LIBERIA: HOW SUSTAINABLE IS THE RECOVERY? Africa Report N°177 – 19 August 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. THE ROAD TO ELECTIONS 2011 ................................................................................ 4 A. NEW PARTY MERGERS, SAME OLD POLITICS ............................................................................... 4 B. ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS ......................................................................................................... 6 1. Voter registration ......................................................................................................................... 7 2. Revising electoral districts ........................................................................................................... 8 3. Referendum .................................................................................................................................. 9 C. AN OPEN RACE .......................................................................................................................... 10 D. THE MEDIA ................................................................................................................................ 10 III. SECURITY IN THE SHORT AND MID-TERM ........................................................ 11 A. THE STATE OF THE REFORMED SECURITY SECTOR ..................................................................... 11 1. Army .......................................................................................................................................... 11 2. Police ......................................................................................................................................... 11 3. Other security agencies .............................................................................................................. 13 4. The justice system ...................................................................................................................... 14 B. A WAKE-UP CALL FROM CÔTE D’IVOIRE ................................................................................... 14 IV. LIBERIA UNDER JOHNSON SIRLEAF .................................................................... 16 A. GOODWILL AND PERSONALISED POLITICS .................................................................................. 16 B. SLEEPING AND WAKING UP WITH CORRUPTION? ....................................................................... 17 C. THE TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION ....................................................................... 19 D. THE ECONOMY .......................................................................................................................... 21 V. INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL SUPPORT FOR LIBERIA’S PEACEBUILDING ......................................................................................................... 23 A. SECURITY .................................................................................................................................. 23 B. LINKING PEACEBUILDING WITH POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION ........... 25 VI. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 26 APPENDICES A. MAP OF LIBERIA .............................................................................................................................. 27 B. GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................... 28 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 29 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON AFRICA SINCE 2008 .................................................... 30 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 32 Africa Report N°177 19 August 2011 LIBERIA: HOW SUSTAINABLE IS THE RECOVERY? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Liberia’s October 2011 general and presidential elections, has made great progress, but that there is still much work the second since civil war ended in 2003, are an opportu- to do before international support can be reduced. She nity to consolidate its fragile peace and nascent democ- confidently said that if high levels of support are main- racy. Peaceful, free and fair elections depend on how well tained and good economic management pursued, Liberia the National Elections Commission (NEC) handles the would no longer require foreign aid in ten years. She ac- challenges of the 23 August referendum on constitutional knowledged, however, that the situation in Côte d’Ivoire amendments and opposition perceptions of bias toward the and the related refugee influx, as well as the challenge of president’s Unity Party (UP). The NEC, the government, a large pool of Liberian ex-combatants and other youths political parties, presidential candidates, civil society, ready for recruitment as mercenaries posed a security threat. media and international partners each have roles to play There is no doubt the country has made significant pro- to strengthen trust in the electoral process. They should gress during her presidency, especially in security sector fight the temptation to treat the elections as not crucial for reform, social development, infrastructure rehabilitation sustaining the progress made since the civil war. But even and growth-stimulating foreign direct investment in the after good elections five factors will be critical to lasting tiny economy. But the president’s popularity in the West peace: a more convincing fight against corruption; deeper contrasts markedly with many Liberians’ frustration – fed commitment to transforming Liberia with a new breed of by failed or weak anti-corruption, decentralisation and reform-minded political players; sustained international national reconciliation campaigns – that democracy has engagement in supporting this more ambitious transforma- benefited some more than others. tion; economic development; and regional stability, particu- larly in Côte d’Ivoire. Since the end of the civil war, the focus has been on secu- rity, through the creation from the ground up of a new army The elections are being contested by many of the same and police force under the supervision of, respectively, political actors from the troubled past. Incumbent President the U.S. and UN. The international military and police Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (72) seems to have an edge in the presence embodied by the United Nations Mission in Libe- face of a divided opposition that features lawyer Charles ria (UNMIL) has been the main guarantor of peace. The Brumskine (60), former UN diplomat and legal expert national security sector is now able to cope with some Winston Tubman (70), businessman and diplomat Dew threats, but continued international presence is imperative Mayson (62) and former warlord-turned-senator Prince in view of the failings of the police and their very limited Johnson (52). The former international football great, reach outside the capital, Monrovia. Better coordination George Weah (44), who led the first round in the October between the police and judiciary and greater presence of 2005 presidential elections but lost the run-off, is Tubman’s both in rural communities are priorities. The government’s vice presidential running mate. The political scene has planned justice and security regional hubs – backed by been refigured by hastily concluded mergers and alliances the UN Peacebuilding Commission– should be supported between the numerous parties vying for a portion of power. by donors and established and adequately equipped in the They will have to campaign first for or against constitu- next twelve months. tional amendments at stake in the referendum. The most contentious of these would reactivate a residency require- The most serious threats to security, however, are the per- ment for public office candidates while reducing it from sistence of mercenary activities and arms proliferation. ten years to five. If adopted, the courts would probably The post-election crisis in Côte d’Ivoire from December have to interpret its possible effect on the fast approaching 2010 to April 2011 has tragically revealed the extent of the election. problem for the entire region. Hundreds of young Liberian fighters were easily recruited for a minimum of $500. UN- During her 23-24 June 2011 official visit to the U.S., MIL and the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), in President Johnson Sirleaf’s message was that her country collaboration with the Liberian and Côte d’Ivoire govern- Liberia: How Sustainable Is the Recovery? Crisis Group Africa Report N°177, 19 August 2011 Page ii ments, should use all available military, intelligence and particularly those exploiting the memory of the civil financial means to conclusively eliminate the threat Libe- war and ethnic and religious differences. rian mercenaries pose. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has prematurely closed To the Government of Liberia: its diplomatic representation in Monrovia, should recog- nise that there are still dangers and contribute to initiatives 4. Enhance collaboration between the network of civil to ensure security in eastern