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Presentación De Powerpoint Financial Services Sector Report May 2018 Activity of Credit Establishments Shows Mixed Signals According to the most recent figures published by the Financial Superintendence of Colombia, in February the activity of credit institutions maintained a stable dynamic. On the one hand, the loan portfolio expanded at a rate similar to that observed in January, while profitability indicators improved. However, the behavior of past due loans resulted in a deterioration in the quality of the loans. In our opinion, this is one of the main challenges the financial system faces in the current situation. Evolution of the Loan Portfolio In February, the balance of the gross loan portfolio was close to COP433bn, increasing by about COP3bn compared to January. This implies that the annual Figure 1 – Loan portfolio quality index (% of nominal growth stood at 5.9%, down 30bps against January. However, in real terms, past-due loans over total gross loans by segment the annual variation went from 2.4% in January to 2.5%, mainly explained by the – includes leasing) decreases in inflation. As happened in recent months, the expansion of the loan portfolio was explained by consumption and mortgages, with readings of 9.2% and 10.3% nominal annual, respectively. Meanwhile, business credit still shows no sign Feb-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 of reactivation and maintains an incipient expansion rate of 3.3%. 3.80% Total Portfolio 4.59% On the other hand, the balance of the overdue loan portfolio was close to 4.83% COP21bn. Thus, in absolute terms, delinquent loans increased COP1bn compared to 3.13% January, mainly explained by an increase of COP962,000mn in the overdue business Commercial 4.04% loan portfolio. In this way, the annual variation was 34.7%, up about 5pps vs. 4.39% January. Again, this dynamic was explained by an acceleration in the business 5.40% segment, which reached an annual expansion of 45%. On the other hand, the past Consumer 5.98% due loan portfolio for consumption credit slowed down (23.8%), while for 6.12% mortgages remained stable (44.3%). 2.38% Household 3.22% Quality and Coverage 3.11% 7.62% The balance of the gross and past due loan portfolio in February resulted in a Microcredit 7.99% deterioration in the quality of loans. Specifically, the traditional quality indicator 8.02% (overdue loan portfolio and leasing/gross loan portfolio and leasing) increased from 4.59% in January to 4.83% in February, a level not seen since the most recent Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia financial crisis, when the deterioration of loans reached 4.85%. In particular, the business and consumer loan portfolio showed the greatest deterioration. In fact, the quality indicator of the business loan portfolio reached a reading not seen since 2002. On the contrary, the indicator of mortgages decreased by 11bps, and remains as the segment with the best quality. However, the level of provisions of credit establishments shows that these maintain adequate coverage to face the risks of financial intermediation. In fact, in February, the coverage indicator (provisions/past due loans) was 124%. Analysts Profitability Name: Andrea Patricia Atuesta Meza Phone: (571) 7464329 Regarding the profitability of credit institutions, in February there was a significant E-mail: [email protected] increase. In particular, the ROE stood at 9.32%, up almost 1pps compared to Name: Juan Camilo Meneses Cortés January. However, it's worth noting that this level is lower than that observed a Phone: (571) 7463994 year ago, when the reading was 10.6%. E-mail: [email protected] Name: Juliana Aguilar Vargas Phone: (574) 6047045 E-mail: [email protected] Bank’s Credit Portfolio Maintained a Moderate Dynamic Profitability Affected by Increase in Provisions Figure 2 – Banks vs Colcap (Base 100) The net income of the banking industry was COP613,191mn during February, down PF Bancolombia PF Davivienda PF Aval Bogota Colcap 3.6% YoY, while the provision expense increased 27.1% YoY. This performance 130 made the ROE, which stood at 9.25%, decrease 2.24pps YoY. On the other hand, the average NIM (12 months) of the banks was at 6.12%, up 20.7bps. On the upper side 120 were Banco de Occidente (6.28%), followed by Davivienda (6.16%), while Bancolombia was on the lower side (5.73%), followed by Banco de Bogota (4.26%). 110 Performance of the Loan Portfolio – Moderate Growth Showing Less Deterioration Compared to 2017 100 The growth of the bank's loan portfolio maintained a moderate dynamic, up 5.86% 90 YoY (+0.7% MoM). On the other hand, past due loans showed a growth of 36.1% Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 YoY and an increase of 5.86% MoM, with the business loan portfolio and mortgages Source: Bloomberg. presenting the greatest deteriorations during this month. However, if we compare with FY2017, past due loans showed a higher average growth of about 43% this year, so the results to February reflect a slight recovery in this area. Table 1 – Multiples This supports the fact that the loan portfolio quality indicator has increased COMPANY P/E P/BV YIELD ROA ROE Total Assets substantially, going from 3.70% in January 2017 to 4.76% in February 2018, where BANCO DAVIVIENDA 12.0x 1.4x 2.6% 1.3% 12.3% $ 100,771,288 Bancolombia stands at 5.13%, followed by Banco de Occidente (4.62%), Davivienda BANCO BOGOTÁ 11.2x 1.3x 4.5% 1.4% 12.2% $ 149,405,125 (4.72%), and Banco de Bogota (3.88%). BANCOLOMBIA SA 12.3x 1.4x 2.9% 1.3% 11.8% $ 203,908,211 Coverage – In February Banks Maintained Adequate Coverage Source: Bloomberg. Banks maintain an adequate coverage that in February stood at 123.9%, with a negative variation of 5.5pps MoM. Bancolombia stands out with the highest level (137.9%), followed by Davivienda (106.1%), Banco de Bogota (122.6%), and Banco Table 2 – Market Share de Occidente (108.4%). Solvency Level – Healthy The level of solvency of banks has remained relatively stable since 2016, standing at 25,9% 14,7% 15.40% in February. Banco de Bogota stands out with the highest level (20%) and Banco de Occidente with the lowest (13.7%), both above the 9% regulatory. The foregoing indicates that banks in Colombia maintain adequate capital support. Outlook 12,8% 6,2% We reaffirm our expectation of more favorable credit dynamics, particularly in the second half of the year. In particular, we believe that once the electoral uncertainty Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. dissipates and the rebound in business and household confidence consolidates, investment decisions that during these months may have been postponed will be reactivated in greater magnitude. In addition, the outlook in terms of purchasing power and an environment of low and stable interest rates would set the right conditions for this to happen. In addition there's a better outlook regarding the quality of credit. In particular, we believe that the deterioration seen in recent months would have peaked in March, from where we anticipate that the greater expansion of income will allow businesses and households to more easily comply with financial obligations. Figure 3 – Loan Quality Figure 4 – Loan Coverage Banks Bancolombia Davivienda Banco de Bogotá Banco de Occidente Banks Bancolombia Davivienda Banco de Bogotá Banco de Occidente 4.6% 190% 4.1% 171% 3.7% 152% 3.3% 133% 2.9% 114% 2.5% Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 95% Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. Figure 5 – Provisions Expenses Figure 6 - Variation Gross loans Y/Y Bancolombia Davivienda Banco de Bogotá Banco de Occidente 10% 120% 9% 8.38% 8% 7.05% 100% 7% 5.9% 6% 80% 5% 3.7% 60% 4% 3% 40% 2% 1% 20% -0.89% 0% 0% -1% Jun-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Total Banks Bancolombia Davivienda Banco de Banco de -20% Bogotá Occidente Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. Source Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. Table 3 – Variation by Credit Segments Figure 7 –Annual variation Net Income Y/Y M/M Commercial 3.5% 0.9% Series1 Bancolombia Davivienda Consumption 8.6% 0.4% Banco de Bogotá Banco de Occidente Total Banks Mortgages 10.1% 0.5% 150% Microcredits 7.4% 0.6% Commercial 5.9% 1.5% 100% Consumption 20.1% 0.9% Bancolombia Mortgages 8.7% 0.2% 50% Microcredits -2.7% -1.0% Commercial 3.9% 0.2% 0% Consumption 7.8% -0.1% Davivienda Mortgages 13.5% 0.9% -50% Microcredits -23.1% -3.7% Commercial 1.9% 1.6% -100% Consumption 6.7% 0.0% Banco de Bogotá Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Mortgages 20.2% 1.5% Microcredits 2.9% 0.6% Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. Commercial -1.4% 0.9% Consumption -1.9% -0.7% Banco de Occidente Mortgages 15.2% 1.2% Microcredits - - Fuente: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia. Figure 8 – NIM 12 months Figure 9 - Solvency Total Banks Bancolombia Davivienda Total Banks Bancolombia Davivienda Banco de Bogotá Banco de Occidente Banco de Bogotá Banco de Occidente Minimo 6.6% 22 6.2% 20 5.8% 18 5.4% 16 5.0% 14 4.6% 12 4.2% 10 3.8% 8 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Source: Financial Superintendence of Colombia, Bancolombia.
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