Adaptation of Macro Theory to Rational Expectations
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Walter Heller Oral History Interview II, 12/21/71, by David G
LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON LIBRARY ORAL HISTORY COLLECTION LBJ Library 2313 Red River Street Austin, Texas 78705 http://www.lbjlib.utexas.edu/johnson/archives.hom/biopage.asp WALTER HELLER ORAL HISTORY, INTERVIEW II PREFERRED CITATION For Internet Copy: Transcript, Walter Heller Oral History Interview II, 12/21/71, by David G. McComb, Internet Copy, LBJ Library. For Electronic Copy on Compact Disc from the LBJ Library: Transcript, Walter Heller Oral History Interview II, 12/21/71, by David G. McComb, Electronic Copy, LBJ Library. GENERAL SERVICES ADNINISTRATION NATIONAL ARCHIVES AND RECORDS SERVICE LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON LIBRARY Legal Agreement Pertaining to the Oral History Interviews of Walter W. Heller In accordance with the provisions of Chapter 21 of Title 44, United States Code and subject to the terms and conditions hereinafter· set forth, I, Walter W. Heller of Minneapolis, Minnesota do hereby give, donate and convey to the United States of America all my rights, title and interest in the tape record- ings and transcripts of the personal interviews conducted on February 20, 1970 and December 21,1971 in Minneapolis, Minnesota and prepared for deposit in the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library. This assignment is subject to the following terms and conditions: (1) The edited transcripts shall be available for use by researchers as soon as they have been deposited in the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library. (2) The tape recordings shall not be available to researchers. (3) During my lifetime I retain all copyright in the material given to the United States by the terms of this instrument. Thereafter the copyright in the edited transcripts shall pass to the United States Government. -
Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher
THE DEBT-DEFLATION THEORY OF GREAT DEPRESSIONS BY IRVING FISHER INTRODUCTORY IN Booms and Depressions, I have developed, theoretically and sta- tistically, what may be called a debt-deflation theory of great depres- sions. In the preface, I stated that the results "seem largely new," I spoke thus cautiously because of my unfamiliarity with the vast literature on the subject. Since the book was published its special con- clusions have been widely accepted and, so far as I know, no one has yet found them anticipated by previous writers, though several, in- cluding myself, have zealously sought to find such anticipations. Two of the best-read authorities in this field assure me that those conclu- sions are, in the words of one of them, "both new and important." Partly to specify what some of these special conclusions are which are believed to be new and partly to fit them into the conclusions of other students in this field, I am offering this paper as embodying, in brief, my present "creed" on the whole subject of so-called "cycle theory." My "creed" consists of 49 "articles" some of which are old and some new. I say "creed" because, for brevity, it is purposely ex- pressed dogmatically and without proof. But it is not a creed in the sense that my faith in it does not rest on evidence and that I am not ready to modify it on presentation of new evidence. On the contrary, it is quite tentative. It may serve as a challenge to others and as raw material to help them work out a better product. -
Chretien Consensus
End of the CHRÉTIEN CONSENSUS? Jason Clemens Milagros Palacios Matthew Lau Niels Veldhuis Copyright ©2017 by the Fraser Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. The authors of this publication have worked independently and opinions expressed by them are, therefore, their own, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Fraser Institute or its supporters, Directors, or staff. This publication in no way implies that the Fraser Institute, its Directors, or staff are in favour of, or oppose the passage of, any bill; or that they support or oppose any particular political party or candidate. Date of issue: March 2017 Printed and bound in Canada Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication Data End of the Chrétien Consensus? / Jason Clemens, Matthew Lau, Milagros Palacios, and Niels Veldhuis Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-88975-437-9 Contents Introduction 1 Saskatchewan’s ‘Socialist’ NDP Begins the Journey to the Chrétien Consensus 3 Alberta Extends and Deepens the Chrétien Consensus 21 Prime Minister Chrétien Introduces the Chrétien Consensus to Ottawa 32 Myths of the Chrétien Consensus 45 Ontario and Alberta Move Away from the Chrétien Consensus 54 A New Liberal Government in Ottawa Rejects the Chrétien Consensus 66 Conclusions and Recommendations 77 Endnotes 79 www.fraserinstitute.org d Fraser Institute d i ii d Fraser Institute d www.fraserinstitute.org Executive Summary TheChrétien Consensus was an implicit agreement that transcended political party and geography regarding the soundness of balanced budgets, declining government debt, smaller and smarter government spending, and competi- tive taxes that emerged in the early 1990s and lasted through to roughly the mid-2000s. -
The Econometric Society European Region Aide Mémoire
The Econometric Society European Region Aide M´emoire March 22, 2021 1 European Standing Committee 2 1.1 Responsibilities . .2 1.2 Membership . .2 1.3 Procedures . .4 2 Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM) 5 2.1 Timing and Format . .5 2.2 Invited Sessions . .6 2.3 Contributed Sessions . .7 2.4 Other Events . .8 3 European Winter Meeting (EWMES) 9 3.1 Scope of the Meeting . .9 3.2 Timing and Format . 10 3.3 Selection Process . 10 4 Appendices 11 4.1 Appendix A: Members of the Standing Committee . 11 4.2 Appendix B: Winter Meetings (since 2014) and Regional Consultants (2009-2013) . 27 4.3 Appendix C: ESEM Locations . 37 4.4 Appendix D: Programme Chairs ESEM & EEA . 38 4.5 Appendix E: Invited Speakers ESEM . 39 4.6 Appendix F: Winners of the ESEM Awards . 43 4.7 Appendix G: Countries in the Region Europe and Other Areas ........... 44 This Aide M´emoire contains a detailed description of the organisation and procedures of the Econometric Society within the European Region. It complements the Rules and Procedures of the Econometric Society. It is maintained and regularly updated by the Secretary of the European Standing Committee in accordance with the policies and decisions of the Committee. The Econometric Society { European Region { Aide Memoire´ 1 European Standing Committee 1.1 Responsibilities 1. The European Standing Committee is responsible for the organisation of the activities of the Econometric Society within the Region Europe and Other Areas.1 It should undertake the consideration of any activities in the Region that promote interaction among those interested in the objectives of the Society, as they are stated in its Constitution. -
Kermit Gordon and Walter W
Kermit Gordon and Walter W. Heller Oral History Interview –JFK #2, 9/14/1972 Administrative Information Creator: Kermit Gordon and Walter W. Heller Interviewer: Larry J. Hackman and Joseph A. Pechman Date of Interview: September 14, 1972 Place of Interview: Washington, D.C. Length: 50 pp. Biographical Note Gordon, Kermit; Economist, Member, Council of Economic Advisers (1961-1962). Heller, Walter W.; Economist, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (1961-1964). Gordon and Heller discuss wage-price guideposts, the steel crises in 1962 and 1963, John F. Kennedy’s [JFK] relationship with the business community, and their efforts regarding tax reform and a tax cut bill, among other issues. Access Restrictions No restrictions. Usage Restrictions Copyright of these materials have passed to the United States Government upon the death of the interviewees. Users of these materials are advised to determine the copyright status of any document from which they wish to publish. Copyright The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Under certain conditions specified in the law, libraries and archives are authorized to furnish a photocopy or other reproduction. One of these specified conditions is that the photocopy or reproduction is not to be “used for any purpose other than private study, scholarship, or research.” If a user makes a request for, or later uses, a photocopy or reproduction for purposes in excesses of “fair use,” that user may be liable for copyright infringement. This institution reserves the right to refuse to accept a copying order if, in its judgment, fulfillment of the order would involve violation of copyright law. -
Prof Robert Barro
Guest Lecturer Robert Barro MiEMacroeconomic EfffftfGtects from Government Purchases and Taxes Robert J. Barro is Paul M. Warburg Professor of Economics at Harvard University, a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution of Stanford University , and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and a B.S. in physics from Caltech. Barro is co-editor of Harvard’s Quarterly Journal of Economics and was recently President of the Western Economic Association and Vice President of the American Economic Association. He is honorary dean of the China Economics & Management Academy, Central University of Beijing. He was a viewpoint columnist for Business Week from 1998 to 2006 and a contributing editor of The Wall Street Journal from 1991 to 1998. He has written extensively on macroeconomics and economic growth. Noteworthy research includes empirical determinants of economic growth , economic effects of public debt and budget deficits, and the formation of monetary policy. Recent books include Macroeconomics: A Modern Approach from Thompson/Southwestern, Economic Growth (2nd edition, written with Xavier Sala-i-Martin), Nothing Is Sacred: Economic Ideas for the New Millennium, Determinants of Economic Growth, and Getting It Right: Markets and Choices in a Free Society, all from MIT Press. Current research focuses on two very different topics: the interplay between religion and political economy and the impact of rare disasters on asset markets Where: Level 5, The Treasury, 1 The Terrace When: 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm Thursday 17 March 2011 RSVP: Ellen Shields by Friday 4 March 2011 To confirm your attendance, contact: For more information, contact: Ellen Shields Grant Scobie Program Administrator Convenor Academic Linkages Programme [email protected] [email protected] Ph: 04 890 7202 Ph: 04 917 6005. -
The Principles of Economics Textbook
The Principles of Economics Textbook: An Analysis of Its Past, Present & Future by Vitali Bourchtein An honors thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science Undergraduate College Leonard N. Stern School of Business New York University May 2011 Professor Marti G. Subrahmanyam Professor Simon Bowmaker Faculty Advisor Thesis Advisor Bourchtein 1 Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................4 Thank You .......................................................................................................................................4 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................5 Summary ..........................................................................................................................................5 Part I: Literature Review ..................................................................................................................6 David Colander – What Economists Do and What Economists Teach .......................................6 David Colander – The Art of Teaching Economics .....................................................................8 David Colander – What We Taught and What We Did: The Evolution of US Economic Textbooks (1830-1930) ..............................................................................................................10 -
The Lucas Critique – Is It Really Relevant?
Working Paper Series Department of Business & Management Macroeconomic Methodology, Theory and Economic Policy (MaMTEP) No. 7, 2016 The Lucas Critique – is it really relevant? By Finn Olesen 1 Abstract: As one of the founding fathers of what became the modern macroeconomic mainstream, Robert E. Lucas has made several important contributions. In the present paper, the focus is especially on his famous ‘Lucas critique’, which had tremendous influence on how to build macroeconomic models and how to evaluate economic policies within the modern macroeconomic mainstream tradition. However, much of this critique should not come as a total surprise to Post Keynesians as Keynes himself actually discussed many of the elements present in Lucas’s 1976 article. JEL classification: B22, B31 & E20 Key words: Lucas, microfoundations for macroeconomics, realism & Post Keynesianism I have benefitted from useful comments from Robert Ayreton Bailey Smith and Peter Skott. 2 Introduction In 1976, Robert Lucas published a contribution that since has had an enormous impact on modern macroeconomics. Based on the Lucas critique, the search for an explicit microfoundation for macroeconomic theory began in earnest. Later on, consensus regarding methodological matters between the New Classical and the New Keynesian macroeconomists emerged. That is, it was accepted that macroeconomics could only be done within an equilibrium framework with intertemporal optimising households and firms using rational expectations. As such, the representative agent was born. Accepting such a framework has of course not only theoretical consequences but also methodological ones as for instance pointed out by McCombie & Pike (2013). Not only should macroeconomics rest upon explicit and antiquated, although accepted, microeconomic axioms; macroeconomic theory also had to be formulated exclusively by use of mathematical modelling1. -
Read the Full PDF
Job Name:2178263 Date:15-03-05 PDF Page:2178263pbc.p1.pdf Color: Cyan Magenta Yellow Black Thelmpaet 01 SoelalSeeurlty on PrivateSaving TheImpact 01 SocialSecurity on Private Saving Evidenee from theU.S.Time Series RobertJ. Barro Withareplyby Martin reldstela American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington, D.C. Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Robert J. Barro is professor of economics at the University of Rochester. Martin Feldstein is professor of economics at Harvard Uni versity and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Barro, Robert J The impact of social security on private saving. (AEI studies; 199) 1. Social security-United States. 2. Saving and investment-United States. I. Feldstein, Martin 5., joint author. II. Title. III. Series: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. HD7125.B33 332'.0415'0973 78-16945 ISBN 0-8447-3301-6 AEI studies 199 ©1978 by American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. Permission to quote from or to reproduce materials in this publication is granted when due acknowledgment is made. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. -
Ten Nobel Laureates Say the Bush
Hundreds of economists across the nation agree. Henry Aaron, The Brookings Institution; Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Frank Ackerman, Global Development and Environment Institute; William James Adams, University of Michigan; Earl W. Adams, Allegheny College; Irma Adelman, University of California – Berkeley; Moshe Adler, Fiscal Policy Institute; Behrooz Afraslabi, Allegheny College; Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts – Boston; Polly R. Allen, University of Connecticut; Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland; Alice H. Amsden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Robert M. Anderson, University of California; Ralph Andreano, University of Wisconsin; Laura M. Argys, University of Colorado – Denver; Robert K. Arnold, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; David Arsen, Michigan State University; Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Alice Audie-Figueroa, International Union, UAW; Robert L. Axtell, The Brookings Institution; M.V. Lee Badgett, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Ron Baiman, University of Illinois – Chicago; Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research; Drucilla K. Barker, Hollins University; David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana – Unidad Xochimilco; William A. Barnett, University of Kansas and Washington University; Timothy J. Bartik, Upjohn Institute; Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College; Francis M. Bator, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Sandy Baum, Skidmore College; William J. Baumol, New York University; Randolph T. Beard, Auburn University; Michael Behr; Michael H. Belzer, Wayne State University; Arthur Benavie, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill; Peter Berg, Michigan State University; Alexandra Bernasek, Colorado State University; Michael A. Bernstein, University of California – San Diego; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute; Rari Bhandari, University of California – Berkeley; Melissa Binder, University of New Mexico; Peter Birckmayer, SUNY – Empire State College; L. -
Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: a Selective Summary of Recent Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sarg76-1 Publication Date: 1976 Chapter Title: Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9082 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 23) 1 THOMAS J. SARGENT University of Minnesota Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes the macroeconomics underlying Irving Fisher's theory about tile impact of expected inflation on nomi nal interest rates. Two sets of restrictions on a standard macroeconomic model are considered, each of which is sufficient to iniplv Fisher's theory. The first is a set of restrictions on the slopes of the IS and LM curves, while the second is a restriction on the way expectations are formed. Selected recent empirical work is also reviewed, and its implications for the effect of inflation on interest rates and other macroeconomic issues are discussed. INTRODUCTION This article is designed to pull together and summarize recent work by a few others and myself on the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.' The topic has received much attention in recent years, no doubt as a consequence of the high inflation rates and high interest rates experienced by Western economies since the mid-1960s. NOTE: In this paper I Summarize the results of research 1 conducted as part of the National Bureaus study of the effects of inflation, for which financing has been provided by a grait from the American life Insurance Association Heiptul coinrnents on earlier eriiins of 'his p,irx'r serv marIe ti PhillipCagan arid l)y the mnibrirs Ut the stall reading Committee: Michael R. -
American Economic Association
American Economic Association /LIH&\FOH,QGLYLGXDO7KULIWDQGWKH:HDOWKRI1DWLRQV $XWKRU V )UDQFR0RGLJOLDQL 6RXUFH7KH$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ9RO1R -XQ SS 3XEOLVKHGE\$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF$VVRFLDWLRQ 6WDEOH85/http://www.jstor.org/stable/1813352 $FFHVVHG Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=aea. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. American Economic Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Economic Review. http://www.jstor.org Life Cycle, IndividualThrift, and the Wealth of Nations By FRANCO MODIGLIANI* This paper provides a review of the theory Yet, there was a brief but influential inter- of the determinants of individual and na- val in the course of which, under the impact tional thrift that has come to be known as of the Great Depression, and of the interpre- the Life Cycle Hypothesis (LCH) of saving.