Nevertheless, insiders continue to signal that stock-specific value situations exist for contrarian investors with investment horizons over one year. INK CIN Index Rebalancing and the INK Edge Outlook Every November and May we rank all the names in our INK CIN Index stock selection pool (about 700 TSX-listed names) using our rules-based INK Edge outlook process which looks at a stock's value, insider commitment, and price momentum.
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