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Nok Airlines (NOK TB) Sell (From Buy) Transport - Aviation Target Price: THB9.86 Market Cap: Usd215m Price: THB11.50

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Nok Airlines (NOK TB) Sell (From Buy) Transport - Aviation Target Price: THB9.86 Market Cap: Usd215m Price: THB11.50 Results Review, 15 May 2015 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) Sell (from Buy) Transport - Aviation Target Price: THB9.86 Market Cap: USD215m Price: THB11.50 Macro Risks 2 Dragged by NokScoot Start-Up Growth . 2 0 Value . 02 0 . 02 0 Nok Air posted a surprise 21% YoY drop in core earnings on higher . Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 0 Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) costs overruns due to NokScoot, which has not commenced 0 19 111 operations. Downgrade to SELL with a THB9.86 TP (from THB16.00, 0 18 104 14% downside, 12x FY15F EPS). Its own 1Q15 earnings disappointed as 17 98 yields were still weaker YoY and non-fuel costs may have unlikely come down – prompting us to cut FY15F/FY16F earnings by 33%/20%. 16 91 15 84 Hit by startup costs on idle aircraft. Nok Airlines (Nok Air) recorded a 14 78 surprise 21% YoY drop in its core earnings (after stripping out THB29m 13 71 in forex translation losses and other minor non-recurring items) despite revenue growing 17% YoY. The results were disappointing considering 12 64 the low base 1Q14 earnings – battered by the political turmoil in 11 58 Thailand. Higher costs overruns were attributed to its two idle NokScoot 10 51 120 aircraft, which have yet to commence operations. 100 Delayed launching of NokScoot could prolong losses into 2Q15. 80 NokScoot’s (Nok Air’s long haul low cost carrier arm) delayed launch has 60 been postponed as a result of flight restrictions imposed by China, Japan 40 and South Korea, following International Civil Aviation Organisation 20 Vol Vol m (ICAO) audit checks revealing operational standards safety concerns in Thailand’s aviation sector. While Nok Air’s existing operations on three Jul-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Sep-14 Nov-14 May-14 routes to China were not impacted, NokScoot’s launch faces timeline uncertainty. We understand that to contain losses from aircraft being Source: Bloomberg idled, Nok Air will be wet leasing its two idle aircraft to its Singapore- based partner Scoot Airlines, which will then operate them under fifth Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 40.2m/1.23m freedom rights on the Thailand-Japan route. This wet leasing should Cons. Upside (%) 51.3 contain the losses going forward. We assume this will commence in Upside (%) -14.3 2H15, as our checks on Scoot’s ticketing website show the earliest dates 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 10.9 - 18.0 available on a Bangkok-Tokyo direct flight will be from this coming July. Free float (%) 30 Forecasts. Aside from the unexpected costs overruns from NokScoot, Share outstanding (m) 625 earnings from Nok Air itself disappointed. 1Q15 yields were weaker by Shareholders (%) 13% YoY, while non-fuel costs were also higher YoY due to higher Thai Airways International 39.2 aircraft lease and maintenance costs. This prompts us to cut earnings for FY15/FY16 by 33%/20% respectively. Siam Commercial Bank 3.4 Sarasin Patee 3.3 Downgrade to SELL (from Buy). We downgrade Nok Air to SELL premised at a lower 12x P/E (from 13x) on its FY15 EPS to derive a TP Share Performance (%) of THB9.86 (from THB16.00). We prefer Thai Airways International YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m (THAI TB, TRADING BUY; TP: THB19.70) in the Thai aviation space on its restructuring efforts, which have been on track thus far. Absolute (12.2) (2.6) (21.8) (3.4) (32.4) Relative (12.1) 0.8 (14.4) 1.7 (39.6) Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Total turnover (THBm) 8,218 11,180 12,160 16,851 19,672 Shariah compliant Reported net profit (THBm) 505 1,066 (472) 513 979 Recurring net profit (THBm) 748 1,063 (501) 513 979 Veena Naidu License No. 24418, 66 2862 9752 Recurring net profit growth (%) 278.2 42.2 (147.2) na 90.7 [email protected] Recurring EPS (THB) 1.50 1.70 (0.80) 0.82 1.57 DPS (THB) 1.10 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.47 Ahmad Maghfur Usman 603 9207 7654 Recurring P/E (x) 7.7 6.8 na 14.0 7.3 [email protected] P/B (x) 6.47 1.58 1.91 1.68 1.40 P/CF (x) 6.7 3.8 na 13.6 7.8 Dividend Yield (%) 9.6 9.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 1.9 na 12.8 3.1 Return on average equity (%) 59.9 39.3 (11.3) 12.7 20.8 Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (33.7) (4.2) See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 15 May 2015 Figure 1: Nok Air’s results review table (THBm) 1Q14 1Q15 YoY % chg Remarks Revenue 3,099.2 3,635.2 17.3 Driven by higher passengers handled Costs -3,076.4 -3,764.8 22.4 EBITDA 22.7 -129.6 -669.6 1Q15 dragged by NokScoot losses Depreciation and amortisation -12.7 -19.2 51.1 EBIT 10.1 -148.8 nm Interest expense 0.0 0.0 na Interest income 36.9 12.0 -67.5 Associate 0.0 0.0 na EI 3.3 -27.9 nm PBT 50.2 -164.7 nm Tax -9.3 0.1 nm MI 0.0 166.4 nm Minority interest relating to 49% stake in NokScoot PATAMI 40.9 1.8 -95.6 Core PATAMI 37.7 29.7 -21.1 YoY drop disappoints Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 15 May 2015 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Total turnover 8,218 11,180 12,160 16,851 19,672 Cost of sales (7,495) (10,257) (12,953) (16,588) (18,661) Gross profit 722 923 (793) 263 1,011 Operating profit 722 923 (793) 263 1,011 Operating EBITDA 773 974 (723) 331 1,089 Depreciation of fixed assets (38) (35) (42) (45) (50) Amortisation of intangible assets (12) (16) (28) (23) (27) Operating EBIT 722 923 (793) 263 1,011 Interest income 41 106 101 48 54 Interest expense - - (2) - - Exceptional income - net (243) 3 30 - - Pre-tax profit 520 1,033 (665) 311 1,065 Taxation (15) 33 (0) (78) (266) Minority interests - - 194 280 180 Profit after tax & minorities 505 1,066 (472) 513 979 Reported net profit 505 1,066 (472) 513 979 Recurring net profit 748 1,063 (501) 513 979 Source: Company data, RHB Cash flow (THBm) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Operating profit 722 923 (793) 263 1,011 Depreciation & amortisation 50 51 70 68 77 Other operating cash flow 121 945 (1,708) 275 102 Operating cash flow 894 1,918 (2,431) 607 1,190 Tax paid (39) (23) (11) (78) (266) Cash flow from operations 856 1,895 (2,443) 529 924 Capex (58) (63) (225) (80) (80) Other investing cash flow (322) (2,478) 2,943 141 203 Cash flow from investing activities (380) (2,541) 2,718 61 123 Proceeds from issue of shares - 3,250 - - - Other financing cash flow (414) (670) 458 - (147) Cash flow from financing activities (414) 2,580 458 - (147) Cash at beginning of period 185 246 2,193 2,927 3,516 Total cash generated 62 1,934 733 589 900 Forex effects (0) 12 - - - Implied cash at end of period 246 2,193 2,927 3,516 4,416 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 15 May 2015 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Total cash and equivalents 1,656 5,333 3,227 3,516 4,416 Inventories 4 11 17 27 85 Accounts receivable 30 73 86 62 73 Other current assets 408 606 1,854 2,389 2,588 Total current assets 2,098 6,024 5,184 5,994 7,162 Total investments 5 6 47 6 6 Tangible fixed assets 81 93 254 292 336 Intangible assets 34 54 46 72 75 Total other assets 35 95 1,037 1,037 1,037 Total non-current assets 155 248 1,385 1,407 1,454 Total assets 2,252 6,272 6,569 7,402 8,616 Accounts payable 420 413 543 721 818 Other current liabilities 851 1,160 1,445 1,570 1,825 Total current liabilities 1,271 1,572 1,989 2,291 2,643 Other liabilities 93 156 231 248 279 Total non-current liabilities 93 156 231 248 279 Total liabilities 1,364 1,728 2,220 2,539 2,922 Share capital 500 625 625 625 625 Retained earnings reserve 388 876 104 617 1,449 Other reserves - 3,042 3,042 3,042 3,042 Shareholders' equity 888 4,543 3,771 4,284 5,117 Minority interests - - 578 578 578 Total equity 888 4,543 4,349 4,863 5,695 Total liabilities & equity 2,252 6,272 6,569 7,402 8,616 Source: Company data, RHB Key Ratios (THB) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Revenue growth (%) 36.1 36.0 8.8 38.6 16.7 Operating profit growth (%) 180.9 27.8 (186.0) 0.0 284.4 Net profit growth (%) 152.6 111.2 (144.2) 0.0 90.7 EPS growth (%) 152.6 69.0 (144.2) 0.0 90.7 BVPS growth (%) 11.4 309.3 (17.0) 13.6 19.4 Operating margin (%) 8.8 8.3 (6.5) 1.6 5.1 Net profit margin (%) 6.1 9.5 (3.9) 3.0 5.0 Return on average assets (%) 23.7 25.0 (7.3) 7.3 12.2 Return on average equity (%) 59.9 39.3 (11.3) 12.7 20.8 Net debt to equity (%) (186.5) (117.4) (74.2) (72.3) (77.5) DPS 1.10 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.47 Recurrent cash flow per share 1.71 3.03 (3.91) 0.85 1.48 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 15 May 2015 SWOT Analysis Thailand is a popular tourism destination Earnings are susceptible to Favourable demographics volatility in jet Extensive booking and payment distribution channel fuel prices Fierce competition in the Thailand aviation landscape Room to increase gearing for aircraft acquisitions NokScoot joint-venture (JV) could lead to start-up losses over its first three years of operations P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE 200 5,000% 8.0 70% 180 4,450% 7.0 59% 160 3,900% 6.0 48% 140 3,350% 120 2,800% 5.0 36% 100 2,250% 4.0 25% 80 1,700% 3.0 14% 60 1,150% 2.0 3% 40 600% 20 50% 1.0 -9% 0 -500% 0.0 -20% Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB Company Profile Nok Airlines (Nok Air) is one of Thailand’s leading low-cost carriers with the most extensive domestic route coverage.
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