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Understanding the Stagnation of Modern Economies

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Understanding the Stagnation of Modern Economies Department of Economics and Economica public lecture Understanding the Stagnation of Modern Economies Professor Robert Hall Robert and Carole McNeill Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Professor of Economics, Stanford University Professor Francesco Caselli Norman Sosnow Professor of Economics, LSE Chair, LSE Hashtag for Twitter users: #LSEPhillips Understanding the Stagnation of Modern Economies Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University The Phillips Lecture London School of Economics 28 April 2016 · 1 Allocation of 10.0 percentage points of shortfall in real GDP, 2010 4 Excess unemployment 3.3 Shrunken labor 3 1.3 force Shrunken labor force 2 Reduced productivity growth 3.1 1 Depleted capital stock 2.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2 Allocation of 15.4 percentage points of shortfall in real GDP, 2015 4 0.5 Excess unemployment Shrunken labor 3 3.3 force Shrunken labor force 2 Reduced productivity growth 6.6 1 Depleted capital stock 5.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 3 Topic 1: Output 21 20 19 Trillions of 2009 dollars 18 Detrended real GDP 17 16 15 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 4 Topic 2: Unemployment 12 10 8 6 Percent of labor force 4 2 0 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 5 Unemployment and productivity 12 1.1 Output per worker 10 (inverse, right scale) 1.0 8 1.0 6 0.9 4 0.9 Unemployment rate (left scale) 2 0.8 Reciptorcal of index of real output per worker Percent of population working or looking for work 0 0.8 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 6 Unemployment and the stock market 12 3.5 3.0 10 2.5 8 Unemployment rate (left scale) 2.0 6 1.5 market 4 1.0 Stock market (inverse, right 2 scale) 0.5 Reciptorcal of index of real value of the stock Percent of population working or looking for work 0 0.0 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 7 Direct Effect of Unemployment 21 20 19 18 17 16 Real GDP Adjusted for direct effect of unemployment Detrended Real GDP, trillions of 2009 dollars 15 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 8 Topic 3: Shrinkage of the labor force 90 Men 80 70 Percent of population working or looking for work 60 Percent 50 Women 40 30 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 9 Role of family income from Hall and Petrosky-Nadeau (2016) 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total 1.5% 1st (poorest) 0.5% 0.7 2nd 0.3 -0.5% 3rd -1.5% -1.5 -2.0 4th (richest) -2.5% Total -2.6 10 -3.5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Changes in weekly hours of time use, 2003 to 2013, people 15 and older Personal Household Market Education Leisure Other care work work Men 1.3 0.1 -2.5 0.2 1.3 -0.4 Women 1.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.1 0.8 -0.8 11 Topic 4: Total Factor Productivity 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 Index 1.00 Detrended index of output per unit of Input 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 12 Declining IP investment 3.1 2.6 2.1 Index 1.6 Detrended Index of investment in intellectual property including R&D 1.1 0.6 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 13 Technology diffusion is sensitive to Figure 4: Diffusionmacro Speed for 3 Internet conditions Technologies in the UK, 2004-2013 from Anzoategui et al. 1 Diffusion Speed for 3 Internet Technologies in UK 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 14 Source: Eurostat; see footnote6 for details of calculations. Shaded areas are UK recession dates as dated by UK ONS. 10 Topic 5: Capital Depletion 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 Index 1.00 0.95 Detrended index of busines capital 0.90 0.85 0.80 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 15 Business Earnings as a Ratio to the Value of Capital 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 Ratio of capital earnings to value of capital 0.05 0.00 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 16 Allocation of 15.4 percentage points of shortfall in real GDP, 2015 4 0.5 Excess unemployment Shrunken labor 3 3.3 force Shrunken labor force 2 Reduced productivity growth 6.6 1 Depleted capital stock 5.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 17 Topic 6: The Lower Bound on the Nominal Interest Rate 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Percent per year Short‐term future interest rate 1.5 implied by yields on longer‐term 1.0 treasury bonds 0.5 0.0 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 18 Monetary policy has much less scope for stimulus 18 16 Federal Reserve Policy 14 Interest Rate 12 10 8 Percent per year 6 4 2 0 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 19 Sources I Diego Anzoategui, Diego Comin, Mark Gertler, and Joseba Martinez, \Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence", February 2016 I Robert Hall, \High Discounts and High Unemployment", \Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate", \Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps" (chapter for new Handbook of Macroeconomics) I Robert Hall and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, \Changes in Labor Participation and Household Income", FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-02, February 2016 · 20 Department of Economics and Economica public lecture Understanding the Stagnation of Modern Economies Professor Robert Hall Robert and Carole McNeill Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Professor of Economics, Stanford University Professor Francesco Caselli Norman Sosnow Professor of Economics, LSE Chair, LSE Hashtag for Twitter users: #LSEPhillips .
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