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Niger Vulnerability Assessment

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Niger Vulnerability Assessment FEWS Country Report JUNE 1989 NIGER VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Produced by the Office of Technical Resources - Africa Bureau - USAID FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) is an Agency-wide effort coordinated by the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). Its mission is to assemble, analyze and report on the complex conditions which may lead to famine in any one of the following drought-prone countries in Africa: * Burklna # Chad * Ethiopia 0 Mall " Mauritania * Niger e Sudan FEWS reflects 'ae Africa Bureau's commitment to providing reliable and timely information to decision-makers within the Agency, and among the broader donor community, so that they can take appropriate actiors to avert a famine. The FEWS system obtains information directly from FEWS Field Repr-.sentatives assigned to six USAID Missions. In addition, FEWS relies on informftion it obtains from a wide variety of sources including: USAID Missions, host governments, private voluntary organizations, international donor and relief agencies, and the remote sensing and academic commanities. This is the final report prepared under FEWS Phase I. The vulnerability assessment was comp)eted for USAID's Africa Bureau by Price, Wlllamg &Associates, Inc. Under Phase I, the work of the FEWS Field Representatives was coordinated by Tulane University's School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. NOTE: This publication is a working document and should not be construed as an official pronouncement of the U. S.Agency for International Dcvelopmnnt. NIGER Vulnerability Assessment June 1989 Contents Executive Summary 1 Vulnerable/At-Risk Populations 3 Causes of Reduced/Increased Access to Food 3 Food Accounting 6 Manifestations of Reduced Access to Food 7 Appendix 1 13 Appendix 2 14 List of Figures Map 1 Summary of Vulnerability 2 Map 2 Causes of Food Stress 4 Map 3 Food Accounting 8 Map 4 Manifestations of Food Stress 9 FEWS Vulnerability Assessment -Niger Page I NIGER Vulnerability Assessment Executive Summary No large populations or areas that will require fcod assistance before the next harvest period were found as a result of this assessment. The indicators that were assessed conclude that the most likely areas of potential vulnerability lie within the Air Mountains. Many other areas appear to have greatly bettered their short and even medium-term food security as a result of exce!lent harvests, plentiful pastures, and enormous on-farm stocks. DRY FORECAST FOR 1989 RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL The Synoptic Climatology Branch (SCB) of the U.K. Meteorological Office forecasts a 60% chance that the Sahel will receive less than 7.5% of normal rainfall. The SCB therefore expects rainfall to be less than 1988 (an average year compared to the long-term mean) but more than the "very dry years of 1986 and 1987'. As part of the SCB's research into the effects of sea surface temperatures on Sahelian rainfall, it has made experimental rainfall forecasts each year since 1986. The SCB employs four forecast methods, all based upon sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in April. Three statistial methods predict that 1989 will be dry to very dry. A dynamic general circulation model method predicts more rain in the Sahel than either of the statistical methods. At this early stage of research, the SCB has more confidence in the dry forecast. The SCB warns that the forecasts are experimental and must be used with caution. The forecasts are based on the assumption that sea surface temperature anomalies will not change in an unusual way between spring and summer. This assumption broke down for the 1988 forecast, leading the SCB to continue monitoring sea surface temperatures after April this year. FEWS Vulnerability ALsessment - Niger Page 1 i 1 14 1 0 50 100 200 300 SUMMARY OF VULNERABILITY: miles L 0L I B Y A0oe­ Overlay Of Causes, Food 0 50 100 200 Soo kilometers Accounts, And Manifestations K- M Vulnerable to Famine - - - Significant Increases in A L G E R I A Food Security International Boundary / , -DepartmentalBoundary / / National Capital 0 / AGADEZ 20 Departmental Capital - .Iferouan, * Cities and Towns .. Arlit I Primary Road ! " Secondary Road i Track -... I -, : :u; ::' - - . TA]HOUA Aadez FEWS/PWA. June 1989 - i 0 2 16- TabaradenTchin- '00A DIFFA"-16 MALA - reILL A ERYu ZINDER CHAD Ouali y eI ""-"-.-- Iqsu / / )~MARAI *.-Nguig - os!2~, _ ____ omadodCkac y .. ... ... .... 2 f - SS I' Ra ) __ _ _ 28 0 1 0~ 1 20 %8 A4 I.Vulnerable/At-Risk Populations and southern N'Guigmi arrondissements. A sparse dataset and the low resolution of most of iMethodoiogy:Vulnerability Asseasmen : the indicators covering this zone inhibit seeing the structural characteristics of afragile food produc­ ........ 'Thiae FEWS vulnerability assessment uses tion system that lie within this chronic food stress a .o-eteorological anld soclo economic su.rg.n I0ca,l:tfnt oralde to faminelatiFourstagles This assessment also concludes that major .... un.ra.i.. i.dnifid v.lnele at decreases in level-of-vulnerability were seen in ri ntrit.ionalA. emer ncy.and famin . Be. several parts of the country. Largely due to the ex­ c:ause !availabie Indicatodata efreqtetiy .!: ceflent growing conditions leading to good har­ bf relatively poor qulity, or without exten. vests and pastures, Say, Tera, Filingu, Il161a, sive baselines .for reference, FEWS relies Tanout, northern Tessaoua, and Mirria arrondis­ yupQ.) a "convergence of evidence", a com- sements, in particular, appear to have significant­ paflsonofseverai Indicators to interpret the ly improved their food ,ecurity from previous meaning of any single indicator.: Each sec- years. On-farm food stocks in some areas may be tion that follows:(Causes, Food Accounting, sufficient for several years of consumption needs. .::Manifestations) uses Indicator data In dif­ ferent ways to locate actual and potential- II.Causes of Reduced/Increased Access to food:stress (see Appendix:1 for details). Food Each surface of food stress thus created Is Imathematically weighted: for significance to - vulnerabllty,: subjective Judgements are ap Methodology:, Causes of Reduced or plied :and -then.the surfaces. of food. strass Increasetd Access to Food are::comnbined into a summary of vul-. :r~rbilW,apsf~i eah srfae ad ~Fcod is; acquired through: production, ex­ :Isummary arG provided within this assess- chan , lort.ansfer (gifts:!)., Mantay factors, In­ ment. eluding rainfall, pests, floods, and warfare, "_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _can affect these acquisition mchanisms. This section provides a qualitative meIto these factors and their likelyassess-.­ impact:: The general level of vulnerability across Niger on of aes s app jars, on the basis of indicators that were ex­ amined during this assessmeznt (see indicator descriptions within Appendix 2), to have declined since the 1988 harvest. Contrary to recent years, Few significant events or short-term conditions no sigzificant populations or specific areas were have been identified during this assessment that found that may, as a whole, require assistance would indicate a decrease in food access for an before the next harvest period. Vulnerabilities identifiable segment of the population or any seem, rather, family and somethries village- specific area in Niger. If such problems exist on specific. Map 1 shows this assessment's con- any scale, they are likely to be found in certain gar­ clusion that vulnerable areas and populations will de-dependent villages of the Air Mountains likely be found in the Air Mountains. This isbased where marginal growing conditions were wor­ upon pest damage, cereal price activity, apattern send by locust problems (see Map 2). El­ ofchronic food access problems, and limited data sewhere, anecdotal information appears to about food availability. Nevertheless, local suggest that relatively small populations and areas problems are probably also found in acentral belt may have suffered from decreased access to food of Niger running roughly between Ouallam, due to problems of flooding, pests, or other local northern Filingue, southern Tchin-Tabaraden calamities, but the scale of these problems is and Tchirozerine, Goure, Maind-Soroa, Diffa, below the resolution of this assersment. FEWS Vulnerability Assessment - Niger Page 3 S68 10 N GE R , , \12 , 14, 16 0 50 100 200 CAUSES OF FOOD STRESS: __ ,_,__I 300 miles Consequences Of Faeicrs 0 B Y A__. 50 I0 0 iomtr *% Affecting Food Access 0 0l0 2e0ers Significantly Decreased 2- Food Access AI Probably Decreased A.L..iR I. Food Access / Significantly Increased Food Access 2 . 20 International Boundary - ........Departmental Boundary --+ ouane National Capital - itlm Bima " Departmental Capital a Cities and Towns "',. # Agadez ."|­ FEWS/PWA, June 1989 ,. 0 c " .-' DIFFA 0 2 16 V Tabaraden/ 7, .IFF S- - ­ - -- ,....... f-._y;. i./uILL TILLABERY.A,; ":Tahoua.,.' * "/./v .- .Zl7. Ta/.nout/. "/ // 7 - ",/ /// " './'jy C,, H A D S I X# / l F ilnsue..Ql/l~e-a'7/' "-,, koo. /. ._7'. (J Y7;;/////:d;lI / ;.// ' 4 ./l MAAD -- ,. <.eye//z /-/-//.. 1-r. -- . / . , ,7 i i,, 4 //N"g-..ig -,r-n,,j. 4 I G E R I .Yaradi// ////\ : " S0 2 46 3 101 0 10 12 14 16 L Most evidence presently available suggests that Maradi, all across southern Zinder Department, general food security within Niger is probably as and along the river in Diffa Arrondissement. In good as it has been "'.any recent year (the single- some cases the floods caused measurable, though hatched areas on ,,ap 2 summnarize where events relatively slight, loss to agricalture,
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