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Courtyard by Marriott Victoria 10-24-2011 Page 1 of 97 October 24, 2011 FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY STUDY: Courtyard by Marriott XxxxxxxxxxxXxx Xxxxxxxxxxx xxxx Xxxxxx Xxxxxx Xxxxxxxx Victoria, Texas 77904 This study has been prepared to determine the financial feasibility of developing and operating a 108 unit Courtyard by Marriott hotel in the Victoria Mall, in Victoria, Texas. The hotel site is located adjacent to the Cinemark Theater, and is expected to open in July of 2013. The 2.2 acre site is convenient to many restaurants, businesses, and other local amenities, as well as to the main traffic corridors through the area. With proper signage the it should have good visibility, with easy access for area travelers and industrial workers. Project quality is set to meet the physical and operating standards of the Courtyard brand, a product of Marriott Corporation. All projections herein are based on operating this hotel as a Courtyard, and retaining the brand in good standing at the time of an assumed sale after 10 years. Actual market acceptance for a Courtyard by Marriott has been quantified versus market averages, and has been assumed in developing this study. Operating costs are set at the level of similar 'Select-Service’ hotels in the region. KEY FINDING: Developing and opening a Courtyard by Marriott at this site should generate an unleveraged, pre-tax return on total invested capital exceeding 14%, with a return on equity exceeding 45%. This is a good hotel investment. This return on invested capital also assumes that improvements per unit are completed at the developer’s estimated cost of $128,704, plus land cost of $1,100,000. Project details follow: PO Box 120055, San Antonio, TX 78212 ♦210-734-3434♦ Fax 210-735-7970 ♦ www.SourceStrategies.Org Page 2 of 97 1 Total Investment Est. Land Investment $ 1,100,000 for 2.2 acres Improvements $13,900,000 @ $128,704 per unit Total Investment $15,000,000 Pre-Tax Project Return 14.39%2 Pre-Tax Return on Equity 45.23%3 This study incorporates the current downturn in the Texas hotel market, caused by the broader national recession, which began in late 2008. In our Market section, we highlight the historical hotel performance in Texas, noting the effect of past recessions. While every market has its own unique characteristics, our projections for the local area market consider how the lodging industry reacts in times of economic downturn and in normal times. We anticipate that the current downturn will continue to impact subject markets through 2011, followed by a slow, long-term period of recovery. See the Market section for more details. With a planned July 2013 opening, cash flow market projections for the Courtyard by Marriott, Victoria, before taxes and after renovation reserves, should be available for debt service, income tax and dividends as follows: Occupancy Average $ Total Percent $ Rate REVPAR Revenue CashFlow** Year I 69.2% $120.38* $83.34 $3,958,596 $1,504,524 Year II 74.5% $132.52 $98.75 $4,690,753 $1,877,484 Year III 75.6% $139.72 $105.66 $5,018,900 $2,039,058 Year IV 74.9% $144.59 $108.30 $5,144,372 $2,092,538 Year V 74.5% $148.92 $111.01 $5,272,981 $2,143,409 Year VI 73.7% $151.90 $111.88 $5,314,545 $2,145,285 Year VII 72.8% $154.94 $112.76 $5,356,437 $2,146,834 Year VIII 72.3% $157.26 $113.65 $5,398,659 $2,143,572 Year IX 71.9% $159.21 $114.55 $5,441,215 $2,137,388 Year X 72.0% $160.80 $115.73 $5,497,481 $20,760,690*** *Year I ADR equates to approximately $115 in current market dollars.**Before Income Tax & Financing expense, but reflecting $2,554,644 in reserves for capital expenditures / property renovation ($23,655 per unit). ***assumes valuing property at Year 10 cash flow at an 11% return-to-buyer, less 4% expense of sale, plus year 10 cash flow. 1 developer's estimate of investment in improvements and land. 2 after reserve for on-going renovations 3 assuming 23% equity and 77% debt at a 6% pre-tax debt cost; calculated weighted average. Page 3 of 97 The above cash flow, assuming a Year 10 sale, has been discounted at the rate of 14.39% to a present value of $15,004,709, approximating the total budgeted investment of $15,000,000. This 14.39% is the project's unleveraged return, provided capital is kept at this level. An estimated capital budget for construction and FF&E of $128,704 per unit 'turn-key' costs for a hotel of this size and quality is above average for the brand, in our experience. If capital outlays vary from budget for this project, returns will vary accordingly. The following table illustrates the linear nature of financial returns as capital requirements escalate or decline and revenue streams remain stable. Effect on Returns if Capital Investment Changes4 Improvements Budget Land Total Discounted Cash Flow Variance Per Unit Total Cost Investment Total Proj On Equity (85%) $109.4 $11,815 $1,100 $12,915 17.16% 57.10% (90%) $115.8 $12,510 $1,100 $13,610 16.17% 52.86% (95%) $122.3 $13,205 $1,100 $14,305 15.25% 48.92% BUDGET $128.7 $13,900 $1,100 $15,000 14.39% 45.23% (105%) $135.1 $14,595 $1,100 $15,695 13.59% 41.80% (110%) $141.6 $15,290 $1,100 $16,390 12.84% 38.59% (115%) $148.0 $15,985 $1,100 $17,085 12.13% 35.55% 4 Discounted Cash Flow / Internal Rate of Return. Page 4 of 97 The critical statistic used in this study is REVPAR. REVPAR means revenue per available room per day, and reflects the average daily room revenue yield of every room in a property or market (not just occupied rooms). REVPAR is generated by multiplying occupancy times rate (i.e. REVPAR = % occupancy times average daily rate), and is the most effective and important tool in the evaluation of the success of any lodging concern. A detailed look at Year III shows the following: Year III 2015/2016 Room Revenues $4,165,062 Total Revenues $5,018,900 Income Before Fixed Costs $2,605,703 (51.9%) Net Income Before Tax & Fin. $1,933,593 (38.5%) Cash Flow Before Financing $2,039,058 (40.6%)5 Occupancy % 75.6% Average Daily Rate $139.72 $ REVPAR $105.66 Per Occupied Room Cost $ 57.88 SUMMARY OF CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS: Critical assumptions are summarized as follows, with the Market History and Projection study (page 11) following the Methodology section (page 7). 1. Projections of the local area market reflect a mixture of old properties and newer competitive hotels. The average hotel room in the local market is 21 years old, over two-thirds of the way through the life cycle of the typical hotel building, and well past its peak performing years. The typical hotel building becomes stylistically and structurally obsolete after 30 years, though this figure is larger for high-rise/concrete structures. The local market has 1,238 hotel rooms built before 1990, and 752 rooms built since that date. There is typically a wide and dramatic gap between the performance of new and older properties, with the typical hotel in the area either being relatively new and competitive or older and on its way to closure. 5 Before deductions of loan principal and interest, before income tax deductions, and before any equity payout. Page 5 of 97 For this region of Texas, one that is highly impacted by extremely strong demand for hotel rooms, we expect that long term demand will moderate and a large amount of new hotels will be built (though this will be partially offset by the closure of many of the older hotels in the market). We are comfortable with market projections. After rising sharply in the past 12 months due a major influx of oil and gas industry revenue, and the recovery from recession, occupancy is expected to recede to an equilibrium level of 56%. Further, REVPAR growth in this market is projected to moderate, increasing only 1.6% annually over the next nine years, following the recent unsustainably high level of growth (7.8% per year for the last four years). Market projections commence on page 16. VICTORIA & SURROUNDING COUNTIES MARKET6 Year Occupancy % $ REVPAR 2002 49.0% $ 23.37 2004 52.1% $ 25.43 2006 53.2% $ 29.71 2008 57.3% $ 35.66 2010/11 60.9% $ 42.547 Projected 2013 56.3% $ 42.30 2018 55.5% $ 48.37 Historical Annual Compound Growth Rates Past 9 Year Average 2.2% 6.7% Past 4 Year Average 2.6% 7.8% Past Year Average 27.3% 41.5% Future Annual Compound Growth Rates Next 9 Years -1.0% 1.6% Next 5 Years -1.9% -0.9% 2. Versus the local market's REVPAR dollar projections, the REVPAR index of the proposed Courtyard by Marriott ramps upwards, and peaks at 238% of the market average REVPAR in Years III-V. Thereafter, the REVPAR Index declines due to the normal aging cycle. Detailed REVPAR derivation and subsequent projections commence on page 25. 6 Victoria & Surrounding Counties Area: Victoria, Refugio, Goliad, DeWitt, Lavaca, Jackson, Calhoun. 7 12 months ending June 30, 2011. Page 6 of 97 COURTYARD BY MARRIOTT DERIVATION Data in 2010/11 $’s Year I Year II Year III Base: Name Type & Quality 1.63 1.63 1.63 x Brand Age Adjustment 1.01 1.01 1.01 x Site Value Adjustment 1.20 1.20 1.20 x Size Adjustment 1.08 1.08 1.08 x Other Adjustments 1.00 1.00 1.00 x Newness Adjustment 0.92 1.07 1.12 =Theor.
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