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Tough Crowd: Small Launch Vehicles Seek Niche in Ultra-Competitive Market

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Tough Crowd: Small Launch Vehicles Seek Niche in Ultra-Competitive Market Tough crowd: Small launch vehicles seek niche in ultra-competitive market Date Posted: 13-Aug-2020 Author: Pat Host, Washington, DC Publication: Jane's International Defence Review More companies than ever are developing small launch vehicles, but must address market economics and an industry behemoth that could undercut them. Pat Host reports The small launch vehicle market, roughly defined as rockets carrying payloads of 250 kg or less, is as competitive as ever. About 100 companies are developing small rockets, and many started years ago to fulfill an expected demand for hundreds of launches per day of disaggregated low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. This market failed to develop. Janes analysis suggests the small launch market can support two to three, maybe four companies. In addition, industry behemoth Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX), is now offering rideshare opportunities on its Falcon 9 rocket at USD5,000 per kg. An industry executive, who was given anonymity to discuss market pricing, told Janes in May that this may be 10-times cheaper than custom launches being offered by existing small launch providers. The executive said the challenge facing small rocket developers is that large vehicles, such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9, can launch 50-times as many satellites as a small vehicle, while costing only five times as much to make the rocket. Planet, a satellite imagery provider, signed contracts for multiple launches of three 115 kg spacecraft at a time on Falcon 9 as a ride share. © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 1 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Expert analysis of how many companies the small launch market can sustain. (Janes) 1765706 At a rate of USD5,000 per kg, that is USD1.725 million or USD575,000 per spacecraft. Many small launch firms seek USD5–10 million per launch for similar missions. Small launch companies, the executive said, could be challenged to convince satellite operators to pay 10-times the cost of flying on a Falcon 9 rideshare or a future Blue Origin rocket. © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 2 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Still, small launch developers – such as Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, and Astra – are not cowed by SpaceX, nor small launch market economics. Developing a variety of rockets with different price points and payload capacities, these developers believe rapid launch volume and delivering bespoke launch solutions when customers need them, as opposed to having to wait for SpaceX to launch and to the right orbit destination, will keep them in business. Small launch companies are also getting a boost from the Pentagon, especially the US Air Force (USAF), which has suggested an increased demand for small launchers for national security. Companies like Astra that can launch with only a concrete pad and electricity are marketing themselves as providing the ability to launch with little notice, preventing adversaries from knowing which capability the Pentagon will launch and when. Relativity Space Relativity Space views additive manufacturing, or 3D printing, as essential to its future. Tim Ellis, CEO and co-founder, told Janes on 21 May that the company is targeting 95% 3D printed content for its Terran 1 medium-payload rockets, which would be everything other than the electronics and avionics. “Other companies were doing launch part-by-part, where individual pieces were 3D printed,” Ellis said. “We saw this opportunity to do a totally new aerospace value chain and build, top down, an entire rocket build on 3D printing.” © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 3 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. One of Relativity Space’s Stargate 3D printers. The company wants to fully build a rocket using 3D printing. (Relativity Space) 1768121 Relativity Space’s Terran 1 can carry a 1,250 kg payload to LEO. This is the largest of the small launch vehicles by a wide margin. The rocket can also carry 900 kg to a 500 km sun synchronous orbit (SSO) and 700 kg to a 1,200 km SSO. The company originally planned to develop a 150 kg launch vehicle, but after talking to customers it decided to build a larger rocket. The Terran 1 also has a 3 m payload fairing, which Ellis said is relatively large and closer in size to the fairings on the Indian government-subsidised Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and the Arianespace Vega launch vehicles. Ellis said Relativity Space in about the third quarter of 2019 decided to increase its payload fairing from 2 m to 3 m to potentially secure a customer. The company is developing its own 3D printer, Stargate, which Ellis called a large-scale metal robotic system. Relativity Space has roughly 150 personnel, about 33% of its total workforce, developing Stargate. © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 4 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Relativity Space’s Aeon 1 engine. (Relativity Space) 1768122 Relativity Space views 3D printing 95% of its rocket as a way to automate manufacturing, remove fixed tooling, and have a more software-defined factory. Ellis said the company is also looking to consolidate the part count of its rockets and is expecting to have 100-times fewer parts than a © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 5 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. traditional launch vehicle. Relativity Space expects the Terran 1 to be printed from a custom aluminium alloy that the company is developing. Relativity Space is also aiming for 10-times faster production through rapid manufacturing. The company wants to go from raw materials to a fully complete rocket in 60 days. The company has built what Ellis called the world’s first 3D printing factory for aerospace, which is a 11,148 m 2 facility in Long Beach, California. Relativity Space also has agreements with various US federal agencies to test equipment. The company has seven different engine and vehicle test stands at NASA Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, where it also controls 33% of the test infrastructure for the next 20 years via contract service-level agreements (CSLAs). Relativity Space is charging USD12 million per Terran 1 launch: 1,250 kg to LEO and 900 kg to 500 km SSO.
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