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CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

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CEEMEA & Latam Daybook Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Periodical Date 18 October 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook Pascal Moura Mairead Smith Head of Research Equity Focus Wednesday, 18 October 2017 (+971) 4 4283-864 (+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected] [email protected] CEEMEA Companies Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers TARGET PRICE CHANGE (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg Naspers (Buy, TP ZAR3,552.00) - No easy choices Palm Hills PHDC EY 0.2 8.5 Naspers - New Tencent numbers & more DHERO but bigger holdco discount SODIC OCDI EY 0.9 5.7 Qatar Electricity & QEWS QD 49.4 4.2 LATAM Companies Ooredoo Group ORDS QD 23.7 4.2 RECOMMENDATION CHANGE Mechel MTL US 5.1 3.8 Transneft TRNFP RX 3258.4 3.8 Embraer (Hold, TP USD23.00) - Increasing competitive pressures - moving to Qatar National Bank QNBK QD 34.1 3.7 Hold Industries Qatar IQCD QD 26.1 3.7 Latam Airlines Sep Q 2017 Preview - Most profitable Sep Q in 7 years TMG Holding TMGH EY 0.5 3.6 Gulf Int'l Services GISS QD 5.1 3.1 COMPANY UPDATE Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg B2W (Hold, TP BRL16.50) - First take on B2W market expansion Orascom OC DU 7.3 -8.8 Vale (Buy, TP USD12.00) - 3Q17 Production Preview: Seasonal iron ore Mediclinic MDC LN 8.5 -5.1 improvement Mediclinic MEI SJ 8.5 -5.0 Pioneer PFG SJ 8.7 -4.7 SECTOR UPDATE Life HC LHC SJ 1.9 -4.6 AngloGold Ashanti ANG SJ 9.2 -4.6 Latam and CEEMEA Banks - Global valuation matrix – CEEMEA banks recover Harmony HAR SJ 1.7 -4.5 as Latam dips ING Bank Slaski ING PW 53.6 -4.5 Latin American Financials - 3Q17 preview: Brazil improves, but mixed trends in Mail.Ru MAIL LI 30.5 -3.8 Mexico and Andes Impala Platinum IMP SJ 2.3 -3.8 Integrated Oil/ Refining - 3Q Upstream: Inflection Points Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers Metals & Mining Alert - Daily prices and news: WSA raises 2017/18 global steel (LATAM) demand outlook Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg Kimberly-Clark de KIMBERA MM 1.8 5.2 LatAM TMT - 3Q17 Results Preview Cemex CX US 8.1 3.6 STRATEGY Liverpool LIVEPOLC MM 7.6 3.5 Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA MM 2.4 3.0 EM Daily - Argentina - Position for the upturn Chedraui CHDRAUIB 2.0 2.5 Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX* 1.7 2.5 MACRO America Movil AMX US 18.3 2.2 Special Report - Colombia: Cyclical external correction, independents lead Gruma GRUMAB MM 13.9 1.9 election campaign Bancolombia CIB US 44.1 1.4 Gentera GENTERA* 1.3 1.4 Special Report - BRL - Can flows pick up the baton from carry? Brazil Update - Services were weaker than expected in August Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg B2W BTOW3 BS 6.1 -6.0 Embraer ERJ US 20.3 -5.2 VALUATION Lojas Americanas LAME4 BZ 5.7 -3.7 CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables Arezzo&Co ARZZ3 BS 16.3 -3.6 Natura NATU3 BS 9.5 -3.1 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 12.0 -2.5 Porto Seguro PSSA3 BZ 11.9 -2.4 Vale VALE UN 10.3 -2.3 Santander Mexico BSMX US 9.1 -2.2 Smiles SMLE3 BZ 27.2 -2.1 Source::Bloomberg Finance LP ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London Distributed on: 18/10/2017 04:27:04 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 0bed7b6cf11c Page Lata & CEEMEA 2017 18 October 2 m Daybook Emerging EMEA/Latam Research Head of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864 Russia / CIS Latam George Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +971 4 361 1734 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342 Ivan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400 Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434 Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944 Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254 Grant Sporre Commodities +44 207 545 8170 Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786 Marcel Moraes Retail +55 11 2113 5976 Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063 Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949 Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 415 262 2028 Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528 South Africa Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528 Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355 Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191 Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664 Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185 John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524 Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605 Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640 Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568 Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191 Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Greece Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267 James Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735 Turkey Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732 Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 George Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +971 4 361 1734 George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118 Marc Hammoud Telco +971 4 4283910 Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774 Middle East Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261 Deutsche Bank AG/London CE3 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938 James Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786 Ivan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Tomasz Krukowski Consumer, O&G, Industrials +48 22 579 8732 Elina Ribakova Economist Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Source: Deutsche Bank 18 October 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook ASIAN MARKET TOP STORIES China Cement – Trip takeaways - the new order in China cement (Johnson Wan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/737-D9A9/68596178/cd520a6e-934a-4ff5-b2d4-54df923ebcdd_604.pdf INITIATION OF COVERAGE Bright Scholar (BEDU.N, Buy) – Seizing the golden age of China education sector; initiating with Buy (Alvin Jiang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/790-0A1E/70029847/0900b8c08db1524c.pdf RECOMMENDATION CHANGE GBST Holdings (GBT.AX, Buy) – Cheap and unloved. Upgrade to Buy. (Stuart McLachlan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/614-E385/63275861/0900b8c08d8de68f.pdf> Alliance Global (AGI.PS, Hold) – No longer compelling; downgrading to Hold (Aaron Salvador) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/671-861E/64519630/0900b8c08d90df18.pdf> ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES China Oil & Gas Monthly – Gas demand exceptionally strong; Sep ethylene spreads reach 10yr high (Johnson Wan) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/789-C3ED/65928490/89a76098-a8d5-11e7-a585-056cc5e4a602_604.pdf ANZ (ANZ.AX, Hold) – Partial progress in divesting wealth management (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/632-C71C/64914490/0900b8c08db0a31b.pdf> Challenger Financial (CGF.AX, Hold) – Improving distribution driving flows (Ross Curran) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/243-DE8D/64876733/c31df03c-044a-4982-b4c8-3943b48bb561_604.pdf Oil Search (OSH.AX, Buy) – SepQ17 Report - PNG LNG continues to outperform (John Hirjee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/863-08DC/63164821/0900b8c08daaef58.pdf> Pact Group (PGH.AX, Buy) – Earnings estimates and valuation revised on new FX assumptions (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/534-17A7/63165825/0900b8c08db0c434.pdf> St Barbara (SBM.AX, Buy) – 1Q18: Off to a flying start (Matthew Frydman) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/836-CF75/64824246/0900b8c08da3f9dd.pdf> ACC (ACC.BO, Hold) – Near-term growth priced in, outlook remains challenging (Amit Murarka) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/631-6248/65660433/0900b8c08db11e12.pdf> Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJA.NS, Hold) – 2QFY18 - operating beat driven by lower raw material costs (Amyn Pirani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/547-4AB0/66900822/89999843-b255-4748-b449-5b10e6a570d6_604.pdf Bajaj Finance (BJFN.NS, Hold) – 2Q FY18: growth stays strong; NIM tad lower; valuations stretched (Manish Karwa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/572-2EA2/63351530/0900b8c08daf97a3.pdf> Bajaj Finserv (BJFS.NS, Hold) – 2QFY18: strong operating performance; PAT growth slows (Manish Karwa) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/571-16C3/64401317/0900b8c08db0dae2.pdf> Wipro (WIPR.BO, Hold) – Sept-Q: Revenue miss; margins surprise positively - Hold (Aniruddha Bhosale) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/586-F9F3/68052047/0900b8c08db0cd0e.pdf DiGi (DSOM.KL, Sell) – 3QFY18 - Revenues continue to decline though margins remain robust (Srinivas Rao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/911-8584/64242421/0900b8c08db0efc2.pdf> MACRO/STRATEGY DBDaily – A quiet session, new Fed chair likely to be announced by 3 November… (Phil Odonaghoe)
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