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COVID-19, Governance, and Conflict: Emerging Impacts and Future Evidence Needs

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COVID-19, Governance, and Conflict: Emerging Impacts and Future Evidence Needs Emerging Issues Report COVID-19, governance, and conflict: emerging impacts and future evidence needs Siân Herbert GSDRC/University of Birmingham Heather Marquette University of Birmingham March 2021 About this report The K4D Emerging Issues report series highlights research and emerging evidence to policymakers to help inform policies that are more resilient to the future. K4D staff researchers work with thematic experts and the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) to identify where new or emerging research can inform and influence policy. This report is based on desk-based research, mostly carried out from April 2020 to January 2021, with final additions made in March at the time of publication. K4D services are provided by a consortium of leading organisations working in international development, led by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), with the Education Development Trust, Itad, University of Leeds Nuffield Centre for International Health and Development, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM), University of Birmingham International Development Department (IDD) and the University of Manchester Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute (HCRI). For any enquiries, please contact [email protected]. Author bios Siân Herbert (corresponding author)1 is a Research Fellow at the Governance and Social Development Resource Centre (GSDRC) and K4D in the International Development Department at the University of Birmingham. Her work focuses on conflict and resilience analysis; gender; and the politics of aid, security, state- building and peacebuilding policies in fragile and conflict-affected states, and middle-income countries. Professor Heather Marquette is Professor of Development Politics in the International Development Department at the University of Birmingham where she also leads a research workstream on corruption and organised crime as part of the University’s Institute for Global Innovation. She is also Senior Research Fellow (Governance and Conflict) at FCDO. Heather’s research, which has been funded by the British Academy/Global Challenges Research Fund, DFID, DFAT and the EU, focuses on corruption and anti-corruption interventions, development politics, aid and foreign policy. She writes here in her capacity as Professor at the University of Birmingham. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Nic Cheeseman (University of Birmingham), Peter Evans (FCDO), Gareth Rannamets (FCDO), and Thomas Wheeler (FCDO), who provided advice and guidance on the development of this report and served as expert reviewers. The content of the report does not necessarily reflect the opinions of any of the experts consulted. We would also like to thank Barbara Cheney, who copyedited this report; Pius Gumisiriza (University of Birmingham), for assistance with formatting; and Alice Shaw (Institute of Development Studies) and Lewis Small (Institute of Development Studies), who provided editorial coordination and support. Suggested citation Herbert, S. & Marquette, H. (2021). COVID-19, governance, and conflict: emerging impacts and future evidence needs. K4D Emerging Issues Report 34. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies. DOI: 10.19088/K4D.2021.029 1 [email protected] Copyright This report was prepared for the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and its partners in support of pro-poor programmes. Except where otherwise stated, it is licensed for non-commercial purposes under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0. K4D cannot be held responsible for errors or any consequences arising from the use of information contained in this report. Any views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of FCDO, K4D or any other contributing organisation. © Crown copyright 2021. Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... i COVID-19, power, and legitimacy ............................................................................................ i COVID-19, effectiveness, capacity, and corruption ................................................................ iv COVID-19, violence, unrest, and conflict ................................................................................ v COVID-19, resilience, vulnerability, and risk ......................................................................... vii Overarching findings and the centrality of politics .................................................................. ix 1. The importance of leadership ............................................................................................. ix 2. Resilience and what “fixing the cracks” really means ......................................................... ix 3. Why better ways are needed to add up all the “noise” when it comes to COVID-19 and evidence .................................................................................................................................. x 1. Introduction and approach ................................................................................................ 11 2. COVID-19, power, and legitimacy ..................................................................................... 14 2.1 Historic pandemics, political settlements, and the role of the state ................................ 15 2.2 Trust ............................................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Disinformation ................................................................................................................ 24 2.4 Authoritarianism versus democracy ............................................................................... 27 2.5 Elections ........................................................................................................................ 32 2.6 Emergency politics ......................................................................................................... 33 2.7 Non-state actors ............................................................................................................. 36 2.8 Leadership ..................................................................................................................... 37 3. COVID-19, effectiveness, capacity, and corruption ........................................................ 39 3.1 COVID-19 impacts and policy effectiveness .................................................................. 40 3.2 Policymaking in complex, compound crises ................................................................... 43 3.3 COVID-19, fiscal constraints, and tax ............................................................................ 47 3.4 Corruption, kleptocracy, and accountability .................................................................... 50 4. COVID-19, violence, unrest, and conflict ......................................................................... 58 4.1 Sexual and gender-based violence ................................................................................ 59 4.2 Incidences of political violence and protest .................................................................... 62 4.3 Protests, social unrest, and violence by state forces ..................................................... 68 4.4 Armed conflict, social cohesion, and armed actors ........................................................ 73 4.4.1 Social cohesion ........................................................................................................... 76 4.4.2 Armed actors and peace processes ............................................................................ 78 4.5 Criminal violence and organised crime .......................................................................... 82 5. COVID-19, resilience, vulnerability, and risk ................................................................... 87 5.1 Vulnerable countries and resilience ............................................................................... 89 5.2 Vulnerable groups and resilience ................................................................................... 92 6. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 98 6.1 Leadership has made a big difference between policy success and failure so far ......... 98 6.2 The importance of a resilience lens for helping to “fix the cracks” ................................ 100 6.3 Why better ways are needed to add up all the “noise” when it comes to COVID-19 and evidence............................................................................................................................. 100 References ............................................................................................................................... 102 Appendix .................................................................................................................................. 139 COVID-19 trackers & resource hubs .................................................................................. 139 Executive Summary This paper reviews emerging evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on governance and conflict, using a “governance and conflict first” approach in contrast to other research and synthesis on COVID-19 in the social sciences that tends to be structured through a public health lens. It largely focuses on evidence on low- and middle-income
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