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160118 Peel Hunt STV This report is prepared solely for the use of Alex DeGroote Buy STV Group# 18 January 2016 STVG Data Price 485p Plenty still to go for Target price 650p (was 530p) We increase our STV target price to 650p (from 530p) and we Market cap £192m retain our Buy stance. The share price has been very strong of EV £215m Net debt £23m late and the equity story is well underpinned. Core advertising Interest cover 16x and digital performance trends remain attractive into 2016, with Pension deficit £15m fresh catalysts in view (retransmission fees; M&A spec in TV Free float 100% assets; EPG shift/weaker BBC). The valuation is still also Index FTSE SmallCap Sector Media undemanding. STV trades on 12x PE, with an ordinary yield of Next news Feb - Prelims 2% and leverage at multi-year lows. UK sales 100% European sales 0% Profit forecasts trimmed: The recent FY2015 pre-close update was brief but North American sales 0% encouraging overall. Our headline forecasts are now trimmed, although we tweak Rest of World sales 0% the divisional inputs (Production down, Consumer up). We still factor in nothing for Description upside from (expected) regulatory change, yet a 10% CAGR in EPS out to FY2017 STV Group holds the UK channel 3 TV licence for looks plausible. Scotland. It also operates TV production businesses as well as local advertising websites. STV declining leverage, eyes on uses of cash: We forecast net debt/EBITDA of < 1x at FY period end, with the balance sheet in very good shape now. We forecast Performance annual free cash flow of £8m after pension. The dividend is very well covered, c4x. Source: Bloomberg 600 STV is a scarce and key strategic Media asset; relationship with ITV ailso much 500 improved: The recent £110m takeover of UTV’s TV assets by ITV now leaves STV 400 as the owner of the remaining C3 network licences. In the run-up to Christmas, ITV 300 Plc was also closely linked to Comcast. UK TV assets clearly have M&A potential. 200 This is not reflected in the current STV PE multiple of 12x PE, in our view. 100 Resilient in a fast-evolving TV landscape: STV’s reach is > 90% of Scotland, with 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan share of commercial viewing almost three times its nearest rival. Forecasts for the UK Price Relative advertising industry are encouraging, with TV retaining a > 40% share amidst seismic Analyst change in Media. STV is well placed in national airtime, its largest revenue line, with Alex DeGroote downside protection on the cost side under its NAA (Network Affiliate Agreement). +44 (0) 20 7418 8863 [email protected] Organic initiatives bearing fruit: Outwith linear TV, STV’s suite of emerging products (eg City TV, Digital and stv.tv) addresses new revenue streams. In the case of #Corporate client of Peel Hunt VOD (video on demand), this is high margin. STV is now also capturing more data on consumers, which will prove valuable in the future. Production should have more than just option value, with a lot of work being undertaken behind the scenes. Regulatory backdrop favourable: Retransmission fees would add material value to STV, in our view. Debate over the BBC Charter renewal will also feature heavily in Media 2016 and we see the risk on the upside for all commercial media, including STV. Stats Source: Company accounts, Peel Hunt estimates Y/E Dec Sales EBITDA Op Margin Adj PBT Adj EPS EPS growth PER DPS Div yield FCF yield EV/EBITDA (£m) (%) (£m) (p) (%) (x) (p) (%) (%) (x) 2014A 120.4 21.8 16.2 17.3 37.6 13.1 13.0 8.0 1.6 4.5 10.1 2015E 122.8 23.1 16.7 19.3 39.3 4.5 12.5 10.0 2.0 5.2 9.3 2016E 132.3 24.7 16.6 21.1 43.1 9.7 11.4 12.0 2.5 3.3 8.6 2017E 140.8 26.7 17.1 23.3 47.7 10.8 10.2 14.0 2.9 5.7 7.7 This document must be treated as a marketing communication for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC as it has not been prepared in Marketing Communication accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This report is prepared solely for the use of Alex DeGroote Peel Hunt STV Group# 18 January 2016 Report overview Increase target price to 650p STV was one of our key Media ‘top picks’ for 2015. In this report, we now reiterate our Buy stance on STV for 2016 with a revised target price of 650p. First, we put the current share price into some context then we address the following key STV investment themes: • outlook for STV forecasts, including the recent FY trading update, top-down prospects for advertising in 2016 and beyond, and performance in new initiatives; • our thoughts on the company’s valuation, and the rationale for our revised 650p target price; • cash generation and STV’s use of cash going forward, including dividend payout; • what the ITV Network consolidation means for STV, taking into account the recent UTV takeover; • the importance of TV itself in a fast-changing media and technology landscape; • retransmission fees, and the regulatory environment; and • progress on STV’s new business initiatives, together with an update on Production; 2016: Broadcast sector in focus At Peel Hunt, we believe 2016 will be the ‘high-tide’ mark for the UK broadcast sector. Hence, we also provide detailed analysis on the shifting sands for the sector at large. Share price in context and STV equity story overview 44% TSR, 2015 We selected STV as one of our top picks for the Media sector in 2015. Its share price performance in the year was impressive: +44% TSR. Over the longer term, in absolute terms, the STV share price has now quadrupled since 2011 (eg from 105p, to 485p today). In terms of valuation multiples (excluding pension), this can be expressed in terms of a PE re-rating from 3x prospective, to 12x. By way of contrast, ITV Plc trades on 17x PE. Chart 1: STV share price and EPS multiple expansion since 2011 Source: Peel Hunt estimates, PE and EPS on LH side 45.0 450 40.0 400 35.0 350 30.0 300 25.0 250 20.0 200 15.0 150 10.0 10.2 10.9 100 7.4 5.0 50 3.1 3 0.0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EPS P/E Share price (rhs) 2 This report is prepared solely for the use of Alex DeGroote Peel Hunt STV Group# 18 January 2016 Over the same period, STV’s EPS has increased from 32.7p to 39.3p (forecast). Likewise, ITV Plc has performed very well since 2011. Both of these Media names have shared the benefit of a powerful cyclical recovery in advertising. Chart 2: STV share price since 2011 Chart 3: ITV share price since 2011 Source: Bloomberg, LH axis share price Source: Bloomberg, LH axis share price 450 300 400 250 350 300 200 250 150 200 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 We identify the STV equity story in terms of ‘old’ and ‘new’ factors. Self-help is a recurring theme throughout, as is management’s track record. Commonly we have heard from various institutions that ‘they have done everything they said they would’. Table 1: STV: Equity story evolution Source: Peel Hunt Old equity story Comments New equity story Comments Solid organic Alongside PE multiple expansion, EPS has been in an Improving Ofcom licences renewed out 2024. The Scottish referendum has ‘come profit ‘up cycle’ since 2009. This is organic growth as STV regulatory and gone’, at least for now. Negotiations for BBC Charter renewal – performance has not undertaken any acquisitions (no forex either). backdrop effective 2017 – are underway. Finally, a new Digital Media Bill is due out this year, which may well qualify retransmission fees. Improved reach STV offers products in online, VOD and TV. Reach is Digital business STV has created a scale, highly-profitable VOD business (> 35% in Scotland growing significantly, with important business margins). The cost is largely sunk and consumer usage of on demand is advantages. growing rapidly. Resumption of STV resumed its dividend payout in 2013. A reliable Progressive The company has indicated 10p and 12p dividends for FY2015/16 dividend yield on STV enhances the story in terms of TSR. dividend/uses of respectively. The payout ratios could improve further. Likewise a special cash dividend is plausible. De-leveraging STV’s net debt has fallen from £52m in 2010 to Outlook for STV is focused on the ‘right’ parts of the advertising market, TV and digital c£23m in FY2015E. Excluding the IAS pension deficit, advertising (including video on demand). WARC/Group M forecast overall UK ad this equates to net debt:EBITDA of 1x. This is modest market growth rates of > 6% in 2016. leverage, and provides optionality. De-risked STV has renegotiated its operating relationship with Bid spec The recent £110m takeover of UTV Media’s Irish TV assets by ITV raises ITV, with less gearing now. An ETV exercise could also the ante for STV, the final piece of the jigsaw in terms of ITV’s partially de-risk the DB scheme.
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