‹ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK ‹ RESEAU DE SYSTEME D’ALERTE PRECOCE CONTRE LA FAMINE BAMAKO S/C USAID BP 34 MALI

MALI MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY REPORT

April 23, 2004

SUMMARY: Optimistic food security outlook for 2004

The outlook on national household food security for 2004 is promising. The final food security assessment distinguishes between households in good condition from a food security standpoint and those at risk of facing economic problems. The exceptionally good harvests for the 2003/04 growing season, satisfactory conditions in livestock-raising areas and promising trends on grain markets should enable most of the population to get through this year’s lean period without experiencing any major food insecurity problems.

Households expected to face economic problems are confined to and Districts in the country’s Seventh Region in the far north. These households are looking at a plunge in their farm income due to losses of rice crops with the bursting of dikes and bunds in paddy fields and the flooding of rice seedlings. However, the food security of this group is not expected to deteriorate that much before the beginning of the 2004/05 harvest season (in November and December). They should certainly be able to take advantage of this year’s exceptionally good conditions at both the national and sub regional levels (good availability and prices for grain, livestock and fish, income from horticulture, remittances, community assistance, etc.) However, this cyclical problem, which occurs every two years, if not more often, has prompted a series of recommendations including the construction or rehabilitation of irrigation works in these districts, school meal programs to improve food access for schoolchildren in Bourem District and crop protection measures for the 2004/05 growing season, after the previous growing season (2003/04) ended with grain-eating birds and desert locusts threatening crops in many parts of the country.

A combination of price support measures (procurements designed to accelerate demand, trade promotion with third-party countries, slowing grain marketing activities, etc.) has propped up prices on grain markets over the last few months, prevented a free fall in prices and boosted price levels, particularly for farm-gate prices, which began falling with last year’s October and November harvests. As a result, current price levels are affordable for consumers but not too low for the producers.

For the marketing year in progress (November 2003 - October 2004), all signs point to a continuation of current trends in both consumer and farm-gate prices for millet which, while slowly rising, are expected to remain well below price levels for the three past years and the average for the last five years.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. USAID/FEWS NET B.P.34 Bamako, Mali Tel: (223)2 29-94-60 Fax: (223) 229-94-60 [email protected]

Monthly food security report for Mali: April 23, 2004 2

I. POSITIVE HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY IN 2004

The final food security assessment for 2004 by the country’s Early Warning System (SAP), based on an in-depth analysis of the coping strategies of different population groups, puts all communes north of the Fourteen Parallel monitored by the SAP in one of two food security risk categories, namely “satisfactory or status quo” and “at risk of facing economic problems”.

Harvests for the 2003/04 growing season are more than adequate and, with very few exceptions, the population should make it through this year’s lean period without experiencing any major food insecurity.

Households expected to face economic problems are confined to Gao and Bourem Districts in the country’s Seventh Region in the far north. This year, the following communes fall into this risk group:

Region Districts Communes

Bourem Bourem Bamba Gao Téméra Gao Soni Aliber

Despite the expected plunge in farm income with the flooding of virtually all rice seedlings as, once again, the unlucky juxtaposition of a normal pattern of rainfall and high water levels along the Niger River burst dikes and bunds in area paddy fields, food security in the communes listed above should not deteriorate that much before the beginning of the 2004/05 harvest season. They should certainly be able to take advantage of this year’s exceptionally good conditions at both the national and sub regional levels (good availability and prices for grain, livestock and fish, income from horticulture, remittances, community assistance, etc.)

However, this cyclical problem, which occurs every two years if not more often and always from the same causes, results in a total crop failure or sharp drop in rice production under free-flooding systems in this fringe area of the Niger River and needs to be solved once and for all.

II. RECOMMENDED MEASURES DESIGNED TO HELP HOUSEHOLDS FACING FOOD INSECURITY PROBLEMS DURING THE COURSE OF THIS YEAR

To assist communities in Gao and Bourem Districts facing economic difficulty, it is recommended that the government and its development partners construct and/or repair local irrigation works in the following villages, based on proper feasibility studies:

Rapport Mensuel sur la Sécurité Alimentaire au Mali : le 23 avril 2004 3

Gao District : • : Baouyé, Magnadoué and Hamakouladji polders; • Gounzoureye: Gorom-Gorom and Thirissoro polders. Bourem District: • Bamba: Eguedech and Kermachoué polders; • Téméra: Téméra polder; • Bourem: Kankoura polders (1-2 and 3), Bourem Foghas polders (extension) and Baria polders (1-2-3 and 4). • Taboye: Ha polders (1-2-3-4 and 5), Tondibi polders (1-2-3 and 4).

It is recommended that only local villagers be used as unskilled labor for these works and that they be paid for their labor in kind, under a “food for work” arrangement as a way to improve grain access in local communities.

It is also recommended that the World Food Program (WFP) strengthen its school meal programs in Bourem District for the 2003/04 school year to improve food access for local schoolchildren.

Moreover, the 2003/04 growing season ended with grain-eating birds and desert locusts threatening crops in numerous locations throughout all farming areas of the country. Looking ahead to the 2004/05 growing season, it is recommended that the government and its development partners take appropriate steps to protect crops by establishing efficient pest management mechanisms to control crop predators before they cause any damage.

III. CONSUMER AND FARM-GATE PRICES FOR GRAIN MAINTAINED AT ACCEPTABLE LEVELS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF MEASURES

The Malian Agricultural Products Office (OPAM) has nearly completed its procurement of 21,000 MT of grain to replenish the National Security Stock (SNS) with solicitations of price offers for purchasing 15, 000 MT of millet and sorghum.

The World Food Program also made a number of procurements between October 2003 and March 2004, seeking to purchase over 10,000 MT of millet and sorghum for its own future operations, particularly food for work and school meal programs, some of which are still in progress.

A new 2.65 billion CFA franc line of credit was established at the National Agricultural Development Bank (BNDA), with 1 billion CFA francs earmarked for farmer associations and 1.65 billion CFA francs for grain traders to help step up buying and selling and build up grain inventories. As of mid-February, the BNDA had already released 957 million CFA francs to farmer associations, or 95.7 percent of their share, while grain traders had used only 655 million CFA francs, or 39.7 percent of their quota. Procurement operations designed to replenish government, NGO and grain bank inventories are also ending.

In an effort to promote grain trade and exports to neighboring countries such as Mauritania, Ivory Coast and Senegal, the Ministry of the Interior and Local Government has lifted all administrative measures suspending grain exports imposed back in November of 2002 in the wake of the grain deficit created by poor harvests for the 2002/03 growing season.

Monthly food security report for Mali: April 23, 2004 4

According to the General Management of the Malian Textile Development Corporation (CMDT), as of February 29, the company had paid out the sum of 54,061 billion CFAF to cotton planters for 270,340 MT of cotton, or 44 percent of the 612,537 MT harvested and delivered. These cotton revenues are helping farmers meet some of their financial needs, giving them the option of delaying the sale of part of their grain crops to obtain better prices in the future.

IV. PROMISING OUTLOOK FOR FARM-GATE AND CONSUMER GRAIN PRICES

Over the past few months, a combination of different price support measures has propped up prices on grain markets. These measures have helped prevent a collapse in prices and have boosted price levels, particularly for farm-gate prices, which began falling with last year’s October and November harvests. As a result, current price levels are affordable for consumers while not falling too low for farmers. Certain markets are now reporting seasonal increases in millet prices, while prices on other markets such as Ségou are still not showing any change (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Trends in average millet prices on retail markets in Ségou City 2002-04 and average for 1999-2003

Graphic: FEWS NET/Mali ; Source of data: OMA (Agricultural Market Observatory)

By this time of year, villagers in Kayes, Yélimané and Nioro Districts in the Kayes Region and the large groups of nomadic herders in the Timbuktu and Gao Regions are concluding their regular bulk purchases of grain products.

Institutional procurements by the OPAM, WFP, grain banks, NGOs and cooperatives are also winding down, which should reduce demand for grain.

Rapport Mensuel sur la Sécurité Alimentaire au Mali : le 23 avril 2004 5

Moreover, pending payments of 68,804 billion CFA francs to cotton planters located mostly south of the Fourteenth Parallel could limit the volume of millet, sorghum and maize brought to market in CMDT areas such as Kita, Bougouni, Fana, Ségou, San, Koutiala and Sikasso harboring large marketable grain surpluses.

Thus, awareness-raising activities designed to strengthen on-farm inventory management practices, such as messages broadcast by specialized agencies, television spots, etc., appear to be working.

As a result, for the 2003/04 marketing year in progress, all signs point to a continuation of current trends in both consumer and farm-gate prices for millet which, while slowly rising, are expected to remain well below price levels for the three past years and the average for the last five years.

The only cloud on the horizon is the continuing threat from desert locusts, which created serious problems during the last growing season, particularly in the northern part of the country.