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Panel 2C+ 3C: Great Power Engagement in the North Atlantic

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Panel 2C+ 3C: Great Power Engagement in the North Atlantic Panel 2C+ 3C: Great Power Engagement in the North Atlantic, 1700s till the Present Day: International Systemic Drivers and Network Path-Dependencies, I-II Format: Paper panel in English Conveners: Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen & Mariia Kobzeva Panel 2C+ 3C abstract: The Kingdom of Denmark is divided between the Continental European Denmark, historically in a German sphere of influence, and the North Atlantic, historically in an Anglo-American sphere of influence. Great power conflict and engagement in the North Atlantic has historically and continue to put enormous strain on the cohesion of the Realm. It is therefore important for Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland – as well as third parties – to understand historical and current great power dynamics and engagements in the North Atlantic. The panels introduce Danish, Faroese and Greenlandic strategic learning from history for policymaking. The North Atlantic has been the object of British and French strategic interests since at least the 1700s showing geostrategic continuity with lessons for today. The Cold War shaped the North Atlantic with a heavy American footprint, but also especially Soviet economic, cultural and political engagement of Iceland and the Faroe Islands. Cold War networks continue to influence Russian and Chinese relations with Iceland as the hub of the North Atlantic. Russia remains economically engaged especially in North Atlantic marine economy. China is rapidly developing its political, scientific, economic and technological engagement. Great power engagement and competition in these very small or microstate polities is linked to individuals and individual projects. Panel 2C Paper 10.1 Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen: Danish/Faroese/Greenlandic Strategic Learning from North Atlantic Great Power History Paper 10.2 Mariia Kobzeva: Chinese and Russian involvement in the West Nordic region: from Cold War legacy to future trends Paper 10.3 Sumarlidi IsleiFsson: Networks, the small state of Iceland and relations with the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China Paper 10.4 Andrey Krivorotov: U.S. AND CHINA ENGAGEMENT IN GREENLAND – SEEN FROM RUSSIA Paper 10.5 Agne Cepinskyte & Michael Paul: Arctic Security Environment in Flux: From ‘Zone of Peace’ to Security Dilemma Panel 3C Paper 11.1 Rasmus Leander Nielsen: Arctic Exceptionalism vs. Looming Arctic Security Dilemma? The Case of the Kingdom of Denmark in the Midst of Fluctuating Power Politics Dynamics in the High North Paper 11.2 Alexander Sergunin: NATO-Russian renewed naval confrontation in the GIUK Gap: the role of Greenland and Denmark Paper 11.3 Chuanxing Wang: More of Great Power Continual Post-Cold War Coordination or Reversal to Disruptive Strategic Competition in the Arctic Connecting the Northern Atlantic to the Northern Pacific Nowadays? Paper 11.4 Anna Agnarsdóttir: (tba) Paper 11.5 Marc Lanteigne og Mingming Shi: (tba) Paper 10.1 abstract Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen: Danish/Faroese/Greenlandic Strategic Learning from North Atlantic Great Power History The Kingdom of Denmark is stretched between Denmark as a small Continental European state at the entrance of the Baltic containing 98% of the population and economic activity and vast North Atlantic autonomies, the Faroe Islands and Greenland (and historically Iceland) covering 98% of the Kingdom’s territory. Denmark historically and currently falls into a German (-French) sphere of influence, while the North Atlantic falls into an Anglo-American sphere of influence. During the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and II, Denmark and the North Atlantic were separated driving internal relations of the Kingdom. Constitutional stability in the Realm depend on great power stability. History suggests great risk to the Realm from current widening transatlantic divide between German/French-dominated Continental Europe (EU) and UK (Brexit) and USA (Trump). This risk is compounded by power transition from West to East and emerging Sino-American bipolarity. What are historical strategic lessons for current and future Danish/Faroese/Greenlandic policy? Paper 10.2 abstract Mariia Kobzeva: Chinese and Russian involvement in the West Nordic region: from Cold War legacy to future trends Since the Cold War, the West Nordic region remains a sphere of special concern for both China and Russia. Today, the independent political line of the region and its position on the new shipping routes break new ground for cooperation with the two states. In this regard, it is worth understanding whether the current cooperation holds historical trends and ties. Is it of a cooperative or competitive nature? Do Russia and China coordinate their approach vis-à-vis with the West Nordic region, or do they neglect each other’s involvement? Finally, does the Sino-Russian strategic partnership and mutual interest in Arctic development have any impact on their cooperation with the West Nordic states? In the presentation, we elucidate the scope of Russian and Chinese involvement in the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Iceland and share the results of a comparative analysis aimed to determine the place of these territories in modern Russia's and China's policies. Paper 10.3 abstract Sumarlidi IsleiFsson: Networks, the small state of Iceland and relations with the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China Formal relations between the Soviet Union and the Icelandic government were insignificant until after the Second World War. Concerning the People´s Republic of China the relations were minor until the last few decades but have grown rapidly since around the turn of the 2000´s. In addition to formal relations, a network was created between individuals, associations, and political parties, with institutions of both of these superpowers. The network with the Soviet Union was largely based on the co-operation of the Communist Party of Iceland (founded 1930) and later the Socialist Party (1938) with the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. In addition, there were friendship associations and Icelandic students went to Eastern Europe for studying and the East-bloc sent artists to Iceland. After the Second World War, the Icelandic trade union movement worked closely with the trade unions in Eastern Europe. Relations with the People's Republic of China were similarly structured. The Chinese Communist Party began cooperating with Marxist-Leninist parties throughout Western Europe, including Iceland in the 1960´s and the 1970´s. The ties were cultivated in a variety of ways, through invitations to embassies, visits to China, and the Friendship Association of Iceland and China was active. The cultural relations between Iceland and China were also significant. It is clear, that in both cases the Soviet government and the Chinese government emphasized to establish good relations with young people in Iceland. In the paper I will discuss the success of these two superpowers in their efforts to increase goodwill in Iceland and how it was done. Furthermore, I will discuss the impact on Icelandic political discourse and attitudes to these two superpowers. Paper 10.4 abstract Andrey Krivorotov: U.S. AND CHINA ENGAGEMENT IN GREENLAND – SEEN FROM RUSSIA Since 2019, the U.S. Administration has included the Arctic, in particular Iceland and Greenland, into its overall policy of confronting China and Russia. While Russia is almost entirely viewed as a re-emerging military power (which has revitalized NATO’s interest to the GIUK gap), China seems to be a broader concern. In Greenland, the United States makes a special focus on enhancing its military presence, preventing large Chinese investments, which would involve the island into the Polar Silk Road initiative, and a potential extraction of strategically important rare earth elements (REEs). To achieve this, Trump Administration prefers a direct outreach to Nuuk bypassing Copenhagen and creating a complicated set of quadripartite relations. We may foresee three medium-term scenarios, with Greenland remaining in a gradually looser union with Denmark, moving into the U.S. domain, or acquiring a full statehood with a subsequent competition of great powers. The next few years may be crucial. Russia does not have material economic interests in Greenland, and this may explain its rather limited media coverage of the island developments (except for Donald Trump’s offer to purchase it from Denmark). However, it is naturally affected as the biggest Arctic nation, which has among other submitted continental shelf claims overlapping with Greenland’s, and a potential REE exporter. Since 2019, Russia has been reshaping its Arctic policy with a stronger emphasis on national security, peaceful international cooperation, and enhancing the northern population’s life quality. It is not in the Russian interests to be involved in a U.S.-China rivalry in the Arctic, and charting a right course towards Greenland may represent a distinct foreign policy challenge for Moscow, as well. Paper 10.5 abstract Agne Cepinskyte & Michael Paul: Arctic Security Environment in Flux: From ‘Zone of Peace’ to Security Dilemma Over three decades ago, Mikhail Gorbachev launched a set of policies, commonly known as the Murmansk Initiative, aiming to transform the Arctic from a military theatre to an international ‘zone of peace’. The Murmansk Initiative marked a radical shift in Soviet Arctic policy and spurred eventual de-securitisation of interstate relations in the region. Up until recently, such a view had largely been shaping the Arctic policy of the circumpolar states. At present, however, Arctic exceptionalism – an approach to the region as immune to geopolitical tensions and confrontations – is being replaced by strategic competition between great powers. The increasingly easier access to the circumpolar North, caused by rapidly melting ice, has prompted not only the Arctic great power states, notably Russia and the US, but also new actors, such as China, to revise their Arctic policies. In its latest policy, China, positioning itself as a ‘near Arctic state’, has demonstrated a greater focus on building capacity to defend state interests in the Arctic through military means. Russia continues to advocate cooperation but has significantly expanded its military activities in the North.
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