Election Forecasting
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'Pinkoes Traitors'
‘PINKOES AND TRAITORS’ The BBC and the nation, 1974–1987 JEAN SEATON PROFILE BOOKS First published in Great Britain in !#$% by Pro&le Books Ltd ' Holford Yard Bevin Way London ()$* +,- www.pro lebooks.com Copyright © Jean Seaton !#$% The right of Jean Seaton to be identi&ed as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright Designs and Patents Act $++/. All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the publisher of this book. A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN +4/ $ /566/ 545 6 eISBN +4/ $ /546% +$6 ' All reasonable e7orts have been made to obtain copyright permissions where required. Any omissions and errors of attribution are unintentional and will, if noti&ed in writing to the publisher, be corrected in future printings. Text design by [email protected] Typeset in Dante by MacGuru Ltd [email protected] Printed and bound in Britain by Clays, Bungay, Su7olk The paper this book is printed on is certi&ed by the © $++6 Forest Stewardship Council A.C. (FSC). It is ancient-forest friendly. The printer holds FSC chain of custody SGS-COC-!#6$ CONTENTS List of illustrations ix Timeline xvi Introduction $ " Mrs Thatcher and the BBC: the Conservative Athene $5 -
Are Swing Voters Instruments of Democracy Or Farmers of Clientelism? Evidence from Ghana
= = = = = = = = Are Swing Voters Instruments of Democracy or Farmers of Clientelism? Evidence from Ghana Staffan I. Lindberg Keith R. Weghorst = = = = QoG WORKING PAPER SERIES 2010:17= = THE QUALITY OF GOVERNMENT INSTITUTE Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg Box 711 SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG June 2010 ISSN 1653-8919 © 2010 by Staffan I. Lindberg and Keith R. Weghorst. All rights reserved. The authors wishes to acknowledge insightful comments on earlier version from Leonardo Arriola, Dominic Lisanti, Kristin Michelitch, and participants in both the Comparative Politics Colloquium at University of Florida and the Quality of Government workshop at Marstrand 17-19 May, 2010. The survey was carried out in collaboration with research officers at Center for Democratic Development-Ghana and we also wish to recognize the excellent work by the 49 assistants we trained for the field work during summer 2008. The research project was sponsored by the Africa Power and Politics Programme, with funding provided by the UK Department for International Development (DFID). As always, the content, errors, omissions, and flaws of the text is the responsibility of the authors. Are Swing Voters Instruments of Democracy or Farmers of Clientelism? Evidence from Ghana Staffan I. Lindberg Keith R. Weghorst QoG Working Paper Series 2010:17 June 2010 ISSN 1653-8919 Abstract: This paper is one of the first to systematically address the question of whether strength of ethnic identity, political parties’ candidates campaign strategies, poverty, or evaluation of clientelism versus collective/public goods, determines who becomes persuadable voters (swing voters) in new democracies. It brings together three of the major research streams in comparative politics – the literatures on development, democracy, and political clientelism – to properly situate the swing voter as – potentially – the pivotal instrument of democracy and antidote to the public goods deficit in failed developmental states. -
The Election
Forecast error: what’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election? By Timothy Martyn Hill [originally published at significancemagazine.com] When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it seemed like a smart move politically. Her Conservative Party was riding high in the opinion polls, with a YouGov poll in the Times giving them 44%, a lead of 21 points over her nearest rivals, the Labour Party[0514a]. Were an election to be held the next day (as surveys often suppose[0514b]) May looked to be on course for a convincing win and an increased majority in the House of Commons. But then came the obvious question: “Can we actually trust the polls?” The media seemed sceptical. Though they had not shied away from reporting poll results in the months since the 2015 general election, they were clearly still sore about the errors made last time, when survey results mostly indicated the country was heading for a hung parliament. So, can we trust the polls this time around? It’s not possible to say until we have election results to compare them to. But what we can do is consider the work that’s been done to try to fix whatever went wrong in 2015. There’s a lot to cover, so I’ve broken the story up by key dates and periods: • The election – 7 May 2015 • The reaction – 8-10 May • The suspects • Early speculation – 11 May-18 June • The Sturgis inquiry meets – 19 June • The investigation focuses – 20 June-31 December • Unrepresentative samples indicted – 1 January-30 March 2016 • The Sturgis inquiry report – 31 March • A heated debate – 1 April-22 June • EU referendum and reaction – 23 June-19 July • US presidential election and reaction – 20 July-31 December • The calm before the storm – 8 December 2016-18 April 2017 • Have the polls been fixed? The election – 7 May 2015 The night before the 2015 General Election, the atmosphere was tense but calm. -
New Approaches to Understanding the Role and Effect of UK Party Leaders in General Elections
How leaders matter: new approaches to understanding the role and effect of UK party leaders in general elections Thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements of the University of Liverpool for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy by Peter Andersen. October 2020 Table of Contents List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... 3 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ 5 Abstract .................................................................................................................................... 6 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 8 Chapter 1 : Introduction ........................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2 : Reviewing the Literature on Leaders: Evaluations, Elections and Effects ........... 23 Chapter 3 : Research Design, Methods and Approach ........................................................... 59 Chapter 4 : Fluid or Stable? Leadership Evaluations During a Turbulent Period of British Politics (2014-17) ................................................................................................................... 85 Chapter 5 : Party Leaders and Campaigns: Masters of Persuasion? .................................... 126 Chapter 6 : From Footnotes to Headliners: -
Conclusion: an Election That Satisfied Few and Solved Little
This is a repository copy of Conclusion: An Election that Satisfied Few and Solved Little. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/137841/ Version: Accepted Version Article: Tonge, J, Leston-Bandeira, C orcid.org/0000-0002-6131-4607 and Wilks-Heeg, S (2018) Conclusion: An Election that Satisfied Few and Solved Little. Parliamentary Affairs, 71 (suppl_1). pp. 267-276. ISSN 0031-2290 https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsx069 © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Hansard Society; all rights reserved. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Parliamentary Affairs following peer review. The version of record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsx069 Reuse Items deposited in White Rose Research Online are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved unless indicated otherwise. They may be downloaded and/or printed for private study, or other acts as permitted by national copyright laws. The publisher or other rights holders may allow further reproduction and re-use of the full text version. This is indicated by the licence information on the White Rose Research Online record for the item. Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing [email protected] including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. [email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ Conclusion: An Election that Satisfied Few and Solved Little Jonathan Tonge, Cristina Leston-Bandeira and Stuart Wilks-Heeg Rarely can a partial election victory have felt so akin to a defeat for a party. -
The Mountain to Climb: Labour's 2020 Challenge Andrew Harrop May 2015
The mountain to climb: Labour’s 2020 challenge Andrew Harrop May 2015 Fabian Society 61 Petty France London SW1H 9EU www.fabians.org.uk This paper, like all publications of the Fabian Society, represents not the collective views of the Society but only the views of the author. This publication may not be reproduced without express permission of the Fabian Society. - 1 - Key points Labour will need to win at least 106 seats in 2020 to secure a majority, after taking account of the forthcoming boundary changes. The electoral swing required in marginal seats to win a majority will be over twice that which Labour needed for victory in 2015. This assumes a similar rate of progress in England/Wales and in Scotland; if Labour makes no gains in Scotland, the party would need to perform better in England and Wales than at any time since 1997. Around 4 out of 5 of the extra (net) votes Labour will need to gain in English and Welsh marginals will have to come direct from Conservative voters (in 2015 this figure was around 1 out of 5, because of the Lib Dem meltdown). ‘English Votes for English Laws’ no longer poses a separate challenge to Labour, over and above the task of winning a UK majority. It is actually slightly easier for Labour to win a majority of English seats than of UK seats. But an anti-Tory alliance led by Labour would find it harder to achieve a majority in England (under EVEL) than across the UK. An alliance of parties could achieve a UK majority by gaining 38 seats but would need to gain 71 seats for an English majority. -
And Fringe Parties
The University of Manchester Research 'Third' and fringe parties Document Version Accepted author manuscript Link to publication record in Manchester Research Explorer Citation for published version (APA): Morgan, K. (2018). 'Third' and fringe parties. In D. Brown, G. Pentland, & R. Crowcroft (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Modern British Political History, 1800-2000 (Oxford Handbooks). Oxford University Press. Published in: The Oxford Handbook of Modern British Political History, 1800-2000 Citing this paper Please note that where the full-text provided on Manchester Research Explorer is the Author Accepted Manuscript or Proof version this may differ from the final Published version. If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the Research Explorer are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Takedown policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please refer to the University of Manchester’s Takedown Procedures [http://man.ac.uk/04Y6Bo] or contact [email protected] providing relevant details, so we can investigate your claim. Download date:27. Sep. 2021 ‘Third’ and fringe parties Kevin Morgan As for the first time in the 1950s millions gathered round their television sets on election night, a new device was unveiled to picture for them the way that things were going. This was the famous swingometer, affably manipulated by Canadian pundit Bob McKenzie, and it represented the contest of Britain’s two great tribes of Labour and Conservatives as a simple oscillating movement between one election and another. -
Mind the Gap: How the Ethnic Minority Vote Cost Theresa May Her Majority
Mind the gap: How the ethnic minority vote cost Theresa May her majority Sunder Katwala and Steve Ballinger September 2017 Published September 2017 by: British Future Kean House 6 Kean Street London WC2B 4AS Authors: Sunder Katwala and Steve Ballinger Editor: Steve Ballinger Design: Laura Dias Additional research by Laura Dias About British Future: British Future is an independent, non-partisan thinktank engaging people’s hopes and fears about integration and migration, opportunity and identity, so that we share a confident and welcoming Britain, inclusive and fair to all. www.britishfuture.org Tel. +44 (0)20 7632 9069 Twitter: @BritishFuture 2 British Future / Mind the gap: How the ethnic minority vote cost Theresa May her majority Contents 1. Introduction: Mind the gap 4 2. The 2017 General Election: how much is known about the ethnic minority vote? 8 3. How the ethnic vote gap influenced the 2017 General Election outcome 11 4. Block vote or up for grabs? Are ethnic minority voters becoming floating voters? 16 5. Who are the different ethnic minority voter ‘tribes’? 21 6. Conclusion: The One Nation challenge 24 Notes 30 About British Future 31 3 British Future / Mind the gap: How the ethnic minority vote cost Theresa May her majority 1. Introduction: Mind the gap Theresa May called the snap General Election of June 2017 intending to increase the Conservative majority in the House of Commons. The plan failed: the Conservatives failed to gain most of the seats that they were targeting in England and Wales, and suffered unexpected losses to the Labour Party. The Conservatives went into the General Election with 330 seats and a working majority of 17 seats; they came out of it with just 318 seats, 8 seats short of a majority at all. -
Parliamentary Debates (Hansard)
Wednesday Volume 598 15 July 2015 No. 34 HOUSE OF COMMONS OFFICIAL REPORT PARLIAMENTARY DEBATES (HANSARD) Wednesday 15 July 2015 £5·00 © Parliamentary Copyright House of Commons 2015 This publication may be reproduced under the terms of the Open Parliament licence, which is published at www.parliament.uk/site-information/copyright/. 873 15 JULY 2015 874 Angus Robertson (Moray) (SNP): The UK Government House of Commons are planning to restrict child benefit to two children for new parents. The Department for Work and Pensions Wednesday 15 July 2015 and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs have in the Budget been asked to “develop protections for women who have a third child as a result The House met at half-past Eleven o’clock of rape, or other exceptional circumstances.” Can the Minister explain how that will work? PRAYERS Mr Gauke: The point I would make to the hon. Gentleman is that we think it is right that all families face the same situation, having to make choices bearing [MR SPEAKER in the Chair] in mind the financial consequences of the number of children they have. It is right that a regime is put in place for exceptional circumstances. If the hon. Gentleman Oral Answers to Questions does not want to restrict tax credits to two children per family in future, he will be able to bring in top-ups paid for by the Scottish taxpayer under the powers provided SCOTLAND in the Scotland Bill. Angus Robertson: Rape is one of the most serious The Secretary of State was asked— crimes and has one of the poorest clear-up rates. -
Popular Vote and Elections: the Role of the Election Methods and Polls in an Agent-Base Simulation Framework
Popular vote and elections: the role of the election methods and polls in an Agent-Base Simulation framework Econophysics Course 2018 Davide Fallara Dipartimento di Fisica Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Fisica dei Sistemi Complessi Università degli studi di Torino Anno accademico 2017/18 1 Abstract The aim of this work is to simulate the parties rally of a small state divided in constituency, how dierent election methods change the nal outcome and how the poll may interfere with the results, in order to do that we have develop a simulation in NetLogo. There are dierent set of data related to dierent election already held as inputs, this model not only show the dynamics of the opinions amongs the electorate, but also try to emphasize the pros and cons of some dierent electoral system as First Past the Post, Proportional and Winner Takes All. There is also a discussion about Poll's Bias, and how to estimate it. The agents have dierent properties that try to simulate some psychological eects as herd eect and conrmation bias, there is also a tentative to simulate the fact that the people may lie to the polling rm. 2 Introduction When you want to model society and social behavior the main issue is that you want to represent something that usually it's uncountable, especially when you refer to the politics, that is always a slippery eld. An old school approach, based on equation will be not only dicult, but also almost impossible to implement, so a new kind of approach that is becoming quite classic it's ABM or Agent-Base Modeling. -
Politics Revision Guide Uk Government and Politics
POLITICS REVISION GUIDE UK GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS Contents UK Politics Topic 1- Democracy and Participation • Key ideas in Politics o What is Politics? o What is power? o What is authority? • Forms and functions of democracy? • Development of the franchise • Participation • Is there a participation crisis? • Rights and Responsibilities • Is the UK a liberal democracy? • How do different groups vote? • Explaining voter choice • Election case studies Topic 2- Elections and Direct Democracy • Functions of elections • Elections in the UK • Types of electoral systems • Positives and negatives of different electoral systems • Referendums • Types of referendums • Should we use more referendums? Topic 3- Political Parties • Introduction and roles of political parties • Ideologies and Party Systems • Conservatives • Labour • Minor Parties • Ideological Convergence • Party Finance • Are parties still relevant? Topic 4- Pressure Groups • What are pressure groups? • Functions of pressure groups • Why are pressure groups important? • Why do people join pressure groups and why have they increased in number? • Classifying pressure groups • Pressure group methods • Direct Action • Factors influencing success • Pressure groups and pluralism • Are pressure groups good for democracy? Topic 5- The European Union • What is the EU? • Aims of the EU? • How has the UK seen the EU? • Key Institutions • Is there a democratic deficit? • EU Policy-making • The impact of the EU on UK politics UK Government Topic 1- The Constitution • Feature of the UK constitution -
London, United Kingdom 2020 Presidential Election Research Six
London, United Kingdom 2020 Presidential Election Research Six Swing States 7 September 2020 Methodology Arizona Pennsylvania Sample Size: 830 Sample Size: 1053 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 04.09.2020 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Margin of Error: 3.40% Margin of Error: 3.02% North Carolina Michigan Sample Size: 951 Sample Size: 967 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Margin of Error: 3.18% Margin of Error: 3.15% Florida Wisconsin Sample Size: 1093 Size: 670 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 04.09.2020 Margin of Error: 2.96% Margin of Error: 3.78% Interview Method: Online Web Survey (compatible with both computers & smartphones). Survey questions were available in English and Spanish. Populations Sampled: Representative samples of registered voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Sampling Method: Representative samples were selected through registered panel providers. Weighting: Data weighted according to the profile of adults (18+) in each state. Data weighted by age, gender, region, education level, race, and 2016 Presidential Election Vote. Targets for age, gender, education, and race were derived from the 2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.1 Targets for region based on the county-level estimates by the US Census; categorization of counties into regions our own.2 Targets for past vote were derived from the official results of the 2016 Presidential Election. Turnout Weighting: In order to