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Predicting the Probability of War During Brinkmanship Crises: the Beagle and the Malvinas Conflicts

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Predicting the Probability of War During Brinkmanship Crises: the Beagle and the Malvinas Conflicts A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Corbacho, Alejandro Luis Working Paper Predicting the probability of war during Brinkmanship crises: The Beagle and the Malvinas conflicts Serie Documentos de Trabajo, No. 244 Provided in Cooperation with: University of CEMA, Buenos Aires Suggested Citation: Corbacho, Alejandro Luis (2003) : Predicting the probability of war during Brinkmanship crises: The Beagle and the Malvinas conflicts, Serie Documentos de Trabajo, No. 244, Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA), Buenos Aires This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/84403 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu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email protected]);7)42+.29,+.5*4)62/,*2@3.)+8)4,/77@.,*.29).4/+).-;.29).0-+2.4-00-*.2@8) -;.46,+,+3.?6,*D0/*+9,83.B9)6).-*).+2/2)E+. =)4,+,-*F0/D)6+. 49/77)*1). 29). 4-00,20)*2. -; G /*-29)6.+2/2). ,*.-6=)6.2-./=:/*4).29),6. ,*2)6)+2+3. ):)*. /2. 29). 6,+D. -;. 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