Daily Maps: Tonga, Fiji

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Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – ECHO Daily Map | 16/02/2016 Tonga, Fiji – Tropical Cyclone WINSTON SITUATION ACCUMULATION RAINFALL 9-15 FEBRUARY (NASA) • Tropical Cyclone (TC) WINSTON moved close to Ona-i-Liau and Vatoa islands (Fiji) in the afternoon of 15 Feb, with max. sustained winds of 80-100 km/h; then it (Pop. 187 800) passed northwest of the Ha’apai group of islands. In the morning of 16 Feb, it was moving close to Vava’u islands, with max. (Pop. 12 200) (Pop. 55 500) sustained winds of 100 km/h. • Over the next 48 h it is forecast to continue moving northeast-east, strengthening. It may start turning south on 19 Feb and then towards west on 21 Feb; however the uncertainty of the forecast track and Legend intensity after 18 Feb is still very high. <VALUE> • According to this forecast, heavy rains and (Pop. 1 200) 100 200 300 400 500 mm strong winds may still affect Vava'u and Ha'apai group of islands (Tonga), as well < 100 mm > 500 mm as Niue island, during the next four days. 100 - 200200 mm - 300300 mm - 400400 mm - 500 mm 17 Feb 6.00 UTC 130 km/h sust. winds • Heavy rains have already been affecting the 19 Feb 6.00 UTC Ha'apai group of islands. Local media report 176 km/h sust. winds minor damages in Tongatapu and Ha'apai 16 Feb 18.00 UTC islands (Tonga), as well as in Lau islands 120 km/h sust. winds (Fiji), due to floods, as of 16 Feb. Sources: GDACS, JTWC, Fiji Met. Service, Vanuatu Meteorological Services, WMO, Geohive, Media 16 Feb, 6.00 UTC 102 km/h sust. winds SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL C YCLONE SEASON 21 Feb 6.00 UTC • From 1 Nov to 30 April 167 km/h sust. winds 16 Feb, 0.00 UTC 74 mm 83 km/h sust. winds TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA – JANUARY 2016 • TC ULA moved between Tonga and Fiji islands (Pop. 14 900) on 1 – 3 Jan 2016, with max. sustained winds of the order of 160-170 km/h. It affected Tonga 192 mm (Pop. 1 600) (especially Vava’u islands) and Fiji (especially Lau islands) with strong winds and heavy rains. (Pop. 880 000) (Pop. 249) Media reported floods and a number of damaged houses in Fiji and in some areas of Tonga. 53 mm (Pop. 6 600) Sources: GDACS, Media (Pop. 470) 15 Feb, 12.00 UTC 78 mm 93 km/h sust. winds (Pop. 103 200) The uncertainty of the forecast track and (Pop. 75 400) intensity after 18 Feb is still very high 1 Jan, 6.00UTC 170 km/h TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 Jan, 6.00UTC 24h acc. rain obs. (max. sustained winds) 160 km/h xx mm on 15-16 Feb > 118 km/h (WMO) 63-118 km/h < 63 km/h Floods (media) 15 Feb, 0.00 UTC 111 km/h sust. winds WIND BUFFER Heavy rains >118 km/h 92-118 km/h Tropical Cyclone 3 Jan, 18..00UTC 64-92 km/h Track uncertainty 160 km/h .

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South Pacific Ocean – Tropical Cyclone ULA Ï
Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – ECHO Daily Map | 08/01/2016 South Pacific Ocean Legend– Tropical Cyclone ULA Week rainfall (TRMM) TROPICAL CYCLONE LastValue 7 days acc. 30 Dec, 6.00 UTC SITUATION Legend(max. sustained winds) rainfall< 100 (NASA) mm 83 km/h sust. winds Cyclones> 118 Trackkm/h points 100 - 200 mm • Tropical Cyclone ULA formed over WIND_SPEED 63-118 km/h 200 - 300 mm (Pop. 187 800) the South Pacific Ocean on 30 Ï <0.000000 63 km/h - 17.000000 300 - 400 mm December 2015 and moved south- WIND BUFFER > 400 mm southwest, strengthening. It passed Ï 17.000001 - 32.500000 (Pop. 55 500) close to Vava'u islands (Tonga) on 1 >118 km/h Floods 92-118 km/h (Pop. 12 200) January 2016, with max. sustained 32.500001 - 69.000000 Ï 64-92 km/h Track uncertainty winds of 140 km/h and close to Lau Islands (Fiji) on 2-3 January, with Ï 69.000001 - 100.000000 max. sust. winds of 160-170 km/h. • Heavy rainfall and strong winds (Pop. 880 000) affected Fiji and Tonga during its 1 Jan, 18.00 UTC passage. Media reported minor 140 km/h sust. winds damage and evacuations in Tonga, 2 Jan, 18.00 UTC 167 km/h sust. winds as well as floods and damage in 8 Jan, 6.00 UTC 31 Dec, 18.00 UTC 102 km/h sust. winds some areas of Fiji. 9 Jan 18.00 UTC 167 km/h sust. winds (Pop. 283 000) • In the morning of 8 January, TC ULA 120 km/h sust.
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Tropical Cyclone Ula - Estimated Impacts Warning 22, 09JAN16 2100 UTC PDC - 06P - 22A [JTWC] Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC ULA IS ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR TAU 24, TC 06P WILL REACH THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN POLEWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. Estimated Tropical Cyclone Wind Impacts Tropical Cyclone Positions Ï Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Vanuatu Ï ¯ Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Ï Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph Ï Ï Tropical Depression: <39 mph Ï )"Ï Current Storm Position 22SEP13 - 1800UTC Est.
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Hungry for Justice, Thirsty for Change CARITAS STATE of the ENVIRONMENT REPORT for OCEANIA 2016 Taveuni, Fiji
Hungry for justice, thirsty for change CARITAS STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT REPORT FOR OCEANIA 2016 Wani Filipe ties climbing beans at Tutu Rural Training Centre, Taveuni, Fiji. CARITAS Hungry for justice, thirsty for change CARITAS STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT REPORT FOR OCEANIA 2016 Monū’ia ā ka ko kinautolu ‘oku fie kaia mo fie inua ki he mā’oni’oní, he ’e faka makona ‘a kinautolu. Ka hoa te hunga e hiakai ana, e hiainu ana ki te tika; ka mākona hoki rātou. Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for justice, for they will be satisfied. MATTHEW/MATIU 5:6 FEAST OF ST FRANCIS OF ASSISI 4 October 2016 Tutu ana te puehu Stirring up the dust Caritas Aotearoa New Zealand Caritas Tonga Caritas Australia PO Box 12193 Catholic Diocese of GPO Box 9830 Thorndon, Wellington 6144 Tonga and Niue Sydney, NSW 2001 Aotearoa New Zealand PO Box 1, Vaololoa Australia www.caritas.org.nz Nuku’alofa, Tonga www.caritas.org.au © Caritas Aotearoa New Zealand, Caritas Tonga and Caritas Australia Lead research and writing: Martin de Jong Writers and researchers: Amelia Ma’afu, Sarah Marland, Petra Wheatley Oversight and editing: Lisa Beech, Brendan Joyce Editing and proofing: Johanna Knox Design: Rose Miller Cover photo: Teriba of Nusabaruka, Gizo, Solomon Islands drinks water from a Caritas water project in response to the El Niño drought. The project had funding support from the New Zealand Aid Programme. Photo: Julianne Hickey. Staff assistance and photography: Crispin Anderlini, Cathy Bi, Dominic Boana, Nick Borthwick, Benjamin Breen, Nicole Clements, Sascha Costigan, Roger Ellis, Julianne Hickey, Stephanie Lalor, Mary Malagela, Mark Mitchell, Joe Moeono-Kolio, Patrice Moriarty, Paul O’Callaghan, Carl O’Sullivan, Anna Robertson-Bate, Murray Shearer, Joanna Viernes, Br Adrian Watson, Zachary Wone, Zhi Yan.
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Dear Friends
REPORT 2016 Dear friends, 33 degrees Celsius, 93 Fahrenheit, summer in the South Pacific and somebody is dreaming of a White Christmas, time to write our report for this year. After our extensive travels last year, see Report 2015 , we had planned to stay here and tend to house and garden. The last cyclone season from November 2015 to April 2016 was characterized by a very strong El Nino effect, the predictions were for more and stronger cyclones to occure in Tonga, but until the end of the last year everything stayed calm. All our neighbors on the island were gone, the dog, cats and chickens crowding around us. We had a quiet Christmas and New Year's Eve, but on the first day of 2016 cyclone ULA approached and was supposed to pass by Vava'u with up to 115 knots (200 km/h-125mph). We put on the cyclone shutters, brought the boat into the sheltered Hunga Lagoon, took down the solar panels and secured everything. In the night, the storm passed through with howling winds and a lot of rain, but only a few old trees came down and some banana plants, no major damages. The next two weeks passed by with the usual activities in house and garden. It was pretty hot, which limited our activities somewhat, spiders and heron were still busy. On Thursday, January 14., we went into town to get supplies, in the evening we watched a movie at home. Then I noticed colorful flashes in my right eye when I moved my head fast.
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The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands
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Cesifo Working Paper No. 6220 Category 10: Energy and Climate Economics November 2016
At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands Tauisi Taupo Ilan Noy CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 6220 CATEGORY 10: ENERGY AND CLIMATE ECONOMICS NOVEMBER 2016 An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the RePEc website: www.RePEc.org • from the CESifo website: www.CESifoT -group.org/wpT ISSN 2364-1428 CESifo Working Paper No. 6220 At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands Abstract The intensity of cyclones in the Pacific is predicted to increase and sea levels are predicted to rise, so an atoll nation like Tuvalu can serve as the ‘canary in the mine’ pointing to the new risks that are emerging because of climatic change. Based on a household survey we conducted in Tuvalu, we quantify the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Pam (March 2015) on households, and the determinants of these impacts in terms of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and responsiveness. Households experienced significant damage due to the storm surge caused by the cyclone, even if the cyclone itself passed very far away (about a 1000km). This risk of distant cyclones has been overlooked in the literature, and ignoring it leads to significant under-estimation of the disaster risk facing low-lying atoll islands. Lastly, we constructed hypothetical policy scenarios, and calculated the estimated loss and damage they would have been associated with – a first step in building careful assessments of the feasibility of various disaster risk reduction policies. Keywords: cyclone, Tuvalu, impact.
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Pacific ENSO Update Page 16
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TC Ula Media Release 3.Pdf
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The Tropics—H
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