Number ofcouncillors LOCAL ELECTIONRESULTS her opponentsargue todosoduringthepandemicwouldbegrossly irresponsible. and hasalready carriedoutachaoticfront-bench reshuffle. facesinternal pressure tospell outtheexact path toa referendum, while people find “good employment” intheirlocalareas –apolicydirectly targeted at red wallvoters.Labourplansa“root andbranch” review of itspolicies This week,intheaftermath, eachpartywilllooktodriveitspolicyagendaforward. Tomorrow’s Queen’sSpeechwillreportedly includeplanstohelp the partyhadanoverallmajorityin2012(theyearUKGovernmentgave itsconsentfor onetobeheld). of “when,notif”asecondreferendum takes place;unionistsusethesamenumberstoargue that thecasefor areferendum isweaker nowthanwhen now helptomake upinHolyrood, andwhat itmeansfor thecountry’sfuture. TheSNPargue that theparliamentarynumbersmeanit’snowaquestion was justeffective enoughtodeprivethem).Much post-election attention has focused onthesolidpro-independence majoritytheeightGreen MSPs In Scotland,theSNPcameagonisinglyclosetomatching that feat, fallingoneseat shortof anoverallmajority(itappearstacticalvotingbyunionists blue). Theprolonged andscrappycoalition-buildingexercise somehadpredicted willbeavoided. with anotherparty. Theygainedseats andvoteshare andlargely heldontovulnerableareas inthenorth-east(Vale of Clwydwastheonlyseat toturn Wales wasLabour’sonlyreal successstory. Thepartywon50%of theseats intheWelsh Seneddandare settogovernwithoutanofficial arrangement chances. election asMetro Mayorof West Yorkshire willtriggeranother‘red wall’by-electionat whichtheConservatives willnowmore thanfancytheir had expected,withSadiqKhansurvivingalate scare towinwith55%of thevoteinsecondround. Meanwhile,Batley andSpenMPTracy Brabin’s the Tories, butfailedtowininthehard-fought West MidlandsorTees Valley contests.Theresult inLondonwasmuchcloserthanalmostanyone The 13Englishmayoralresults were more of amixed bag.Labourseized theCambridgeshire &Peterborough andWest of Englandmayoraltiesfrom isaplacethat votedfor Brexit…we gotBrexitbeen achieved:“This done.” times duringthecampaignandtravelled there againonFriday to celebrate theresult, offered asimpleanalysis of howthat political realignment had the Conservative victory–a16%swingfrom Labour–wasunprecedented inapost-warby-election.ThePrimeMinister, whovisitedHartlepoolthree Nowhere wasthismore apparent thaninHartlepool,where theearlyby-electionresult setthetonefor what wastocomeacross England.Thescaleof cut through asthe‘crumbling red wall’narrative solidified. councillors from zero to20. MinorLabourvictoriesinareas like Cambridgeshire, where theConservatives lostcontrol of thecountycouncil,failedto hardly traditionalTory-voting areas –isremarkable. InRotherham,where Labourclungontopower, theConservatives increased theirnumberof of 13more councils.Governingpartiesalmostalwaysperform badlyinmid-termlocals.To winthelikes of Dudley, PendleandNorthumberland– The localelectionswhichtookplaceinEnglandwere byandlarge amajorsuccessfor theConservatives, whogained235councillorsandtookcontrol between thedifferent nations, aswellbetweenurbanareas, townsandthecountryside. restrictions. Thepicture that hasemerged isoneof aUnitedKingdomthat remains strongly divided,withthemainparties’fortunes varyingwildly The dusthasnowsettledafter aweekend where theresults of lastweek’selectionsdrippedthrough slowlyoverseveraldays,heldupbyCovid EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE|105VICTORIA STREET|SW1e 6QTLondon|www.edelman.co.uk |020 30472177|@edelmanuk ELECTIONS 2021:ANATIONDIVIDED 2,345 CON

GREEN +235 151 but LabourholdsfirminWales andSNPclaimsmandate forindyref2 +88 1,345 LAB -326 Tories sweepupcouncilseats across England, OTHER 306 -6 LIB DEM 586 +7 Number ofseats SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT Lab Con SNP 22 64 31 ( (-2) (+1) +/- 0) TOTAL 129 Lib Dem4 Green 8

(+2) (-1) WELSH PARLIAMENT Number ofseats Con Lab 30 16 (+5) ( +1) TOTAL 60 Lib Dem1 13 ( +/- 0) (+1) 1 ELECTIONSELECTIONS 2021: 2021: A ANATION NATION DIVIDED DIVIDED ||MAY May 2021 2021 for decadestocome. do. Hissuccessindoingsocoulddefinethe fortunes of theLabourParty recent years–somethinglastweek’sresults showedtheyare failingto have aconversation withthepeoplewho’vestoppedvotingLabourin Policies willhelp.ButfirstheandhisShadowCabinetneedtobeable their problems rather thanseeingStarmer astheroute toabetterfuture. working classvoters.Long-standingLabourvotersblamethepartyfor an identitycrisis,nolongerabletorely onthesupportof acore of that findsitself at oddswiththeshiftingsands of Britishpolitics;facing The challengefacingStarmer isstark.Shortof authority, heleadsaparty process. believe), itcreated abacklashthat dominated –andderailedtheentire national campaignsco-ordinator (ormoved,dependingonwhoyou that DeputyLeaderAngelaRaynerwastobesacked aspartychairand left Starmer facingevenmore criticism.Asnewsbroke onSaturday mark thestartof newbeginnings.However, thehandlingof theprocess to reshuffle histopteam,seekingtodrawalineunderthelastweekand Labour Party. Itwasnosurprisethat theLabourleadermovedsoquickly This thenbegsthequestionof “what next”for SirKeir Starmer andthe past wouldhave beenelectorallyuntouchable. for change,promising investmentandregeneration toareas whichin the more thanadecadecontinuestosuccessfullypromote itselfasavehicle effectiveness of itsbroader message.Apartythat hasbeen inpower for the Conservative’s triumphinHartlepoolmustalsobeattributed tothe Mortimer parachutedinwithseeminglylittleknowledgeof thelocalarea, At thelastGeneralElectionhowever, withConservative candidate Jill People’s Vote campaignwholostthenearbyseat of Stockton South). bounce”, andLabour’scandidate PaulWilliams(amajorplayerinthe the victorytocollapseof theBrexit Party, thesocalled“vaccine- has wonaseat inaby-electionthepast50years.Manywillascribe 1974 andtheConservative gainisonlythethird timeagoverningparty The seat hadbeenrepresented byLabourMPssinceitscreation in damning evidenceof Labour’sfailure toconnectworkingclassvoters. Labour totheConservatives willleadmanytoseetheresult asfurther night iftheConservatives managedtowintheseat. The16%swingfrom The Hartlepoolby-electionwasalwaysgoingtobethescalpof the What itmeansforlabour EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE|105VICTORIA STREET|SW1e 6QTLondon|www.edelman.co.uk |020 30472177|@edelmanuk there isnotaparliamentary mandate for independenceisthin,ifnot independence is split50/50. Ofcourse,theoretically theargument that campaign wasa failure – underlinedbythefactpublicopinion on for theSNP, andgivestheUKGovernmentsomeroom tosaytheir Politically, thelackof anoutrightmajorityispsychologicallydamaging explicitly sayingtheywouldcallfor anotherreferendum. majority for independence, asbothpartieswentintotheelection argue that this,alongsidetheGreen’s eightseats, gives aparliamentary system, butcruciallymissingoutonanoutrightmajoritybyone.The SNP who have beeningovernmentfor 14 yearsunderaproportional voting consecutive term,winning64of the129seats –incredible for aparty A thumpingresult for theSNPseesthemreturned for afourth which couldseeScotlandgoeitherwayintheyearsahead. truth islittlehaschanged–weremain inaconstitutionalnoman’sland, mandate totheirrespective positionsonthefuture of theUnion, Whilst boththeunionistandnationalist sidessaytheresults givea opposite. of votersof HartlepoolseeinthePrimeMinister, mostScotsseethe surrounding thePM’s brandnorthof theborder. What themajority would helpgettheSNPvoteout–anacknowledgmentof thetoxicity Conservatives hadpleadedwithBorisJohnsonnottovisitfor fear it have beenunthinkable from anyof hispredecessors. TheScottish Minister, astaggering‘noshow’which,despitethepandemic,would One conspicuousomissionfrom theitinerarywasavisitfrom thePrime constitutional wrangling. we have cometoexpectfrom suchevents:division,grievanceand The Scottishparliamentarycampaigncontainedalmosteverything the story inscotland be “radical”and“ambitious”. Timewilltellifhelives uptothispromise. helped theparty retain power, andthat hisWelsh Government would Drakeford declared that Labour’sresponse totheCovid-19 pandemic (46.3%) at thefirstSeneddelectionin1999. ’s history(46.6%). Thiswasjustslightlyhigherthantherecord Covid-19 pandemic,turnoutfor theelectionwashighestin Despite fears that turnout wouldbeexceptionally lowduetothe Senedd for thefirsttime. and 26women.19of the60MSs,justunderathird, are servinginthe Assembly PartyandReform UK.ThenewSeneddfeatures 34men were nowinsfor smallerparties,includingUKIP, AbolishtheWelsh new LiberalDemocrat leaderJaneDoddswonaregional seat. There and Radnorshire, heldbyretiring former leaderKirstyWilliams,butthe The LiberalDemocrats losttheironlyconstituencyseat of Brecon in RhonddatoLabour, bringinganendtoher18-yearSenedd stay. 2016 result. However, former PartyLeaderLeanneWood lost herseat Plaid Cymru cameinthird with13seats, gainingoneseat ontheir Conservative inthe2019GeneralElection,remained red. Liberal Democrats, butClwydSouthandWrexham, whichbothvoted the firsttimein22yearsandtookBrecon andRadnorshire from the 16 seats. TheConservatives tooktheVale of Clywdfrom Labourfor Meanwhile, theConservatives hadtheirbestSeneddelectionsecuring pass budgets. deals withtheLiberalDemocrats andPlaidCymru at variouspointsto Welsh Governmentruledinaminorityfrom 2011to2016, securing pass lawsandgetLabour’sspendingplansthrough theSenedd.The That said,Drakeford mayneedsupportfrom theoppositionpartiesto minority eversincedevolutionin1999. as thepartyhasbeeninpowerWales eitherincoalitionorasa government withoutthehelpfrom otherparties.Thisisnotunusual seat shortof anoutrightmajority, Welsh Labourare lookingtoform a Labour won30of the60seats intheWelsh election.Althoughone willretain powerastheFirstMinisterof Wales after the story inwales education, theNHS, jobs–theyhave sometimetowait. Scotland’s politicalagendareturn todomesticmatters –like One thingweknowfor sure, for thepeopledesperate tosee . a grassroots wantingtocharge aheadnow. Thewaitinggamesuits for thepollstoswitchinherfavour, butshealsoneedstoplacate balancing actaheadandtimingwillbeeverything.Sheneedstowait Government inrecent years.ForNicolaSturgeon, shehasadifficult seems unlikely. Judgeshave beenathorninthesideof theUK doubt ontheconstitutionbeingareserved matter whilethisoutcome So toomayapotentialSupreme Courtcase,ifitwere toshedany recruiting sergeant for independence. from thePMtoallowareferendum couldbecomethegreatest will becomeareal problem for BorisJohnson.Continuedrefusal stick at 55%+andcanstaythere for awhile,theSNP/Green majority year untilthevaccineroll out.Ifsupportfor independencestartsto becomes sustained.Itlooked like thingswere headedthat waylast for independenceinScotlandstartstobuildandthelevelof support Where itmaygettrickyfor No10inthemonthsahead isifamajority we canexpecttheUKGovernmenttopushonthat point. for independencenowissignificantlyworsethanitwasin2014, so several years.It’simportanttootoremember that theeconomiccase economy. It’sperfectly conceivablethat that positioncouldholdfor focus shouldbeonrecovering from thepandemicandrebuilding the begin with,thisisnotthetimetobetalkingaboutconstitution,all What weknowfor certainistheUKGovernmentwillsay, politelyto Brexit, itisinconceivabletothinkwouldn’thave taken place. majority of partieswhohadcommittedtoasecondreferendum on absurd. If, for example,the2019GeneralElectionhadreturned a 2 ELECTIONS 2021: A NATION DIVIDED|MAY 2021 EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE|105VICTORIA STREET|SW1e 6QTLondon|www.edelman.co.uk |020 30472177|@edelmanuk and voted Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat. and votedConservative, LabourorLiberalDemocrat. support independence andvotedSNPorGreen, andthose whodon’t Voters, however, findsthemselvesmore evenlysplitbetweenthosewho numbers that scream ‘indyref2’. 64 seats for theSNP, and8for theGreens. ForSturgeon theseare the Scotland, where there isnowanumerical majorityfor independence- One placehewon’tbeseencampaigning anytimesoonhoweveris standout campaignerof hisgeneration –whichhelps. said, “Pause over, onyougoBoris.”Oh,andhealsohappenstobethe Now, withthevaccineworking,votersacross England have effectively by buildingbackbetter, onlyfor thepandemictoputpoliticsonpause. ever since.Winningbigin2019. DeliveringBrexit. Promising tolevelup base felt leftbehindandignored. He’sbeentappingintothat discontent bloke. Backin2016herecognised something Labourdidn’t–that its Labour strongholds, where heisviewedasin-touch,oneof us,adecent Johnson hascomprehensively mastered thelanguageof theseformer cares aboutmywallpaperorwhat Ididordidn’tsay. Andsoitproved. swirled around himrecently Johnsoneffectively told reporters nobody make himseemmore humantomanyvoters.Asthoseluridallegations And of coursethere’s Boris.Theonepoliticianwhosevicesactually undoubtedly helpedinHartlepool. whopping re-election asTory mayorof theneighbouringTees Valley Then there’s thepopularneighbournextdoor. BenHouchen’s always likely toendupturningblue. a Brexit town.AmassiveBrexit Partyvoteinthelastgeneralelectionwas It maytraditionallyhave beenaLabourtown,butaboveallHartlepoolis of thethree Bs-Brexit, Ben,andBoris. At thispointsomeperspectivemightbehelpful.Take Hartlepool.Acase into Labour’soldindustrialnorthernheartlands,theso-calledRedWall. England andthecommuterbelt,theycontinuedtomake inroads For now, for theTories, there iselation. Theycomfortably heldrural one more exampleof that. opposition, andwithmanyof ushaving beensuccessfullyjabbed,isjust election inthelastembersof apandemic,againstnewleaderof the has enjoyedaconsiderablesliceof luckwhenitcomestoboth.An But thentimingandyouropponentsare everythinginpolitics.ThisPM mistake wasunderthemicroscope? Maybe.Maybenot. Tories at theheightof thepandemic,wheneverydecision,delay, and significant councilvictoriesacross Englandhave beenpossible for the Ask yourself, wouldthecapture of Hartlepool,andaraft of more have benefitedfrom timing,luck,andhugemediaexposure. Drakeford’s LabourinWales. NicolaSturgeon’s SNPinScotland.Allthree all therunningintheseelections.Johnson’sTories inEngland.Mark vaccine rollout itisthegoverningpartyineachnation that hasdone The oneword that links allthis?Governing.Inthemiddleof asuccessful Wales. TheSNPisthedominantforce inScotland. Tory outsidethebigcities.Labourispartyof thosebigcitiesandof demography of Britishpoliticscontinuestoshift.Englandisnowlargely week toweek.What iscertainafter theseelectionsisthat the and farlesscertainthanthediametricheadlinesonourfront pages In politicsthetruthisalwaysof coursemore complex,more nuanced, Minister overallegations of sleaze andcorruption. Starmer bycontrastwasat hisforensic bestashegrilledthePrime and competence.Theveracityof hiseveryutteranceappeared indoubt. opposite. BackthenitwasJohnsonwhoontheropes overtrust And yetamere tendaysagoyou’dbeforgiven for thinkingtheexact his partyontheverge of yearsinthewilderness. Johnson seeminglyheadedfor adecadeinpower, andKeir Starmer and thinking theUK’spoliticaldyehasbeencastfor ageneration, withBoris Glance at thisweekend’s mediacoverageandyou’dbeforgiven for ANALYSIS: UK’S POLITICALSTRUCTURECONTINUESTOSHIFT might justdecidetrustandcompetence domatter after all. – especially thosewhohave lentyoutheir votesfor theveryfirsttime questions of competence.Fail todeliverhowever, andvoters– your promises voterstendtoforgive questionsof trustanddismiss Why doesanyof thismatter? Becausewhilstyouare deliveringon about thef***advisors.” minister lamentedtomerecently “twoyearsinpowerandstillit’s all effect itcontinuestohave onhisabilitytodecideanddeliver. Asone senior Tories fret aboutJohnson’s abilitytomanageallthis,andthe infighting, powerstruggles,backstabbing, andbriefingwars.Privately, From theverystartJohnson’sNumber10hasbeenahotbedof is goingonbehindthat blackdoor. manoeuvrings of ambitiousMinisters.Andovertheissueof justwhat Westminster. Overhistroublesome backbenchers.Overthe decision making.Overhislackof agenuinesupportbasein Finally, there are thedoubtsandconcerns.OverJohnson’s elections No10announcedthecreation of adeliveryunit. That’s presumably why, albeitbelatedly, heisacting.Justbefore the strategist. Campaigninganddeliveringare verydifferent beasts. He maybeamightycampaigner, butthePrimeMinisterisnota what itmightentail. Neither doweknowquitewhat levellingupreally looks like orindeed deliver onthesepromises, andevenlessabouthowwewillpayfor it. green energy. Even nowweknowremarkably littleabouttheplanto social care toinvestmentininfrastructure, housing,schools,and about everyonepre-pandemic –oneverythingfrom theNHSand Then there’s theraft of manifesto promises Johnsonmadetojust something more serious,there maybetrouble ahead. sleaze, andifwhat comesoutof No10isn’tseenasbenignspin,but pandemic. Itmaybedamning.seemsthere’s more tocomeon At somepointthere willbeapublicinquiryintothehandlingof the look quitesoappetising. project theJohnsonian‘biggovernmentbigspend’offering may not to fundthat longpromised railwayline,hospital,orinfrastructure When furloughends,unemploymentrises,ortheTreasury can’tafford And what of Johnson?Here I’d urge caution,andareality check. matter betweennowandthenextGeneralElection. change. ForLabouritisthedirection of that changethat willreally Wall. Today that nirvanalooks milesaway. Undoubtedlythere willbe Blair –wonfrom abasethat already includedScotlandandtheRed Labour’s onlyelectionwinningleaderof thelastforty years–Tony Starmer isof courserebuilding from anhistoriclow. Buthewillknow what Starmer’s Labourstandsfor. the party’soncesolidnorthernworking-classbase,don’tyetknow have aproblem. Hehasbeenlargely invisible.Voters, andmuchof proved for Starmer duringthepandemic.HeandLabourundoubtedly kindness compared tobeingleaderof theopposition.Andsoithas What thenof Labour?Churchill famouslysaidbeingshotwasa headache goingforward mightwellbeconstitutional. another term,anditisn’thard toseewhythePM’s biggestpolitical and eventsinWales where Labourwillcontinuetogovernfor yet Add Brexit uncertainty, rows overcustomschecks inNorthernIreland, premiership. the UnitedKingdom,andbyextensiontolongevityof Johnson’s But make nomistake, itrepresents thebiggestthreat tothefuture of and thePrimeMinister. Shewantsit.Heisimplacablyopposedto That meansanyreferendum isahugeriskfor boththeFirstMinister years. communications director, andchiefadvisorfor many journalist hewasBorisJohnson’sspokesman, communications across EMEA.Aformer political Will Walden isEdelman’sseniorcounsel for strategic 3 ELECTIONS 2021: A NATION DIVIDED|MAY 2021 policy debates andachievebetteroutcomes. policy insightandnetworktohelp clientsinform public public affairs teamusesitscampaigning experience, understanding of howtodrivetrust,our advocacyand day logisticalsupport.Drawingon Edelman’sunparalleled counsel, intelligenceledmonitoring andreliable day-to- party expertise.We offer thehighestquality of strategic and peoplewithdeepNGO, business andpolitical parliamentary aidesfrom across thepoliticalspectrum recruited from arangeof backgrounds including Edelman’s UKadvocacyandpublicaffairs teamare Advocacy andpublicaffairs results at thepaceyouneed. be anextensionof yourteam,helpingdeliverconcrete to maintainclientrelationships that spandecades.We will around anysituation. Thiswayof workinghasallowedus have theexpertsyouneedtohandlecommunications challenges andopportunities,developnewideas you witharobust, integrated pointof viewonthe communications andtheCity. Thisallowsustoprovide people withextensiveexperiencefrom politics,corporate We create specialistteamsfor ourclientswhichintegrate recently namedPRWeek UK’sAgencyof theDecade. and 5of thetop20BusinessSuperbrands.Edelmanwas the top3of ManagementToday’s MostAdmired companies companies andGlobalFortune500companies,including 500 consultants,deliveringprogrammes for FTSE100 is anintegrated communications agencywithover and 67wholly-ownedoffices. EdelmaninLondon independently owned,withmore than5,000 employees Edelman istheworld’slargest publicrelations agency, ABOUT EDELMAN Public Affairs Advocacy and EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE|105VICTORIA STREET|SW1e 6QTLondon|www.edelman.co.uk |020 30472177|@edelmanuk Associate Director Ailsa Nicol Cabinet Minister Former MPandShadow Public Affairs Advocacy and Managing Director, Luciana Berger

ANALYSIS FROM [email protected] Account Director Abigail Smith counsel toBorisJohnson Communications andchief Former Director of communications counsel for strategic Edelman EMEAsenior Will Walden Luciana Berger contact Senior Account Manager Elliot Langley Special Adviser Former Number10 Associate Director Ross Reid 4 ELECTIONS 2021: A NATION DIVIDED|MAY 2021