THE PRE-DEPRESSION INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD-SYSTEMS IN THE TROPICS (PREDICT) FIELD CAMPAIGN Perspectives of Early Career Scientists BY CLARK EVANS , HE AT he R M. AR ch A M BAULT , JASON M. CORD E IRA , CODY FRITZ , TH O M AS J. GALARN E AU JR., SASKA GJORgjIEVSKA, KYL E S. GRI ff IN , AL E XANDRIA JO H NSON , WILLIA M A. KO M ARO M I , SARA H MON E TT E , PAYTSAR MURADYAN , BRIAN MUR ph Y , MI ch A E L RI eme R , JO H N SE ARS , DANI E L ST E RN , BRIAN TAN G , AND Seg AYL E TH O mp SON Early career scientists played crucial roles in the success of the PREDICT field campaign and, in turn, experienced unique career-development opportunities that will shape their research for years to come. he marsupial paradigm tested by the Pre- (2009) hypothesized that the pouch is a very favor- Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in able area for tropical cyclogenesis because it promotes T the Tropics (PREDICT; Montgomery et al. 2012) the accumulation of moisture and cyclonic relative builds on the notion that a recirculation area may vorticity. As part of its mission to study the struc- occur in conjunction with tropical disturbances. ture and environmental conditions associated with This recirculation area, or “pouch,” is protected from tropical disturbances and their pouches, PREDICT a potentially hostile environment. Dunkerton et al. involved 26 flight missions into four developing AFFILIATIONS: EVANS + AND TAN G —National Center for Atmospheric CURREnt affiliations: +Department of Mathematical Research,* Boulder, Colorado; AR ch A M BAULT ,# CORD E IRA ,@ AND Sciences, University of Wisconsin—Milwaukee, Milwaukee, GRI ff IN —University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, Wisconsin; #Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California; New York; FRITZ —University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, @NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado; Urbana, Illinois; GALARN E AU &—CIRES, University of Colorado, &National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Boulder, Colorado; GJ OR gj I E VSKA —New Mexico Institute of Mining CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Clark Evans, Dept. of and Technology, Socorro, New Mexico; JO H NSON , MURADYAN , Mathematical Sciences, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P.O. Box AND MUR ph Y —Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana; 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201-0413 KO M ARO M I —University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida; MON E TT E AND E-mail: [email protected] SE ARS —University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin; The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table RI eme R —Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; of contents. ST E RN —The Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania; DOI:10.1175 / BAMS - D -11- 0 0 024.1 TH O mp SON —NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland *The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by In final form 22 July 2011 the National Science Foundation ©2012 American Meteorological Society AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2012 | 173 and four nondeveloping tropical disturbances in Both the literature and authors’ experiences indicate the tropical North Atlantic basin from the island that ECSs have played important roles in numer- of St. Croix during August and September 2010. ous previous field campaigns such as the Severe PREDICT involved 12 principal investigators (PIs), Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation who represented nine institutions, and more than 70 Study (STEPS; Lang et al. 2004), the Bow Echo and scientists and support staff. Among the scientific and Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Experiment support staff contributors to PREDICT, no less than (BAMEX; Davis et al. 2004), the Rain in Cumulus 17 were early career scientists (ECSs), defined here over the Oceans (RICO) experiment (Rauber et al. as graduate students and postdoctoral researchers. 2007), the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes These ECSs represent 11 institutions and come from (TCSP) experiment (Halverson et al. 2007), and the diverse backgrounds across meteorology and related Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) experi- fields. ment (Elsberry and Harr 2008). Before discussing the roles played by ECSs in Two more striking examples of ECS involvement in PREDICT, it is useful to provide an overview of the field campaigns within the fields surveyed, however, roles played by ECSs in previous field campaigns. For are given by the Global Atmospheric Research brevity, we focus upon field campaigns tangentially Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment related to PREDICT or those studying aspects of (GATE; International and Scientific Management tropical meteorology or severe convective storms. Group for GATE 1974) and the National Aeronautics A PI’S PERSPECTIVE ON ECS INVOLVEMENT IN PREDICT Contribution by Christopher A. Davis, National Center for Atmospheric Research s in many field projects, students pouch products to tailored displays early career scientists was uniformly A(and, more generally, early career of operational model guidance. The high. Furthermore, the responsive- scientists) play a critical part in the prediction of incipient tropical distur- ness of forecasts and nowcasters to PI planning of missions, the execution bances was not something with which inquiries, either in planning or during of those missions, and the analysis most students were familiar initially. operations, contributed greatly to the of data (e.g., Rauber et al. 2007). Far greater emphasis is usually placed success of the project. PREDICT was no exception in that on the prediction of more mature Equally important to weather brief- regard. Being a project of modest tropical cyclones, both in the National ings and nowcasting in support of the size overall, the involvement of 17 Hurricane Center and at universities. aircraft missions was monitoring the graduate students and postdocs repre- Thus, students had to rapidly come data collected by the G-V, both on sented a significant fraction of the sci- up to speed on this topic, as well as board and in the operations center. entific staff. In many ways, the success how to interpret the new forecast A singular point of responsibility lay of the field phase of PREDICT can be tools available. This included tools with the initial quality control of the attributed to the efforts of these early for interpreting satellite information dropsonde data prior to their dis- career scientists. for nowcasting the location of intense semination to operational weather What made the involvement of convection during G-V missions. prediction centers through the Global early career scientists in PREDICT The expanse of the PREDICT Telecommunications System (GTS). distinct were the leadership roles that domain of interest, essentially the These data were assimilated into the they assumed in the particularly com- entire tropical and subtropical Atlantic ECMWF model (among others) and plex planning and execution of research as well as the Caribbean Sea, meant were seen to have a significant influ- missions with the G-V aircraft. The that there were often multiple distur- ence on subsequent forecasts (which, needs for PREDICT planning were bances to consider. Weather briefings in turn, benefited our mission planning extensive because of the difficulty in had to be inclusive but still delivered activities). forecasting whether “viable” tropi- within 30 min. Furthermore, the Finally, and perhaps most impor- cal disturbances would evolve, the variety of objectives of NOAA, NASA, tantly, students were fully engaged expanse of our area of interest, and and NSF participants meant that not in science discussions (and debates) the multifaceted objectives of the just nascent tropical disturbances but about interpretations of what the triagency group in the field [National also tropical cyclones in all stages of atmosphere was doing and why. These Science Foundation (NSF), NOAA, and evolution had to be scrutinized. This discussions may prove to be the most NASA]. proved particularly challenging in 2010 influential aspects of the involvement Most of the forecast products when there were 11 named storms of early career scientists from the used in the forecasting process for during the 46 days of PREDICT. The standpoint of their future research PREDICT were developed by early clarity and information content of directions and the subsequent career scientists, from the marsupial the briefings offered by the PREDICT research of the PIs as well. 174 | FEBRUARY 2012 and Space Administration (NASA) African Monsoon literature documenting these roles and the benefits Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA; Zipser et al. gained from such involvement to both the ECSs 2009) program. During GATE in 1974, approximately involved and the field program itself. Therefore, the 50 ECSs from multiple institutions played vital roles important contributions of ECSs to PREDICT and on board both ships and aircraft (E. Zipser 2011, the career-development experiences obtained therein personal communication) that enabled the mission are detailed within this manuscript. We start with the to successfully collect data that has significantly contributions and experiences of the forecast team. advanced our collective understanding of tropical meteorology. Many of the ECSs involved in GATE are Forecasting operations. ECSs made essential contribu- now leaders of the field at academic institutions, oper- tions to PREDICT field campaign as forecasters. Of ational forecast centers, and national research centers. the 10 scientists serving