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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Introduction 1. Rationale. Rail Transport Has Railway Rolling Stock Operations Improvement Project (RRP BAN 50312-003) FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Introduction 1. Rationale. Rail transport has been a major mode of transport in Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. However, as a result of inadequate investment in physical infrastructure, and increasing competition from road transport, the market share of Bangladesh Railway in passenger and freight traffic declined from 30% in 1975 to about 4% in 2005.1 As rail transport is generally considered cheaper, safer, more fuel-efficient, and more sustainable than road transport, the government recognized the need for scaling up railway infrastructure investments in its Five-Year Plan for fiscal year (FY)2016–FY2020, with the aim to increase rail market share to 10% for passenger transport and 15% for freight by 2020.2 2. Network and rolling stock fleet. Bangladesh Railway’s network consists of 2,609 kilometers (km) of meter gauge tracks, 1,000 km of broad gauge tracks, and 575 km of dual gauge tracks. Bangladesh Railway faces chronic operational issues and inefficiencies due to the aging of its locomotives and freight wagons. At the end of FY2016, it owned 278 diesel locomotives, 1,249 coaching vehicles, and 8,677 freight wagons. However, most locomotives are over 30 years old and exceed their economic lives. About 90% of freight wagons are over 30 years old. As the rolling stock continues to age, reliability, performance, and fuel efficiency decrease, and the maintenance and running costs increase. For instance, broad gauge locomotives are estimated to break down unexpectedly 0.79 times per year on average. Significant investments are thus required to maintain and improve service levels across the networks. 3. Project details. The Railway Rolling Stock Operations Improvement Project is proposed to procure 40 broad gauge locomotives, 50 broad gauge and 75 meter gauge luggage vans, and 420 broad gauge and 580 meter gauge freight wagons. By providing modern, safe, reliable, and efficient locomotives and freight wagons, the project is expected to significantly contribute to (i) sustaining and improving service levels for existing demand, (ii) adding sufficient capacity to cater for the increase in freight and passenger demand, (iii) improving the operational efficiency of Bangladesh Railway, and (iv) improving the financial sustainability of Bangladesh Railway. In addition, the project will finance the detailed design studies of one locomotive shed and three maintenance workshops, which are required to sustain the investments. B. Financial Analysis 4. Operating environment. The analysis assessed the financial viability and sustainability of the project in the context of Bangladesh Railway’s operating environment. Bangladesh Railway plays a vital role in the country’s social and economic development and, while it serves as a commercial enterprise, it also receives a public service obligation (PSO) subsidy from the government to provide non-commercially viable services, including (i) operating branch lines with lower levels of traffic, (ii) carrying materials and transporting passengers at concessional rates, and (iii) carrying military traffic at concessional rates. Bangladesh Railway’s operating expenses have remained consistently higher than its revenues since FY2000. In FY2016, the operating ratio (ratio of operating expenses to revenues) was 246% excluding the PSO subsidy, and 217% including the PSO subsidy. Operating costs are primarily driven by maintenance and fuel costs, which represent 32.2% and 16.2%, respectively, of Bangladesh Railway’s overall expenses. 1 G.M. K. Alam. 2015. Strategy for Infrastructure Sector. Background Paper for the Seventh Five-Year Plan. Dhaka. 2 Government of Bangladesh, Planning Commission. 2015. Seventh Five-Year Plan FY2016-2020. Dhaka. 2 5. Project costs and revenues. The project will directly contribute to (i) sustaining existing revenues from passenger and freight charges through the replacement of 40 broad gauge locomotives; and (ii) generating incremental freight revenues, through the addition of 1,125 luggage vans and freight wagons. The project is therefore considered as revenue generating. The financial analysis was carried out in accordance with Asian Development Bank (ADB) guidelines by comparing the project’s financial internal rate of return (FIRR) of net cash flows against the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).3 6. Tariff and railway reform. Passenger and freight tariff rates have remained historically low as a result of government policy. With ADB support, tariffs were adjusted for the first time since 1992 in 2012 (50% to 115% increase) and 2016 (7.8% increase). 4 The operating ratio excluding PSO subsidy has correspondingly shown a decreasing trend from 260% in FY2012 to 246% in FY2016, yet still far from the self-sustainable level. Continuous efforts to improve the operational efficiency and increase revenues are required to improve the financial sustainability of Bangladesh Railway. 7. Key financial assumptions. The financial cost-benefit analysis was undertaken with the following assumptions: (i) the procurement of rolling stock is conducted over a 4-year period from 2018; (ii) the evaluation period is 30 years from completion of procurement; (iii) incremental operating costs and revenues of the project are calculated using the existing, system-wide operating costs and revenues on a passenger-kilometer and ton-kilometer basis for broad gauge and meter gauge networks; (iv) capital costs include the cost of locomotives, luggage coaches, freight wagons, spares, training, and taxes, but excludes price contingencies and financing charges; (v) operating costs include all operating, maintenance, fuel, administration, and miscellaneous costs; (vi) passenger and freight tariffs were assumed to increase at an annual rate of 1.5% in real terms; (vii) all costs and revenues are in 2017 prices, converted at an exchange rate of $1=Tk80.19; (viii) customs duty and value-added tax are included in project costs; and (ix) residual values of investments are based on the life of the investments using a straight-line depreciation method. 8. Weighted average cost of capital. The project funds include a loan from ADB’s ordinary capital resources and counterpart funds from the Government of Bangladesh. The loan will have a 25-year term, a grace period of 5 years, and an annual interest rate determined in accordance with ADB’s London interbank offered rate (LIBOR)-based lending facility. The cost of the government’s funds was based on recent auctions of 10-year Treasury Bond rates, with a risk premium of 7.0% based on the risk premium on lending charged by banks to the private sector in Bangladesh.5 The average local inflation is forecast at 6.3% and foreign inflation at 1.5%. The overall WACC of the project was estimated at 1.81% in real terms (Table 1). 3 ADB. 2005. Guidelines on the Financial Management and Analysis of Projects. Manila. 4 ADB. 2006. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Multitranche Financing Facility and Technical Assistance Grant to the People’s Republic of Bangladesh for the Railway Sector Investment Program. Manila. 5 International Monetary Fund. 2016. International Financial Statistics database. http://www.imf.org/en/Data (accessed 13 June 2017). 3 Table 1: Weighted Average Cost of Capital Item ADB (OCR) GOB Total A Amount ($million) 360.00 93.37 453.37 B Weighting (%) 79.40 20.60 100.00 C Nominal cost (%) 2.08 13.30 D Tax rate (%) 0.00 0.00 E Tax-adjusted nominal cost (%) [C x (1-D)] 2.08 13.30 F Inflation rate (%) 1.50 6.30 G Real Cost (%) [(1+E)/(1+F)-1)] 0.57 6.59 H Weighted component of WACC (%) [B x G] 0.45 1.36 Weighted Average Cost of Capital 1.81% ADB = Asian Development Bank; GOB = Government of Bangladesh; OCR = ordinary capital resources; WACC = weighted average cost of capital. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. 9. Financial analysis. Based on the incremental earnings and operational cost savings that would accrue to Bangladesh Railway as a result of the of the procurement of 40 locomotives and 1,125 luggage and freight wagons, the FIRR of the project was estimated to be 3.2% on an after- tax basis (Table 2). The FIRR is higher than the WACC of 1.81%, showing the project’s financial viability. Net cash flows of the project are summarized in Table 5. 10. Sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity tests were conducted to assess the financial viability of the project against adverse changes in costs or revenues. Sensitivity tests showed that the FIRR would be below the WACC in the case of a (i) 10% increase in costs, (ii) 10% decrease in benefits, (iii) 10% increase in costs and 10% decrease in benefits, and (iv) no annual tariff adjustment. The result highlighted the vulnerability to any adverse changes in costs and revenues on the financial viability of the project (Table 2), further reinforcing the need for strong government support in continuing the implementation of an annual tariff adjustment mechanism. Table 2: Financial Analysis Results FIRR NPV Switching Scenario (%) (Tk million) Value (%) Base Case 3.2 5,811 – (i) 10% increase in capital costs 2.5 2,994 20.6 (ii) 10% decrease in benefits (1.0) (9,867) 3.7 (iii) 10% increase in costs and 10% decrease in benefits (1.4) (12,685) 3.1 (iv) 20% decrease in fuel savings 2.9 4,392 81.9 (v) No tariff increase in real term (0.6) (7,142) 0.9 () = negative; FIRR = financial internal rate of return; NPV = net present value. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. 11. Financial sustainability. The analysis demonstrates that (i) excluding capital costs, the incremental revenues of the project remain higher than the incremental operating and maintenance costs (Table 4); and (ii) the project will contribute to improving the overall operating ratio of Bangladesh Railway gradually over the analysis period. The project will, therefore, contribute to the improvement of the overall financial sustainability of Bangladesh Railway.
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