Report Number 8 Jaiuary 1987 FEWS Country Report MALI Africa Bureau U.S. Agency for International Development M&P 1: MALI Summary Map Bourem Cercle At--Rixk: 60,000 Immediate Food Aid Need: 2,700 wr Monake Cercle At-Risk: 18,000 Immediate Food Aid Need: 800 Ir Douentza Cercle At-Risk: 162,000 (131,000) Nara Cercl.eI At-Risk: 140,0005 Immnediate FFood Aid 2,700 1T Need: Youverou Cercier At-Risk 9(,OOA At-Ri-k: 94.000 5 YouvertuCerc l S Bandiagara Cercie At-Risk: 141,000 At-Risk- 180,000 N Immediate food aid need computed at 42kg per person for 3 month period. FEWS/PWA, January 1957 Famine Early Warning System Country Report MALI At-Risk Update: Focus on Gao Prepared for the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. January 1987 Contents Page i Introduction 1 Summary 2 Population At-Risk 6 Displaced Persons 6 Health and Nutrition 7 Market Prices 7 Food Aid List of Fipurc-s Pa ge 2 Map 2 Gao At-Risk 4 Map 3 Tombouctou At-Risk 5 Map 4 Mopti At-Risk Back Map 5 Administrative Units Cover a series of monthly reports issued INTRODUCTION This is the eighth of by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) on Mali, to current as of January 10, 1987. it is designed and provide decisionmakers with current infor-mation analysis on existi.ng and potential nutrition emergency in situations. Each situation identified is described of people terms of geographical extent and the number insofar as involved, or at-risk, and the proximate causes they have been discerned. popu- Use of the term "at-risk" to identify vulnerable upon lations is problematical since no generally agreed or definition exists. Yet it is necessary to identify to "target" populations in-necd or "at-risk" in order intervention. determine appropriate forms and levels of Thus for the present, until a bettcr usage can be found, to mean... FEWS reports will employ the term "at-risk" ...those persons lacking sufficient food, or resources to acquire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis, i.e., a progressive deterioration in their quo health or nutritional condition below the status to and who, as a result, require specific intervention avoid a life-threatening situation. the process Perhaps of most importan,'- to decisionmakers, by underlying the deteriorating situation is highlighted and the FEWS effort, hopefully with enough specificity strategies forcwarning to permit alternative intervention strat­ to be examined and implemented. Food assistance other types egies are key to famine avoidance. However, in the of intervention can be of major importance both trans­ short-term and in the long-run, including medical, etc. port, storage, economic development policy change, in the Where possible, food needs estimates are included FEWS reports. It is important to understand, however, persons that no direct relation exists between numbers of This at-risk and the quantity of food assistance needed. dis­ is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset aster processes which can be complex in the extreme. The food needs of individual populations at-risk depend upon when in the disaster process identification is made and the extent of its cumulative impact on the individ­ uals concerned. Further, the amount of food assistance required, whether from internal or external sources, depends upon a host of considerations. Thus the food needs estimates presented periodically in FEWS reports should not be interpreted to merin food aid needs, e.g., as under PL480 or other donor programs. FEWS is operated by AID's Office of Technical Resources in the Bureau for Africa in cooperation with numerous USG and other organizations. generally SUMMARY The at-risk populations in Mali remain unchanged since last month, except in nome cercles of Gao Region. It appears that the residents of Gao and Kidal Cercles may still be able to cope with a food situation which, although harsh, is no more so than normal. Monitoring of these two cercles is, however, still necessary. The situation is more critical in the neighboring cercles of Bourem, Ansongo, and Menaka. There, people are being forced to leave their homes, seek free food distributions, and take other emergency action to protect themselves from a nutritional crisis. The number of displaced persons in Gao town is again rising, to largely fed by the return of those who left the town harvest wild grains in the surrounding areas, and by aid migrants from Ansongo and Bourem. Estimates of food required in at-risk areas are being developed by The appropriate governmental and international agencies. unit of Systeme d'Alerte Precoce (SAP), the early warning Drought the National Committee for Aid to Victims of the and Nara (CNAVS), estimates that Bourem, Ansongo, Menaka, tons Cercles immediately need approximately 7,500 metric of food aid for the next three months. Arrondissment found Issues . A second survey in Almoustarat dramatically fewer children suffering from severe malnutrition than indicated by an earlier survey. While the organizational umbrella under which this a estimate and re-cvaluation were carried out suggests robust process, the magnitude of the differences between the two surveys suggests critical problems with methodology or with other, as yet undetermined factors. ration * The SAP recommendation to provide a three month of food aid to the at-risk populations in the cercles time of Bourem, Ansongo, Menaka, and Nara would allow be for further food assessment and nutrition surveys to carried out. A plan for additional short-term, and appropriate middle-term interventions for these populations could then be planned in a non-crisis atmosphere. * A common criteria for intervention in areas at-risk needs to be agreed upon by donors and regional and national authorities. The Drought Relief Office of the USAID mission in Mali suggests that gene-al food distributions be carried out in areas which have a malnutrition rate of over 15% among children. This would require regular anthropometric surveys in areas identified as at-risk in order to decide whether or intervention is needed, whether it should continue, should be stopped. Key January Events e Ten grasshopper survey teams returned from the field in early January. Results of their egg-pod counts should be available shortly. * A second agricultural production estimate should be released soon by the DNSI (National Statistical and Information Science Department). POPULATIONS The December FEWS report discussed the divergent opinions AT-RISK in the donor community concerning the severity of food shortages in Gao Region. Several measures of nutritional stress there (stable feeding center attendance, mixed nutrition survey results, unusual population movements) presented conflicting indications. A more consistent picture is cmerging from further study and receipt of additional information. Gao Region The specific areas of Gao Region with people at-risk include Bourem and Ansongo Cercles, and, to a lesser extent, Menaka Cercle. The chronic food problems currently visible in the Cercles of Gao and Kidal require monitoring, but arc not yet critical. W 2: GAO AT-RISK Key Region Boundary Cercle Boundary ... Arrondlsament Boundary At -Risk Populat ions Temera K IiD A I .- Almoustarat , \ Bamba 2ourem Centra AN S0 2\ The cercle of Bourem is the most severely at-risk in the region for several reasons. As mentioned in previous FEWS reports, the cercle, with a total estimated population of 60,000, was one of the most seriously affected by the drought of 1984-1985. A large percentage of the residents of this cercle are herders, and great Many numbers of their animals died during this period. people were forced to leave Bourem to seek food these distribution in the town of Gao. A large number of same people are still not able to sustain themselves economically. Agricultural production in the cercle has been hurt by other factors. In Fall of 1985, even though the Niger River was 'ell below its usual levels, dikes near Bourem failed and waters destroyed a large portion of the area's meager rice crop. Rainfall throughout 1985 was insufficient to support the few agricultural activities of this ccrcle. In 1986, the rains continued light, the its low crest of the river reduced planting areas along shore, and rodent infestations were widespread. These on elements all combined to produce a catastrophic effect the crops; this year's harvest is expected to be nil. The rodent problems and poor rains this year also severely diminished the size of the wild grain harvest, have eliminating a major food security cushion that could softened the impact of the harvest failure. The final, of and perhaps most severe blow this year was the impact the poor rains on pastureland. Grasses are incufficient the for normal herding needs in most arrondissements of cercle. families In November, the SAP medical team surveyed 277 in the Bourem Central, Bamba, and Temera arrondissments. SAP reports that food stocks at the family level are almost nonexistent, many people have already left the area, and an out-migration of thousands of people should be expected in the coming months. Another area of great concern is the Cercle of Ansongo (estimated total population 56,000), where both the rainy season and irrigated crop harvests are poor, and livestock conditions are difficult. Again, the combined effects of insufficient rainfall and rodent infestation .have had a devastating effect on both cultivated crops and wild grains. Wild grain traditionally constitutes an important part of the diet of the people in Ansongo Cercle at this time of year. Perhaps the most significant indicator of the level of hardship prevailing in the cercle is the unusually large migration of popu!ation out of the area toward Niger.