South Pacific Ocean – Tropical Cyclone ULA Ï

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South Pacific Ocean – Tropical Cyclone ULA Ï

Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – ECHO Daily Map | 08/01/2016 South Pacific Ocean Legend– Tropical Cyclone ULA Week rainfall (TRMM) TROPICAL CYCLONE LastValue 7 days acc. 30 Dec, 6.00 UTC SITUATION Legend(max. sustained winds) rainfall< 100 (NASA) mm 83 km/h sust. winds Cyclones> 118 Trackkm/h points 100 - 200 mm • Tropical Cyclone ULA formed over WIND_SPEED 63-118 km/h 200 - 300 mm (Pop. 187 800) the South Pacific Ocean on 30 Ï <0.000000 63 km/h - 17.000000 300 - 400 mm December 2015 and moved south- WIND BUFFER > 400 mm southwest, strengthening. It passed Ï 17.000001 - 32.500000 (Pop. 55 500) close to Vava'u islands (Tonga) on 1 >118 km/h Floods 92-118 km/h (Pop. 12 200) January 2016, with max. sustained 32.500001 - 69.000000 Ï 64-92 km/h Track uncertainty winds of 140 km/h and close to Lau Islands (Fiji) on 2-3 January, with Ï 69.000001 - 100.000000 max. sust. winds of 160-170 km/h. • Heavy rainfall and strong winds (Pop. 880 000) affected Fiji and Tonga during its 1 Jan, 18.00 UTC passage. Media reported minor 140 km/h sust. winds damage and evacuations in Tonga, 2 Jan, 18.00 UTC 167 km/h sust. winds as well as floods and damage in 8 Jan, 6.00 UTC 31 Dec, 18.00 UTC 102 km/h sust. winds some areas of Fiji. 9 Jan 18.00 UTC 167 km/h sust. winds (Pop. 283 000) • In the morning of 8 January, TC ULA 120 km/h sust. winds was moving west-southwest, away from Fiji, with max. sustained winds Erromango of 100 km/h. Aniwa • Over the next 48 h, TC ULA is Lau (Pop. 14 900) Archipelago forecast to move south-west, and its Tanna Futuna Vatoa (Pop. 249) (Pop. 1 600) center may pass approx. 100 km south-east of Aneityum (Vanuatu) in Aneityum Ona-i- the morning of 10 January, with Llau (Pop. 470) (Pop. 900) max. sustained winds of 120 km/h. Then it is forecast to continue 10 Jan 6.00 UTC moving south, over the South Pacific 120 km/h sust. winds Ocean, weakening and dissipating. 3 Jan, 06.00 UTC (Pop. 103 200) 157 km/h sust. winds • On 9-10 January, heavy rains and winds may affect central and southern Vanuatu. Sources: GDACS, JTWC, BOM, UN OCHA, Fiji Meteorological Service, Vanuatu Meteorological Services, WMO, Geohive, Media (Pop. 268 700) SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON • From 1 Nov to 30 April ABOVE / BELOW - AVERAGE RAINFALL 11 Jan 6.00 UTC 6-12 JAN 2016 «GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARDS OUTLOOK» RELEVANT TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE AREA 111 km/h sust. winds (2014 – 2016) 16 1 12 12 Jan 6.00 UTC Rainfall 83 km/h sust. winds 13 Jan Above-average * 6.00 UTC Below-average * * Weekly total rainfall in the upper / Total Source: NOAA lower third of the historical range Dead .

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Tropical Cyclone Ula - Estimated Impacts Warning 22, 09JAN16 2100 UTC PDC - 06P - 22A [JTWC] Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC ULA IS ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR TAU 24, TC 06P WILL REACH THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN POLEWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. Estimated Tropical Cyclone Wind Impacts Tropical Cyclone Positions Ï Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Vanuatu Ï ¯ Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Ï Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph Ï Ï Tropical Depression: <39 mph Ï )"Ï Current Storm Position 22SEP13 - 1800UTC Est.
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