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New York State Thruway Traffic and Revenue Report Including a Review of the Physical Condition of the Thruway System

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New York State Thruway Traffic and Revenue Report Including a Review of the Physical Condition of the Thruway System New York State Thruway Traffic and Revenue Report Including a Review of the Physical Condition of the Thruway System October 7, 2019 Prepared for: New York State Thruway Authority Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services, Inc. Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................. 1 2.0 THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY SYSTEM .............................................................. 2 2.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................ 2 2.2 ROADWAYS ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 BRIDGES .......................................................................................................................... 5 2.4 SERVICE AREAS AND BUILDINGS ................................................................................ 6 2.5 SAFETY, INCIDENT RESPONSE AND TRAVELER INFORMATION SYSTEMS ........... 7 2.6 ANNUAL ROUTINE MAINTENANCE ACTIVITIES ........................................................... 8 2.7 PHYSICAL CONDITION OF THE THRUWAY’S INFRASTRUCTURE ............................. 9 2.7.1 New York Division ........................................................................................... 9 2.7.2 Albany Division .............................................................................................. 10 2.7.3 Syracuse Division .......................................................................................... 11 2.7.4 Buffalo Division .............................................................................................. 11 2.7.5 Statewide ....................................................................................................... 12 2.7.6 Opinion .......................................................................................................... 12 3.0 ECONOMIC BACKDROP AND OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE ................................... 13 3.1 RECENT MACROECONOMIC TRENDS ........................................................................ 13 3.1.1 Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................ 13 3.1.2 Industrial Production Index ............................................................................ 14 3.1.3 Trends in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), National and New York State ....... 15 3.1.4 National Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) vs. Gas Prices (Fuel Costs) ............ 17 3.1.5 Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................... 18 3.2 SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS ..................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................ 20 3.2.2 Industrial Production Index ............................................................................ 21 3.2.3 Fuel Cost Trends ........................................................................................... 21 3.2.4 Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................... 23 3.3 LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS ....................................................................... 23 3.3.1 Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production Index ............................. 23 3.3.2 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) ....................................................................... 23 3.3.3 Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................... 24 4.0 CAPITAL PROGRAM ..................................................................................................... 25 4.1 2019-2024 CAPITAL PROGRAM DETAILS ................................................................... 25 4.2 THE NEW NY BRIDGE PROJECT / GOVERNOR MARIO M. CUOMO BRIDGE .......... 26 4.3 HISTORICAL AND PLANNED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES ........................................... 27 4.4 THE IMPACT OF THE CAPITAL PROGRAM ON CONDITIONS ................................... 30 5.0 OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE EXPENSES .......................................................... 32 6.0 DEBT SERVICE EXPENSES ......................................................................................... 34 i 7.0 TRAFFIC AND REVENUES ........................................................................................... 36 7.1 HISTORICAL TOTAL THRUWAY TRAFFIC ................................................................... 36 7.2 DEMOGRAPHICS OF TOLL PAYING PATRONS .......................................................... 37 7.3 TOLL RATES .................................................................................................................. 39 7.3.1 Recent History of Toll Adjustments on the Thruway System ......................... 40 7.3.2 Current Toll Rates on the Thruway System ................................................... 40 7.3.3 Comparison of Thruway Toll Rates to Other Regional Toll Facilities ............ 41 7.4 FORECAST METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................... 45 7.4.1 Overview of Base Forecasting Methodology ................................................. 45 7.4.2 Forecasting Methodology for Conversion to AETC ....................................... 45 7.5 HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED TRAFFIC AND TOLL REVENUE ........................... 46 7.6 OTHER REVENUES/TOTAL REVENUES ..................................................................... 49 8.0 FLOW OF FUNDS .......................................................................................................... 52 8.1 HISTORICAL ................................................................................................................... 52 8.2 MEETING THE AUTHORITY’S FUTURE REVENUE NEEDS ....................................... 52 9.0 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 54 10.0 LIMITS AND DISCLAIMERS .......................................................................................... 55 APPENDIX: HISTORICAL TRAFFIC AND REVENUE BY FACILITY ....................................... 57 ii List of Figures Figure 1: New York State Thruway Toll Systems ......................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Historical Annual, 1980 – 2019 Q2.................. 14 Figure 3: Industrial Production Index (IPI), Historical Monthly, January 2007 – July 2019 ......... 15 Figure 4: Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) – National, Historical 12-month Moving Average, 1971 – 2019 ................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 5: Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) – New York, Historical 12-month Moving Average, 1970 – 2017 .................................................................................................. 17 Figure 6: National Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) vs. Real Gas Prices, Historical 12- month Moving Average, Indexed to January 1990, 1990 – 2019 ................................. 18 Figure 7: Civilian Unemployment Rate, National vs. New York State, Historical Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, January 2000 – July 2019 .......................................................... 19 Figure 8: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Short-term Forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ........ 20 Figure 9: Industrial Production Index (IPI), Short-term Forecasts for 2019 and 2020................. 21 Figure 10: U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices, Historical and Short-term Forecasts, 2016 – 2020 ................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 11: Crude Oil Prices, Historical and Short-term Forecasts, with Confidence Intervals, 2014 – 2020 .................................................................................................. 23 Figure 12: New NY Bridge Project .............................................................................................. 27 Figure 13: Historical and Forecasted Thruway Pavement Distress Indices (PDI), 2005- 2024 ............................................................................................................................. 31 Figure 14: Historical and Forecasted Thruway Bridge Condition Ratings, 1990-2024 ............... 31 Figure 15: Historical Thruway Traffic Volumes ........................................................................... 36 Figure 16: 2018 System Wide Traffic and Revenue Distribution ................................................ 37 Figure 17: 2018 Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle Traffic Distribution by Facility ........... 38 Figure 18: Distribution of 2018 Toll Revenues by Thruway Facility ............................................ 39 Figure 19: Peak Toll Rates Per-Mile on Toll Roads in the Northeastern Quadrant of U.S., Passenger Cars ................................................................................................... 42 Figure 20: Peak Toll Rates Per-Mile on Toll Roads in the Northeastern Quadrant of U.S, 5-Axle Trucks ............................................................................................................... 43 Figure 21: Round Trip Toll Rates on Major Toll Crossings in the Northeast, Passenger Cars .............................................................................................................................
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