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The 2003 Iraq War and George W. Bush's Grand Strategy of Primacy

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The 2003 Iraq War and George W. Bush's Grand Strategy of Primacy University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies The Vault: Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2020-12-10 Wounded Hegemon: The 2003 Iraq War and George W. Bush's Grand Strategy of Primacy Veneracion, Paulo A. Veneracion, P. A. (2020). Wounded Hegemon: The 2003 Iraq War and George W. Bush's Grand Strategy of Primacy (Unpublished master's thesis). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. http://hdl.handle.net/1880/112839 master thesis University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Wounded Hegemon: The 2003 Iraq War and George W. Bush’s Grand Strategy of Primacy by Paulo A. Veneracion A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS GRADUATE PROGRAM IN POLITICAL SCIENCE CALGARY, ALBERTA DECEMBER, 2020 © Paulo A. Veneracion 2020 Abstract The 2003 Iraq War stands as one of the most consequential events in the post-Cold War period and yet its causes remain its least understood aspect. This project aims to add to existing discussions by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the war. Using neoclassical realism as its analytical lens, this project argues that the 2003 Iraq War occurred largely as a result of American hegemony combined with the effects of the September 11 terror attacks on the George W. Bush administration. American hegemony set broad parameters for US foreign policy behaviour while September 11 served as the proximate cause. The terror attacks engendered a deep sense of homeland vulnerability that entailed the need to reaffirm American primacy in the international system. The US under George W. Bush saw itself as a wounded hegemon that needed to both tame its external security environment and re-establish its place in the world. In this respect, September 11 shed a new light on Saddam Hussein, his potential weapons of mass destruction, and the possibility that he could either use these weapons directly or pass them on to terrorists. The Bush administration believed that defeating Hussein and transforming Iraq would not only eliminate a longstanding threat and potential source of weapons of mass destruction for terrorists, it would also demonstrate America’s material power and the power of American values. This demonstration, in turn, would restore America’s credibility, prestige, and deterrent threat – it would allay the sense of domestic vulnerability that came as a result of September 11. The factors that formed the decision to invade also shaped the strategy applied in its pursuit. The Iraq War and the Bush administration’s grand strategy of primacy stood on the administration’s belief that America possessed the unparalleled capacity to remake a country in its image. ii Preface This thesis is original, unpublished, independent work by Paulo A. Veneracion. The information contained within comes from academic research. This project consults several published works and scholarly articles by renowned experts in the fields of Political Science, International Relations, and US Foreign and Security Policy. It also examines a number of primary and secondary sources that deal with past and current US and world affairs. iii Acknowledgements Above all, I would like to thank my thesis supervisor and one of my thesis examiners, Dr. Terry Terriff, for his guidance and patience. Beyond his supervision, his teachings in US security policy provided the foundations of my work. My time as his student and his former teaching assistant, in addition to the advice that he has provided me over the years, has certainly imbued me with invaluable life skills and experience. I also sincerely thank my other thesis examiners, Dr. James Keeley and Dr. Frank Towers, as well as Dr. Anthony Sayers, who served as the neutral chair. My oral thesis examination serves as a milestone and once-in-a lifetime experience that I will truly remember and cherish. I would also like to thank my other professors in the University of Calgary’s Department of Political Science in addition to those mentioned above. Most notably, I would like to acknowledge Dr. Robert Huebert, Dr. Maureen Hiebert, Dr. Joshua Goldstein, and Dr. Pablo Policzer, to name a few. In one way or another, their courses and seminars helped shape my ideas and arguments. I would not have been able to write this without the knowledge and skills that I have gained throughout my time as an undergraduate and graduate student at the department. iv Dedication I dedicate this thesis to my family, friends, and loved ones, especially my wife, Lia, and my parents, Benjamin and Pina. They have all pushed me hard and carried me through one of the most difficult tasks I have ever undertaken. I would not be where I am today without them. I also dedicate this to my paternal and maternal grandmothers, Valeriana and Lolita, respectively, who both deserve special mentions for all the times that they prodded me – whether in person or through videocall – to finish my work. Finally, I also dedicate this to the huge backlog of video games that I will now hopefully get to play. v Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ii Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... iv Dedication ...................................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... vi Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Neoclassical Realism................................................................................................ 10 Why Neoclassical Realism? ................................................................................................................ 41 Chapter 3: Key Structural Factor – American Hegemony and the Unipolar Order ........... 48 Chapter 4: 9/11 Shocks and the Key Intervening Variable .................................................... 54 Key Intervening Variable – Vulnerability and Restoring American Primacy ............................... 57 Chapter 5: Domestic and Individual-level Factors that Reinforced the Key Intervening Variable ........................................................................................................................................ 60 Bush’s Post-9/11 Worldview............................................................................................................... 61 Convergence of Views Within the Bush Foreign Policy Executive .................................................. 91 9/11 Paradox of Power and Perceptions .......................................................................................... 119 How These Factors Ultimately Led to 2003 Iraq War ................................................................... 133 Chapter 6: Dependent Variable – Operation Iraqi Freedom and the Bush Doctrine ........ 137 Unilateralism ..................................................................................................................................... 139 Pre-emption ....................................................................................................................................... 141 Forcible Democratic Regime Change .............................................................................................. 142 American Primacy ............................................................................................................................ 144 Chapter 7: Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 148 vi Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 155 vii Chapter 1: Introduction What caused the 2003 Iraq War? This question has become a source of much debate and contention between scholars, critics, and observers. Some have argued that the war emerged out of a massive intelligence failure, or worse, outright deception. Some have pointed to the desire to control Iraq’s oil. Others have claimed that plans to democratize Iraq through force have been underway well before George W. Bush’s presidency, and that the terror attacks of 11 September 2001 merely served as a catalyst, perhaps even a convenient excuse. Others have speculated that the war constituted a first step in an imperial bid to spread democracy, toppling and transforming authoritarian governments in the Middle East and beyond. Add to that outlandish claims about a cabal of ideologues who had successfully captured the highest levels of America’s foreign policy apparatus thereby setting these aims in motion. The difficulty
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