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Petronet LNG Upside/(Downside) (%) 31 Bloomberg Ticker PLNG in BUY Oil & Gas | India Market Cap

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Petronet LNG Upside/(Downside) (%) 31 Bloomberg Ticker PLNG in BUY Oil & Gas | India Market Cap Institutional Equity Research CMP (Rs) 256 Petronet LNG Upside/(Downside) (%) 31 Bloomberg Ticker PLNG IN BUY Oil & Gas | India Market Cap. (Rs bn) 383 2 Year Target Price: Rs.335 Free Float (%) 50 Company Update | 17 July 2020 Shares O/S (Mn) 1,500 Strong Earnings Visibility; Attractive Valuation Key Triggers: India’s largest LNG re-gasification company with total operational capacity of 22.5MMTPA Dahej, India’s biggest re-gas terminal well-connected with gas pipelines, operated at ~105% Click Image for Video capacity in FY20 Presentation Global LNG prices slumped to multi-year low – positive Kochi-Mangalore pipeline commissioning in Jul’20 – key growth driver High dividend payout track record; strong cash rich balance sheet Research Analyst: Yogesh Patil 1. The drop in the global oil price is structurally positive for Petronet LNG (PLNG), as all its long- Contact : (022) 3303 4632/9763153797 term LNG contracts are oil-linked. So, a lower oil price scenario brings down its energy cost as Email : [email protected] well as reduces the premium of long-term contracts over the spot prices. Research Associate: 2. Kochi-Mangalore pipeline is expected to be commissioned by Jul’20, following which the Pratik Oza utilisation of Kochi terminal will increase to 22% in FY21E (with 28% YoY growth in volume) from Contact : (022) 3303 4000 / 9960358990 17% in FY20. Improved utilisation in Kochi will aid ~5% CAGR in earnings through FY20-FY23E.. Email : [email protected] 3. Mundra LNG terminal, which started operations in 3QFY20, is charging re-gas tariff of ~Rs63/ mmbtu compared to Rs52.4/mmbtu charged by Dahej terminal. So, any new player cannot offer any long-term contract at cheaper tariff than PLNG’s Dahej terminal. 4. PLNG is planning to set up LNG stations in phases. In Phase-I, it is setting up 50 stations on 5 major highways (western and southern corridor) in FY21E. In Phase-II, it plans to set up around 300 LNG dispensing stations on the highways. Annual running cost of LNG-fuelled truck is Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth estimated to be 38% cheaper than diesel-operated trucks with payback period of <2 years. Absolute performance 1.9 25.2 8.8 Relative to Nifty -6.3 6.3 18.0 Impact of COVID-19: Following drop in utilization level to 55%-60% in Apr’20, Dahej is now operating at 100% utilization level. PLNG has invoked force majeure clause on 1 LNG cargo, 7 Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Ras-gas cargoes and 1 Gorgon cargoes in Mar’20. While the LNG off-take by the power has Promoter 50.0 50.0 gone up in Gujarat, Torrent Power plant is consuming more spot LNG. Public 50.0 50.0 Outlook & Valuation We downwardly revise our EBITDA estimate by 21%/4% and PAT estimate by 31%/14% for FY21E and FY22E to factor the impact of COVID-19 in FY21 and a conservative scenario for FY22. We 1 Year Stock Price Performance believe PLNG offers an attractive combination of strong earnings visibility over the next 2 to 3 290 years, attractive valuation at 15.6x of FY23E EPS and strong cash rich balance sheet. Valuing on 270 DCF methodology with WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 0%, we maintain BUY on 250 PLNG with a 2-Year Target Price of Rs335. 230 210 Financial Summary 190 Y/E March (Rs.mn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E 170 Net Sales 3,83,954 3,54,520 2,38,001 2,92,294 3,45,859 150 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 - - - - - - - EBITDA 32,935 39,895 37,096 46,749 50,985 - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Oct Oct Sep Dec Jun Nov Jan Jan Apr Feb Aug Aug Mar Mar May EBITDA margin (%) 8.6% 11.3% 15.6% 16.0% 14.7% May Net Profit 22,306 27,034 21,827 28,961 32,248 Note: * CMP as on 16 July 2020 EPS(Rs.) 14.9 18.0 14.6 19.3 21.5 YoY growth (%) 6% 21% -19% 33% 11% Change of Estimates RoE (%) 22% 24% 19% 23% 23% (% change) FY21E FY22E RoCE (%) 23% 20% 17% 22% 22% Net Sales -29.2% -16.5% PER (x) 17.2 14.2 17.6 13.3 11.9 EBITDA -21.1% -4.2% P/BV 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 Net Profit -31.1% -13.7% EV/ EBITDA 10.8 9.4 9.8 7.5 6.5 Source: Company, RSec Research We have made changes to our Recommendation and Target Price. Please refer to Page no. 11 at the end of the report. 1 Our Thesis Drop In LNG prices - The drop in the global oil price is structurally positive for Petronet LNG (PLNG), as all its long- term LNG contracts are oil-linked. So, a lower oil price scenario brings down its energy cost as well as reduces the Key Sectoral Theme premium of long-term contracts over the spot prices. No Risk from New Player -Mundra LNG terminal, which started operations in 3QFY20, is charging re-gas tariff of Rs63/mmbtu compared to Rs52.4/mmbtu charged by Dahej terminal. So, any new player cannot offer any long- term contract at cheaper tariff than PLNG’s Dahej terminal. Kochi Mangalore Pipeline – The Key Growth Driver - Kochi-Mangalore pipeline is expected to be commissioned by July’20, following which the utilisation of Kochi terminal will increase to 22% in FY21E (with 28% YoY growth in volume). Improved utilisation in Kochi will aid 5% CAGR in earnings through FY20-FY223E. LNG Dispensing Stations – A New Long-term Growth Story -PLNG is planning to set up LNG stations in phases. In Phase-I, it is setting up 50 stations on 5 major highways (western and southern corridor) in FY21E. In Phase-II, it plans to set up around 300 LNG dispensing stations on the highways. Annual running cost of LNG-fuelled truck Key Investment is estimated to be 38% cheaper than diesel-operated trucks with payback period of <2 years. Themes High Dividend Payout Track Record - The company has earmarked Rs3.48bn capex for FY21. It seems the plan for addition of tanks/jetty at Dahej is being held back, which would result in significant free cash flow (FCF). The company paid 69% total dividend in FY20. With the abolition of dividend distribution tax, we estimate dividend payout at 68- 84% over FY21-22E, as we expect the Board to keep payout high, given the limited investment opportunities. However, we still expect net cash balances to go up from Rs10.2bn as at Mar20 to Rs50.2bn by FY23E. Valuation: We downwardly revise our EBITDA estimate by 21%/4% and PAT estimate by 31%/14% for FY21E and FY22E to factor the impact of COVID-19 in FY21 and a conservative scenario for FY22. We believe PLNG offers an attractive combination of strong earnings visibility over the next 2 to 3 years, attractive valuation at 15.6x of FY23E EPS and strong cash rich balance sheet. Valuing on DCF methodology with WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 0%, we maintain BUY on PLNG with a 2-Year Target Price of Rs335. 2 EPS & Target Price 25.0 400 335 301 350 20.0 281 21.5 300 219 232 227 19.3 15.0 18.0 250 179 14.1 14.9 14.6 200 10.0 11.5 150 100 5.0 50 - - FY17 (-3) FY18 (-2) FY19 (-1) FY20 (Base FY21E (Year FY22E FY23E Year) 1) (Year 2) (Year 3) EPS (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Source: Company, RSec Research Price Sensitivity Analysis EPS (Rs) Growth (%) FWD P/E 10.0 15.6 17.6 19.6 21.6 FY17 (-3) 11.5 23.1 115 179 202 225 248 FY18 (-2) 14.1 22.5 18.8 141 219 247 275 304 FY19 (-1) 14.9 5.7 17.8 149 232 261 291 321 FY20 (Base Year) 18.0 21.2 14.7 180 281 317 353 389 FY21E (Year 1) 14.6 -19.3 18.2 146 227 256 285 314 FY22E (Year 2) 19.3 32.7 13.7 193 301 339 378 417 FY23E (Year 3) 21.5 11.3 12.3 215 335 378 421 464 Soure: RSec Research DCF Valuation, terminal growth rate 0% FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 NOPAT INR mn 21,751 28,687 31,570 26,047 27,359 28,085 DDA INR mn 8,029 8,412 8,796 9,180 9,564 9,948 Capex INR mn -3,480 -5,000 -5,000 -5,000 -5,000 -5,000 FCF INR mn 26,300 32,100 35,366 30,227 31,924 33,033 WACC (%) 10% 10% Target Price 316 335 Source: Company, RSec Research 3 4QFY20 Result Conference Call - Key Takeaways 1. Negotiation with Qatar Gas for LNG: Management refrained from any comment as the deal is in progress. 2. Force Majeure: PLNG invoked force majeure for around 8 contracts of Ras-gas and 1 contract of Exxon mobile. 3. Kochi LNG Terminal: The Board of Directors has approved reduction in Kochi re-gasification charges from Rs104/mmbtu to Rs79.14/mmbtu. However, the off-takers have raised objection to reduce the charges further. A committee of directors is formed to look into the issue. The management clarified that the prices shall be reduced only if there is no impairment of Kochi assets.
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