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Home , Astra (aerospace), Relativity Space, Rockets by Astra, Rocket Lab

Tough crowd: Small launch vehicles seek niche in ultra-competitive market

Date Posted: 13-Aug-2020

Author: Pat Host, Washington, DC

Publication: Jane's International Defence Review More companies than ever are developing small launch vehicles, but must address market economics and an industry behemoth that could undercut them. Pat Host reports

The small market, roughly defined as rockets carrying payloads of 250 kg or less, is as competitive as ever. About 100 companies are developing small rockets, and many started years ago to fulfill an expected demand for hundreds of launches per day of disaggregated low Earth (LEO) . This market failed to develop.

Janes analysis suggests the small launch market can support two to three, maybe four companies. In addition, industry behemoth Technologies Corp (SpaceX), is now offering rideshare opportunities on its rocket at USD5,000 per kg. An industry executive, who was given anonymity to discuss market pricing, told Janes in May that this may be 10-times cheaper than custom launches being offered by existing small launch providers.

The executive said the challenge facing small rocket developers is that large vehicles, such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9, can launch 50-times as many satellites as a small vehicle, while costing only five times as much to make the rocket. Planet, a imagery provider, signed contracts for multiple launches of three 115 kg at a time on Falcon 9 as a ride share.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 1 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Expert analysis of how many companies the small launch market can sustain. (Janes) 1765706

At a rate of USD5,000 per kg, that is USD1.725 million or USD575,000 per spacecraft. Many small launch firms seek USD5–10 million per launch for similar missions. Small launch companies, the executive said, could be challenged to convince satellite operators to pay 10-times the cost of flying on a Falcon 9 rideshare or a future rocket. © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 2 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Still, small launch developers – such as , , and – are not cowed by SpaceX, nor small launch market economics. Developing a variety of rockets with different price points and payload capacities, these developers believe rapid launch volume and delivering bespoke launch solutions when customers need them, as opposed to having to wait for SpaceX to launch and to the right orbit destination, will keep them in business.

Small launch companies are also getting a boost from the Pentagon, especially the US Air Force (USAF), which has suggested an increased demand for small launchers for national security. Companies like Astra that can launch with only a concrete pad and electricity are marketing themselves as providing the ability to launch with little notice, preventing adversaries from knowing which capability the Pentagon will launch and when.

Relativity Space

Relativity Space views additive manufacturing, or 3D printing, as essential to its future. Tim Ellis, CEO and co-founder, told Janes on 21 May that the company is targeting 95% 3D printed content for its Terran 1 medium-payload rockets, which would be everything other than the electronics and avionics.

“Other companies were doing launch part-by-part, where individual pieces were 3D printed,” Ellis said. “We saw this opportunity to do a totally new aerospace value chain and build, top down, an entire rocket build on 3D printing.”

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 3 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. One of Relativity Space’s Stargate 3D printers. The company wants to fully build a rocket using 3D printing. (Relativity Space) 1768121

Relativity Space’s Terran 1 can carry a 1,250 kg payload to LEO. This is the largest of the small launch vehicles by a wide margin. The rocket can also carry 900 kg to a 500 km sun synchronous orbit (SSO) and 700 kg to a 1,200 km SSO. The company originally planned to develop a 150 kg launch vehicle, but after talking to customers it decided to build a larger rocket.

The Terran 1 also has a 3 m , which Ellis said is relatively large and closer in size to the fairings on the Indian government-subsidised Polar (PSLV) and the launch vehicles. Ellis said Relativity Space in about the third quarter of 2019 decided to increase its payload fairing from 2 m to 3 m to potentially secure a customer.

The company is developing its own 3D printer, Stargate, which Ellis called a large-scale metal robotic system. Relativity Space has roughly 150 personnel, about 33% of its total workforce, developing Stargate.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 4 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Relativity Space’s Aeon 1 engine. (Relativity Space) 1768122

Relativity Space views 3D printing 95% of its rocket as a way to automate manufacturing, remove fixed tooling, and have a more software-defined factory. Ellis said the company is also looking to consolidate the part count of its rockets and is expecting to have 100-times fewer parts than a

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 5 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. traditional launch vehicle. Relativity Space expects the Terran 1 to be printed from a custom aluminium alloy that the company is developing.

Relativity Space is also aiming for 10-times faster production through rapid manufacturing. The company wants to go from raw materials to a fully complete rocket in 60 days.

The company has built what Ellis called the world’s first 3D printing factory for aerospace, which is a 11,148 m 2 facility in Long Beach, . Relativity Space also has agreements with various US federal agencies to test equipment. The company has seven different engine and vehicle test stands at NASA , Mississippi, where it also controls 33% of the test infrastructure for the next 20 years via contract service-level agreements (CSLAs).

Relativity Space is charging USD12 million per Terran 1 launch: 1,250 kg to LEO and 900 kg to 500 km SSO. Ellis believes the company’s price is less than the competition, and its rockets are larger, on a US dollar per cubic metre basis. Ellis said this is because Relativity Space was finding that customer payloads, especially in defence and government, at this size are not always mass limited. Sometimes, he said, they are volume limited, so even if a launch provider is less expensive at US dollars per kilogramme, having the larger fairing enables the Terran 1 to fit larger volume satellites.

Close up of Relativity Space’s Aeon 1 engine. (Relativity Space) 1768123

This, Ellis said, provides a differentiator from competition, including SpaceX and its USD5,000 per kg rideshare option.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 6 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Relativity Space is planning to first launch towards the end of 2021. The company has secured a variety of contracts to launch to different .

The company’s first contract was from Telesat to support its LEO constellation. Relativity Space also has a contract with rideshare provider Industries to integrate multiple small satellites on one of Relativity Space’s rockets. Relativity Space also secured a contract from Momentus in 2019 to launch up to 350 kg to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The company most recently signed a deal with satellite communications (satcom) provider for up to six dedicated launches to deploy Iridium’s ground spare satellites to LEO on Terran 1 no earlier than 2023.

“There are more in the works,” Ellis said. “We are actually seeing a lot of customer demand and, despite the rideshare opportunities available, we are not seeing that slowing down.”

Meanwhile, Relativity Space expects the Pentagon to become a large customer in the near future. Josh Brost, company vice-president of business development and government affairs, told Janes on 21 May that the US Department of Defense (DoD) is investing in small satellites to provide more resilient capabilities for operators. Examples include the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and its Blackjack programme, which aims to develop and demonstrate the critical elements for a global high-speed network in LEO that will provide the Pentagon with highly connected, resilient, and persistent coverage.

Another example, Brost said, is the Space Development Agency (SDA) desiring its own LEO constellation with multiple platforms, and the USAF looking for small satellites to provide more resilient architectures.

Relativity Space has raised USD185 million since 2016. The company has performed about 250 hot fire tests of its Aeon engine at NASA Stennis. Ellis said Relativity Space has built a full-scale second stage tank structure with common dome and has performed proof testing. This, he said, was to demonstrate that the company’s large-scale proprietary 3D printing technology can work for a rocket’s primary structure.

Relativity Space announced on 24 June that it had signed a right-of-entry agreement with the USAF to develop rocket launch facilities at Vandenberg Air Force Base (AFB), California. Ellis said in a statement that this would provide the company with affordable access to polar and SSOs. Relativity Space also has a launch site right-of-entry at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida.

Ellis believes that 3D printing an entire rocket will become the next big technological breakthrough in , based in part on his previous job experience at Blue Origin. He performed the first metal 3D printed parts for that company’s BE-4 liquefied natural gas (LNG) engine that is capable of 550,000 lbf.

3D printing an entire rocket is challenging for existing companies, Ellis said, because it would require them to throw away previous rocket designs and develop an entirely new factory with new tools and 3D printers. This is because legacy rockets, not designed with 3D printing in mind, look different to ones that are additively manufactured.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 7 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. “I really think 3D printing is the holy grail of aerospace automation and manufacturing,” Ellis said. “We have a big market opportunity where launch is still a limiting factor, despite the improvements with reusability. I think there needed to be a company that built this technology for the launch vehicle market and beyond.”

Astra launches

Astra believes launching multiple times per day is a market gap it can exploit. Chris Kemp, Astra CEO, told Janes on 19 May that the key to launch volume is being to launch from dozens of sites as opposed to just two, which is usually the case with launch providers that are dependent on fixed infrastructure. Astra needs only a concrete pad, a launch license, and a week’s notice. Astra prefers to be provided with an electrical supply, but has its own power generator, if necessary.

Astra is developing a rocket with a maximum payload capacity of 250 kg. The company is currently at 50 kg capacity and expects to reach 250 kg in 2023. Kemp said Astra is selling launches for USD2.5 million, which he expects will become less expensive as the company increases its volume. Astra is offering launch for 50–150 kg payloads to 500 km SSO orbit in 2020 and 2021.

Astra’s Rocket 3.0 on the at Pacific Complex-Alaska in February 2020. (Astra) 1768113

Astra expects to achieve its high-volume flight goal by designing utilitarian, affordable rockets that use an all-aluminium metallic, highly manufacturable design that can be produced mostly by machines. The company can lower the cost of its rocket to a few hundred thousand US dollars, which Kemp called a fraction of what a rocket made out of composite material would cost. “That will either translate into an either less expensive, or higher-margin, service that we will be able to offer,” he noted.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 8 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Astra’s Rocket 3.0 on the launch pad at Pacific Spaceport Complex-Alaska in February 2020. (Astra) 1768115

Kemp believes launch site flexibility and the ability to launch with minimal infrastructure also saves the money required to build and maintain traditional infrastructure. Being able to launch with minimal infrastructure enables Astra to work around weather, air traffic and licensing restrictions, and environmental constraints that affect fixed launch sites.

Similar to other small launch providers, Astra regards bespoke launches, where it can deliver at a specific time and to an exact location, as an advantage compared with SpaceX.

“The differences are when do you want to go and exactly where do you want to go,” Kemp said. “Everyone is not going to go where SpaceX is going on SpaceX’s schedule.”

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 9 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Astra’s Rocket 3.0 on the launch pad at Pacific Spaceport Complex-Alaska in February 2020. (Astra) 1768114

Kemp views Rocket Lab and eventually as his competitors. He claimed Astra’s pricing is 33% the price of a Rocket Lab mission. Astra’s business plan is to develop a rocket at a rate of one-per-day to achieve daily space delivery. Kemp said the company has raised more than USD100 million.

Astra is one of the few small rocket developers that has launched. The company launched in July and November 2018, both from Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska. Astra had another launch scheduled for mid-2020, but at the time of writing it was delayed to late August. Astra was selected as a finalist for DARPA’s Launch Challenge in 2019.

Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab, a small launch company, has said it has no desire to scale up and compete in a higher revenue pool against potential competitors such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and the PSLV. , Rocket Lab founder and CEO, told Janes on 14 May that this is because competing in the small launch realm can attract customers that want to start generating revenue on-orbit as soon as possible through custom launch missions. Eric Stallmer, Commercial Spaceflight Federation (CSF) president, told Janes on 12 June that companies looking to get to orbit and generate revenue immediately include Astranis, , and Loft Orbital.

“I think if you built a larger rocket, you would die quicker,” Beck said. “If you go much larger than the [Rocket Lab] Electron vehicle, then you, by definition, become a rideshare company …. There’s plenty of rideshare capability out there in the marketplace.”

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 10 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. © 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 11 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Rocket Lab’s new launch site located at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on Wallops Island, . (Rocket Lab) 1768111

Beck said this is why Rocket Lab has not been affected by SpaceX’s rideshare competition with the small launch providers. However, he does believe other small launchers on the larger end of the market could be in trouble.

According to Beck, rockets such as the Falcon 9 are too expensive for dedicated missions. Rocket Lab offers launches at USD7.5 million on average, depending on mission complexity, for payload weights between 150 and 225 kg. Electron will lift 320 kg to LEO for NASA’s Lunar mission. It can nominally lift 150 kg to 500 km SSO.

Electron launches are designed for customers who need to get to orbit in a reasonable timeframe and have specific requirements of their orbit. Beck said many Rocket Lab customers had bought rideshare missions, only to have given up when their missions were pushed out to six months or a year. Alternatively, they bought missions on rockets that are not flying and realised it would take longer than originally expected to get on orbit.

Rocket Lab’s Electron launch vehicle on the launch pad at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport. (Rocket Lab) 1768112

One such customer is Japanese satellite company Synspective. Rocket Lab announced on 14 April that it signed a deal with Synspective to launch a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on a dedicated mission in late 2020 from Rocket Lab’s launch site.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 12 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. Rocket Lab has several other projects in progress. Over the last 6–12 months the company has been developing its Photon bus family. Photon takes the pedigree of the Electron upper stage and incorporates high-power generation, high-accuracy attitude determination and control, enhanced propulsion, and radiation-tolerant avionics. Rocket Lab on 14 February announced it had won a NASA mission to the Moon with its Photon satellite platform scheduled for early 2021.

Artist’s illustration of Rocket Lab’s Photon small satellite. (Rocket Lab) 1768110

Rocket Lab has already launched 11 of its Photon satellites because they are essentially the Electron upper stage. Beck said the company has been playing with the upper stages in a satellite format.

Beck believes the next space industry sector that needs to be solved is small satellites, as it takes a team of experts around one to two years to build a satellite platform to get in orbit and generate revenue. Rocket Lab, he said, is using the Photon to reduce this timeline to get ideas on orbit in three months. The company is also working on a recovery effort for the Electron first stage.

Pentagon requirements

Will Roper, USAF assistant secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics (AT&L), is keen on the disruptive military capability of small launch and what it can bring the Pentagon. However, in early 2020, he was concerned about the state of the small launch industry.

Roper noted in May that expectations five years ago that thousands of LEO satellites would be selling a variety of services, including communications, did not pan out. This has led to a depressed US market for small satellites and launches, giving the Pentagon an opportunity to step in.

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Roper wants the US small launch industry to be healthy because of the disruptive military capability that launching satellites on demand could provide. This would prevent adversaries from knowing which type of spacecraft will be launched and when as they would not be able to observe it in the same way they would with satellites launched from fixed sites with typical long-term notice.

“It creates this wonderful question mark that an adversary would have to wrestle with and think about, but they cannot answer it until the conflict begins,” Roper said. “I think small launch is a disruptive capability that our nation needs.”

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 14 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. The USAF is continuing its small launch programme and in April awarded Vox Space, the Virgin Orbit subsidiary for Pentagon missions, a USD35 million contract to enable the company’s LauncherOne system to conduct missions from Guam. Roper said that small launch, at the time, was also a great candidate for Defense Production Act (DPA) Title 3 funding, so the service was ensuring that it would be represented in these discussions.

DPA Title 3 provides the US president with broad authority to ensure the timely availability of essential domestic industrial resources to support national defence and homeland security requirements through the use of highly tailored economic incentives. Specifically, the programme is designed to create, maintain, protect, expand, or restore domestic industrial base capabilities.

Roper believes the best way for the Pentagon to support the small launch market is to engage at the market level, rather than at the company level. It does this by competing a large number of launches to provide additional cash flow and stability.

One example, Roper said, is to have the USAF demand half the payload, leaving the other half available to small satellite companies at a lower rate than normal. This would provide a secondary stimulus to the small satellite industry, he said.

“This is important because if we show that the government is going to continue support of this emerging market, I expect that private investment will as well,” Roper said.

Roper believes these disaggregated LEO satellite constellations will eventually occur, but it will take another couple of years before the price points provide a positive business case and bring down the cost of launch. He estimates the small launch market will sustain no more than two or three companies.

While the Pentagon does not have any small launch competitions, the US ’s (USSF’s) Space and Missile Systems Center’s (SMC’s) launch enterprise has a strategy to support the small launch market. Colonel Robert Bongiovi, SMC Launch Enterprise director, told Janes on 21 May that the center expects to use the Orbital Services Program-4 (OSP-4) multiple-award, indefinite- delivery/indefinite-quantity (ID/IQ) contract vehicle to procure one launch every two years over the next nine years. He said the award to Vox Space was the first task award under the OSP-4 contract vehicle.

Although SMC expects to procure about 20 launches via OSP-4, Col Bongiovi expects most of these launches to be customer-funded. The agency is working on its next request for proposals (RFP) under OSP-4 and expects a contract to be awarded by the end of 2020.

Col Bongiovi said it is difficult to predict how much money SMC will spend on small launchers over the next five years because most of the Launch Enterprise’s small launches are customer- funded. The enterprise, he said, has budgeted to fund one small launch about every two years, but increases in spending would depend largely on the space vehicle demand. Col Bongiovi believes the Launch Enterprise is equipped to support the small space vehicle market should growth increase with multiple contracts in place to launch suborbital and orbital payloads.

Comment

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 15 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. An important opportunity for small launch companies is launching to orbits that are not typically accessed by rideshare, such as mid-inclination LEO in the 30–60° range or to medium Earth orbit (MEO). Todd Harrison, director of defence budget analysis and aerospace security project director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank in Washington, DC, told Janes on 30 June that there are plenty of rideshare opportunities to GEO, geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), a SSO, or even low-inclination LEO.

Another strategy for small launch companies, he said, may be to provide missions for satellite operators that have on-orbit failures and need only one or two satellites launched. An on-orbit failure is when a satellite fails in space and requires urgent replacing. Harrison said, in this instance, it may make sense to have a dedicated launch rather than waiting for rideshare.

Stallmer expects the small launch market will be large enough to support four companies and that the market would be crowded at five. Both Harrison and Stallmer believe how the US economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic will be a major factor in how large the small launch market can be.

Another factor, according to Stallmer, will be how the satellite industry rebounds and if people will need their services. A third factor, he added, is whether venture capital money will be available for small satellites and how larger rocket rideshare offerings affect the small launch providers.

Stallmer separates the small launch market into three tiers of providers. In the top tier are operational companies such as Rocket Lab and Virgin Orbit/Vox Space. In the second is Astra, which has launched, and companies that have yet to launch, including Relativity Space, Spin Launch, and Firefly. In his third category are companies that are in stealth mode and have technologies and plans but have yet to prove them.

Many companies may have aspirations to play in the small launch market, but Stallmer warned that potential entrants need to launch at least 10 times a year to be profitable.

© 2020 Jane’s Group UK Limited. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form Page 16 of 16 without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and Jane’s. Content reproduced or redistributed with Jane’s permission must display Jane’s legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, Jane’s shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein.