ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS Issue 20 ■ December 2007 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation MACHIAVELLIAN MUGABE ODDS ON FOR RE-ELECTION Endorsement as ZANU-PF presidential candidate means he seems almost certain to win another term in office. By Joseph Sithole in Harare Zimbabwe’s Machiavellian president Robert Mugabe has been endorsed as the sole presidential candidate next year without raising ructions in the ruling ZANU- PF party, but analysts warn a Mugabe victory in the March elections spells doom for the country. They say while it is almost certain that Lazele Credit: ZANU-PF and its leader will triumph in South African president Thabo Mbeki (right) with Robert Mugabe at Harare International the joint parliamentary and presidential Airport following a round of talks on the mediation effort. Picture taken November 22. poll, given the opposition’s divided state and lack of leaders, Mugabe and for a new presidential candidate as the The agenda for the upcoming meeting his followers do not have anything new party’s constitution stated clearly that does not even mention the issue of a to offer the country. its first secretary was automatically presidential candidate. nominated for the post. He made this Emmerson Mnangagwa, the ruling announcement following separate Mnangagwa did not explain why, if the party’s secretary for legal affairs, has central committee and politburo critical issue of a presidential said that a ZANU-PF special congress meetings to set the agenda for the full candidate had been resolved by the later this month would not be looking special congress. party’s constitution, it needed to hold NEWS IN BRIEF ■ Seeking to blame Britain for rights violations in Zimbabwe, ■ The National Constitutional the repeated criticism he was while the Archbishop of York, Dr Assembly civic group on December forced to endure at the EU-Africa John Sentamu, cut up his clerical 7 held a demonstration in central summit in Lisbon, President collar at the weekend, saying he Harare to demand a new, Robert Mugabe dismissed as would not replace it until Mugabe democratic constitution for “Gordon’s gang of four” a was out of power. Zimbabwe. Police moved in and quartet of European leaders who forcibley dispersed the protesters. lined up at the event to attack ■ The Southern African his misrule. British prime minister Development Community ■ The opposition Movement for Gordon Brown did not attend the Tribunal will this week convene Democratic Change has threatened summit because Mugabe was in Windhoek, Namibia, to hear a to boycott next year’s election over present. case in which a white Zimbabwean what it says us gerrymandering, farmer is contesting the claiming that newly-created ■ Archbishop Desmond Tutu on compulsory acquisition of his constituencies favour Mugabe December 10 slammed human farm by the government. strongholds in rural areas. DECEMBER 2007 ■ 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING an extraordinary congress just ahead the international community by his lack secretary-general Kofi Annan, among of the synchronous presidential, of respect for the law and property other eminent statesman. parliamentary and local government rights.” elections. The spokesperson said there had The analyst noted that the leader in never been such an approach by ZANU-PF secretary for information and any organisation provides the Mandela or anyone else because publicity Nathan Shamuyarira told the “emotional anchor” upon which that everyone is “behind the Thabo Mbeki party mouthpiece, The Voice, in late organisation is judged. mediation effort”. November that all the posts in the presidium would be open to contest at “In our case Mugabe’s name evokes The South African president was in the special congress. the worst memories of any leader. That March mandated by the Southern means with him at the helm we have African Development Community, Vice-President Joseph Msika no chance to reconnect with other SADC, to facilitate talks between supported this view, saying “no one nations, we have no chance to ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mandela’s has been endorsed” as the normalise relations, which can only spokeswoman in Johannesburg also presidential candidate in the party, mean more suffering for the people of denied the claims, saying Mandela thus suggesting there might be Zimbabwe,” he said. had retired from active engagements vacancies for the ambitious. in August 2004 and in any case would Zimbabwe has experienced a not be found trying to undermine his But insiders said Shamuyarira might precipitous economic decline since successor. have been deliberately sowing 2000, when the government started confusion on the issue as part of seizing white commercial farms. Since A political analyst at the University of Mugabe’s plan to “smoke out” those then, unemployment has run riot at Zimbabwe said Mugabe was “too who wanted to challenge him. nearly 85 per cent, with the world’s arrogant” to accept a suggestion to highest inflation of more than 8,000 step down because it would suggest “In a way, it goes to show you just how per cent. that he had failed. He said Mugabe ill-informed this country is,” said a had in fact been emboldened by the ZANU-PF official who refused to be This has given rise to a vocal current squabbles in the MDC and named. “The party constitution is clear opposition. The Movement for would want to prove detractors wrong on the selection of a presidential Democratic Change, MDC, led by for saying he was afraid to face the candidate, yet people seek to alter the Morgan Tsvangirai, in 2000 narrowly electorate. rules just because they no longer want lost to ZANU-PF when it won 57 seats the incumbent. Mugabe was therefore against the ruling party’s 63 seats in The academic said the future now on able to expose their folly and neutralise parliament. depended on the choice of candidate them before they could spread that parliament would make in the confusion in the party structures.” However, the MDC suffered a major event that Mugabe retires after he is split in 2005 over whether the party elected. Depending on the outcome of Analysts said although Mugabe had should participate in the election of the elections, the two main parties avoided a storm in his own party, it members of the revived second house could settle for a compromise was bad news for the nation. of parliament, the Senate. It has lately candidate acceptable to the been convulsed by further internal international community. “If anything, Mugabe has become a strife after the party leadership huge liability to both the party that has dissolved the influential Women’s “The harmonised elections will work endorsed him as its presidential Assembly, led by Lucia Matibenga, well for Mugabe because aspiring candidate and the country he wishes replacing her with the wife of a MPs are also forced to campaign for to lead,” said a political analyst in the colleague of Tsvangirai. him,” said the analyst. “Once his party capital Harare. wins, he can opt to retire as a victor, Analysts accuse the MDC of lacking and scoff at those who believed he “Both Mugabe himself and his party strategic thinkers despite the many was no longer popular. no longer have a vision for leading the failures by Mugabe and his ruling party. nation. Leadership is all about a vision “Mugabe is too arrogant to take for the future, not simply occupying Government spokesmen have denied anything which suggests that he was the highest office in government. media reports that Mugabe rejected enticed into retirement. His impact on overtures by the Elders Group for him the economy is something else. Once “In Mugabe’s case, the situation is to step down before next year’s he has triumphed over his enemies in bound to be worse if he wins next watershed election. The group the party and outside, he can then year’s election. He not only lacks the includes former South African retire as a hero.” vision but has lost the good will of his president Nelson Mandela, Britain’s own people, who have suffered for 27 billionaire businessman Richard Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of an years under his rule. He has alienated Branson, and former United Nations IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe. ■ 2 ■ ISSUE 20 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS CRISIS TALKS STALLING Ruling party reluctant to concede to key opposition demand for electoral law reform. By Joseph Sithole in Harare The talks between the ruling ZANU-PF party and both factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, aimed at resolving the country’s political and economic crisis seem to be stalling. The MDC is driving a hard bargain but President Robert Mugabe’s negotiators are not giving in. The fractured opposition party is Lazele Credit: demanding that the country’s MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai addresses journalists at party headquarters in Harare. repressive electoral laws be repealed, Picture taken April 5. or at least amended, ahead of next year’s harmonised presidential, could dissolve parliament at any time “And while ZANU-PF is keen to secure legislative and local government in preparation for the launch of a legitimate victory this time around, it elections. election campaigning. The will not throw away all the laws that commentator noted that the MDC had give it advantage overnight.” The party is also demanding an end not launched its own campaign and to politically motivated violence was sending out conflicting signals He noted that in Mugabe’s address against its supporters as it seeks to about whether it would participate in to ZANU-PF supporters who make the most of the ongoing the elections. marched last week in support of his negotiations with ZANU-PF, being candidacy in next year’s elections, mediated by South African president the president referred to the “road to Thabo Mbeki.