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Factsheet April 11

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Factsheet April 11 April 2011 EQUITY OUTLOOK After a strong March, the Indian indices finished April with a 1% plus decline. Nifty ended April down 1.3% on the back of fears of a slowing growth trajectory and rising inflation. While the CNX midcap index did marginally better, ending the month up by a 1%. FIIs were net buyers of ~US$1.5 bn during April making it the second straight month of strong Gaurav Kapur SENIOR MANAGER - EQUITY inflows into the country. RBI in its monetary policy was hawkish in its tone due to stubbornly high inflation and has now revised growth downwards. The central bank expects GDP growth to moderate to “around 8%” in FY12 and WPI inflation to remain elevated in H1 FY12, moderating to “6.0% with an upside bias” by March 2012, from 9.0% currently. On the manufacturing side, the IIP data for the month of February to 3.6% y-o-y in February from an upwardly revised 3.9% y-o-y in January, and was below expectations. Intermediates and consumer goods displayed strong momentum, even as capital goods output growth slumped Domestically, inflation remained stubbornly high with wholesale price index (WPI) inflation coming in at 8.98% y-o-y in March up from 8.31% in February. The inflation remains substantially higher, not just compared with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) initial March 2011 projection of 5.5% (set last April), but also from the revised projection of 8.0% set only last month. An across-the board surge in non-food manufactured product prices – textiles, beverages & tobacco, wood & paper products, chemicals, metals and non-metallic mineral products – led to a steep 1.4% m-o-m rise in manufactured product prices in March The RBI raised the repo rate, the key policy rate (see chart), and Trends in Key Policy Rates (%) % 10 reverse repo rate by 50bps each to 7.25% and 6.25% respectively. Key Rates: 9 Repo Rate now key policy rate, raised by 50bps to 7.25% Reverse Repo Rate fixed at 100bps below Repo Rate - i.e 6.25%from 5.75% earlier While expectations were for RBI continuing with ‘baby steps’, the 8 CRR: unchanged at 6% 7 odds of a 50bp hike rose in a bid to quell inflationary expectations 6 post the latest WPI number of 9%. With the RBI stating that 5 4 ‘bringing down inflation even at the cost of some growth should 3 1 4 0 7 3 3 7 7 9 9 5 5 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - r r r r r c c c c g g g g take precedence’, this adds upside risk to our estimate of a further p p p p p e e e e u u u u A A A A A A A D D A D D A 50-75bp hike in the coming quarters. Reverse Repo Rate CRR Repo Rate Source: RBI, CSO, Office of the Economic Advisor. CIRA Going forward, we expect the slowing economic growth due to the high inflation to remain in focus. The market ended negative in April and we expect the market to move sideways till there is some correction in commodity prices thereby improving the corporate profitability. Data Source : Bloomberg LP (Unless indicated otherwise) 2 Bharti AXA Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK MACRO ECONOMIC REVIEW With the Jasmine revolution spreading to Libya, and the ongoing struggle between the pro and anti government forces keeping the prices of crude oil, and also other commodities on the boil since the beginning of March, inflation has also Ramesh Rachuri staged a turnaround to the upside, printing in at 8.98% in April for the end of March year-on-year period. SENIOR FUND MANAGER FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK It seems now that we are firmly in the 3rd leg of the inflation led interest rate hiking cycle, similar to the end of 2007, and the beginning of the 2008 phase. From food articles, inflation has now definitely spilled over onto other articles, leading to generalized inflation. However, there are more global factors fuelling this. The expansionary and loose monetary policies pursued by the U.S., is washing onto other asset classes and shores – notably commodities, and emerging markets, leading to increased consumption, and generalized rise in prices. There have been food price related riots in various parts of the world, one of whose outcomes is the Jasmine revolution. The generalized price inflation is one area where monetary policy is widely believed to be effective, and hence we expect an increase of between 50 – 75 bps rise in interest rates by the RBI in this financial year. This is assuming that RBI will continue on its gradualistic rate raising policy. The other option for the RBI is to frontload the rate hikes by hiking 50 bps, and then taking a call, once the contours of the flow of monsoon and its impact are fully known. Domestically, a lot depends on the monsoon, and as we head into it, the picture will get much clearer. Preliminary expectations are coming in for a normal monsoon this year. What is interesting is that, assuming the current scenario of 50 – 75 bps rate hike holds, then the earlier rate rises have raised the accrual on the corporate bonds and discounted instruments. This more than ever compensates the holder to a large extent, from further rate rises, and reduction in prices. Juxtaposed with this, is the fact that for many investors, it is not possible to call the top of the interest rate cycle, at which point theoretically, one should go long on duration and get totally invested in long term debt. Hence, we believe that increasing allocation to debt over equity, and that too in the Short Term Income Fund category will really start paying off in the next 6 months to 1 year period. The higher holding period is required to ride out the volatility arising from any further rate hikes. The new borrowing calendar has started after the hiatus in March. As expected, yields have shown an increase with the new supply. The RBI has also started issuing Cash Management Bills to mop up the excess liquidity due to the government borrowing from RBI (Ways and Means Advances). All these actions are a part of the inflation fighting efforts of the RBI, and is likely to continue till WPI inflation starts coming down. Data Source : Bloomberg LP (Unless indicated otherwise) Get the latest Equity Market Outlook & Fixed Income Market Outlook regularly in your mail box. Visit www.bhartiaxa-im.com & subscribe now! 3 Bharti AXA Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. PORTFOLIO DETAILS Bharti AXA Equity Fund All data as on April 29, 2011 (Unless indicated otherwise) Portfolio Holdings AMFI Sector % to Net Classification Assets EQUITY & EQUITY RELATED PERFORMANCE (as on April 29, 2011) Listed / awaiting listing on the stock exchanges Reliance Industries Ltd Energy 7.13 (<1 Year Absolute% & >1Year Compounded Annualised %) MONEY Infosys Technologies Ltd IT 6.99 MUNI$ ICICI Bank Ltd Financial Services 6.70 ITC Ltd Consumer Goods 6.32 Period Bharti AXA Equity Fund - S&P CNX Nifty Tata Consultancy Services Ltd IT 4.40 Regular - Growth* Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd Financial Services 4.30 HDFC Bank Ltd Financial Services 4.19 6 Months -7.3684% -4.4569% HCL Technologies Ltd IT 3.89 State Bank of India Financial Services 3.76 Last 1 Year -4.6712% 8.9589% Tata Motors Ltd Automobile 3.46 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Construction 2.82 Since Inception 27.5607% 35.3844% Coal India Ltd Metals 2.78 (date of first NAV - Bharti Airtel Ltd Telecom 2.67 October 29, 2008) Opt for Investor Friendly Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Automobile 2.30 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd Pharma 2.27 Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. features like Daily SIP Sintex Industries Ltd Industrial Manufacturing 2.22 and Eco Plan Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd Pharma 2.03 *Performance of the dividend Plan for the investor would be net of the Bata India Ltd Consumer Goods 1.83 dividend distribution tax, as applicable. Sterlite Industries (I) Ltd Metals 1.55 Bajaj Auto Ltd Automobile 1.54 Dish TV (I) Ltd Media & Entertainment 1.48 Strides Arcolab Ltd Pharma 1.41 SECTOR ALLOCATION Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd Industrial Manufacturing 1.36 Ashok Leyland Ltd Automobile 1.29 Suzlon Energy Ltd Industrial Manufacturing 1.29 LAA+ 0.04% Cairn India Ltd Energy 1.27 Textiles 0.60% Indraprastha Gas Ltd Energy 1.20 Fertilisers & Pesticides 0.91% Indusind Bank Ltd Financial Services 1.17 Media & Entertainment 1.48% GAIL (I) Ltd Energy 1.16 Unrated 2.02% Tata Steel Ltd Metals 1.13 Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd Energy 1.09 Telecom 2.67% Axis Bank Ltd Financial Services 0.92 Construction 2.82% United Phosphorous Ltd Fertilisers & Pesticides 0.91 Cash & Equivalent 3.43% Hindustan Zinc Ltd Metals 0.78 Industrial Manufacturing 4.87% Yes Bank Ltd Financial Services 0.77 Pharma 6.16% Indian Bank Financial Services 0.65 Grasim Industries Ltd Textiles 0.60 Metals 7.31% Hindalco Industries Ltd Metals 0.58 Consumer Goods 8.47% Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd Financial Services 0.57 Automobile 8.59% MOIL Ltd Metals 0.49 Energy 12.32% Petronet LNG Ltd Energy 0.47 IT 15.28% Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd Pharma 0.45 Financial Services 23.03% Bajaj Electricals Ltd Consumer Goods 0.32 Total 94.51 DEBT INSTRUMENTS 4.01 Times^ Listed / awaiting listing on the stock exchanges PORTFOLIO TURNOVER RATIO - Dr.
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