CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 20 ■ December 2007 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

MACHIAVELLIAN MUGABE ODDS ON FOR RE-ELECTION

Endorsement as ZANU-PF presidential candidate means he seems almost certain to win another term in office.

By Joseph Sithole in

Zimbabwe’s Machiavellian president has been endorsed as the sole presidential candidate next year without raising ructions in the ruling ZANU- PF party, but analysts warn a Mugabe victory in the March elections spells doom for the country.

They say while it is almost certain that Lazele Credit: ZANU-PF and its leader will triumph in South African president Thabo Mbeki (right) with Robert Mugabe at Harare International the joint parliamentary and presidential Airport following a round of talks on the mediation effort. Picture taken November 22. poll, given the opposition’s divided state and lack of leaders, Mugabe and for a new presidential candidate as the The agenda for the upcoming meeting his followers do not have anything new party’s constitution stated clearly that does not even mention the issue of a to offer the country. its first secretary was automatically presidential candidate. nominated for the post. He made this , the ruling announcement following separate Mnangagwa did not explain why, if the party’s secretary for legal affairs, has central committee and politburo critical issue of a presidential said that a ZANU-PF special congress meetings to set the agenda for the full candidate had been resolved by the later this month would not be looking special congress. party’s constitution, it needed to hold

NEWS IN BRIEF

■ Seeking to blame Britain for rights violations in Zimbabwe, ■ The National Constitutional the repeated criticism he was while the Archbishop of York, Dr Assembly civic group on December forced to endure at the EU-Africa John Sentamu, cut up his clerical 7 held a demonstration in central summit in Lisbon, President collar at the weekend, saying he Harare to demand a new, Robert Mugabe dismissed as would not replace it until Mugabe democratic constitution for “Gordon’s gang of four” a was out of power. Zimbabwe. Police moved in and quartet of European leaders who forcibley dispersed the protesters. lined up at the event to attack ■ The Southern African his misrule. British prime minister Development Community ■ The opposition Movement for Gordon Brown did not attend the Tribunal will this week convene Democratic Change has threatened summit because Mugabe was in Windhoek, Namibia, to hear a to boycott next year’s election over present. case in which a white Zimbabwean what it says us gerrymandering, farmer is contesting the claiming that newly-created ■ Archbishop Desmond Tutu on compulsory acquisition of his constituencies favour Mugabe December 10 slammed human farm by the government. strongholds in rural areas.

DECEMBER 2007 ■ 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING an extraordinary congress just ahead the international community by his lack secretary-general Kofi Annan, among of the synchronous presidential, of respect for the law and property other eminent statesman. parliamentary and local government rights.” elections. The spokesperson said there had The analyst noted that the leader in never been such an approach by ZANU-PF secretary for information and any organisation provides the Mandela or anyone else because publicity told the “emotional anchor” upon which that everyone is “behind the Thabo Mbeki party mouthpiece, The Voice, in late organisation is judged. mediation effort”. November that all the posts in the presidium would be open to contest at “In our case Mugabe’s name evokes The South African president was in the special congress. the worst memories of any leader. That March mandated by the Southern means with him at the helm we have African Development Community, Vice-President no chance to reconnect with other SADC, to facilitate talks between supported this view, saying “no one nations, we have no chance to ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mandela’s has been endorsed” as the normalise relations, which can only spokeswoman in Johannesburg also presidential candidate in the party, mean more suffering for the people of denied the claims, saying Mandela thus suggesting there might be Zimbabwe,” he said. had retired from active engagements vacancies for the ambitious. in August 2004 and in any case would Zimbabwe has experienced a not be found trying to undermine his But insiders said Shamuyarira might precipitous economic decline since successor. have been deliberately sowing 2000, when the government started confusion on the issue as part of seizing white commercial farms. Since A political analyst at the University of Mugabe’s plan to “smoke out” those then, unemployment has run riot at Zimbabwe said Mugabe was “too who wanted to challenge him. nearly 85 per cent, with the world’s arrogant” to accept a suggestion to highest inflation of more than 8,000 step down because it would suggest “In a way, it goes to show you just how per cent. that he had failed. He said Mugabe ill-informed this country is,” said a had in fact been emboldened by the ZANU-PF official who refused to be This has given rise to a vocal current squabbles in the MDC and named. “The party constitution is clear opposition. The Movement for would want to prove detractors wrong on the selection of a presidential Democratic Change, MDC, led by for saying he was afraid to face the candidate, yet people seek to alter the , in 2000 narrowly electorate. rules just because they no longer want lost to ZANU-PF when it won 57 seats the incumbent. Mugabe was therefore against the ruling party’s 63 seats in The academic said the future now on able to expose their folly and neutralise parliament. depended on the choice of candidate them before they could spread that parliament would make in the confusion in the party structures.” However, the MDC suffered a major event that Mugabe retires after he is split in 2005 over whether the party elected. Depending on the outcome of Analysts said although Mugabe had should participate in the election of the elections, the two main parties avoided a storm in his own party, it members of the revived second house could settle for a compromise was bad news for the nation. of parliament, the Senate. It has lately candidate acceptable to the been convulsed by further internal international community. “If anything, Mugabe has become a strife after the party leadership huge liability to both the party that has dissolved the influential Women’s “The harmonised elections will work endorsed him as its presidential Assembly, led by Lucia Matibenga, well for Mugabe because aspiring candidate and the country he wishes replacing her with the wife of a MPs are also forced to campaign for to lead,” said a political analyst in the colleague of Tsvangirai. him,” said the analyst. “Once his party capital Harare. wins, he can opt to retire as a victor, Analysts accuse the MDC of lacking and scoff at those who believed he “Both Mugabe himself and his party strategic thinkers despite the many was no longer popular. no longer have a vision for leading the failures by Mugabe and his ruling party. nation. Leadership is all about a vision “Mugabe is too arrogant to take for the future, not simply occupying Government spokesmen have denied anything which suggests that he was the highest office in government. media reports that Mugabe rejected enticed into retirement. His impact on overtures by the Elders Group for him the economy is something else. Once “In Mugabe’s case, the situation is to step down before next year’s he has triumphed over his enemies in bound to be worse if he wins next watershed election. The group the party and outside, he can then year’s election. He not only lacks the includes former South African retire as a hero.” vision but has lost the good will of his president Nelson Mandela, Britain’s own people, who have suffered for 27 billionaire businessman Richard Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of an years under his rule. He has alienated Branson, and former United Nations IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe. ■

2 ■ ISSUE 20 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS CRISIS TALKS STALLING

Ruling party reluctant to concede to key opposition demand for electoral law reform.

By Joseph Sithole in Harare

The talks between the ruling ZANU-PF party and both factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, aimed at resolving the country’s political and economic crisis seem to be stalling. The MDC is driving a hard bargain but President Robert Mugabe’s negotiators are not giving in.

The fractured opposition party is Lazele Credit: demanding that the country’s MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai addresses journalists at party headquarters in Harare. repressive electoral laws be repealed, Picture taken April 5. or at least amended, ahead of next year’s harmonised presidential, could dissolve parliament at any time “And while ZANU-PF is keen to secure legislative and local government in preparation for the launch of a legitimate victory this time around, it elections. election campaigning. The will not throw away all the laws that commentator noted that the MDC had give it advantage overnight.” The party is also demanding an end not launched its own campaign and to politically motivated violence was sending out conflicting signals He noted that in Mugabe’s address against its supporters as it seeks to about whether it would participate in to ZANU-PF supporters who make the most of the ongoing the elections. marched last week in support of his negotiations with ZANU-PF, being candidacy in next year’s elections, mediated by South African president the president referred to the “road to Thabo Mbeki. It has also called for a March” at least three times, a sign new constitution to replace the that he did not contemplate a Lancaster House Constitution, The MDC is demanding postponement of the polls to allow hammered out at independence and that repressive electoral for amendments. amended 18 times in the past 27 laws be repealed, or at years. But Zimbabwe’s autocratic 83- However, said the commentator, year old leader has rejected a new least amended. Mugabe talked about an election free constitution outright. of violence, so that he could demonstrate to his detractors that he Analysts say the process of amending was still popular. or repealing repressive legislation “The ideal thing would have been to such as the Public Order and Security repeal all the repressive laws in the “Short of an amendment to these Act or the Access to Information and country to even the electoral playing [electoral] laws,” he said, “the MDC Protection of Privacy Act would require field,” said the commentator. “But that will have to make do with whatever an exhaustive lobbying of the ruling is almost impossible from both a comes its way. While a boycott of the party’s members of parliament, and logistical point of view and from a elections may sound appealing, its would lead to a postponement of the political strategy. There simply is not impact on the nation would be elections — something that Mugabe is enough time now for the negotiators to devastating. It will deny Mugabe’s against. begin a process that will need to be regime the legitimacy it desperately debated by parliament and passed needs but the nation cannot afford A political commentator in the capital into law before March next year. another five years of this destructive Harare said this process was almost Remember we are talking about an stand-off with the international impossible now, given that Mugabe election only four months away. community.

DECEMBER 2007 ■ 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

“Yet on the other hand, that decision voters’ roll was “full of dead and ghost results are announced, all would have might be a ploy by MDC leader voters” and that it was flawed. been in vain.” Morgan Tsvangirai to look for a dignified exit because another “The best that the MDC can demand One opposition member of parliament electoral loss, no matter how flawed at the talks is that it be involved at said he hoped the chief negotiators, the process, will mark an end for him every stage of the election process,” and for as a credible leader of his party.” he said. “They need to closely monitor the MDC and Legal Affairs Minister the ballots; they need to have and Labour unhindered access to the polling Minister for ZANU-PF, “The MDC will have to stations and they need to be there were not focusing too much on legal when the counting is done,” said the technicalities. make do with whatever analyst. comes its way. While a boycott of the elections The analyst also noted that the electoral machinery needs to be may sound appealing, its Negotiations should focus impact on the nation would completely “demilitarised” to gain credibility. He referred to the on the law as it exists on be devastating” — Command Centre, which announces paper and how the police commentator. results of elections, and which he said interpret it — opposition was manned by personnel from the member of parliament. army, the Central Intelligence He said while it was good for the Organisation and the police. opposition to keep its options open, its obsession with electoral law reform was not helpful to its cause. The “I don’t know exactly what the thrust of decisive factors concerning the “As long as the outcome the negotiations is,” said the MP, “but I outcome of the election were can be manipulated at the hope they will come up with institutions such as the Zimbabwe point where the results are meaningful changes. For instance, Electoral Commission and the even POSA [Public Order and Security Command Centre, which he said were announced, all would have Act] in its current form only requires pro-establishment. been in vain.” that we inform the police if we want to hold a rally. But its application by the The Registrar-General’s office, which is police is as if we need their permission in charge of the voters’ roll, was badly before we can hold a meeting. These compromised, he noted, having been “It is here that the results will be are the substantive issues that need to used in the past to manipulate the decided if the MDC is not careful,” be clarified: what is on paper and voters’ roll and electoral boundaries. It said the analyst. “They can have all what the police can do.” is headed by Tobaiwa Mudede, a the electoral laws repealed today but staunch Mugabe loyalist. The MDC as long as the outcome can be Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of itself complained last week that the manipulated at the point where the the IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe. ■

4 ■ ISSUE 20 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS MUGABE STOKES DIPLOMATIC WAR

President says his western critics will not be invited to monitor upcoming elections.

By Obert Marufu in Harare

President Robert Mugabe has upped the stakes in his diplomatic war with the United States and Britain after he declared in a televised national address that only “friendly and objective members of the international community” would be invited to observe the country’s harmonised presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for March next year. Lazele Credit: ZANU-PF members gathered at Zimbabwe Grounds, Harare, to hear President In his state-of-the-nation address on Mugabe speak. Picture taken November 30. December 4, he repeated his message to what government officials appears to enjoy unqualified support He said a sinister campaign by Britain claim was a million war veterans and only from Europe and the US — which to isolate Zimbabwe, “including the other party supporters who marched Mugabe accuses of trying to oust his recent attempt to bar us from in Harare on November 30 to support regime to install their puppets. attending the European Union-Africa the endorsement of Mugabe as the summit” in Portugal, was ruling ZANU- PF sole presidential South African president Thabo Mbeki, disintegrating, allowing the country an candidate. who was mandated by the Southern opportunity for “fruitful engagement African Development Community, with other nations”. Mugabe told the “Million Man/Woman” SADC, in March to mediate in the talks marchers at Zimbabwe Grounds in the between ZANU-PF and the MDC, has Portugal invited Zimbabwe to attend poor suburb of Highfield that the pledged free and fair elections. the December 8-9 summit to discuss government would not tolerate any “trade, peace and security, climate form of violence during next year’s During his state-of-the-nation address, change, development aid and elections. Mugabe gave special praise to Mbeki governance” in the face of protests by for the ongoing talks between ZANU- Britain. Prime Minister Gordon Brown He said only friendly countries would PF and the MDC, which he said “have did not attend because Mugabe was be invited to observe the polls, pitting ushered in the dawn of a new era of to be present. his ZANU-PF against the opposition constructive engagement across the Movement for Democratic Change, political divide”. He said this had been Mugabe also appeared to have been MDC. achieved despite “sustained angered by remarks attributed to the manipulation and arm-twisting new US ambassador to Zimbabwe, The MDC, currently engaged in manoeuvres cunningly spearheaded James McGee, that the Zimbabwe protracted negotiations with the ruling by Britain”. Democracy and Economic Recovery party on how to level the electoral Act limiting the US’s dealings with the playing field and end the country’s In a speech largely devoted to a soul- southern African nation mainly to eight-year political stalemate and searching admission of the country’s humanitarian assistance would not be economic decline, has made the issue myriad problems, such as shortages scrapped even if Mugabe won “free of international observers a key of fuel and power, rural poverty and and fair elections”. demand. low productivity on newly-resettled farms, the brain-drain and lack of McGee said last week, “United Unfortunately, the MDC is viewed with capacity-utilisation, Mugabe also had States policy on Zimbabwe is not suspicion among leaders of African a few telling comments for his western about free and fair elections alone. and many Third World countries and “detractors”. That is only one of the principles

DECEMBER 2007 ■ 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING outlined in the law. There is a need bitter aftertaste. Government has at its “We need to watch closely what to address all the principles before disposal the means to deal firmly with happens as we move towards the the law can be repealed, such as anyone seeking to engage in acts of elections; whether Mugabe’s human rights and the restoration of violence.” supporters act according to what he is the rule of law.” saying regarding violence.” A political analyst in Harare said it was difficult to trust Mugabe, given the electoral violence that characterised past elections. But he added that “United States policy on those calling for free and fair elections Election campaigners Zimbabwe is not about free were opening themselves up to should work “in an and fair elections alone” — attacks of hypocrisy by raising atmosphere of peace and US ambassador. concerns that are not aired with regard shun activities that may to other countries in the region where the electoral process is overtly flawed leave behind a bitter and violence is endemic, such as aftertaste”. Nigeria and the Democratic Republic In what analysts said was a rebuke of Congo, DRC. aimed at the US ambassador, Mugabe last week said that as Zimbabwe He predicted a prolonged standoff heads towards harmonised elections between Britain and the US on the in 2008, “Let the message ring clearly “Let the message ring one hand and most African to our detractors that as a sovereign clearly to our detractors countries on the other over the nation we will not brook any that… we will not brook elections. interference in our domestic affairs. We will hold our elections guided by any interference in our “Most African nations will endorse our constitution and laws as we have domestic affairs” — whatever outcome emerges,” said the always done”. Mugabe. analyst. “But Britain and the US will find themselves standing alone He added, “As is our tradition, we will because they have already indicated invite friendly nations and objective by their remarks the outcome they members of the international “Why is nobody talking about want — something Africans and other community to observe the elections. sanctions against Nigeria and the DRC Third World nations will obviously Those of our people who wish to go despite their clearly flawed recent resist.” about campaigning should do so in an elections, yet they have been left to atmosphere of peace and shun forge ahead the best they can?” he Obert Marufu is the pseudonym of an activities that may leave behind a asked. IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe. ■

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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