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2019 Technology Outlook

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2019 Technology Outlook Global Information Technology 7 January 2019 2019 Technology Outlook A year of new leadership We see 2 milestones in 2019: 1) BigData/IoT overtaking MCD in revenue terms, 2) 5G kicking off, helping boost the new demand cycle We expect compound-semiconductor makers to capture the most Rick Hsu incremental value from the 5G cellular upgrade (886) 2 8758 6261 We flag 4 secular themes for investment — bandwidth (5G/FO), HMI [email protected] (3D/multi-cam), AI and density — and 15 related stock picks Robert Hsu (886) 2 8758 6251 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 115 Global Information Technology 7 January 2019 2019 Technology Outlook A year of new leadership We see 2 milestones in 2019: 1) BigData/IoT overtaking MCD in revenue terms, 2) 5G kicking off, helping boost the new demand cycle We expect compound-semiconductor makers to capture the most Rick Hsu incremental value from the 5G cellular upgrade (886) 2 8758 6261 We flag 4 secular themes for investment — bandwidth (5G/FO), HMI [email protected] (3D/multi-cam), AI and density — and 15 related stock picks Robert Hsu (886) 2 8758 6251 [email protected] What's new: 2018 was the Year of the Dog for many tech stocks in Asia, with Daiwa’s 2019 tech picks the sector hit by turbulence caused by trade tensions, crypto volatility and Stock Ticker Rating TP* iPhone weakness, on top of investors’ inflated expectations. With expectations Bandwidth since reset, valuations rationalised, inventory manageable, and demand MediaTek 2454 TT Buy 280 Inari INRI MK Buy 2.25 diversified, 2019 should be a “refresh” year for investment with new demand SEMCO 009150 KS Buy 172,000 leadership. We expect the secular demand transition to be completed in 2019, Delta 2308 TT Buy 159 and flag a tipping point for 5G to kick off and help accelerate expansion of the LMO 3081 TT Buy 335 Murata 6981 JP Outperform 25,000 BigData/Internet of Things (IoT) market. Advantest 6857 JP Outperform 3,000 HMI What's the impact: Welcome to BigData/IoT. We see 2 milestones for the WinSemi 3105 TT Buy 195 sector in 2019: 1) after 4 years of transition post the smartphone demand Globetronics GTB MK Buy 3.00 Sony 6758 JP Buy 7,000 slowdown, we expect the BigData/IoT market to overtake mobile the computing Largan 3008 TT Buy 4,000 device (MCD) market in revenue terms for the first time, with demand strength Sunny Optical 2382 HK Buy 115 from datacentres that have spurred bandwidth, compute and density upgrades, AI TSMC 2330 TT Buy 266 along with the rise of IoT devices, and 2) the kick-off of 5G migration to ASE 3711 TT Buy 95 upgrade wireless bandwidth, triggered by telcos’ new capex, where we expect Density SEC 005930 KS Buy 54,000 this build-up cycle to be milder but last longer (p.27-31). Source: Daiwa forecasts * Target prices in local currency 5G the next big thing. As outlined in our thematic report (Let’s talk about 5G), we expect 2019 to be a tipping point for mobile communication to migrate to Global IT industry: evolving trend 5G cellular technology, largely benefiting the tech sector thanks to a revolutionary upgrade for wide spectrum coverage. 5G’s phased-array antenna design should be both unit- and ASP-accretive, with a greater value proposition from infrastructure base-stations than terminal-device smartphones, allowing BigData compound-semiconductor makers to capture the most incremental value on frequency expansion, followed by other supply-chain players which should benefit from materials, baseband, fibre-optic (FO) and power system upgrades Mobile (p.32-36). Computing Secular themes likely to shine. Since we believe we are in the BigData/IoT Mobile cycle for the data economy, we centre our 2019 investment picks on 4 secular Comm trends that we expect to benefit from new and replacement demand for growth: PC 1) Bandwidth: 5G for wireless and FO for wireline data transmission, 2) Human machine interface (HMI): 3D lasers and multiple cameras to enhance data access, 3) Artificial Intelligence (AI): high-performance computing No Capital Markets and Services Licence has been issued by the Malaysian Securities Commission to any member of Daiwa (HPC) for cloud and edge computing of datacentres and terminal devices, and Capital Markets and accordingly this report and any part of its 4) Density: memory devices to see a sustained upturn despite a likely mid- content may not be distributed or made available by any means within Malaysia. cycle correction (p.37-44). What we recommend: We cherry-pick 15 stocks in Pan Asia which fit into our 4 themes. See table to the right for a quick summary and the content inside for details of our investment theses. How we differ: We do not expect a downturn in the tech sector, based on our positive stance on the secular demand transition and 5G kicking off. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 115 2019 Technology Outlook: 7 January 2019 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg AAC Technologies 2018 HK 41.05 Hold Hold 60.00 60.00 0.0% 3.627 3.627 0.0% 4.036 4.036 0.0% Adlink Technology 6166 TT 31.35 Underperform Underperform 45.00 45.00 0.0% 1.771 1.771 0.0% 2.185 2.185 0.0% Advantech 2395 TT 214.00 Outperform Outperform 240.00 240.00 0.0% 9.009 9.009 0.0% 9.840 9.840 0.0% Airtac International Group 1590 TT 292.00 Hold Hold 260.00 260.00 0.0% 14.438 14.438 0.0% 16.354 16.354 0.0% ASE Technology Holding 3711 TT 56.00 Buy Buy 95.00 95.00 0.0% 3.731 3.731 0.0% 6.658 6.658 0.0% ASUSTeK Computer 2357 TT 204.00 Underperform Underperform 195.00 195.00 0.0% 12.751 12.751 0.0% 18.767 18.767 0.0% Casetek Holdings 5264 TT 43.00 Hold Hold 43.50 43.50 0.0% (4.380) (4.380) n.a. 4.139 4.139 0.0% Catcher Technology 2474 TT 215.00 Hold Hold 230.00 230.00 0.0% 38.182 38.182 0.0% 29.213 29.213 0.0% Delta Electronics 2308 TT 130.00 Buy Buy 159.00 159.00 0.0% 6.739 6.739 0.0% 8.064 8.064 0.0% Ennoconn 6414 TT 247.00 Buy Buy 428.00 428.00 0.0% 15.810 15.810 0.0% 20.174 20.174 0.0% FIH Mobile 2038 HK 0.82 Hold Hold 1.20 1.20 0.0% (0.072) (0.072) n.a. (0.029) (0.029) n.a. General Interface Solution 6456 TT 86.20 Hold Hold 108.00 108.00 0.0% 11.528 11.528 0.0% 11.247 11.247 0.0% Hiwin Technologies Corp 2049 TT 210.00 Underperform Underperform 178.00 178.00 0.0% 19.362 19.362 0.0% 12.401 12.401 0.0% Hon Hai Precision Industry 2317 TT 68.90 Hold Hold 81.70 81.70 0.0% 7.170 7.170 0.0% 8.931 8.931 0.0% HTC Corp 2498 TT 36.10 Sell Sell 38.00 38.00 0.0% 17.041 17.041 0.0% (8.777) (8.777) n.a. LandMark Optoelectronics 3081 TT 250.00 Buy Buy 335.00 345.00 (2.9%) 7.726 7.732 (0.1%) 12.388 13.462 (8.0%) Largan Precision 3008 TT 3,030.00 Buy Buy 4,000.00 4,000.00 0.0% 181.280 181.280 0.0% 222.002 222.002 0.0% Lenovo Group 992 HK 5.12 Hold Hold 5.60 5.60 0.0% 0.042 0.042 0.0% 0.055 0.055 0.0% LG Display 034220 KS 17,800 Outperform Outperform 20,000 20,000 0.0% (682) (682) n.a. (231) (231) n.a. LG Electronics 066570 KS 62,900 Buy Buy 90,000 90,000 0.0% 8,883 8,883 0.0% 9,869 9,869 0.0% LG Innotek 011070 KS 81,700 Outperform Outperform 158,000 158,000 0.0% 7,159 7,159 0.0% 12,564 12,564 0.0% MediaTek 2454 TT 223.50 Buy Buy 280.00 310.00 (9.7%) 13.421 13.699 (2.0%) 16.119 18.816 (14.3%) Novatek Microelectronics 3034 TT 134.00 Outperform Outperform 150.00 150.00 0.0% 10.020 10.020 0.0% 11.592 11.592 0.0% Pegatron Corp 4938 TT 49.60 Hold Hold 56.00 56.00 0.0% 5.206 5.206 0.0% 6.212 6.212 0.0% Quanta Computer 2382 TT 52.50 Hold Hold 52.00 52.00 0.0% 3.956 3.956 0.0% 4.153 4.153 0.0% Realtek Semiconductor 2379 TT 139.50 Underperform Underperform 115.00 115.00 0.0% 8.132 8.132 0.0% 8.719 8.719 0.0% Samsung Electro-Mechanics 009150 KS 94,000 Buy Buy 172,000 172,000 0.0% 8,881 8,881 0.0% 13,039 13,039 0.0% Samsung Electronics 005930 KS 37,600 Buy Buy 54,000 54,000 0.0% 7,487 7,487 0.0% 5,822 5,822 0.0% Samsung SDI 006400 KS 203,000 Buy Buy 355,000 355,000 0.0% 12,935 12,935 0.0% 18,985 18,985 0.0% Semiconductor Manufacturing Int'l Corp 981 HK 6.43 Hold Hold 6.55 6.55 0.0% 0.024 0.024 0.0% 0.011 0.011 0.0% SK Hynix 000660 KS 57,700 Buy Buy 90,000 90,000 0.0% 22,549 22,549 0.0% 16,603 16,603 0.0% Sunny Optical Technology 2382 HK 61.40 Buy Buy 115.00 115.00 0.0% 2.755 2.755 0.0% 4.002 4.002 0.0% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2330 TT 215.50 Buy Buy 266.00 266.00 0.0% 13.482 13.482 0.0% 15.107 15.107 0.0% TPK 3673 TT 46.60 Sell Sell 43.00 43.00 0.0% 2.037 2.037 0.0% 1.942 1.942 0.0% TXC Corp 3042 TT 32.30 Hold Hold 33.00 33.00 0.0% 2.041 2.041 0.0% 2.640 2.640 0.0% United Microelectronics 2303 TT 10.90 Underperform Underperform 11.80 11.80 0.0% 0.788 0.788 0.0% 0.676 0.676 0.0% Voltronic Power Technology 6409 TT 534.00 Hold Hold 528.00 528.00 0.0% 22.066 22.066 0.0% 23.252 23.252 0.0% Win Semiconductors 3105 TT 114.00 Buy Buy 195.00 195.00 0.0% 6.673 6.729 (0.8%) 7.746 7.812 (0.8%) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts, Prices as of 3 January, 2019.
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