Ft'l E Copreport No. P-9 Public Disclosure Authorized This Report Is for Official Use Only by the Bank Group and Specifically Authorized Organizations Or Persons

RESTRICTED

Ft'L E COPReport No. P-9 Public Disclosure Authorized This report is for official use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized organizations or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized

REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION

OF THE

PRESIDENT

TO THE

EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

Public Disclosure Authorized ON A

PROPOSED CREDIT

THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

FOR A

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized

June 7, 1971 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

US$1.00 = Rp 378 1 rupiah US$0.003

1 million rupiah-US$2, 6 46 INTER11'ATIONAL DEVELOPI4ET ASSOCIATION

REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EDXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA FOR A SECOND HIGHW4AY PROJECT

1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the Republic of Indonesia in an amount in various currencies equivalent to US$34 million on standard IDA terms for a second highway project.

PART I - HISTORICAL

2. Indonesia has received fourteen IDA credits for a total amount of US$178.4 million. The IDA program for Indonesia reflects the priorities for rehabilitation and development established by the Government and fully supported by the Bank Group. To support the Government's program for increasing food production the Association has made several credits for agriculture, mainly for the rehabilitation of irrigation systems and of rubber and palm oil estates. These account for nearly half of IDA lending for Indonesia, and for close to two-thirds if the Association's share in the PUSRI fertilizer project is included. In addition, to facilitate rapid rehabilitation in these sectors credits for highways, power, telecommunications and education have been made. In recognition of the urgent need for institutional reforms, a number of IDA projects have included major steps to reorganize existing institutions or establish new ones. At the same time, to supplement the Government's efforts in improving admini- stration and management each credit has included provision for consultant services and technical assistance. A summary statement of IDA credits and IFC investments is at Annex I.

3. In addition, two technical assistance credits have been made to finance part of the cost of pre-investment studies undertaken by the Government during the last two years. These studies are now helping to establish investment priorities over a wide range of activities, and as a result, it is becoming possible to consider project aid in priority fields not yet assisted. The Association's plans for FY72 take such possibilities into account. While there is provision for further lending for irrigation rehabilitation, highways, power distribution and education, projects are also being considered in six new fields: family planning, development finance, marine transport, smallholder rubber, industrial estates and tourism. Each involves difficult issues and new administrative problems, and not all may be ready for the Executive Directorst consideration in the next fiscal year. In any event, the IDA allocation for Indonesia may not suffice to cover all. Special emphasis is being

placed, however, on the family planring and development finance projects which are being appraised in June and September respectively. Each wiould represent an important step in the institution-building process and, as with most IDA credits, could set the stage for additional aid to these sectors from bilateral donors.

4. The first IDA credit to Indonesia was made in September 1968 and nine of the fourteen credits have been made since June 1, 1970. As project authorities were unfamiliar with the Association's procedures and requirements there have been initial delays on some projects. The implementation of the first and second Agricultural Estates Projects (Credits 155-IND and 194-IID) has been delayed, mainly due to problems of organization; progress is being made and the problems are gradually being resolved. Disbursements from Credit 155-IND are behind schedule, but the position is expected to improve soon since contracts have been awarded for US$4.1 million against which no disbursements have yet been made. Credit 194-IND was made effective on February 9, 1971 and disbursements are expected to start shortly. Progress in executing the first Highway Project (Credit 15h-IND) is satisfactory even though disbursements are lower than forecast at appraisal. The major items of equipment are now being delivered, after some delays due to un- familiarity with the Association's procurement procedures, and disbursements are expected to speed up. The Third Irrigation Rehabili- tation Project (Credit 220-IND) was declared effective on Play 28, 1971 and disbursement will start shortly. The Seeds Project (Credit 246-IND) was approved by the Board on May 11 and has not yet been declared effective. After a slow start disbursements on the balance of the credits are now satisfactory. As of May 31, 1971, of a total commit- ment of US$178.4 million, US$161.9 million remained undisbursed. The improving disbursement situation is evidenced by the fact that of the total disbursement of US$16.5 million, US$7.8 million has occured during the months of April and May. The pace of disbursements is likely to quicken further.

PART II - THE ECON0OiY

5. The Indonesian economy is still recovering from the damage, physical and institutional, caused by years of mismanagement, hyper- inflation and civil unrest during the latter years of the Sukarno regime. Initially the Soeharto Government was forced to concentrate on immediate objectives: halting inflation, increasing food production, rehabilitating infrastructure, attracting foreign investment and promoting primary exports, particularly minerals and estates crops.

6. The stabilization has not only brought prices under control but has also succeeded in establishing an environment conducive to development. Among measures taken to remove controls and open the economy to market forces has been the progressive simplification of the exchange system which is now virtually free of controls. A selective credit policy has encouraged production from existing capacity and, more recently, investment in new capacity. A new foreign investment law has encouraged the inflow of private capital and has been complemented by a domestic investment law with similar provisions. External and internal balance has been maintained and, wihere necessary, reinforced by measures such as the introduction in 1970 of a price support policy which appears to have had substantial effects on rice production.

7. A special economic report (EAP-22), prepared for the April 1971 meeting of the Inter-Governmental Group for Indonesia (IGGI), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 16, 1971. This report bears evidence of the continued economic improvement described in more detail in the last full economic report on Indonesia (EAP-19a of November 27, 1970). Economic and social data are contained in Annex II. IJhile reliable statistics are scarce, economic progress is evident in the marked increased in the production of textiles and other manufactured goods, in accelerated construction activities and in continuing export growth. Exports, led by oil, were 15 percent higher in 1970/71 than in the previous year in spite of lower prices for rubber. Rice production appears to have increased by over 5 percent in each of the last two years and foodgrains imports, which have been approaching a million tons annually, could be substantially lower this year. The available data on production, investment and imports indicate a growth in GDP in 1970/71 of approximately 8 percent.

8. The Government has a Five-Year Development Plan (1969-7h) which appropriately reflects the short-term needs of the economy and is being implemented as a series of annual programs. Highest priority is assigned to agriculture for both food production and export crops. Special emphasis is also placed on the rehabilitation of infrastructure, including transport and communications, power and irrigation systems. Programs covering the more urgent needs for physical rehabilitation have been drawn up, substantial external aid has been committed, and many of the works are in progress. More attention is now being given to new construction. In addition, the Government's energies are being directed increasingly to other major development problems, including the population pressures on Java and Bali, the requirements of the social sectors and the needs for regional balance in development.

9. Among the most serious and urgent problems at present, for the public sector as a whole, are those resulting from the deterioration of the administrative system and of its public institutions and agencies under the previous regime. The first steps towards the re- organization of the civil service have recently been taken and suggest a growing determination to make progress in this difficult field. Action is also underway to increase the efficiency and viability of some state enterprises, but there is still scope for considerable improvement.

- 4 -

10. Bank Group assistance to Indonesia is part of the international support being given in increasing amounts through the Inter-Governmental Group for Indonesia. Commitments of aid have risen from $200 million of program aid in 1967 to over $600 million in all forms of aid for 1971/72. The proportion of project aid has increased over this period, but substantial program aid remains essential for balance of payments support and, in spite of the strong domestic revenue efforts, as a supplement to rupiah resources for the development budget. IGGI project aid commitments from 1968 to M4arch 31, 1971 armounted to $584 million, of which IDA credits to that date accounted for $171 million (29 percent) and the Asian Development Bank for $24 million.

11. Following the rescheduling arrangements for pre-1966 external debt, which culminated in April 1970 in agreement on a long-term settlement of the debts held by Western creditors and Japan, and the subsequent separate agreement on similar lines with the USSR, the ratio of external debt service to exports is currently low. It will rise appreciably throughout the 1970ts, however, as grace periods expire on aid received after 1966, but should remain manageable during the decade and beyond if good export performance continues and if new aid remains available on terms similar to those at present obtained from the IGGI. All aid from the IGGI donors has been given on concessional terms approaching the standards set by the DAC; Australia's aid, and half that of the Netherlands has been in grant form. Several other countries have recently further softened their loan terms. Consistently with this pattern, the Bank Group's assistance to Indonesia (aside from IFC invesuments) has so far been provided exclusively in the form of IDA credits.

12. With recovery so recent, the longer-term prospects of the economy, including its aid requirements and the possible external debt trends, cannot yet be adequately assessed. Nor, because no adequate employment and income distribution data are available, is it yet possible to assess the social impact, although it has been clearly favorable, of the recent return to stability and the increase in production and investment. The national elections scheduled for July 3 are a further sign of the return to mnore normal conditions. They appear unlikely to result in any major change in the economic policies which have proved so effective since 1966.

13. The most recent economic report (EAP-22) takes a first look at longer-term economic perspectives. It suggests that satisfactory economic progress is possible in Indonesia over the next decade, provided that during the period the annual inflow of external resources, public and private, is substantially in excess of the 1970/71 level of nearly $600 million, including a public capital inflow of $400 million. This tentative conclusion assumes a continuation of sound economic policies and of present efforts to use efficiently the internal and external resources available.

- 5 -

PART III - THE? TRiANSPORT SECTOR

14. Indonesia is an archipelago of more than 3,000 islands, stretching 5,000 km along the equator. Conseq-uently, marine transport serve as tne miajor trunk system while roads and railways link the interiors of islands to their ports and provide for internal transport needs. Air traffic is still very small. As generally in Indonesia, reliable information for the sector is very scarce. Few reliable data on the distribution of traffic by mode, general transport costs or charges are available.

15. The current Five-Year Development Plan (1969-74) includes a Rp 100 billion (US$260 million) investment target for roads and road transport -- the sector where rehabilitation needs are most urgent -- Rp 33 billion (US$87 million) for railways, Rp 46 billion (US$122 million) for marine transport, and Rp 21 billion (US$56 million) for aviation. The allocation among modes was prepared without adequate information and is only a rough framework. Current trends indicate that actual investments for the whole sector over the Five-Year Plan period are likely to be close to the original target of Rp 200 billion, but that there may be substantial depar- tures from the original allocations among modes in view of the knowledge and experience accumulated since the basic Plan was formulated.

16. Project and budget preparation for highwzay construction originate in the Directorate-General of Highways in the iinistry of Public W,1orks and Power; for other modes they originate in the Directorates-General of Sea Communications, Alviation, and Land Transport in the Kinistry of Communications. The project proposals are re- viewed by planning bureaus of these NoIinistries and subsequently by the Communications and Infrastructure Division of the National Planning Council (BAPPEENAS), which is responsible for determining the total investment budget for the sector. However, the original presentations are such that comparisons of projects even within one transport mode are difficult. Neither the N1inistries nor the Planning Council has adequate staff to prepare or evaluate inves-tment proposals, and foreign experts from the UiDP-financed Transport Coordination Advisory Services (TCAS) are being used for tl-is p1arpose.

17. Urgent requirements of project identification and preparation in the transport agencies are being met by technical assistance. The UNDP is financing consulting services to assist the Government's highway agency in determining investment priorities and planning an efficient highway organization. The Association is financing technical support services, as a follow-up to the UNDP-financed services, to assist and advise on highway planning and on execution of highway rehabilitation and maintenance programs. The Netherlands Government, is

- 6 - providing technical assistance in inter-island shipping and is financing consulting services for port rehabilitation and dredging. The Belgian Governrment is providing an inland waterway survey team. A consulting team from the Federal Republic of GermaMry is assisting the railways. The Canadian Government is expected to begin technical assistance in aviation in 1971 to complement the on-going assistance from the Netherlands Government to the national flag carrier, Garuda. These technical assistance teams are improving project preparation in the agencies, but pro-ress in training local personnel is slow. It is likely that continued technical assistance will be required in the foreseeable future.

PART IV - THE PROJECT

18. This project, which is considered critical to Sumatra's development, entails a major investment outside the island of Java and reflects the growing importance attached by the Government to regional balance in Indonesia s development. The importance of this consideration is also underscored by inclusion in this project of financinr for a study whnich is to lead to formulation of a regional development program for the influence area of the highway. The proposed project represents the first stage of a program to rehabilitate and irmprove the trunk road linking Medan in the north of Sumatra wTith Telukbetung in the south. The rehabilitation of this artery was assigned highest priority among development oriented highway investments by UNDP consultants under a study for wihich the Bank is executing agency. The same consultants also identified the 50O km central portion of this artery (the Sawatambang-Muarabungo-Lubuklinggau section) as being most urgently in need of rehabilitation. This project makes provision for construction of the first 200 km section of that highway. The main features of the proposed credit and the project are suxmmarized in Annex III, which also includes maps.

19. More specifically the project comprises:

(a) construction to two-l-mne paved standards of about 200 km of a national highway between Sawatambang and M4uarabungo and supervision by consultants;

(b) detailed engineering of an extension, about 300 Ilm long, of the national highway be-tween I4uarabungo and Lubuklinggau;

(c) a regional study of the area served by the Sawatambang- Muarabungo-Lubuklinggau national highway and subsequent detailed engineering of ahout 500 km of feeder roads in that area; and

(d) detailed engineering of about 700 km of a national highway between Padang and Medan and of sorme 500 km of related feeder roads.

20. Detailed engineering for the Sawatambang-Muarabungo section has been completed under Credit 216-111D (Second Technical Assista-re Project) followring a UNDP-financed feasibility study. Originally the detailed engineering of the portion between 1luarabungo and Lubuklinggau was also to have been financed under Credit 216-DID, but has now been included in this project in order to conserve Credit 216-IND funds for other high priority studies. Arrangements are being made to have the feasibility study for the Medan-Padang portion financed out of unutilized funds in the UNDP Highwiay Assistance and Transport Coordination Studies - a project designed to assist the Government in planning the country's transport sector - wJith cost overruns, if any, to be financed by Credit 216-IND.

21. As already emphasized, there is a continuing need in Indonesia to improve the data base for formulation of a comprehensive and rational transport policy. Therefore, in conjunction with this project, the Goverrment has undertaken to carry out a comprehensive national study of the levels and distribution of road user charges and to continue and expand traffic counting to include selective counts by vehicle type.

22. The total cost of the project (including contingencies) is estimated at $49 million, including a foreign exchange component of $34 million (approximately 70 percent of the total cost) which is to be financed by the proposed credit. Approximately US$27 million of the total foreign exchange cost is for construction, including supervision by consultants and contingencies. The balance represents consultants' costs in carr-ying out the detailed engineering of the Muarabungo- Lubuklinggau and Medan-Padang sections and associated feeder roads, and the regional study of the area served by the Sawatambang-Muarabungo- Lubuklinggau national highway. Funds from the credit Trill be disbursed on the basis of 65 percent of the cost of highway construction, equal to the estimated foreign exchange component thereof, and actual foreign exchange cost of consultants' services. The Government will cover the local currency expenditures equivalent to US$15 million.

23. The Directorate-General of Highways, assisted by qualified consultants, will be responsible for executing the project. The Directorate, which is part of the Ministry of Public lorks and Power, is also responsible for executing the highway rehabilitation project financed under Credit 154-IMD, and hence is familiar with the Associationts procedures. Consequently, the delays experienced with that project are not expected in this one.

24. The construction portion of the project will be carried out by contractors, and bidding for construction will be in accordance writh the Association's guidelines for international competitive bidding. The civil works will be grouped into bid packages of sufficient value to attract widespread international competition. Since construction programs have been small in recent years, grow-ith of local contractors has been inhibited. There are no local contractors capable of undertaking the major hir-hway construction involved in this project. The Government, however, plans to encourage the participation of local contractors in future projects, which will include considerable feeder road construction.

- 8 -

25. The area where actual construction is to take place was relatively well developed before Wiorld W,Jar II but has now been re- duced to scattered subsistence farming, mainly as a result of the continued deterioration of the road network. With the new road, a rehabilitation of primary production should be possible through the opening up of new areas for agriculture and forestry and the lowering of transport costs for the region's exports. IJhile the construction portion of the proposed project is fully justified on the basis of immediately identifiable benefits, the re-jional study is expected to point the way towuard maximizing the highway's impact upon the region.

26. Population density is low and unemployment is not a serious problem in the project area. Construction by labor-intensive methods is therefore not practicable. As development in the project area gets undernay this area will become increasingly attractive to po-ten- tial mi,rants from crowded Java. At that time labor-intensive methods will become increasingly feasible. It is unlikely, however, that sizeable migration into this area will take place prior to completion of the regional study included in this project and the subsequent drawing up of a development pro7ram.

27. The immediately identifiable benefits from the highway construction are: (a) savings in transport costs; (b) development induced by the new road (i.e. value added in production of rubber, rice and timber). Using these benefits, the most likely rate of return is 19 percent. Sensitivity analysis suggests that even with the worst possible combination of consequences the rate of return would not fall below 12 percent and could, under more favorable asswup- tions, be as high as 26 percent. None of these calculations makes allowance for the increased benefits that would be realized through implementation of the findings of the regional development study for which financing is provided in the proposed credit. The project is not expected to give rise to any serious ecological problems.

PART V - LEGAL INSTRUI1ENT2S AND AIUTHORITY

28. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Indonesia and the Association, the recommendation of the Committee referred to in Article V section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association, and the text of a draft resolution approving the proposed credit are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. The draft Development Credit Agreement is in the usual form for this type of project.

29. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association.

PART VI - RECC1EIiE.-TD.TTOIT

30. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Development Credit.

Robert S. McNamara Waslhington, D.C. President June 7, 1971

ANNEX I

BANlK GROUP OPERATIONS IN I1DOIESIA

I. IDA OPERATIONS

The folloiwing is a summary statement of IDA Credits to Indonesia to date, with undisbursed balances as of May 31, 1971.

Credit Fiscal US$ Million No. Year Purpose Amount Undisbursed

127 1969 Irrigation Rehabilitation 5.o 2.1 135 1969 Technical Assistance 2.0 0.8 154 1969 Highways 28.0 20.2 155 1969 Agricultural Estates 16.0 13.2 165 1970 Electricity Distribution 15.0 14.4 193 1970 PUSRI Fertilizer Expansion 30.0 29.7 194 1970 Agricultural Estates II 17.0 17.0 195 1970 Irrigation Rehabilitation II 18.5 18.2 210 1971 Telecommunications Expansion 12.8 12.8 211 1971 Fisheries 3.5 3.5 216 1971 Technical Assistance II 4.0 3.4 219 1971 Education 4.6 4.6 220 1971 Irrigation Rehabilitation III 14.5 14.5 246 1971 Seeds 7.5 7.5

Total 178.4 161.9

a/ II. IFC OPERATIONS

IFC Participation (US$ million) Fiscal Year Borrower Equity Loan

1971 P.T. Tjibinong Cement 2.0 10.6 1971 P.T. Unitex (textiles) o.8 2.5 1971 P.T. Primatexco Indonesia 0.5 2.0 (textiles) Total 3.3 15.1

a/ These commitments have been approved by the IFC Board but have not yet been signed

ANNEX II Page 1 of 2

INDONESIA: COUNTRY DATA

I. Economic and Structural Indicators

Area 1,904,639 square kilometers

Land use as percentage of total area: Estate agriculture 1.1 Other agriculture 13.1 (a) food crops (9.3) (b) cash crops (3.8) Fo9&5t resources 12.6

Population (1970) 121.1 million Density per square kilometer 64 Density in Java 592 a/

Gross Domestic Product (1970) Rp 3,328 billion a/ Per Capita GDP (1970) $73

Changes in December December % Increase - 1969 1970 - (a) monetary Situation

Total Money Supply Rp billion 180 243 35 Time Deposits (State Bank) Rp billion 34 50 47 Price Index (September 1966 = 100) 575 626 9 (b) Foreign Exchange Reserves

Gross $ million 119 157 Net $ million - 86 - 51 External Public Debt Outstanding at June 30, 1970 $ million 3,516 Debt Service liability in 1970/71 $ million 120 Debt Service as % of Exports 1970/71 10-~

a/ Preliminary b/ After rescheduling

ANrJiEX II Page 2 of 2

Balance of Payments ($ million) 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 Actual Provisiona Estimates

Exports of Goods and Services 1,039 1,196 1,420 Imports of Goods and Services 1,443 1,612 1,926 Current Account Deficit - 404 - 416 - 506

Public Sector Operations (Rp billion)

Government Current Receipts 243.6 344 416 Government Current Expenditures 216.5 310 364 Current Budget Surplus 27.1 34 52 Counterpart Transfers 69.2 73 90 Project Aid Disbursements 23.0 28 53 Development Expenditures 119.3 135 195

II. Social Indicators

Population growth rate (1965-70) % 2.6 Urban population growth (1965-70) % 3.0 tUnew"loyment rate a/ Income distribution a/

School enrolment (primary and secondary) % school age population 50 Literacy rate % adult population 60 Population per hospital bed 1,470 Expenditure on social development as % of total development expenditures (1970/71) 18.5 (a) Education (10.4) (b) Health and Other ( 8.1)

a/ No data available

ANNEX III Page 1 of 3

CR2DTT !;ITrOP-LOJECT DATA I. CREDIT SUMMARY

Borrower: Republic of Indonesia

Amount: In various currencies equivalent to US$34 million

Amortization: In 50 years, including a 10-year period of grace, through semi-annual installments of 1/2 of one percent from September 1, 1981 through March 1, 1991 and 1-1/2 percent from September 1, 1991 tnirough March 1, 2021

Service Charge: 3/4 of one percent

II. SECTOR DATA

Public Highways: - National 10,140 km - Provincial 22,680 km - County 49,120 ioa

Total 81,940 kan

Type of Surface: - Asphaltic concrete 150 km - Bituminous Surface Treatment 15,500 km - Gravel 33,850 km - Earth 32,500 km

Total 4-wheel motorized vehicles: 1961 1969

Indonesia 196,627 328,281 Sumatra n.a. 67,804

ANNEX III Page 2 of 3

III. PROJECT DATA

Brief Description: The reconstruction and improvement of the major trunk road between Nedan and Telukbetung in Sumatra, the second largest island in Indonesia, will be an important step in the economic development of that island. This project includes construction of the 200 km Sawatambang-Muarabungo section of that highway, detailed engineering for the 300 kn section between Muarabungo and Lubuklinggau, a regional study of the area to be served by the Sawatambang-Muarabungo- Lubuklinggau section, and the detailed engineering of a further 500 km section between Medan and Padang.

New Construction - about 200 km Detailed Engineering: Trunk roads - about 1,000 km Feeder roads - about 1,000 km2 Regional Study Area - about 60,000 I-cm

Design Standards: Design speed - flat terrain 80 km/h - rolling terrain 60 km/h - mountain terrain 40 km/h

Pavement width 7.0 m Shoulder width 2.0 m Surface type Bituminous surface treatment Pavement loading 10 metric ton single axle

Local Foreign Total

Cost Estimate: Construction 11.2 20.8 32.0 (in US$ million) Construction supervision 0.3 1.5 1.8 Detailed engineering 1.0 4.6 5.6 Regional study 0.4 1.4 1.8 12.9 7273 41.2

Contingencies - physical 1.2 2.8 4.0 - price 0.9 2.9 3.8

Total 15.0 34.0 49.0

Procurement: The civil works wqill be grouped into bid packages of sufficient value to attract widespread international competition. Biddors have to be precqualified.

ANNEX III Page 3 of 3

Estimated Construction, Period: Four years

Estimated Disbursement: $4 million in FY72, $12.5 million in FY73, $10.5 million in FY74, $6 million in FY75, and $1 million in FY76

Estimated Economic Rate of Return: 19 percent (for road construction)

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